Wednesday, May 03, 2006
By Hamid Waleed
LAHORE: Taufiq Hussain, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), has said Pakistan is not facing a Mexico-like financial crisis and emphasized that the SBP has capped banksââ¬â¢ exposure to the stock market and real estate to avoid any such situation.
Shahid Javed Burki, a former World Bank vice-president, had told State Bank of Pakistan Governor Shamshad Akhtar on April 22 at Washington Forum that Pakistan was facing symptoms that preceded the Mexican financial crisis more than 10 years back.
Talking to newsmen after speaking at the Second Annual Conference on The Management of the Pakistan Economy at Lahore School of Economics Tuesday, Mr Hussain said: ââ¬ÅMr Burki can reply better as to why he is carrying such an impression about Pakistan banking while sitting in Washington.ââ¬Â
ââ¬ÅSo far as the SBP is concerned, we have capped banksââ¬â¢ exposure to the stock market about two and a half years ago through a circular that no bank will allowed to invest more than 20 percent of their paid-up capital,ââ¬Â he added.
He said Mr Burki has commented on the situation after some two and a half years after this decision, especially when the SBP has resisted large hue and cry against the decision successfully.
Similarly, he said, banks have been restricted from lending on purchase of vacant land in order to control the element of speculation and banks are allowed to extend loans only for construction purposes. He further said that there is no need for devaluation owing to the unprecedented rise in oil prices.
ââ¬ÅThere is no need for devaluation,ââ¬Â he said.
Earlier, speaking at the conference, the SBP deputy governor said evidence clearly suggests that in recent years speculative hoarding and collusive price setting have been significant contributors to domestic inflationary pressures in markets for many key commodities. Such pressures, he argued, respond more to legal and administrative measures and are less sensitive to monetary tightening.
He said Pakistan needs to continue with sound macroeconomic policies, which are the lynchpin of restoring both domestic and foreign investor confidence.
He said macroeconomic management today is complicated by Pakistanââ¬â¢s need to continue growing which requires it to stretch its resource base and the country would have to carefully gauge its priorities to meet these challenges.
While welcoming decline in inflation, he said the external balance has deteriorated significantly in FY06. He said although remittances are expected to show reasonable growth and exports are likely to remain strong, the current account deficit is expected to increase to 4.7 percent of GDP by end-FY06.
ââ¬ÅWhile this is not low, it is quite sustainable in the short run. In the longer run, however, larger current account deficits cannot be sustained, as these would create a vicious cycle of debt creation, exchange rate depreciation and inflation. He said the SBP would continue to retain the tight monetary policy. However, he added, it is important to note that monetary policy alone will not be able to contain the entire rise in inflationary pressures. In particular, there is urgent need for the government to supplement its praiseworthy supply-side measures with policies to address market structure problems.
Sartaj Aziz, former federal finance minister, Dr A R Kamal, Director of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Dr M Tariq Siddiqi, former secretary, Sakib Sherani, chief economist ABN-AMRO Bank, Dr Rashid Amjad, ILO, Geneva, Prof F A Fareedy, of Lahore School of Economics, and Dr Shahid Amjad Chaudhary, LSE Rector also spoke.
By Hamid Waleed
LAHORE: Taufiq Hussain, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), has said Pakistan is not facing a Mexico-like financial crisis and emphasized that the SBP has capped banksââ¬â¢ exposure to the stock market and real estate to avoid any such situation.
Shahid Javed Burki, a former World Bank vice-president, had told State Bank of Pakistan Governor Shamshad Akhtar on April 22 at Washington Forum that Pakistan was facing symptoms that preceded the Mexican financial crisis more than 10 years back.
Talking to newsmen after speaking at the Second Annual Conference on The Management of the Pakistan Economy at Lahore School of Economics Tuesday, Mr Hussain said: ââ¬ÅMr Burki can reply better as to why he is carrying such an impression about Pakistan banking while sitting in Washington.ââ¬Â
ââ¬ÅSo far as the SBP is concerned, we have capped banksââ¬â¢ exposure to the stock market about two and a half years ago through a circular that no bank will allowed to invest more than 20 percent of their paid-up capital,ââ¬Â he added.
He said Mr Burki has commented on the situation after some two and a half years after this decision, especially when the SBP has resisted large hue and cry against the decision successfully.
Similarly, he said, banks have been restricted from lending on purchase of vacant land in order to control the element of speculation and banks are allowed to extend loans only for construction purposes. He further said that there is no need for devaluation owing to the unprecedented rise in oil prices.
ââ¬ÅThere is no need for devaluation,ââ¬Â he said.
Earlier, speaking at the conference, the SBP deputy governor said evidence clearly suggests that in recent years speculative hoarding and collusive price setting have been significant contributors to domestic inflationary pressures in markets for many key commodities. Such pressures, he argued, respond more to legal and administrative measures and are less sensitive to monetary tightening.
He said Pakistan needs to continue with sound macroeconomic policies, which are the lynchpin of restoring both domestic and foreign investor confidence.
He said macroeconomic management today is complicated by Pakistanââ¬â¢s need to continue growing which requires it to stretch its resource base and the country would have to carefully gauge its priorities to meet these challenges.
While welcoming decline in inflation, he said the external balance has deteriorated significantly in FY06. He said although remittances are expected to show reasonable growth and exports are likely to remain strong, the current account deficit is expected to increase to 4.7 percent of GDP by end-FY06.
ââ¬ÅWhile this is not low, it is quite sustainable in the short run. In the longer run, however, larger current account deficits cannot be sustained, as these would create a vicious cycle of debt creation, exchange rate depreciation and inflation. He said the SBP would continue to retain the tight monetary policy. However, he added, it is important to note that monetary policy alone will not be able to contain the entire rise in inflationary pressures. In particular, there is urgent need for the government to supplement its praiseworthy supply-side measures with policies to address market structure problems.
Sartaj Aziz, former federal finance minister, Dr A R Kamal, Director of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Dr M Tariq Siddiqi, former secretary, Sakib Sherani, chief economist ABN-AMRO Bank, Dr Rashid Amjad, ILO, Geneva, Prof F A Fareedy, of Lahore School of Economics, and Dr Shahid Amjad Chaudhary, LSE Rector also spoke.