7.2 percent GDP likely in fiscal year 2008
FAISALABAD (September 29 2007): Economic Adviser's Wing of Finance Division has observed that the day is not far when Pakistan will be on the top rung of the ladder of prosperity and will become an economic power to reckon with.
In an Update Economic Performance Report, released here on Friday, Economic Adviser's Wing stated that "Economic Outlook/Forecast" for the current financial year 2007-08 on the basis of healthy macro-economic indicators remains extremely favourable.
Building on the same positive trajectory as last year, real GDP growth is expected to increase to 7.2 percent in 2007-08 ably supported by agriculture (4.8 percent) and large scale manufacturing (10.5 percent). Last year over all CPI based inflation averaged 7.8 percent, however inflation for this year has been targeted at 6.5 percent.
Investment has also been forecasted to increase to 23.5 percent of GDP as compared to last fiscal year's figure of 23.0 percent of GDP. On the external side of the accounts, current account was enumerated at 4.9 percent of GDP in 2006-07, this year it has been projected to decline to 4.7 percent of GDP.
Fiscal deficit on the other hand has been targeted to decline to 4.0 percent of GDP in the ongoing financial year as against 4.3 percent in 2006-07. As regards financing of budget deficit is concerned, the Government is expecting Rs 29 billion as grants.
Therefore, total financing requirements will be Rs 370 billion, of which Rs 220 billion will come from external sources. Within external financing Rs 113 billion is expected as privatisation proceeds. However, remaining Rs 147 billion will come from domestic sources, mentioned Economic Adviser's Wing Report.
According to EAW report, Pakistan's economy continues to gain traction as it experiences the longest spell of its strongest growth in years. The outcomes of the recently concluded fiscal year indicate that Pakistan's upbeat economic momentum remains on track. Economic growth accelerates to 7.0 percent in 2006-07 at the back of robust growth in agriculture, manufacturing and services. Economic growth has been notably stable and resilient.
With economic growth at 7.0 percent in 2006-07, Pakistan's real GDP has grown at an average rate of 7.0 percent per annum during the last five years (2003-07) and over 7.5 percent in the last four years (2004-07) in running. Compared with other emerging economies in Asia, this puts Pakistan as one of the fastest growing economies in the region along with China, India, and Vietnam.
The good performance has resulted from a combination of generally sound economic policies, on-going structural reforms and a benign international economic environment.
Based on the performance of half-a-decade of strong, stable, resilient and broad-based economic growth it appears that Pakistan's economy will continue to be a high mean, low variance economy over the medium-term. Pakistan is in the midst of its strongest economic expansion phase and its growth momentum is broad based. EAW report mentioned that all the three major sectors, namely, agriculture, industry and services have provided support to strong economic growth.
The commodity-producing sectors (agriculture and industry) contributed 2/5th and services sectors contributed remaining 3/5th to the real GDP growth of 7.0 percent in 2006-07. Within the commodity-producing sectors, the contribution of agriculture alone has been 15 percent (or 1.1 percentage point) while 25 percent (or 1.8 percentage point) contribution to 2006-07 growth came from industry.
Services sectors as a whole contributed almost 60 percent (or 4.2 percentage points) to FY07's strong economic growth. Current economic growth is mainly driven by strong domestic demand with investment taking lead over consumption for the first time in the last three years.
Net exports appear to have been a drag on overall growth in 2006-07. Almost 53 percent contribution to 2006-07's growth came from investment while consumption contributed 50 percent. Net exports contributed negatively to the extent of 3.0 percent. The last fiscal year's economic growth has benefited from higher consumption and investment demand owing to a growing middle class and favourable demographics.
Increased contribution of investment to growth is a healthy development as it will engender employment growth, which will support consumption demand and together they will play an important role in sustaining strong growth momentum in the medium-term.
Needless to say Pakistan's economy continues to maintain a solid pace of expansion since the fiscal year 2002-03. This recovery has been strong, rapid and sustained. During the fiscal year 2006-07, Pakistan's economy continues to perform impressively and its economic fundamentals have gained further strength.
Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]