Operation Rah-e-Rast (Swat)

[ausafa]

Its a great movement to swat.....May Allah give Fateh to Pak army.


Aamin !!!


The Muslim Matrimonial.com

 

[Owais]

Tribal lashkar destroy militants hideout in Upper Dir

Updated at: 1158 PST, Thursday, June 11, 2009
Tribal lashkar destroy militants hideout in Upper Dir SWAT: Security forces operation against militants is going on in Malakand Division.

Search operation is underway in different areas of Dir Lower while a hideout of militants has been destroyed in Upper Dir.

Security forces pounded militants’ positions in various areas of tehsil Maidan of Dir Lower, however no causality was reported in the shelling.

According to military sources, search operation has been launched in Ghoraghat and Asbanar areas of tehsil Adenzai. The notables of Lajbok area of Maidan met with operation commander Brigadier Amalzada Khan and informed him that a national lashkar would be formed against militants.

On the other hand, national lashkar overnight continued its action against militants in Shotkas and Ghazigai areas. A hideout of militants has been completely destroyed in Ghazigai. Security forces shelled militants’ positions with heavy artillery in upper areas of Matta and Kabal in district Swat and Manglore, an adjoining area of Mingora. No loss of life was reported in the shelling.

Curfew would be relaxed till 7:00 pm in Dir Lower and Buner whereas no relaxation in district Swat. Main GT Road has been under curfew from Dargai to Chakdara in Malakand Agency.
Tribal lashkar destroy militants hideout in Upper Dir - GEO.tv

 

[Owais]

Army strike continues as 66 more militants killed, nine nabbed

RAWALPINDI (updated on: June 11, 2009, 14:45 PST): Director General ISPR Major Ather Abbas has said that sixty six terrorists were killed and nine were apprehended, while one civilian was killed and two were injured in various areas of Malakand, Bunnu and South Waziristan. At the same time, four soldiers martyred and 12 were injured including an officer.

According to ISPR press release, Security forces secured Kotka Saifullah and Sara Bangal. Terrorists fired two rockets at Bannu city, resultantly one civilian was killed and two were injured.

During search operation at Sara Bangal, 34 terrorists were killed, while three terrorists were apprehended.

The operation to secure Zindi Khan by security forces is under way.

South Waziristan. Late last night about 400 terrorists attacked Siplatoi and Jandola Fort, resultantly three soldiers martyred and five were injured, while 22 terrorists were killed and large number injured.

Forces are consolidating their positions at secured areas of Kabbal, while operation in remaining area is in progress. During exchange of fire with terrorists, three soldiers were injured.

Army commenced search and destroy operation at Ashro Kandao, Arkot Qilla, Shakardarra, Matta triangle, Sakhra, Matta - Khararai and Sarai on the west of Martung.

Security forces secured Sijban on Runial-Chuprial route. During exchange of fire with terrorists three soldiers were injured.

During exchange of fire between security forces and terrorists in Peochar area, one soldier was injured, while 10 terrorists were killed and six were apprehended.

The siege of villages Shatkas and Ghazigae by Lashkar is continuing. During exchange of fire at Shatkas, lashkar destroyed terrorists bunkers and three hide outs including 1 ammunition dump.

Terrorists fire raided at Zohaib Post near Lal Qilla, resultantly one soldier martyred.

An IED planted by terrorists was exploded on Ambela - Daggar road, resultantly three vehicles were partially damaged. A terrorist house was destroyed at Gatkala. Security forces secured Gat Khela and Jowar area.

Major repair work of main electricity line up to Mingora has been completed with the support of the Army.

Three trucks of rations and non food items were distributed among the stranded people of Swat valley

 

[Neo]

Reverse psychology: Taliban beheadings spur on cop to fight​

* Inspector and six men under his command successfully resist Taliban attempts to overrun police station in Swat​

PESHAWAR: While the fear of being beheaded by the Taliban forced several policemen to abandon the force, it also injected a spirit of resistance among others such as Hussain Badshah – an officer who resisted Taliban attempts to overrun Rahimabad police station for four days and came out victorious.

“I had realised the Taliban would behead me if I surrendered … I decided to fight,” 48-year-old Hussain from Karak told Daily Times on Wednesday, after he was honoured for “an exceptional act of valour” against in Swat.

It is for the first time in the history of frontier police that two Pakistan Army major generals – Maj Gen Ijaz Awan and Maj Gen Athar Abbas – pinned badges to a policeman’s shoulders for an act of bravery. Hussain, previously an inspector, was also promoted to the rank of DSP.

Such valour in Swat does not go unnoticed, as most policemen have deserted the force out of fear of the Taliban – who have killed and beheaded around 100 policemen in the district since mid 2007.

