Opinion - Saudis rattled by Pakistan's central role in creating Iran-China $400 billion deal

[Aspen]

I posted this in another thread but I am also making a separate thread so more people can see it:

The issue with Saudis is actually not Kashmir. I was watching a video from GVS News on YouTube that did an excellent analysis of the situation.

What basically happened is this: SMQ made some criticism in a statement about Saudis and OIC. At almost the same time Saudis suspended an oil deal and loan which was unrelated to anything SMQ said except the fact that it happened at around the same time. Indian media started speculating, they put 2+2 together and published a hit piece that Saudi is punishing Pakistan for brining up Kashmir at OIC by pulling oil deal and loan. However SMQ Kashmir statement and Saudi reaction is not related in any way besides the fact that it happened around the same time. Typically Indian media is garbage in Pakistan, but this story was a little bit different because Pakistanis themselves believe the same story about Saudis getting angry over Kashmir OIC that Indians cooked up and hence this is giving more credibility to Indian media on this story in Pakistan than normal because Pakistanis themselves are saying same thing as Indians.

Saudis are not angry about Kashmir. It might be a factor but it is a side issue for them. Saudis would not cancel an oil deal or call a loan over Kashmir dispute because Saudi is familiar with this Kashmir issue in Pakistan for decades and many years and it is not something new that happened recently. For Saudis, Kashmir is a tiny issue that does not matter to them or affect them in any way. Saudis do not care about Kashmir, it is irrelevant distraction for them, and they would not take drastic steps over something irrelevant to them like Kashmir. There is something else completely separate going on besides Kashmir that caused Saudis to react like this so suddenly. So Kashmir is not the reason for this tension.

Nothing in Kashmir has changed recently. But something else big in Pakistan did change recently.

Think outside the box. Kashmir is small for Saudis. There is a different problem involving Pakistan for Saudis way bigger than Kashmir.

There is something much bigger in Pakistan that is going on that is a problem for Saudis....

Something big has changed recently and suddenly in Pakistan and it is not Kashmir. Think bigger. Much bigger.

Now think about this:

1. What event and recent development happened in last few weeks that involves Pakistan and is very bad for Saudi?

2. What huge change could be a bigger problem for Saudi-Pakistan that has nothing to do with Kashmir?

Remember that Iran-China $400 billion deal from few weeks ago?

That $400 billion Iran-China deal could not have happened without heavy Pakistani involvement.

Basically, in the eyes of Saudis, Pakistan was responsible for pumping $400 billion into Iranian economy vis a vis China.

Saudis are furious at Pakistan for this. Not only was Pakistan at the table between Iran and China to sign this $400 billion deal, it was probably Pakistan that gave Iran and China the idea and brought them to the table to sign this deal in the first place by helping to facilitate and connect the two with CPEC infrastructure links. Now what incentive does Pakistan have to do something like this? From Pakistan's perspective, if the Iran-China deal is $400 billion, probably $100 billion of this will directly or indirectly find its way into Pakistan's economy through infrastructure links either connected, added, or merged from Iran to China into existing Pakistan CPEC infrastructure. It was also in Pakistan's interests to kick India out of Iran and stabilize its borders by getting Iran into Chinese camp. So this $400 billion Iran-China is great news for Iran, Pakistan, and China.

But you know who its bad news for? Saudis, Israelis, and US. Saudis were watching Pakistan in this deal like a hawk. Saudis don't care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, but with China's help, Pakistan singlehandedly engineered the single biggest economic deal in Iran's history since the Iranian Revolution, which set off every alarm in Riyadh. Saudis were caught blindsided and utterly flatfooted by this move. For years, Saudis thought Pakistan was their puppet and that they could ignore Kashmir without consequences. Well, actions have consequences, a lesson the Saudis would soon learn. While the Saudis were busy dumping Kashmir to focus on isolating Qatar and killing Jamal Khashoggi, Pakistan was quietly cooking up its own plans to distance itself from Saudis and get closer to Iran which gave Pakistan among the strongest support for Kashmir along with Turkey and Malaysia. An Iran-China deal was always a long shot that was never really possible on a big scale without Pakistan being onboard with it. For a while Pakistan didn't want to get involved in this, mainly due to what Pakistan believed to be Saudi pressure. However, a change of view and shift of opinion in Islamabad may have occurred after Saudi pressured Pakistan to boycott the Malaysia summit. In this sense, Kashmir was small the issue that triggered the much bigger issues later on. Imran Khan at some point must have realized that acting in alignment with Saudis would inherently mean going against Pakistan's national interest. And it is from this day that Pakistan began realigning itself, quietly with Iran on which Pakistan agrees on many issues. Iran supports Pakistan on Kashmir, but in reality, it is just a piece of one of many things that Pakistan and Iran agree on. Both agree that China is the future, both agree on Kashmir, both have economic difficulties, both share a border, both have common enemies with India/Israel alliance. Saudis disagree with both Iran+Pakistan on almost all of these key issues. It was natural that as both Islamabad and Tehran's tension with Riyadh and Washington increased that Pakistan would look to counter it by leveraging their influence in Tehran and Beijing as Tehran did in Islamabad. The result of this gradual realignment that started after Malaysia summit fiasco was Pakistan's increased willingness to take opposite side of Saudis over a period of time. The ultimate result of these efforts by Pakistan to bridge the gap between Iran and China economically and physically is the $400 billion deal that was unveiled recently.

