Pakistan: crossing the Rubicon

[RescueRanger]

Regardless of your political affiliation, economic condition and opinion on the apparatus of the state, the events of the 9th of May 2023 will be etched on the collective memory of our history. Whichever way you slice the cake, the present scenario for Pakistan is unchartered territory. No analyst worth their salt can put their finger in which way the direction the winds may blow and this creates a particularly dangerous situation for the country. I am no analyst so I will aim to present my case for sensibility to prevail amongst this present state of schizophrenia gripping the nation (pragmatic as that may be).

Lets first examine the call of those who are supporters of the present PDM regime and the military's call for swift justice. To do to his area of this inquiry justice requires more than one single post, so I may aim to examine it in a future date if god wills it.

Social Contract: Citizen & State:

Social Contract theory: Locke & Hobbs

Social contract theory says that people live together in society in accordance with an agreement that establishes moral and political rules of behaviour. Some people believe that if we live according to a social contract, we can live morally by our own choice and not because a divine being requires it.

Over the centuries, philosophers as far back as Socrates have tried to describe the ideal social contract, and to explain how existing social contracts have evolved. Philosopher Stuart Rachels suggests that morality is the set of rules governing behaviour that rational people accept, on the condition that others accept them too.

Social contracts can be explicit, such as laws, or implicit, such as raising one’s hand in class to speak. The Constitution of Pakistan is often cited as an explicit example of part of Pakistan’s social contract. It sets out what the government can and cannot do. Pakistani citizens and those who choose to live in Pakistan agree to be governed by the moral and political obligations outlined in the Constitution’s social contract.

It is widely accepted that for a state to successfully function it must have a set of rules and principals which are collectively accepted and the citizenry agree to follow these rules and hand over certain freedoms in exchange for security and support from the state. Abraham Maslow (1954) proposed that human beings possess two sets of needs. This five-stage model can be divided into deficiency needs and growth needs. The first four levels are often referred to as deficiency needs ( D-needs ), and the top level is known as growth or being needs (B-needs ).

Hierarchy of Needs: Abraham Maslow

In Pakistan we can see that from 1958 onwards due to political, economic and social uncertainty and instability, the population have been focused on "survival" and hence in order to develop resilience have focused on the primary human needs which are focused on the physiological and group safety. If you would like to know more about resilience and its psychological impact on the psyche of the nation in terms of "group think" I have covered it in detail in another post which can be found here: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/resilient-communities-for-a-prepared-pakistan.351981/

Justice has always been subject to dispute, whereas strength is always easily accepted. French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal wrote a famous pensées on the subject of titled "Justice and Might" in which he expressed:

“Justice, might.—It is right that what is just should be obeyed; it is necessary that what is strongest should be obeyed. Justice without might is helpless; might without justice is tyrannical. Justice without might is gainsaid, because there are always offenders; might without justice is condemned. We must then combine justice and might, and for this end make what is just strong, or what is strong just.​

​

Justice is subject to dispute; might is easily recognised and is not disputed. So we cannot give might to justice, because might has gainsaid justice, and has declared that it is she herself who is just. And thus being unable to make what is just strong, we have made what is strong just.”​

Indeed, regardless of whether social contracts are explicit or implicit, they provide a valuable framework for harmony in society, moving on I want to now look at a few areas of importance relevant to our nation's present predicament;

Public Safety, Law & Order:

Following on then from Maslow's hierarchy of needs, comes the important element of the social contract, that of the state fulfilling its obligations to the citizens to ensure their safety. This is often placed under the umbrella phrase "public safety". It is important to mention here that there are many different public safety definitions, but the main idea that runs through each one of them is that citizens are protected from harm. At a high level, this could be protecting the public from a number of different scenarios such as becoming a victim of crime, natural disasters, or terror threats such as terrorism. For example, a high-level threat like terrorism can threaten public safety as it can impact and decrease how safe we are from a terrorist attack.

The government of each country is responsible for the public safety of its citizens and has a number of departments, emergency services, and security agencies that help with this and Pakistan is no different. Where this becomes a little complicated in the present scenario is where the state and its various functions appendages responsible for safety and security overreach their remit, unchecked these intrusions into public and private life can become excessive and eventually oppressive.

