Pakistan Economic Growth rate Watch Thread

[Viper0011.]

@Viper0011.
Dear sir,
Do you disagree with the above, and please do point out the flaws behind their basic economics flaws....
regards

Hi - Yes, this report has 0 basis or use beyond Q3/2015. Even for the next item, which if 2020, this is useless. For one, how do you know that an economy will grow or shrink by X degree without taking into account the things happening inside an economy, as well as things happening in the external world, posing either a beneficial environment for growth or posting a threat like a war, earth quakes, etc, etc.

This is just a forecast. Not a fact based prediction, in fact, there is nothing fact based beyond Q3/2015 in it. Let's take a few items and analyze those for example:

1) GDP growth rate. Today it is around 4.14, I can agree with that. But in 2020, 2030 and 2050...its foretasted to be at 3.96. Will you buy that? That someone just made a prediction of a constant GDP growth rate for over 3 decades to be the SAME? Makes no common sense.

Do you think market predictions like these, done for the US market back in the 90's or 2000's, every thought or predicted an economic melt down through a financial crises starting in 2008? NO ONE could've predicted that in the 90's or even till 2006-07. Similarly, this forecast is utter crap. Not sure who did it.

2) If today the growth rate is 4.14, BEFORE a massive $ 46 billion is pumped into the Pakistani economy, and then considering associated expansion of trade to 300 millions estimated users in China through the economic corridor (and add probably 20-40 million more people / trade beneficiaries from the Central Russian states), don't you think the growth will significantly increase beyond what it is today (4.14)?? Common sense says it will increase significantly.

But, the report actually decreases the Growth Rate down to 3.96% in 2020, when there would be four times the amount of economic activity going on by that time? That makes no sense. The actual growth rate by 2020 would be around 7-8% per year as Pakistan would've doubled up the consumer base through trade to China through Gawader, WITHOUT having to double up her own population (as the massive 300 million consumers of your ports are Chinese citizens)?

So Pakistan will be passing through products and services bi-directional to accommodate 300 million consumers, but without having a burden to open up schools, hospitals, building roads or Hydro dams for even ONE of these 300 million Chinese consumers as they are Chinese citizens and are a responsibility of their own nation.....imagine the extra revenue it would generate and the economic throughput this one huge project would bring to manufacturing, and transportation, new cities would be developed around the trade route, new hospitals, airports, hotels, water dams, parks, schools, universities, etc, etc. ALL sparking a huge economic uplift due to just one project. Then, there are other projects and growth plans in place for the entire system.....so reducing annual growth rate to 3.96 by 2020 is so flawed that the report is not even worth discussing. By 2020, the Pakistani economy would be actually starting to go towards the peak growth period (like what the Indian economy experienced from 1998 -2008). So the growth rate would be 7-9%, not reduced from today and down to 3.96%.

3) Another factor of a country's economy and heath is its FOREX and Gold Reserves, you think that over the next 5 years, there is over a $ 100 billion being pumped into the economy, and is expected to server a population larger than Pakistan, but the Gold reserves remain the same from today (64.48) till 2050??? Yea, this report's not worth discussions. Its good up till Q3 of this year. Beyond that, it's crap.

 

[MilSpec]

Hi - Yes, this report has 0 basis or use beyond Q3/2015. Even for the next item, which if 2020, this is useless. For one, how do you know that an economy will grow or shrink by X degree without taking into account the things happening inside an economy, as well as things happening in the external world, posing either a beneficial environment for growth or posting a threat like a war, earth quakes, etc, etc.

This is just a forecast. Not a fact based prediction, in fact, there is nothing fact based beyond Q3/2015 in it. Let's take a few items and analyze those for example:

1) GDP growth rate. Today it is around 4.14, I can agree with that. But in 2020, 2030 and 2050...its foretasted to be at 3.96. Will you buy that? That someone just made a prediction of a constant GDP growth rate for over 3 decades to be the SAME? Makes no common sense.

Do you think market predictions like these, done for the US market back in the 90's or 2000's, every thought or predicted an economic melt down through a financial crises starting in 2008? NO ONE could've predicted that in the 90's or even till 2006-07. Similarly, this forecast is utter crap. Not sure who did it.

2) If today the growth rate is 4.14, BEFORE a massive $ 46 billion is pumped into the Pakistani economy, and then considering associated expansion of trade to 300 millions estimated users in China through the economic corridor (and add probably 20-40 million more people / trade beneficiaries from the Central Russian states), don't you think the growth will significantly increase beyond what it is today (4.14)?? Common sense says it will increase significantly.

But, the report actually decreases the Growth Rate down to 3.96% in 2020, when there would be four times the amount of economic activity going on by that time? That makes no sense. The actual growth rate by 2020 would be around 7-8% per year as Pakistan would've doubled up the consumer base through trade to China through Gawader, WITHOUT having to double up her own population (as the massive 300 million consumers of your ports are Chinese citizens)?

