Opinion The Kayani doctrine

[Paan Singh]

Indian interests are in the process of being FU%ked up right now in Bangladesh, Nepal, Afghanistan and even in Maldives. They could not even manage their interests in Sri Lanka. Pakistan on the other hand has out maneuvered two super powers in Afganistan, contributed to demise of one and the other is not looking too good either. Pakistan did this while keeping its next door enemy India at bay, which is 7 times bigger so go figure? When Soviets were in Afghanistan, Indians were aligned with them and now when the Americans are there Indians are aligned with them but did not and will not help the end game. If one goes by what Chuck Hagel said even the stupid Americans have caught up with Indian silly games.

how pakistan out maneuvered powers?

car to explain pls

 

[INDIC]

First point of kayani doctrine

1)American will have to withdraw its troops.

We will talk when american will go.

I read American are going to keep thousands of troops in Afghanistan till 2024.

 

[Ark-Angel]

We need real policy makers and diplomats i.e. a real, functioning democratic Govt so that they can define our long-term goals and chalk out plans to achieve them (mil can't do this objectively because it's India-centric).
Army has a lot of military related stuff to do. IB and FIA must play their roles to the optimum level so that burden on ISI can be reduced. Immediate action must be taken to support, develop and protect Balochistan (esp Hazara Community). NAB and FBR should play their roles accordingly (Intelligence Agencies MUST ensure this). Constitution shall be redrafted or at least, amended, to fix the loopholes of the current constitution. It shall be declared that we're in a state of war and anti-terrorist courts MUST demand the accused to prove himself to be innocent. After internal problems are solved to an extent then promoting one or two more officers to four star ranks shall be considered in order to prevent future mil Govts. I'd suggest DG ISI be made a 4-star. Combined Army-Navy-Air Force exercises and war games need to be held on a regular basis and this may, I repeat, may (if we're lucky enough) lead to "proper" establishment of Northern, Central and Southern Command (each headed by a four-star). Mullah's need to be controlled as well. Jalsay jaloos on roads should be BANNED! Anyone who wants to do a jalsa must be given an open place to do it (and they must be charged heavily for it!). And please, stop worrying about dual nationals - it is a non issue.
Do the above things and we will prosper. And right now Kayani has the most important as well as volatile role to play. If he fails, and he has (unfortunately) to an extent already then we're doomed! I BET!

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

First point of kayani doctrine

1)American will have to withdraw its troops.

We will talk when american will go.

contrary to popular beliefs, there are circles within politicos and military which are at least somewhat nervous about any immediate withdrawal

the Americans themselves have said it would be a gradual process; not like every last bit of brick mortar and artillery imported would just vanish into thin air on one day in 2014!


truth is - challenges do lie much ahead.....all we really care a damn about is

a.) of course the encirclement issue

which leads us to


b.) a non-hostile regime in Kabul that would demonstrate at least a modicum of control over war-tattered Afghanistan --- one that doesnt provide refuge or patronage to the enemies of Pakistan (TTP, BLA, sectarian groups etc. etc.)




by the way, was this document released by ISPR or by a civilian with a right to his/her own views and opinions?



some of you people...

 

[BATMAN]

By 2011, Petraeus’ four pillars had begun to fall flat

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakistan-army/238170-opinion-kayani-doctrine.html#ixzz2MhhUPVL1

What were these 4 pillars?

 

[PeaceGen]

Opinion The Kayani doctrine

Dr Farrukh Saleem

Sunday, March 03, 2013

Capital suggestion



The Kayani Doctrine, built on four pillars, comprises: American troops would have to withdraw from Afghanistan; reconciliation among Afghan factions is not possible without the ISI; the Jalalabad-Torkham-Karachi route remains the most viable for withdrawing American forces and India cannot be allowed to encircle Pakistan.