Therefore in many countries there are vital checks and balances placed to ensure that the rights of the citizens aren't overly limited by the state in exercising its duty to ensure public safety and national security. Why do I mention this I hear you asking? Well it has something to do with the manner in which the investigations following the 9th May incident are conducted, if you have a moment to read past this paragraph please indulge me and allow me to explain;

In my post on the 13th of May I explained how the government would use various tools and measures to conduct investigations and register FIRs against people it thought were responsible for the incidents at various government and military owned installations around the country, that post can be found here: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/oust...-and-discussion.759605/page-434#post-14364326

Crime and Criminality

Crime Prevention Triangle Professor Ronald Clarke
Clarke (1999)[1] developed the HOT model of policing referring to H: Harm (risk of harm), O: Opportunity (likelihood of crime being committed vs crime being prevented) and T: Threat (the severity of exposure to a victim/community for the risks) simply put risk = Likelihood x Severity. He argued that some of the constituent elements of crime can be considered as being "hot"; that is both frequently occurring and worthy of attention. Professor Clarke further developed the theory that criminal investigations from a policing perspective can be categorised into two;

1. Volume crimes: These are your daily robberies, burglaries, thefts, assaults etc
2. Serious, complex and protracted: these are often complex investigations which require a greater deal of specialisation and expertise along with resources, tools and equipment to conduct, the more complex and protracted the investigation the more time consuming it becomes and the greater emphasis on the weight of the evidence presented against the accused.

(Important: The burden of proof lies solely at the prosecution to present - BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT that the accused is guilty of an offence).

An example for a volume crime would be a robbery at an ATM: the FIR is registered (if you are lucky) the IO (Investigating Officer) will review what are called "lines of enquiry" these include witness, victim interviews, obtaining statements, and collecting visual forensic evidence (CCTV/View Footage) and physical evidence(bullet casings, DNA, fingerprints etc.) from the scene of the crime. They may issue public appeals for information where possible, if the suspect is located a warrant is issued for his or her arrest, they are arrested, remanded, interviewed and brought before the courts for judgement.

Serious, complex investigations on the other hand are far more prolonged, great care must be taken to ensure that investigators remain objective and impartial and open to new avenues of investigation for tunnel vision brings the possibility of missing vital parameters and implicating the innocent party. To this end French criminologist Dr. Edmund Locard often cited as the father of criminal forensic science the developed his exchange principal.

‘Locard’s Exchange Principle’ in forensic science holds that the perpetrator of a crime will bring something to the crime scene and will leave with something from it;1 it was originally devised by the ‘Sherlock Holmes of Lyon’, France, Dr Edmond Locard (1877–1966), a criminologist. This basic principle of forensic science is the concept that every contact leaves a trace and that with contact between two items, there will always be an exchange.

New Scotland Yard UK and the FBI Evidence Response Team (USA) developed a system for investigating major crimes called T.I.E.:
The term trace/implicate/eliminate (TIE) is taken from major incident investigation. Investigative effort can be focused on those implicated, in order to identify the suspect(s). Development of an effective TIE strategy requires investigators of multiple skills and backgrounds to work on what is often referred to as a JIT(Joint Investigation Team) or MIT (Major Investigation Team):

The investigators develop parameters based on time, witness testimony, the develop their approach by "snowballing" a snowballing technique, starting with the witnesses who are already known.

Constructing a TIE category
A TIE category is a group of people sharing a common characteristic which is likely to include the offender.

TIE categories are typically based on those:

1. with access to the scene at the time of the offence
2. in the vicinity of the scene at the time of the offence
3. living in, or associated with, a certain geographical area or relevant premises
4. related to, or associated with, the victim
5. with previous convictions for similar offences (usually known as MO suspects)
6. with physical characteristics similar to the offender
7. with access to certain types of vehicle
8. This is not an exhaustive list, and the more that is known about the circumstances of the crime, the greater the chances of constructing an accurate TIE category. Some pre-work may be required to determine the most suitable characteristics to use.

As more material becomes available, the validity of TIE categories can be reassessed.
The Blackstone's Police Investigations Manual[2] states "Where there are a large number of not eliminated TIE subjects in a particular category, it may be necessary to accept that little can be done until more material can be gathered. In these circumstances it may be more productive to put resources into locating and gathering material, rather than to continue to focus on individuals."

This is important for the impartial and objective investigation into the 9th May incident because of the following factors;

1. Lines of enquiry: As I eluded to in my post on the 13th of May, in their zealotry to trace and implicate potential suspects investigators carried out a hasty cell-site dump, a rather weak investigative strategy with the possibility of collateral intrusion. Collateral Intrusion is defined as "The risk of obtaining private information about people who are not subjects of surveillance or property interference activity."

2. Due to the lack of physical forensic evidence and the woeful state of forensic science in Pakistan, the investigators are relying on what is known as digital and visual forensic evidence. Digital forensic evidence can include CDR (Call Data Records), Cell Site dumping, Geo-tagging, open source media trawling (Social Media), examination of mobile devices (interrogating mobile phones of detained persons either physically or downloading the content using specialist software), CCTV footage and speculative facial mapping/matching against NADRA.