So Pakistan will be passing through products and services bi-directional to accommodate 300 million consumers, but without having a burden to open up schools, hospitals, building roads or Hydro dams for even ONE of these 300 million Chinese consumers as they are Chinese citizens and are a responsibility of their own nation.....imagine the extra revenue it would generate and the economic throughput this one huge project would bring to manufacturing, and transportation, new cities would be developed around the trade route, new hospitals, airports, hotels, water dams, parks, schools, universities, etc, etc. ALL sparking a huge economic uplift due to just one project. Then, there are other projects and growth plans in place for the entire system.....so reducing annual growth rate to 3.96 by 2020 is so flawed that the report is not even worth discussing. By 2020, the Pakistani economy would be actually starting to go towards the peak growth period (like what the Indian economy experienced from 1998 -2008). So the growth rate would be 7-9%, not reduced from today and down to 3.96%.

3) Another factor of a country's economy and heath is its FOREX and Gold Reserves, you think that over the next 5 years, there is over a $ 100 billion being pumped into the economy, and is expected to server a population larger than Pakistan, but the Gold reserves remain the same from today (64.48) till 2050??? Yea, this report's not worth discussions. Its good up till Q3 of this year. Beyond that, it's crap.

@Viper0011. @Abingdonboy
Dear sir,

So how did you arrive at a 2 trillion dollar projection?

I am quite interested to know how your prophecy came about, especially when pakistan was at $51 Billion in 1993 and added 200 Billion 21 years, you seem to estimate same country adding 1750 Billion Dollars in 12 years. Your projections will need a sustained 19% growth every year for the next 12 years or am I wrong?

Which "Basic Economic principles" have led to you to add 1750 Billion dollars to a 250 billion dollar economy in 12 years?

Please do help me understand. Sincerely hoping you won't let us be devoid of your brilliant economic insight.

thanks

 

[Viper0011.]

@Viper0011. @Abingdonboy
Dear sir,

So how did you arrive at a 2 trillion dollar projection?

I am quite interested to know how your prophecy came about, especially when pakistan was at $51 Billion in 1993 and added 200 Billion 21 years, you seem to estimate same country adding 1750 Billion Dollars in 12 years. Your projections will need a sustained 19% growth every year for the next 12 years or am I wrong?

Which "Basic Economic principles" have led to you to add 1750 Billion dollars to a 250 billion dollar economy in 12 years?

Please do help me understand. Sincerely hoping you won't let us be devoid of your brilliant economic insight.

thanks

You invited me to this thread asking (very politely for once) to analyze the report you posted. I did that. You've not told anything about the lengthy analysis I had to do for you. So how about we do one thing at a time?

You'll need to first tell me if you agreed with my analysis as to the report was utter crap beyond Q3 of 2015. Then I can answer your post above.

By the way, the dude you are tagging in, doesn't know jack about Strategy and Economic growth. I've dealt with him before. So on these specialized subjects, if you do need backup support, at least invite someone who has a clue about how economy related advisory and strategy is done so we can actually have a fact based discussion. But do answer my first paragraph / questions about my previous post.

 

[MilSpec]

You invited me to this thread asking (very politely for once) to analyze the report you posted. I did that. You've not told anything about the lengthy analysis I had to do for you. So how about we do one thing at a time?

You'll need to first tell me if you agreed with my analysis as to the report was utter crap beyond Q3 of 2015. Then I can answer your post above.

By the way, the dude you are tagging in, doesn't know jack about Strategy and Economic growth. I've dealt with him before. So on these specialized subjects, if you do need backup support, at least invite someone who has a clue about how economy related advisory and strategy is done so we can actually have a fact based discussion. But do answer my first paragraph / questions about my previous post.

dear sir,

I am not an expert in principals of economics as your esteemed self. We are just here to learn from your reputed intellect.

As far as agreement to your previous post, lets assume I do, what then, will you provide us the privilege of being privy to this miraculous influx of 1750 Billion dollars over 12 years, 145.83 average Billion influx in the economy sustained for 12 years.

@Viper0011. Please read post 43, and kindly reply.

 

[Viper0011.]

dear sir,

I am not an expert in principals of economics as your esteemed self. We are just here to learn from your reputed intellect.

As far as agreement to your previous post, lets assume I do, what then, will you provide us the privilege of being privy to this miraculous influx of 1750 Billion dollars over 12 years, 145.83 average Billion influx in the economy sustained for 12 years.

@Viper0011. Please read post 43, and kindly reply.

We are debating......there is no "let's assume I do" in here. Its a debate based on facts. If you are pretending to "agree" with me, then its a waste of my time to even respond. What I am looking for is, you read my position on the topic and tell me what's yours, I'd like to see what you think or can prove with facts if your standing if different. But let's assume doesn't work.....read my previous post and please respond.

The figures you are looking for, aren't miraculous. You think anyone in 1995 (just 20 years ago) thought India would become the 3rd largest economy on the planet????

The answer is a straight forward HELL NO!!! So apply the same logic and you'll see how 2 trillion can happen over the next 10-20 years, for a country with over 200 million population.

