By Engr Abdul Waheed Bhutto
PAKISTAN is experiencing a rising tide of violence against natural gas installations located in Balochistan where the majority of the energy-starved countryââ¬â¢s natural gas facilities are located. The province derives its strategic importance mainly due to its large reserves of oil and gas.
Pakistan has 26.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven gas reserves, and currently produces around 2061 million cubic feet per day (mm cfpd). The share of gas in primary energy supply had increased from 37 to 41 per cent in the last five years.
The natural gas demand grew at an annual consumption growth rate (ACGR) of six per cent against a total energy demand growth at an ACGR of 4.8 per cent and is expected to grow at a similar rate upto 2010.
By the year 2015, countryââ¬â¢s total gas demand would go up to 4,452 (mm cfpd) from the present level of 2061 mm cfpd with bulk of it going to power generation and fertilizer sector. Against this, the supply would stand at 2439 mm cfpd which will leave a huge gap of 2013 mm cfpd.
There would be a deficit of gas unless supplies are substantially raised from new discoveries. In case, the gap is not met through indigenous supply, it is necessary that requisite infrastructure is developed in a timely manner for import. Islamabad is working on plans to build a pipeline that spans from Iranââ¬â¢s massive reserves to Indian markets across Pakistani territory.
Balochistanââ¬â¢s natural gas production is critical to Pakistanââ¬â¢s economy. The Sui-Gas field in Bugti tribal area produces approximately 45 per cent of the countryââ¬â¢s total gas production. Pakistan Petroleum Limited is producing 720-750 million cubic feet of gas daily from more than 80 wells in the field. Other natural gas fields in the province include Uch, Pirkoh, Loti, Gundran and Zarghoon near Quetta. Balochistan has 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and six trillion barrels of oil reserves on- and off-shore.
But these riches did little for the local Baloch tribesmen. Despite the provinceââ¬â¢s wealth of natural resources, Balochistan is the poorest and a restive province; 45 per cent of its population live below the poverty line.
Local population lacks basic necessities like health, water, food and education. The wWhole of the Quetta city, the provincial capital of Balochistan, except cantonment area, is using brackish groundwater.
An ordinary Baloch in Quetta is of the view that he has been facing a step-motherly treatment from the Islamabad rulers ever since the formation of Pakistan. Baloch have been deprived of political, social, cultural and economic rights. They have little educational facilities and have been kept in a state of backwardness.
The present regime aggravated situation by sidelining the mainstream parties of Balochistan in favour of Islamists. There are no Baloch in the top bureaucracy.
The locals are also concerned over the settlement of Punjabi and Pashtun ex-servicemen in key areas of Balochistan to reduce the Balochs to a minority in their historic homeland.
Though Balochistanââ¬â¢s natural gas generates $1.4 billion in revenue annually, Islamabad remits only $116 million in royalties to the province. Over the years, Balochistan did not get a fair share of the oil and gas wealth. Balochistan is getting merely Rs22 per thousands cubic feet of gas extracted while Sindh is getting Rs126 and Punjab Rs180 for some of the wells.
The targeted attacks on the infrastructure is affecting the foreign investment. More than ten oil and gas exploration blocks had been awarded to over 20 local (both public and private) and international firms over the past 10 years but they could not start operations due to law and order problems.
A Chinese company BGP had stopped oil exploration work in Bugti tribal area in June 2001 for security reasons. In July 2004 a U.S. company involved in offshore drilling abandoned its two test wells between Gwadar and Pasni because of security concerns.
During a visit to Pakistan on March 13 and 14, 2006, Mr Samuel W. Bodman, the US Energy Secretary, told the Pakistani journalists that the security situation in Balochistan was an impediment to foreign investment in Pakistan.
In January, the corporate brokerage house Taurus Securities issued its ââ¬ÅKey risks and challenges 2006ââ¬Â report observed that the ongoing violence in Balochistan will have ââ¬Åa detrimental impact on the reserves of natural resources and disrupt gas supplies,ââ¬Â adding that the military operations were worsening the situation.
On the other side, most powerful Sardar Nawab Akbar Bugti has said thatââ¬Â we own the natural resources, but these are being exploited for the benefit of others. We will not allow others to steal our wealth. Your sensitive installations will remain insecure, because you have pilfered, what belongs to our people.ââ¬Â
The government has opted the military solution at the time when there are efforts going on to materialize the proposed plans to build a $7 billion gas pipeline project from Iran to India, via Pakistan.
Pipeline that spans from Iranââ¬â¢s massive reserves to Indian markets across Pakistani territory. The 475 miles of the pipeline will pass through Balochistan. This would not only supply gas, guarantee a source of income, but also increase stability in the region, according to official point of view.
But the pipeline attacks with increasing intensity are unsettling. Despite the heavy patrolling by US forces, oil pipelines come under attack in Iraq. Pipelines run over hundred of miles and across some of the most difficult areas to access. Due to their length, they are very difficult to protect that makes pipelines potential targets. Instead of military operations, the situation should be defused through dialogue.
The main grievance of Balochistan is that the provinceââ¬â¢s minerals and other natural resources are being exploited without any benefit to the local population. To resolve the present situation the Parliamentary Committee on Balochistan has reportedly given two key proposals: 1) substantial increase in the royalty of the province on oil and gas, and 2) empowering the provinces to sign petroleum exploration and sale agreements with local and foreign firms.
These proposals were expected to encourage regional political leaders to open up their provinces to petroleum exploration and development activities to give the provinces a sense of ownership making them directly responsible for the security of vital installations.
However, an increase in the rate of royalty is being opposed by the establishment. They have also opposed proposal that allow the provincial governments to sign petroleum agreements with private firms, on the ground that petroleum is purely a federal subject under the Constitution and yields over Rs70 billion per year in taxes to the national exchequer.
Meanwhile, a number of economic incentives have been promised such as, increased job quota for the Baloch in the government service, preference for locals for recruitment in local development projects etc. However, it seems that the situation has not changed because in the past too, similar promises were made, but they remained unfulfilled.
The local Baloch demand abrogation of the plans for the construction of new army cantonments, the de-militarization of the province and restriction of land ownership in Gawadar for the Balochis only. They are also demanding the right to vote should also be restricted to locals only. They also want employment of locals in petroleum exploration and development companies.
Mr Baloch nationalists consider the issue of provincial autonomy as the core issue for the province.
The security in Baloch territory can be assured only by the Baloch tribes, who have to have their due share of the, royalty, transit fee and other benefits of their gas resources and the pipeline. The policy of creating local stakeholders by bringing the local people on board must be followed, as the local stakeholders can only ensure the steady and speedy development process.
At present, the bulk of natural gas is consumed by for power and fertilizer sector. On average the fertilizer sector has consumed 23.4 per cent of gas during the last 14 years from 1990-91 to 2003-04. Natural gas is being sold to the fertilizer industry at subsidized rate at a time when the demand for gas is quite competitive since it serves as a major input to electricity generation and provides the preferred fuel input to many other industrial processes. According to an estimation, government suffer losses of around Rs15 billion every year as subsidy to the fertilizer sector, which never reaches the farmer.