In 2009, General McChrystal, commander Isaf and commander US forces in Afghanistan (USFOR-A), refusing to buy the Kayani Doctrine, requested a ‘troop surge’ numbering 30,000-40,000. In 2010, 101st Combat Aviation Brigade, 502nd Infantry Regiment, 187th Infantry Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team and the 101st Sustainment Brigade were deployed to Afghanistan.

In 2010, General Petraeus, commander Isaf and commander USFOR-A, refusing to buy the Kayani Doctrine, began implementing his “comprehensive counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy”. General Petraeus’ COIN had four pillars: “securing and serving the population, understanding local circumstances, separating irreconcilables from reconcilables and living among the people”.


By 2011, America’s cost of war in Afghanistan hovered around a colossal $500 billion and the US had incurred 1,814 fatalities.

By 2011, Petraeus’ four pillars had begun to fall flat – one by one. America could no longer sustain the war in Afghanistan – neither politically nor financially. Finally, President Obama, in a prime time speech, bought into the Kayani Doctrine by announcing a troop drawdown schedule. On December 2, 2012, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held talks with COAS General Ashfaq Kayani. This may have actually been the first formal buy-in of the Kayani Doctrine.


On December 17, the principal deputy assistant attorney general told a federal court in New York: “In the view of the United States, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is entitled to immunity because it is part of a foreign state within the meaning of the FSIA (Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act).” This may have actually been an implicit acceptance by the US of the ISI’s indispensability in the Afghan endgame (the doctrine’s second pillar).

On December 29, Pakistan received $688 million under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). According to the Ministry of Finance, “from May 2010 onwards Pakistan had asked for $2.5 billion under the CSF but only $1.9 billion have been reimbursed.”

On February 10, “two convoys each hauling 25 shipping containers entered Pakistan at the Chaman and Torkham borders” heading back to where they came from. To be certain, these convoys will be followed by a few thousand taking back around 750,000 major military items valued at close to $40 billion (the doctrine’s third pillar).


Indian defence analysts claim that the British have acted as the intermediaries in the latest US-Pakistan rapprochement and that Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are also involved in the game. Pakistan is once again becoming the centre piece in the Afghan endgame.


India’s Ambassador MK Bhadrakumar, who served in Islamabad, Kabul, Tashkent and Moscow, opines, “Washington is stonewalling India’s requests for the extradition of two key protagonists who are in the US jails – David Headley and Tahawwur Rana” and that “India’s worst fears with regard to the situation in Afghanistan are probably coming true.”

Apparently, India’s dream of encircling Pakistan is evaporating up in thin air (the doctrine’s last pillar). In all probability, Pakistan’s security challenges are going to become even more challenging after Nato pulls out of Afghanistan. With America gone, militants of all sorts and forms could team up in their attempt to subdue Pakistan. Apparently, the Pak Army does not have much of a doctrine for such a contingency.


The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com. Twitter: @Saleemfarrukh

understood

 

[Slayer786]

guys, you live in Indian subcontinent, so India will be everywhere, especially if Indian strategic interests are threatened. Learn to live with this fact, or migrate somewhere else.

Well sadly the fact is that we cannot change our neighbours and we are stuck with you guys. Depressing as it may be we have to accept it. But dont worry we will take upmost care to always threaten India's strategic interests. We will do what it takes to keep India in it toes and give sleepless nights to its security agencies. This is a promise from your neighbour.
Expect the worst from us.

 

[Tantrik]

1. That the Americans would withdraw was a foregone conclusion. They didn't come or intend to be there for ever.
2. Pakistan and ISI could be in hot waters - things may not be hunky-dory once the Americans leave.
3. The most viable route yes - and Americans will use it. Then bye bye.
4. Next time Afghans fight among themselves most of the world will sit around watching. And Pakistan will be drawn into another internecine war. India has generated ample goodwill among Afghans - and this value of 'soft power' is little understood by the Pakistanis.

Not much of a doctrine - if one may call it that.