While Saudis might not care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, they will be angry at Pakistan for facilitating recent Iran-China deal which is a much bigger deal for them than Kashmir as unlike Kashmir, a stronger Iran backed by Pakistan and China has grave implications that directly undermine Saudi interests. Saudis feel that they must punish Pakistan for this, and as it happened, this reaction happened to come at same time as SMQ statement on Kashmir even though Saudi tension has nothing to do with it other than a timing coincidence.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Just speculation

• Iran is important for China as it produces Oil , a resource China needs
• Iran produces rare Pistachios
• Iran is agricultural Hub
• Iran is naturally desirable for a Power (Fossil Fuel Driven country) like China
• Iran scientist / PHD capacity is desirable for any Space project / Science project

Pakistan is focused on trade, Iran-China deal is China's own national interest


If China builds Military relations with Iran that has nothing to do with Pakistan , China is a independent nation who has relation with many countries of world


For Saudi-Iranian relations, that is their own personal matter they should sit on table to sort

• If China wants it can sell 200 J-10B to iran as part of Military alliance

Pakistan's general objective is peace in our Neighborhood and increase of global trade

 

[zhxy]

This deal, the biggest loser is China

 

[Aspen]

Just speculation

• Iran is important for China as it produces Oil , a resource China needs
• Iran produces rare Pistachios
• Iran is agricultural Hub

Pakistan is focused on trade, Iran-China deal is China's own national interest

I completely agree, but the point is that Pakistan allows Iran-China deal to be much bigger than it otherwise would be. Pakistan allows physical infrastructure links in CPEC that makes Iran-China deal much more cost efficient, practical, and useful. Iran-China agreement is economically and also literally an extension of CPEC that will have a substantial and direct positive impact on Pakistan's economy.

It is a win-win-win. Iran benefits, Pakistan benefits, China benefits. Losers are Israel, Saudi, India, US.

 

[Bouncer]

Not only was Pakistan at the table between Iran and China to sign this $400 billion deal

Any proof? Your theory seems solid but it is a bit far fetched that China and Iran would need Pakistan for their deal.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Pakistan Karachi Ka Nala to fix ker nahi sakta , let us be practical , every Moon Soon rain fishing is happening on streets.

My statement may be blunt but it is practical

Let us be real folks , we are a Nation still finding and fixing our broken systems

a) Political
b) Judicial
c) Municipal
d) Criminals are routinely being freed by Corrupt courts

Every next day , Nawaz Sheriff Family is disrupting by performing criminal acts against internal systems

Pakistan, has a place in dialog but ultimately China-Iran , collaboration is their own strategic initiative

If Iran did not had sanctions they would be Similar strength in world as Germany their Education/ Workforce and mindset is similar to Germans

People do realize they do have their own National Space Program which has launched a Rocket in Space

 

[Aspen]

Any proof? Your theory seems solid but it is a bit far fetched that China and Iran would need Pakistan for their deal.

It is not far fetched at all, what was the alternative?

We are not talking about some small level trade deal, this is a mega infrastructure deal worth almost half a trillion that requires a physical link from China to Iran to be practical or even useful.

 

[aryobarzan]

I posted this in another thread but I am also making a separate thread so more people can see it:

The issue with Saudis is actually not Kashmir. I was watching a video from GVS News on YouTube that did an excellent analysis of the situation.

What basically happened is this: SMQ made some criticism in a statement about Saudis and OIC. At almost the same time Saudis suspended an oil deal and loan which was unrelated to anything SMQ said except the fact that it happened at around the same time. Indian media started speculating, they put 2+2 together and published a hit piece that Saudi is punishing Pakistan for brining up Kashmir at OIC by pulling oil deal and loan. However SMQ Kashmir statement and Saudi reaction is not related in any way besides the fact that it happened around the same time. Typically Indian media is garbage in Pakistan, but this story was a little bit different because Pakistanis themselves believe the same story about Saudis getting angry over Kashmir OIC that Indians cooked up and hence this is giving more credibility to Indian media on this story in Pakistan than normal because Pakistanis themselves are saying same thing as Indians.