 

[Icewolf]

(I came across this brilliant post on another thread post, but before I could reply, the thread disappeared, I hope you wont mind, if you could teach us some basic economics here)


Dear sir,

As you seem to have unparalleled comprehension of basic economy, Please do elaborate the above post where you do state in 12 years pakistan's economy ill cross 2 Trillion dollars.

Please do provide further explanation about the economy -

I am quite interested to know how your prophecy came about, especially when pakistan was at $51 Billion in 1993 and added 200 Billion 21 years, you seem to estimate same country adding 1750 Billion Dollars in 12 years.

View attachment 231171


You are estimating that GDP of Pakistan will go from 250 billion to 2000 Billion in 12 years. That would translate into an approximate 19% growth rate for next 12 years on the GDP.
View attachment 231172




I do not have an economics degree, or have studied economics. I would be a great pleasure to understand the sound basic economics principle that we are unaware of used to make such brilliant projections.

regards

Obviously you don't understand difference between nominal GDP growth and real GDP growth.

 

[MilSpec]

We are debating......there is no "let's assume I do" in here. Its a debate based on facts. If you are pretending to "agree" with me, then its a waste of my time to even respond. What I am looking for is, you read my position on the topic and tell me what's yours, I'd like to see what you think or can prove with facts if your standing if different. But let's assume doesn't work.....read my previous post and please respond.

The figures you are looking for, aren't miraculous. You think anyone in 1995 (just 20 years ago) thought India would become the 3rd largest economy on the planet????

The answer is a straight forward HELL NO!!! So apply the same logic and you'll see how 2 trillion can happen over the next 10-20 years, for a country with over 200 million population.

Dear sir,

OK...

Let me categorically say that I agree with your projections. I am not claiming to be an economic expert, you seem to be lambasting people for lack of understanding of "basic economic principles", So I would love to understand the basic economic principle's you have used to derive the projections.

I am hoping to see the actual growth rate projection across the 12 years as originally claimed which in the last post became a 10-20 years (which has a 100% margin in timeline stated - which is confusing) As a benefit of the doubt please do stick to 10, 12 or 20 years instead of vague timelines as we are dealing with specifics.

Please now tell me, which country in the history of world has sustained 19% average growth rate over last 12 years.

So apply the same logic and you'll see how 2 trillion can happen over the next 10-20 years, for a country with over 200 million population.

Also how many trillion dollars has the subject country added in the last 60 years? Your own words are "it's piece of cake for pakistan to cross to 2 trillion dollars in next 10-12 years" which your are back tracking to 10-20 years now.

For a 2 trillion dollar economy in 12 years, my basic calculations are as follows , are the following projections conistent with yours?

Can you please aslo post any projections by any economists which strengthen your numbers?

World Development Indicators-Google Public Data Explorer


Now previously you stated Pakistan adding 1750 Billion to their economy

 

[DILPAK14]

thanksss

 

[MilSpec]

@Viper0011. Still waiting on your revelations of the grand economic vision of adding 1750 billion dollars to pakistani economy in 12 years at 19% average growth rate to take it from 250 billion to 2 trillion?

 

[Sky lord]

Out of curiosity, what is pakistan going to export to the 300 million new Chinese consumers that they want to buy? China produces pretty much everything fairly cheaply, so where is the competitive advantage? What does Pak make cheaper or better than China?

 

[21 Dec 2012]

@Viper0011. Still waiting on your revelations of the grand economic vision of adding 1750 billion dollars to pakistani economy in 12 years at 19% average growth rate to take it from 250 billion to 2 trillion?

Hey wait a minute. At some places this guy claims that you cannot make any prediction about future economic growth and at others he claim that Pakistan will defy all known bull ceilings sustaining so far unseen levels of growth. WTF

is the fact that NO ONE can forecast 2016 accurately when 2015 isn't even over yet, even HALF of 2015 isn't over yet.

Do you think market predictions like these, done for the US market back in the 90's or 2000's, every thought or predicted an economic melt down through a financial crises starting in 2008? NO ONE could've predicted that in the 90's or even till 2006-07. Similarly, this forecast is utter crap. Not sure who did it.

 

[MilSpec]

Hey wait a minute. At some places this guy claims that you cannot make any prediction about future economic growth and at others he claim that Pakistan will defy all known bull ceilings sustaining so far unseen levels of growth. WTF

Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the glorious influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.

I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.

 

[21 Dec 2012]

Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.

I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.

Best of Luck lol

 

[Dash]

Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.

I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.

I dont want to know on what context it was written as its to bright to my eyes from what you r saying but I must say that 19% will crash many economic minds and new laws need to be re written..

 

[Bilal.]

Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the glorious influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.

I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.

While I don't fully understand these calculations either. But just as an example take your economy, it grew from $477 billion to $1708 billion between 2000 and 2010, adding $1200 billion plus in GDP size, without growing at double digit rate. I think it has something to do with expansion of money supply, exchange rate, real GDP growth and so forth.

Having said that, Pakistan becoming $2 trillion GDP in the next 12 years is not in the realm of possibility. If we do really good we might become a trillion plus economy though.