 

[araz]

I was answering people who were complaining Indians interfere in Pakistani matters. All the best for your big games with big boys, we will rather play cautiously. we have no intension to punch above our weight.

In short when you get a royal jack up your behind you now want to play with little boys!!! Bhai look without your coloured glasses and see what is going on around you. No one wants to take on a fight with you. I REPEAT NO ONE want to take on a fight with you. But if you interfere into other peoples business you will get burned. And by the way if you think China is in your weight class be prepared for another hammering!!!
As they say in Urdu"Aur LO punga"
Araz

 

[Armstrong]

In short when you get a royal jack up your behind you now want to play with little boys!!! Bhai look without your coloured glasses and see what is going on around you. No one wants to take on a fight with you. I REPEAT NO ONE want to take on a fight with you. But if you interfere into other peoples business you will get burned. And by the way if you think China is in your weight class be prepared for another hammering!!!
As they say in Urdu"Aur LO punga"
Araz

Oh come on nothing beats Punjabi in that regard - Hun Hutth la ke weekh...mein tenuuu zameen tiii lanmbaa paaa davaann gaaa !

 

[Paan Singh]

In short when you get a royal jack up your behind you now want to play with little boys!!! Bhai look without your coloured glasses and see what is going on around you. No one wants to take on a fight with you. I REPEAT NO ONE want to take on a fight with you. But if you interfere into other peoples business you will get burned. And by the way if you think China is in your weight class be prepared for another hammering!!!
As they say in Urdu"Aur LO punga"
Araz

1)Same goes to you.
2)There is no chance of india china war or even skirmish.

 

[araz]

Oh come on nothing beats Punjabi in that regard - Hun Hutth la ke weekh...mein tenuuu zameen tiii lanmbaa paaa davaann gaaa !

What I said will leave the poor man nursing his nether region for days on end. I dont indulge in this debate usually but sometimes I cant help but feel that people have so much hatred that they will derail all threads into an Indo Pak mud slinging match.
On a serious note!!
The statement has been true to some extent in that the strategy of a thousand cuts by the Afghan Guerrilla movements has caused enough chaos for the US to think twice. I wonder whether the Afghans would have viewed the US invasion in the same light if instead of the spectre of seeing their country men in cages and in extrajudicial custody, US had made an effort at developing the infrastructure in Afghanistan not only for its own subsequent benefit but also for the benefit of the Afghans. Water supply in the form of wells, perhaps limited opportunities of farming as a consequence of it, education and treatment of the afghans with respect in view of their heritage and traditions would have achieved their ends much more cheaper than what it has cost them. I think development in exchange for peace would have worked far better.
Pakistan and its ISI cannot be excluded from the procedings primarily because we speak the same language and share the same culture and we have cultivated links with the Mujahideen for well over 4 decades. As such to exclude us was a politicial and strategic oversight which ill befits the US polity.
Pakistan has its own troubles to contend with.We firstly need to accept that our involvement in the WOT was an unpopular decision both amongst the masses and the forces in gnenral. You cannot overnight change your directions towards people whom you have helped into position of power and established and start treating them like enemies. As a process of establishement rightly or wrongly they were either provided or managed to acquire a base inside the tribal belt of Pakistan. Now the problem of ldislodgement of these people has led to its own set of problems. The US forces would cite the terrain as a diffcult one and a major reason for their failure but would not acccord the same courtesy to their pakistani allies. There has alaso been some duplicity in our dealings with the US which has further soured the trust element. The very lack of trust now between PA and the establishement post withdrawal of US forces would pose a major problem for the paksitani establishement. To further complicate matters we have been cursed with the most inefficient governement of all times which has done nothing other than line their own pockets. Doubtless there have been players from the outside who have been stirring the pot through their own agents or hired help. i suspect this situation will get even worse post withdrawal of US forces. PA in my humble opinion lacks both the will and the means to combat this unruliness and an inefficient internal ministry helped by hopelessly underarmed , underpaid and undertrained security establishement finds itself helpless to control the chaos that has ensued. Our own internal forces have complicated matters further by having turf wars within major cities of Sindh. The situation demands a strong Political setup with wide support base to rectify the basic problems and put the country on the path of sustainable growth and development.
Indian Aspirations aside, Pakistan is right to feel threatened if the indian influence in Afghanistan increases. We have had three major wars and the prospect of the fourth one looms large over our heads. The impact of the next war on the region in particular and the world in general is so phenominal that everything should be done to avoid it. It is very interesting to note that whenever peace overtures have beeen initiated form any side something or the other has happened to derail the movement. We are further hampered by the fact that our water supply comes through territory the ownership of which has been a hotpoint of debate ever since the two countries have come into existence( THANK YOU BLOODY BRITAIN!!!!). I think the two countries owe it to their public to sit together andsort their differences out on the basis of give and take. Once this has been done Pakistan can help India establish long and sustainable peace with China and thew region can put its resources to establish trade within its people. The prospects of growth in this case are such that it may even be worth India giving over its rights to some territroy in exchange for it. Is it logical______YES. Will it be allowed to happen__NO!! Why ? Because it does not serve the interests of various internal and external forces who want to maintain strife so that governemts think of Arms and ammo rather than trade and prosperity.
Araz