Saudis are not angry about Kashmir. It might be a factor but it is a side issue for them. Saudis would not cancel an oil deal or call a loan over Kashmir dispute because Saudi is familiar with this Kashmir issue in Pakistan for decades and many years and it is not something new that happened recently. For Saudis, Kashmir is a tiny issue that does not matter to them or affect them in any way. Saudis do not care about Kashmir, it is irrelevant distraction for them, and they would not take drastic steps over something irrelevant to them like Kashmir. There is something else completely separate going on besides Kashmir that caused Saudis to react like this so suddenly. So Kashmir is not the reason for this tension.

Nothing in Kashmir has changed recently. But something else big in Pakistan did change recently.

Think outside the box. Kashmir is small for Saudis. There is a different problem involving Pakistan for Saudis way bigger than Kashmir.

There is something much bigger in Pakistan that is going on that is a problem for Saudis....

Something big has changed recently and suddenly in Pakistan and it is not Kashmir. Think bigger. Much bigger.

Now think about this:

1. What event and recent development happened in last few weeks that involves Pakistan and is very bad for Saudi?

2. What huge change could be a bigger problem for Saudi-Pakistan that has nothing to do with Kashmir?

Remember that Iran-China $400 billion deal from few weeks ago?

That $400 billion Iran-China deal could not have happened without heavy Pakistani involvement.

Basically, in the eyes of Saudis, Pakistan was responsible for pumping $400 billion into Iranian economy vis a vis China.

Saudis are furious at Pakistan for this. Not only was Pakistan at the table between Iran and China to sign this $400 billion deal, it was probably Pakistan that gave Iran and China the idea and brought them to the table to sign this deal in the first place by helping to facilitate and connect the two with CPEC infrastructure links. Now what incentive does Pakistan have to do something like this? From Pakistan's perspective, if the Iran-China deal is $400 billion, probably $100 billion of this will directly or indirectly find its way into Pakistan's economy through infrastructure links either connected, added, or merged from Iran to China into existing Pakistan CPEC infrastructure. It was also in Pakistan's interests to kick India out of Iran and stabilize its borders by getting Iran into Chinese camp. So this $400 billion Iran-China is great news for Iran, Pakistan, and China.

But you know who its bad news for? Saudis, Israelis, and US. Saudis were watching Pakistan in this deal like a hawk. Saudis don't care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, but with China's help, Pakistan singlehandedly engineered the single biggest economic deal in Iran's history since the Iranian Revolution, which set off every alarm in Riyadh. Saudis were caught blindsided and utterly flatfooted by this move. For years, Saudis thought Pakistan was their puppet and that they could ignore Kashmir without consequences. Well, actions have consequences, a lesson the Saudis would soon learn. While the Saudis were busy dumping Kashmir to focus on isolating Qatar and killing Jamal Khashoggi, Pakistan was quietly cooking up its own plans to distance itself from Saudis and get closer to Iran which gave Pakistan among the strongest support for Kashmir along with Turkey and Malaysia. An Iran-China deal was always a long shot that was never really possible on a big scale without Pakistan being onboard with it. For a while Pakistan didn't want to get involved in this, mainly due to what Pakistan believed to be Saudi pressure. However, a change of view and shift of opinion in Islamabad may have occurred after Saudi pressured Pakistan to boycott the Malaysia summit. In this sense, Kashmir was small the issue that triggered the much bigger issues later on. Imran Khan at some point must have realized that acting in alignment with Saudis would inherently mean going against Pakistan's national interest. And it is from this day that Pakistan began realigning itself, quietly with Iran on which Pakistan agrees on many issues. Iran supports Pakistan on Kashmir, but in reality, it is just a piece of one of many things that Pakistan and Iran agree on. Both agree that China is the future, both agree on Kashmir, both have economic difficulties, both share a border, both have common enemies with India/Israel alliance. Saudis disagree with both Iran+Pakistan on almost all of these key issues. It was natural that as both Islamabad and Tehran's tension with Riyadh and Washington increased that Pakistan would look to counter it by leveraging their influence in Tehran and Beijing as Tehran did in Islamabad. The result of this gradual realignment that started after Malaysia summit fiasco was Pakistan's increased willingness to take opposite side of Saudis over a period of time. The ultimate result of these efforts by Pakistan to bridge the gap between Iran and China economically and physically is the $400 billion deal that was unveiled recently.

While Saudis might not care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, they will be angry at Pakistan for facilitating recent Iran-China deal which is a much bigger deal for them than Kashmir as unlike Kashmir, a stronger Iran backed by Pakistan and China has grave implications that directly undermine Saudi interests. Saudis feel that they must punish Pakistan for this, and as it happened, this reaction happened to come at same time as SMQ statement on Kashmir even though Saudi tension has nothing to do with it other than a timing coincidence.

