PAF and the JXX Fifth Gen Fighter

[Muhammad Yaser Naqi]

Dont underestimate 4th generation fighters ....they are still capable to challange AC's of 4.5th n 5th gen AC 's.

F-16 is the worlds best and war proven Air Craft.

Question is when F-16 got war proven and who was the competitor in the war ... if you are fighting a Dog with a Cat or Dog with a Dog .. but when Dog comes against a Tiger or against a Lion conditions will be quite different and interesting...
So may be F-16 will do somthing against 4.5 G with some great expertise and some good luck but if it will come against F 22 where it stands..

 

[applesauce]

just a few thoughts not to rain on your parade or anything

you cant possibly be thinking that 1-1.5 billion makes you anything near a 25% partner in a fifth gen project.

china really doesn't "need" any monetary investments, if they allowed Pakistan to join its purely a political/strategic thing thus i have my doubts that china would even allow it to be a joint project given the current circumstances(pakistan is still technically a us ally, its government is corrupt to no end, technology-wise pakistan is behind to china and finacially well you know how it is financially

while i think china will at least sell maybe even with tot to Pakistan a version(the light version ie:f-35 type if it exists) i have doubts about full tot to pakistan the best plane china has that is potentially on par with(within ball park of) the best the west has. given that the current leader of pakistan is highly unreliable at best(whos knows if he'll give away secrets if someone, say the cia were to throw a few million his way).

when building the plane, obviously china will put its own air force as priority thus what will pakistan do in the mean time? while your waiting India is getting all kinda goodies like more mki and mrca and such you cant possibly be suggesting the jf-17 fullfill all required roles till the j-xx can make it to Pakistan in at least 10 years time.

if your suggesting that maybe if the pakistani financial situation gets better then it can join, well given that there are rumors of first flight this year or next, isnt it too late to wait till the financial situation is better? given that the development will be already near completion in 5 years?

so what im saying is, financially pakistan cant afford it right now, without sacrificing too much. its civilian government is not trust worthy, fix these 2 things and i dont see why china wouldnt want pakistan to join, but like i said at this point even if thing start to get fixed tomorrow it may be too late to join.

 

[mughaljee]

Fellows,
why we are not focusing on JF-17 Current Version ?

 

[SBD-3]

Information is not knowledge.”
Albert Einstein quotes

if you're concerned about knowledge, then you should better pursue a degree in Aeronautical and Aviation Engneering. Here we most acquit ourselves with basic knowhow and information...and at least i have observed, that members usually grow mature as they absorb more and more information. So what you will find is a that many people jumping in every discussion or many just observing and posting only in specific areas of interest. You ll find it all here mate, just calm down and get addicted to reading more than posting at first to get strong footings for agruments

 

[SBD-3]

No, sir, not underestimating the LCA. Merely pointing to the fact that it is far behind on schedule and still under-developed, partially owing to India's lack of experience in the area. I followed that by saying that "this is a Russian design", i.e., they have done this a hundred times in the past and, therefore, it is much more of a threat.


Sir, I am not denying any of your points. But please consider the fact that nobody, not Russia, not China and certainly not India, has had a taste of Fifth Gen before, and yet they are pursuing it. We may not have a great deal of experiencing designing 4th Gen aircraft, but we certainly have some 20 years of experience operating them, which is, incidentally, longer than India has.

See, here's how I see it. Even if we can't provide technical know-how, we can, at least, assist with specifications and requirements development, program management, and, most importantly, funding. If, say, Pakistan can become a 25% partner in the J-XX program (hypothetically speaking), that would not only solve our 5th Gen problems (possibly with ToPT once we are able to absorb it), it will even be more cost effective in the long term (as the per unit cost will certainly be much greater once it is in the production phase). The key difference to understand is that investment is greater than purchasing, and since the PAF has to move towards the 5th Gen eventually, why not invest?

Of course, that is only one idea. I'm sure if the PAF's top brass sat down to address this problem, they would find many more. Like I said, the F-35 may also be a possibility.

