Power demand needs $2 billion annual investment: ADB
FAISALABAD (September 15 2007): The country's power demand is currently growing at around 2,000 megawatts (MW) per year, and investment needs for this may exceed $2 billion per year over the next decade, according to Asian Development Bank.
The bank's project completion report on 'Energy Sector Restructuring Programme' (ESRP) said that substantial ADB involvement in Energy Sector Restructuring Programmes can help sustain the progress made under the ESRP.
However, the investment needs to be linked to further reform efforts in six areas: (i) Commitment by the Government to announce tariff decisions approved by Nepra in a timely manner and enable cost recovery across the power sector; (ii) Clear policies on and payment arrangements for any subsidies for power supplies; (iii) Stronger commitments to conclude the restructuring of Wapda and the privatisation of some of its successor companies; (iv) Progress toward open access in the power sector, at least for larger power consumers; (v) Swift establishment of an independent CPPA; and (vi) Strengthening of Nepra as the independent power sector regulator.
The report says that ADB has continued to be engaged in the power sector of Pakistan since 2000. It has provided technical assistance to restructure the gas sector and build the institutional capacity of the National Transmission and Despatch Company Limited and the Alternative Energy Development Board. A major new loan for the transmission sector was approved in December 2006. A technical assistance project for the CPPA is currently going through tendering. ADB's private sector operations have an investment in KESC. A new loan for the distribution sector is being considered, the report said.
In general, the report says that the model for future lending should be multi-tranche facilities, so that the lending program can be linked to progress on ongoing conditions and to further reform efforts. ADB should also aim to lend money in areas where it can take the lead in policy dialogue and reform to ensure best value for money in its overall support.
According to ADB's project completion report, the ESRP was implemented broadly as conceived, and attained most of its planned objectives. Some aspects of the program were delayed, and the achievement in some areas, for example, privatisation, was incomplete. The Government is of the view that initial impediments have been removed, and further progress on implementation of program is expected as planned. However, in general, the reform program was adhered to and the most important objectives were met. Sustained and regular policy dialogue between the Government and ADB, in formal missions and other discussions, ensured effective monitoring of the program.
Overall, from the point of view of relevance, efficacy, efficiency, and sustainability, the program is considered successful. The growing skills of the power sector regulator, the privatisation of KESC, the improvement in the environment for inward investment in the power sector, and the unbundling of Wapda all involved difficult decisions for the Government and those decisions were taken and implemented.
The ESRP loans began processing in April 1998 with a fact-finding mission but were not approved until December 2000. There were several reasons for this relatively long approval period, some of them extraneous to the energy sector (for example, Pakistan 's nuclear tests in May 1998). However, the key factor was the policy dialogue, which led to the policy matrix and the loan covenants. The extended negotiating period gave the Government enough time to meet key conditions for the approval of the loans. This demonstrates the importance of investing time in loan processing and setting tough conditions for loan approval.
Conditions associated with the incentive tranche of Loan (1807) were all met within 4 months of loan approval. Although there was a slight delay compared with the timetable, this was still good performance. The second and third tranches had fewer conditions but were not disbursed because privatisation was not achieved and the Government decided to repay the loan. The other conditions for the second and third tranches were relatively straightforward.
Setting conditions 2 years in advance of a program as wide-ranging as the ESRP is difficult. On the one hand, conditions may be affected by adverse external events such as the difficult environment for power sector investment in 2002 and 2003. On the other hand, the progress of the program may show up other areas where conditions may be needed. The program could have included a mechanism of formal review after about 18 months to consider revising the content and timing of loan covenants. The objective would be to make the covenants more relevant to prevailing conditions, strengthen or bring forward some conditions, and waive or defer others.
The role of the Ministry of Finance, as the Executing Agency for the loans, was also a source of strength for the program. The MoF was well placed to see the link between Pakistan 's macroeconomic crisis and the need for reforms in the energy sector. A well-thought-out structure for monitoring and implementing the ESRP was established. Responsibility for coordinating and monitoring the implementation of the ESRP was given to the MoF, which was supported by (i) the Ministry of Water and Power in the implementation of sector reforms, (ii) Nepra in sector regulation, and (iii) the Privatisation Commission in the privatisation of KESC and other corporatised Wapda entities. A federal steering committee and a KESC privatisation cell ensured timely implementation.
According to report, the loans for the ESRP were closely co-ordinated with those of the IMF and other development partners, particularly the World Bank. This close coordination was a key strength of the ESRP, as it recognised the clear links between Pakistan 's power crisis and macroeconomic instability and offered remedies for both problems.
Loan (1809), the technical assistance loan designed to support the evaluation of the social impact and labour retrenchment and redeployment program for KESC's privatisation, was cancelled in its entirety. Interest in using the loan proceeds seems to have been limited from the outset, with substantial delays in establishing the project management unit for the loan.
Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]