The issue with this approach strategies that everyone who's cell-phone maintained a "handshake" will become a suspect for scrutiny, despite not having been involved in any criminality. This is why Cell Site dumping and CDR trawling and visual forensic evidence on their own is not a good tool for speculative identification of potential suspects and has been challenged in the European Court of Human Rights. [3]. In any civilised country this approach would not stand up to public scrutiny of an investigation but this is PAKISTAN, SO ANYTHING GOES!

Coming to the issue of forced confessions and confessions under duress.


Letter of the Law & Spirit of the Law:
There has been a lot of talk by politicians, journalists, and the military to punish anyone who they deemed to be connected to widespread public disorder, damaging of public property and military installations and venues of significance including monuments erected as memorials to Martyrs of the armed forces. There are several articles of legislation working in this, the ones people are mainly being charged with are:

• Section 144 of THE CODE OF CRIMINAL PROCEDURE (CRPC) empowers district administration to issue orders in public interest that may place a ban on an activity for a specific period. Such a ban is enforced by the police who register cases under section 188 of the Pakistan Penal Code for violations of the ban. Section 188 carries a maximum penalty of six months in prison or fine or both.
• Section 147 OF OFFENCES AGAINST THE PUBLIC TRANQUILITY - Pakistan Penal Code, 1860. Whoever is guilty of rioting, shall be punished with imprisonment of either description for a term which may extend to two years, or with fine, or with both.
• THE PUNJAB MAINTENANCE OF PUBLIC ORDER ORDINANCE, 1960 (A draconian and overreach law which gives the state a whole raft of powers to place restrictions on the citizenry - mainly focuses on offences and acts classified as "Terrorism". This piece of legislation is so broad and covers such a wide range of restrictions that it would require an entire thread on its own just to discuss it, it is truly a black law from a bygone era.
• THE PAKISTAN ARMY ACT 1952 [This act mainly governs punishment of personnel of the Army and civilians attached to the military - however in 1966, under the rule of military leader Gen. Ayub Khan, an amendment was made to the act whereby civilians accused of inciting mutiny within the rank and file through written and verbal material, could be tried under the act. Civilians accused of sharing official state secrets with the enemy may also be tried in a military court as well as those civilians who are accused of targeting and attacking military installations.

It is vital that the state in order to maintain some semblance of law and order ensure that the sanctity of the law must prevail and that citizens must answer for any crimes committed, however there are limits and controls placed on how the state exercises these powers for a very good reason.

Pakistan is a signatory of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights [4], it is the responsibility of the state and those in power to overwatch the power of the state and the manner in which it is exercised on its citizens. Important to mention here are the following few articles of fundamental human rights that HAVE BEEN BREACHED in PAKISTAN since the 9th of May.

• Article 5: No one shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.
• Article 6: Everyone has the right to recognition everywhere as a person before the law.
• Article 7: All are equal before the law and are entitled without any discrimination to equal protection of the law. All are entitled to equal protection against any discrimination in violation of this Declaration and against any incitement to such discrimination.
• Article 8: Everyone has the right to an effective remedy by the competent national tribunals for acts violating the fundamental rights granted him by the constitution or by law.
• Article 9: No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile.
• Article 10: Everyone is entitled in full equality to a fair and public hearing by an independent and impartial tribunal, in the determination of his rights and obligations and of any criminal charge against him.
• Article 11: Everyone charged with a penal offence has the right to be presumed innocent until proved guilty according to law in a public trial at which he has had all the guarantees necessary for his defence. No one shall be held guilty of any penal offence on account of any act or omission which did not constitute a penal offence, under national or international law, at the time when it was committed. Nor shall a heavier penalty be imposed than the one that was applicable at the time the penal offence was committed.
• Article 12: No one shall be subjected to arbitrary interference with his privacy, family, home or correspondence, nor to attacks upon his honour and reputation. Everyone has the right to the protection of the law against such interference or attacks.

There is an unwritten rule within the legal world known as "the Letter of the Law and the Spirt of the Law": Simply put, the letter of the law is black and white, it is neutral and impartial, if the constitution is the skeleton of the nation, the laws are the flesh that surround it, however within this there is also the concept of the "spirit of the law", which requires that when exercising the immense powers granted to governments, its institutions and the law courts, that there should be an element of discretion.

Charging women and children some as young as 11 with serious crimes is never a lesson, granted the age of criminal responsibility under law is age 10 and above, however by prosecuting otherwise law abiding citizens some very young with their whole life ahead of them is nothing but an exercise in retribution, a vengeful state abusing its power, it is neither impartial nor provides true restitution, the ESTABLISHMENT OF SHAM MILITARY COURTS is a very dangerous precent, it should not be accepted under any circumstances and should be challenged, especially when there are civilian Anti Terrorism courts that can try citizens under laws of similar severity. These is not an example of a state protecting its citizens, rather the last desperate spasms of a dying raging bull!