I see the Idea, but a seek a few clarifications
1-How PAF can specify the program requirment of a generation where it has no opertaional awareness? (I mean all PAF can specific is that aircraft should be "something like raptor").Furthermore,China already have defined the specifications for her 5th Gen so we see a development going on over there i mean it would be silly that they would be making efforts without specifying certain benchmarks. If you're referring to an export variant, then its specs would be specified by China (upto what extent, they are willing to water it down) IF they decide to export it. All PAF can do is to specify but Chinese position will be dominent as China most likely, will be the monopolist supplier (I dont think JSF is coming PAF way)
2- What value can PAF add to this program?...PAF can be a benificiary at most by learning, but certainly not a contributor as indicated by ACM as well
3-Chinese program is about worth 30 Billion USD given 25% stake ur mentioning only development cost share will be around USD 7.5 Billion, thats about 15 times the development cost of JFT and more than the total millitary budget of Pakistan let alone the budget of PAF. given the current expansion plans of PAF, its virtually impossible to acquire even a 25% stake in JXX.

 

[EgO Boy]

Question is when F-16 got war proven and who was the competitor in the war ... if you are fighting a Dog with a Cat or Dog with a Dog .. but when Dog comes against a Tiger or against a Lion conditions will be quite different and interesting...
So may be F-16 will do somthing against 4.5 G with some great expertise and some good luck but if it will come against F 22 where it stands..

On top of it...............

 

[Developereo]

so what im saying is, financially pakistan cant afford it right now, without sacrificing too much. its civilian government is not trust worthy, fix these 2 things and i dont see why china wouldnt want pakistan to join, but like i said at this point even if thing start to get fixed tomorrow it may be too late to join.

Excellent points.

I don't see why China would want to export its latest technology. The US doesn't export the F22, and the only reason the Russians are willing to share knowledge is because they are cash strapped.

 

[unicorn148]

Excellent points.

I don't see why China would want to export its latest technology. The US doesn't export the F22, and the only reason the Russians are willing to share knowledge is because they are cash strapped.

i dont think y u people think Russia is cash strapped. Russia have Forex reserves of 500 billion dollers and have large oil reserves so it need money and any way India is investing max of 5 billion $ and that amount is nothing for Russia.. IF Russia is ready to sell to IRAN then IRAN would be ready to give the double the amount but no they are only developing with India and India is equal partner so will get equal profits in this if sold to other countries

 

[rockstarIN]

Excellent points.

I don't see why China would want to export its latest technology. The US doesn't export the F22, and the only reason the Russians are willing to share knowledge is because they are cash strapped.

This is one of the main point left out by others...

USA hardly share their high end technology to others(F-22). And they make other nations as partners and get funding for F-35

Russia has no money to develop this technology by them alone, India see it as an opportunity to enter into from the scratches (design) of this machine which will enhance its capabilities in the future to make its own. Even top Russian officials indicated that 5th Gen technology is very complicated and secret so hardly any country will go ToT or know how to others..

What ever strong China-Pakistan friendship is, yet to see China offer their top notch stuff to Pakistan as the huge development cost is from Chinese. In this case F-35 is a good option..

May be most ppl will not agree with me..

 

[rockstarIN]

i dont think y u people think Russia is cash strapped. Russia have Forex reserves of 500 billion dollers and have large oil reserves so it need money and any way India is investing max of 5 billion $ and that amount is nothing for Russia.. IF Russia is ready to sell to IRAN then IRAN would be ready to give the double the amount but no they are only developing with India and India is equal partner so will get equal profits in this if sold to other countries

Money is definitely a factor otherwise why did USA stopped F-22?

India is a responsible country & an old friend of Russia as well as have some expertise in aviation industry, that is the reason we are a partner. Iran has nothing.

 

[Developereo]

i dont think y u people think Russia is cash strapped.

Russia approached China for JV on PAKFA before approaching India. There are only two reasons someone would want a partner: for their money or their knowledge. With all due respect to India and China, I don't think the Russians are lacking knowledge in this area. They managed to keep pace with the Americans just fine all by themselves during the Cold War.