I agree with your statements regarding the importance of Kashmir to Saudis. The deal happened simply because it benefit China and Iran and has important positive implications for Pakistan. If Pakistan acted as a catalyst for this deal then that is great and as you mentioned this will also infuriate the saudis to the level to change their Puppet/Master view of Pakistan..Imran Khan is a smart leader to avoid becoming a second " Saad Hariri " to the MBS. This deal serves the natural alignments of China, Pakistan and Iran. As the famous British war criminal Churchill once said " Countries do not have friends...they have interests".

 

[Aspen]

I agree with your statements regarding the importance of Kashmir to Saudis. The deal happened simply because it benefit China and Iran and has important positive implications for Pakistan. If Pakistan acted as a catalyst for this deal then that is great and as you mentioned this will also infuriate the saudis to the level to change their Puppet/Master view of Pakistan..Imran Khan is a smart leader to avoid becoming a second " Saad Hariri " to the MBS. This deal serves the natural alignments of China, Pakistan and Iran. As the famous British war criminal Churchill once said " Countries do not have friends...they have interests".

Agreed

 

[Bouncer]

It is not far fetched at all, what was the alternative?

We are not talking about some small level trade deal, this is a mega infrastructure deal worth almost half a trillion that requires a physical link from China to Iran to be practical or even useful.

No I am not disagreeing with your premise. One would assume that Saudis would take it as a stab in the back if Pakistan were to be involved in Iran-China deal. I am just saying why would China and Iran need Pakistan to play facilitator? Its not like Afghanistan where we have influence and its most certainly not like US and China of 60s/70s. Iranis are pretty active diplomatically themselves and Chinese already have a lot of interests inside Iran. I recall reading about Chinese state owned petro companies investing heavily in Iran.

 

[Bouncer]

And then there's also the Pakistani angle. Any Pakistani diplomat worth his salt would have anticipated the Saudi, and even worse, American backlash for such a move. So I am sure they wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole. Unless they grew some balls and decided to get rid of Saudi/GCC/US influence which I don't think so.

 

[Bouncer]

Pakistan Karachi Ka Nala to fix ker nahi sakta , let us be practical , every Moon Soon rain fishing is happening on streets.

My statement may be blunt but it is practical

Sir I always say it as a joke that Pakistan suffers from multiple personality disorder. Basically there two versions of Pakistan. One Pakistan is lazy, corrupt and generally a moron in diplomacy, cricket, defence etc.

But then there's the other Pakistan. And that Pakistan is mean. You don't want to underestimate it because just when you do, it will come out from nowhere and get you. Nuclear weapons program, standing up to two super power of their time in Afghanistan were done by this Pakistan. Our charity initiatives and those brilliant cricket moments were also by this Pakistan. Corona virus situation was also handled by this Pakistan. So this Iran situation is also possible.

 

[Aspen]

No I am not disagreeing with your premise. One would assume that Saudis would take it as a stab in the back if Pakistan were to be involved in Iran-China deal. I am just saying why would China and Iran need Pakistan to play facilitator? Its not like Afghanistan where we have influence and its most certainly not like US and China of 60s/70s. Iranis are pretty active diplomatically themselves and Chinese already have a lot of interests inside Iran. I recall reading about Chinese state owned petro companies investing heavily in Iran.

I understand what you are saying but understand what I am saying as well.

It's easy to think this Iran deal is just another one of China's many BRI deals and sweep it under the rug but its not. China doesn't have direct physical links to every country they sign agreements with. How many countries can you count that have signed deals with China more than $100 billion? Trade deals and infrastructure deals are not the same thing. Trade deals don't require infrastructure, infrastructure deals of this scale require physical links. There is no way China would have invested $400 billion without some iron clad agreement of a direct physical link that more or less has to go through Pakistan. Why? Because building the kind of infrastructure that costs $200 billion cannot be done without a physical link to transport construction and supplies. This is not some small port in Africa that costs $50 million and can be built with a couple of ships in a few weeks and boom its done. For a $400 billion infrastructure deal, you need all kinds of links, road, rail, etc. some of which don't even exist right now because they have to be created in Pakistan first so they can be extended to Iran later over a period of many years.

 

[PeacefulWar]

Saudi and GCC are slowly aware of they can't count on oil forever now.
They are looking for new directions.
They won't spend money/make enemies for religion reasons anymore. Because they realized they are not that important to USA and slowly other major powers are heavily investing into new energy.
They don't feel safe anymore.

Nothing to do with any deals. If there is, that's just a convenient execuse.

 

[maverick1977]

Every Country has an independent policy.. There are alliances based on whats best for each country. Prosperous Iran, China, Afghanistan, Turkey and Central Asian states will lead to prosperity in Pakistan. Prosperity means stability.