There are few intangibles that we must consider before jumping to any conclusion. As the perceptions do matter...
1. Remember the night., IAF violated Pakistani air space, there was jubilation all over India specially the Indian media. Their tone was arrogant and their body language was just like they have conquered Mars
2. Then the next day came, we all know what PAF did, now here are few intangible facts that India lost another of their frontline fighter, may be it was miraj or su30
3. If an F 16 would have been lost, Indians would not have been on the backfoot irrespective they lost Mig. It would have been their bigger achievment than the Balakot strike,
4. In today's world u can't hide an F 16 wreckage. By now it would have been surfaced through any channel as Pakistan armed forces have no shortage of enemies with in our own country
5. USA would have leaked the info through any other means regarding F 16 being shot down, although it is 50% possible
6. Observe Indian media and Modi body language on that day
7. Listen Modi saying if we would have rafael
8. Analyze coverage of international media, if there would have been an iota of chance that F 16 was shot down then international media is not very friendly to Pakistan
9. Observe body language of Indian military representatives during press conference. It sums up all, moral doesn't fade away if you have lost a soviet Era mig against the front line fighter of your enemy
10. Indian propaganda machine is a much lethat, bigger and smarter, it's not difficult for them to get clue of downing of Pakistani jet
11. If you can have the video of Indian jet wreckage from IOK, then they can also get the same from AJK of F16
So these are few of many aspects which any sane person can understand the real outcome events, any body is welcome to counter these aspects with his own solid logic