And to this end there is a fascinating statue outside the Cumberland School of Law which is simply titled "Justice and MERCY"

Economic woes & wet dreams:
A country runs on its economy, its citizens both domestic and overseas and on its ability to provide a stable and hospital location for investment and business. There is serious concern both domestically and internationally about the state of Pakistan's failing economy which is now on life support. Despite this Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Wednesday asserted that the country was not on the verge of a financial crisis and “will absolutely not default”.[5] This despite announcing there will be NO IMF PROGRAM in PAKISTAN [6]

Meanwhile participants of a survey conducted by the American Business Council of Pakistan (ABC) — a group of overseas companies — are of the view that “significant apprehensions exist about the ease of operating business in the present and short-term future” in Pakistan and have raised concerns about the country’s international perception.[7]

The country is fuel insecure and relies on imported oil and gas, even the Iran Pakistan pipeline is in jeopardy, on Thursday the Government of Pakistan asked the United States to allow it to build a pipeline for buying gas from Iran or help it pay an expected $18 billion penalty it would face if it did not complete the project by March 2024. [8]

The economic condition is worsening within the country and the impact is being felt by the average Pakistani, just yesterday the Government of Pakistan announced that cash transactions above Rs. 10,000 will be banned and customers and businesses will have to reply on debit and credit cards, this is an impossible rule to enforce considering the limited ePOS and internet infrastructure in Pakistan. Furthermore two leading economic experts have lambasted the government's policy by saying “To thump your chest and say, ‘see we have not defaulted’ means nothing if you continue to ignore the underlying crisis,” warned Atif Mian, a professor of economics, public policy and finance at Princeton University. “The only thing worse than indecisiveness in the face of a crisis is incompetence.”

Shuja Nawaz, a scholar whose books on the Pakistan army are widely admired, warned that the current political crisis “has already weakened the economy and destroyed public trust.” The crisis “has destroyed trust in Pakistan as a site for investment by other countries and even by overseas Pakistanis,” he added.[9]

In closing, there is still time to take corrective action to correct this stall and the impending nosedive. However to those in power I would ask; to what avail has all this chaos been allowed to metastases and spread? To crush one political opponent, to stall elections? The decision makers hide behind the sacrifices of our brave young men and women both in and out of uniform.

The seething hate and distrust among the public along with the damage to the image of Pakistan among both friendly and other nations will not be repaired, the damage has been done, no amount of garlands, rose petals, banners, songs and marches will make up for this. I just want to end this post with this one image about the present state of this perpetual farce:

References:
[1] Clarke, Ronald V. “Situational Crime Prevention.” Crime and Justice, vol. 19, 1995, pp. 91–150. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/1147596. Accessed 26 May 2023.
[2] Blackstone's Police Investigators Manual 2023, Paul Connor Et.Al, Oxford University Press.
[3] https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk...cepts-european-rights-court-rules-2021-05-25/
[4] https://portal.mohr.gov.pk/international_framew/un-core-treaties/
[5] https://www.dawn.com/news/1755491/pakistan-will-absolutely-not-default-asserts-dar#
[6] https://tribune.com.pk/story/2418511/dar-hints-at-end-to-imf-programme
[7] https://www.dawn.com/news/1755740/s...ing-business-in-pakistan-in-short-term-future
[8] https://www.dawn.com/news/1755598/us-nod-sought-for-iran-gas-pipeline-to-avoid-18bn-penalty
[9] https://www.dawn.com/news/1755600/experts-flay-govts-nonsensical-economic-policy

 

[S.Y.A]

all of this is well and good, but will those in power pay heed or will they continue relying on doctored briefings, surveys and khushamdi reports of all is well?

 

[Imran Khan]

this is open war now one side pdm and army other side Pakistanis . it can not be reversed . its done and dusted . army is another Punjab police now and they have 0 respect credibility and no they can not correct it .

 

[Cash GK]

this is open war now one side pdm and army other side Pakistanis . it can not be reversed . its done and dusted . army is another Punjab police now and they have 0 respect credibility and no they can not correct it .

یزید وقت کے خوف سے کوفہ مزاج لوگوں نے عمران خان کو تنہا چھوڑ دیا...عمران خان واقعی راہ حق پر ہے ...حقیقی حسینی بن کر وقت کے یزید کے سامنے سربکف کھڑا ہے ...میرا سلام ہو شوکت خانم پر کہ اس نے اتنے دلیر اور جرات مند بیٹے کو جنم دیا ...اللہ تعالی غیب سے ان کی امداد فرمائے

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