Opinion poll Study by puchtoon

[Puchtoon]

Hi,Since many were criticizing old opinion polls which went horribly wrong in 2004 elections, so i did a study with recent assembly in 4 Northern states and here are my results

Remember in polls what pollster get is only Voteshare(VS) and seat conversion is different thing.


Margin of error(MOE) +- 3% is NORMAL



NOTE:For seat conversion look at this article Poll forecasting: How to convert votes into seats - Livemint

Opinion Poll(EXIT) checking done by me : Cvoter(very credible)


M.P


MP VS in Cvoter poll ~ BJP 43% Cong 39%
Results ~ BJP 45.7% Cong 37.1%


RJ

RJ VS in Cvoter poll ~ BJP 42% Cong 34%
Results ~ BJP 46% Cong 33.7%


CG
CG VS in Cvoter poll ~ BJP 43% Cong 41%
Results ~ BJP 42.3% Cong 41.6%


DELHI

Delhi VS in Cvoter poll ~ BJP 33% Cong 30% AAP 29%
Results ~ BJP 33.3% Cong 24.7% AAP 29.7%


Results:
Perfect prediction of CG,Roughly within margin of Error in MP & RJ,Predicted exact voteshare for AAP in delhi but missed cong decline .


Opinion Poll(EXIT) checking done by me : CSDS(highly credible)


M.P


MP VS in CSDS poll ~ BJP 41% Cong 35%
Results ~ BJP 45.7% Cong 37.1%


RJ

RJ VS in CSDS poll ~ BJP 43% Cong 33%
Results ~ BJP 46% Cong 33.7%


CG
CG VS in CSDS poll ~ BJP 42% Cong 38%
Results ~ BJP 42.3% Cong 41.6%


DELHI

Delhi VS in CSDS poll ~ BJP 33% Cong 23% AAP 27%
Results ~ BJP 33.3% Cong 24.7% AAP 29.7%

Results:
Perfect prediction of DELHI,Roughly within margin of Error in MP,CG & RJ.


Opinion Poll(EXIT) checking done by me : CFore(Not much credible)

Results:
By Voteshare CFORE got Only Chattisgarh right


Opinion Poll(EXIT) checking done by me : MARG-ORG(OK!)


India Today-ORG post-poll survey gives BJP 4-0 victory over Congress : Elections, News - India Today



Results:
Voteshare to seatshare everything wrong









Can add more on demand

 

[Puchtoon]

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[ranjeet]

....

Such opinion polls does capture the trend and they reflect the correct data to a degree but it can't be taken as gospel.

 

[Puchtoon]

Such opinion polls does capture the trend and they reflect the correct data to a degree but it can't be taken as gospel.

agree,no one said they are gospel

 

[VeeraBahadur]

We never doubted these opinion polls , it's Kongs who are trying to ban opinion polls .

These polls can be believed with 3% vote share and 10% seats error margin.

 

[ranjeet]

agree,no one said they are gospel

I might be wrong but in today's timesnow the BJP and it's supporter were sounding a bit overwhelmed and I hope they don't get complacent.
PS ..... hell of a job with the first post man.

 

[Butchcassidy]

how is NDA going to make up for the numbers it is short off??
that is the question my friends

 

[VeeraBahadur]

I might be wrong but in today's timesnow the BJP and it's supporter were sounding a bit overwhelmed and I hope they don't get complacent.
PS ..... hell of a job with the first post man.

With Modi at helm you would only see BJP leaders getting more active than they were previous day.

Just wait for announcement of candidates and you will see how frantic BJP leaders becomes.

 

[Puchtoon]

We never doubted these opinion polls , it's Kongs who are trying to ban opinion polls .

These polls can be believed with 3% vote share and 10% seats error margin.

Seatshare is different thing ,parties can win huge seats with less voteshare and sometimes can draw blank with huge chunk of VS,it depends of area of concentration .

Opinion polls in recent past have gone horribly wrong in pridicting VS but if they go wrong for one time ,they have come out correct in other other 9 chance .

Pollsters like cvoter are now doing projections fortnights so things can be checked time to time .

I might be wrong but in today's timesnow the BJP and it's supporter were sounding a bit overwhelmed and I hope they don't get complacent.
PS ..... hell of a job with the first post man.

Thanks

True,its for present but things can change in hours and parties loose momentum .

how is NDA going to make up for the numbers it is short off??
that is the question my friends

NDA allies will be around 45(including TDP etc) so bjp need 225 for majority ,at 200 it requires jaya

 

[VeeraBahadur]

how is NDA going to make up for the numbers it is short off??
that is the question my friends

By adding 15-20 independents , 10-12 TDP and possibly 6 seats of JDU.

Amma and Patnaik may or may not be needed.

 

[arp2041]

By adding 15-20 independents , 10-12 TDP and possibly 6 seats of JDU.

Amma and Patnaik may or may not be needed.

272 is just majority mark.

for comfortable running of Govt. NDA will need 300+

But if BJP do get 200+ on it's own, i don't think 300+ to NDA will be tough, no party (which could have joined NDA) would want to see elections, so you can say Mamata, Mayawati, Jaya, TDP even BJD joining NDA or supporting from outside (that's around 80+ seats!!!!)

 

[Puchtoon]

But if BJP do get 200+ on it's own, i don't think 300+ to NDA will be tough, no party (which could have joined NDA) would want to see elections, so you can say Mamata, Mayawati, Jaya, TDP even BJD joining NDA or supporting from outside (that's around 80+ seats!!!!)

EKJHACTLY !

 

[kbd-raaf]

A 3% margin of error in voteshare can equal to a lot of seats.

 

[arp2041]

A 3% margin of error in voteshare can equal to a lot of seats.

Mate, just the FACT is that there is no way UPA is coming back to power. The only question remains is will it be unstable NDA, stable NDA or highly unstable Third Front Govt.??

 

[NKVD]

Opinion polls are just a trend to access what is the mood of nation as for comparing 2004 with 2014 is not suitable itself because the methodlogy of taking survey is improved to very far extent now days