What ever the strong China-Pakistan friendship is, its yet to see China offer their top notch stuff to Pakistan as the huge development cost is from Chinese.

Agree. The export version of JXX will be a watered down version, even to Pakistan.

The same as the FGFA (Indian version) will lack certain features the Russians will keep for themselves in their PAKFA.

No country is stupid to give away decades of experience and top secret defence technology even for a few billion dollars.

 

[Awesome]

India, Russia ink biggest-ever military deal

The above news will no doubt have rippled into Pakistans military head quarters.

The official signing of the joint development of a 5th gen fighter (a sPin off from PAK FA).

With so much talk about FC20 in 2015 & possiblly more F16s from Norway or Europe post 2016 should the PAF not start to really push china on joining their JXX fifth gen fighter programme.

Some PDF members are claiming the chinease are neck and neck with Russia on their own programme and will enter IOC at the same time around 2018 time frame.

IF THIS IS TRUE ????????

Rather than comitt $2 BILLION ON FC20 or $1 billion more on used early F16s wud it not be bet better use of limited resources to go to

THUNDER ONLY as the main project

And spend $1 billion or $2 billion on joining JXX

Surely one sqd of JXX in 2020 COSTING $2 billion will be better than 5 sdqs F16s or 3 of FC20 COSTING THE SAME...

You're discounting 8-10 years of JXX arrival as nothing. FC-20 would be on the horizon around 2015 onwards itself - The Russian 5th Gen and the Chinese 5th Gen will be around in about 2025.

There is a lot of exaggeration going on with the 5th Gens. Up until 5 years ago the US was supposed to be 50 years ahead of all other nations and right now whereas it has its own failing 5th gen programs, suddenly Russia and China are coming forth with their own machines with a 10-15 year gap?

1. The Russians have never really given a timeline, most exaggerations were done by Indians for their own vested interests
2. The Chinese have not given any timelines either, most exaggerations are being done by the Americans to spook their public.

Success always comes incrementally, big bang approachers have almost always failed. Progression for the PAF should be JF-17 upgrades, J-10, FC-20, Upgrades and then J-XX.

 

[SQ8]

It is quite unlikely the PAF will opt for the JXX at any stage..
Rockstar's analysis is a little accurate... While the Chinese do offer their best to us a year or so after they develop it. The Chinese aircraft may be too centric to their own op req..
It is also quite likely that the first 5th gen jet in the PAF service might very well be a JF-17 derivative( although it would probably differ enough to reduce commonality by quite a bit).
The South Korean KFX seems like an open option. But the issues that plague the F-35 today will have the same effect on that project.. too many cooks spoil the broth(The EF-2000 was esentially a development of the EFA..and quite a few times.. partners wanted to pull out of the project). Unless or until the KFX starts out with the Koreans and one other indrustrialized partner.. it may well be a damp squib.

 

[rockstarIN]

Agree. The export version of JXX will be a watered down version, even to Pakistan.

The same as the FGFA (Indian version) will lack certain features the Russians will keep for themselves in their PAKFA.

No country is stupid to give away decades of experience and top secret defence technology even for a few billion dollars.

I do not think so...look at our MKI..

Which Russian technology or weapons are not available to us? they wll sure give us anything..

That is the reason why India entered in this programme so early..

I'm sure Indian version will see a lot of our own as well as IAI and french systems on it. In fact, this might a factor in MMRCA, who will give us 'their' good technology know-how, whoever, gives us the best, will win..that is the reason why EF & Rafale is on top in the race & F-18 is behind.

We will definitely wants to the best technology from MMRCA ToT to integrate in our FGFA and AMCA.

 

[Developereo]

Which Russian technology or weapons are not available to us? they wll sure give us anything..

There is no way to prove it; it is just my gut feel that no country will part with its top secret technology.

Firstly, there are no permanent friends and today's friend could be tomorrow's blackmailer.

Secondly, even if that doesn't happen, you have essentially outsourced your national security to the export country. Your secrets are now only as safe as their security.