 

[araz]

Why is the Army being singled out for this?

What about the civilian agencies, its there job to maintain domestic security and they have failed horribly in that department. The Army has done much better considering how much budget is allotted to them. The current lapses in the domestic security is the failure of the civilian agencies and not the Army. The only institution that should share blame for this current impasse is the Interior Ministry, it is without a doubt one of the most incompetent institution in Pakistan. But ah well, we can't expect any miracles considering the fact that it is run by a complete idiot.

I dont think internal security was ever the remit of the armed forces. This is a political and administrative matter and blaming the army in the face of the limp dick performance of the Zardari Governement is a balatant ommission. I think the Government has failed miserably in its duties.
Araz

 

[naseem shah]

kayani ja raha hai is saal jatai jatai kuch kar kai to jai

 

[Dushmann]

Bhai look without your coloured glasses and see what is going on around you.

We prefer to see through tri-coloured glasses when it is question of national security and integrity of our borders.

No one wants to take on a fight with you. I REPEAT NO ONE want to take on a fight with you.

We are already in a fight. It started when Maharaja of Princely state of Jammu & Kashmir made his kingdom part of India; and Pakistan continued to illegally occupy the land that legally belongs to us. That apart from numerous other fights, in latest of which 5 CRPF Jawans were martyred.

But if you interfere into other peoples business you will get burned.

We usually know our strengths and our limits. We are confident we can manage the consequences of whatever we do. Are you sure you can afford the consequences of what you do?

And by the way if you think China is in your weight class be prepared for another hammering!!!

Woh hum dono aapas mein dekh lenge.

As they say in Urdu"Aur LO punga"

The very lack of trust now between PA and the establishement post withdrawal of US forces would pose a major problem for the paksitani establishement. To further complicate matters we have been cursed with the most inefficient governement of all times which has done nothing other than line their own pockets. Doubtless there have been players from the outside who have been stirring the pot through their own agents or hired help. i suspect this situation will get even worse post withdrawal of US forces. PA in my humble opinion lacks both the will and the means to combat this unruliness and an inefficient internal ministry helped by hopelessly underarmed , underpaid and undertrained security establishement finds itself helpless to control the chaos that has ensued.

"Aur LO punga"

our water supply comes through territory the ownership of which....blah..blah(belongs to India)

"Aur LO punga"

Pakistan can help India establish long and sustainable peace with China and thew region can put its resources to establish trade within its people. The prospects of growth in this case are such that it may even be worth India giving over its rights to some territroy in exchange for it.