Impact of elections on the economy
THE election period in Pakistan is, in fact, a season of promises, some of them very strident. The more the political parties, the more the promises and the more coalition groups contesting the elections, far more the number of promises.
Elections in Pakistan are rare and few and the campaign period is usually limited to three months. At the end of the campaign, there is no certainty if the elections would take place at all. In the United States, the election campaign lasts for two years and since basically it is a non-partisan contest, the number of promises made by the candidates and their parties are a few in number.
The unusually large caretaker government, which keeps on expanding, has decided not to increase the POL rates despite the soaring world prices at least before the elections. President Musharraf is also reported to be not wanting higher POL prices as his first gift to the people after his re-election as president, this time as a civilian.
If the oil price is not raised officially, the government may lose Rs101 billion as revenues but may make up for that loss by charging the people sales tax on petroleum as well as development surcharge which will mobilise Rs90 billion. The consumer will be crushed in the process while the government may eventually walk off with a small liability after it chooses to raise prices at any time.
Simultaneously the proposed 21 per cent raise in power rates and five percent rise in gas rates are to be put off. It will be an awkward task for the newly elected government to come up with a heavy increase in the POL, power and gas rates with all their impact on inflation.
Meanwhile, the furnace oil price has been cut by Rs1035 per tonne and the LPG has been totally deregulated. There is speculation that the forthcoming Opec meeting in Dubai may decide to increase its oil output while noting the sustained fall in the exchange rate of the dollar which is used for trading oil. Meanwhile, the Gulf Cooperation Council has decided to introduce a common currency for the region from 2010 also for fixing prices of their oil.
Prices of cement, wheat, flour, oil and vanaspati have risen in the market along with many other edible items. There was fear that the next wheat crop may fall far short of the target and create a new crisis but the recent rains in the Barani areas have improved the situation.
Iran now wants increase in trade with Pakistan to reach a billion dollars. Turkey wants the same in the face of the small trade between the two friendly countries. The Afghan leaders have been talking of a billion dollar trade target for a long time. We should try to have greater trade with our neighbours instead of being content with the five billion dollar trade we expect in the wake of the FTA agreement with China.
Meanwhile Ms Benazir Bhutto, chairman of the PPP, has come up with a five-point election manifesto promising employment, education, energy, environment and equality. Along with that the old PPP commitment of Roti, Kapra, Makaan has been revived but more as a slogan than as a commitment. Providing jobs to the unemployed, particularly the young and educated, will cost a great deal of money but after the governments outlay on energy which has to be tremendous, little will be left for creating employment and promote education.
The government will have to rely a great deal on the private sector and revive its old strategy of public private partnership which it advocated but could not practise it. For promoting long term prospects of employment, large scale industries will have to be promoted along with SMEs and the system of micro credit on a large scale. The Shaukat Aziz government gave a free hand to the businessmen so that they could invest more and some of them responded to an extent. Some such policy will have to be followed by the new government.
PPPs commitments include employment for the educated young up to the graduate level, micro credit for five million persons and monetary relief for persons above sixty five years who have no income of their own. All this will cost a great deal of.
Foreign governments who are backing Benazir Bhutto as the voice of moderation will step up their aid if she comes to power. But the increase will not be much particularly for education as a good deal of money has been wasted in the manner education was promoted. So, she will have to generate more resources from within the country. At the moment the budgetary income is good, the revenue collection during the first five months of the new financial year exceeds the target by 12.5 per cent but as the industrialists wait for the new government to come in, the revenues can drop.
The PPP in achieving what it seeks or delivering what it promises depends on its ability to achieve high output with moderate input and to mobilise the private sector to perform its social role. But it is also for the businessmen to be realistic instead of hoping to make more money the easy way and the banks to thrive through consumer credit at high interest rates.
If the foreign investors are holding back their fresh investments, it is not surprising. It happens in every country on the eve of general elections or when there is a transition from the military set-up to a civilian regime.
Businessmen want to ensure whether pro-business policies of Musharraf would continue and that they would still have a free hand. But they must fulfil their social role in the country where 30 per cent of the people live below the poverty line of a dollar a day. Foreign investors are bound to be watchful during the transition period.
Meanwhile, the Shell group has opted out of the offshore project which was earlier welcomed by the government and the Dubai international authority has said it is no longer interested in the 450-500 MW power project located in a small town of Punjab.
Foreign investors had serious complaints about the judicial process in Pakistan. They hired the best lawyers when they had a case against the government or a private party but the judgments came too late and then they were not enforced often.
DAWN - Editorial; December 06, 2007