A group of 40 policemen under Hussain’s command was guarding the Rahimabad police station, which is surrounded by the Taliban strongholds of Rehmanabad, Amankot, Belogram and Qambar.

“Our police station was attacked on May 2 from all sides with heavy weapons ... the Taliban were demanding that we surrender. Those with Swat domiciles in the group began deserting the force one by one, leaving the police station in civil dress,” said Hussain, adding he observed the situation with two things in mind: “fight, and I could survive … surrender, and I might be beheaded”. He went for the first option – a decision that brought him rare honour.

Husaain said following the peace deal with the Taliban, he group began inviting people for jihadi training. “We were realising the arrangement wasn’t going to last long and mentally preparing ourselves for another round of battle sooner than later. Left with just six of my men, I began getting worried about the weapons and ammunition in the station, as it was not possible to guard the police station with such small number of people. I thought of the weapons, and told myself that if they fell into the hands of the Taliban, they would be used against the army … that I did not want,” he said.

“So, after facing a barrage of rockets and bullets for three days and as many nights, I finally decided on May 4 to leave the police station and join paramilitary soldiers at a grid station nearby, mainly because I wanted to keep the weapons – SMGs, G3 rifles and LMGs – out of Taliban hands.”

Hussain loaded all the weapons into a vehicle and sped towards the grid station, which was being guarded by the Frontier Corps (FC). “I was relieved when we were with the FC, the weapons and ammunition secure.”

 

[Neo]

Over 100 killed as troops target Taliban in Bannu​

* ISPR says 600-800 Taliban reach Jani Khel, planning to strike parts of NWFP
* One killed, two injured in Taliban rocket attack​

LAHORE: Troops killed more than 100 Taliban during two days of operation in Jani Khel and Baka Khel areas of Frontier Region (FR) Bannu, a private TV channel reported on Wednesday.

According to the channel, Taliban commander Sher Alam is among the dead.

Security forces are pounding Taliban positions with gunship helicopters and artillery shells, the channel said.

Taliban: Up to 800 Taliban have reportedly arrived in the semi-tribal area of FR Bannu that borders North Waziristan to fight the army that has started an operation in the area.

“Reportedly 600 to 800 terrorists reached Jani Khel from Miranshah and Razmak. They are planning to strike at various places in the NWFP,” the military said in a press release.

The operation was launched after Jani Khel tribesmen failed to hand over Taliban involved in the abduction of hundreds of students and staff of Razmak Cadet College last week.

Troops moved in on Monday after talks between two tribes thought to be involved in the brazen abduction and political administration broke down.

“Forces pounded the militant hideouts for the whole night and in the morning in Jani Khel tribal area,” local police official Khalil Zaman told AFP. “Authorities have imposed curfew in some areas.”

Rocket attack: Also in Bannu, a man was killed and two others wounded when Taliban fired a rocket at a house, AFP reported. daily times monitor/staff report/afp

 

[Neo]

Early villagers' challenge to Taliban​

EDITORIAL (June 09 2009): Reports from Upper Dir indicate that the local villagers have risen against the Taliban. In the fighting over the last two days they have killed over a dozen Taliban fighters and burnt several houses of their hosts. The so-far non-aligned population of the area is said to be greatly incensed at the killing of some 40 fellow villagers including many children when a suicide-bomber exploded him in a mosque just before the Friday prayers.

The development was described by the Army's chief spokesman Major General Athar Abbas as a positive step as the people have all the right to rise and drive those miscreants out of their area in the wake of Friday tragedy. It has been a long-standing desire of the government that the local population should stand up to the Taliban militants who are generally outsiders but enjoy local hospitality.

This hospitality is often voluntary for reason of identical ideological stances but sometimes it is made available against hard cash. But the fear driven into the hearts of the people by ruthless killings inflicted by the Taliban on those who raised 'lashkars' tends to tamp down the incentive to challenge heavily-armed and extremely motivated Taliban militants.

Now that military operation has significantly degraded Taliban's clout in the Malakand region it is not surprising that the people of Upper Dir have launched the move to oust extremists from their area. Given the broad and deep penetration the Taliban have made into the tribal society their influence and presence has to be confronted on three major fronts.

Firstly, the backlash the Taliban have unleashed by way of dispatching suicide-bombers to all important security establishments - and even scored some spectacular successes, for instance in Lahore - has to be blunted. No question about the determination of the defenders of these points but the absence of proper training and technology required to intercept and neutralise the intending bombers is clearly detectable.

We have been hearing of putting on ground a special anti-terrorist force, but it is not there yet. No doubt of late there have been some spectacular breakthroughs made by the intelligence agencies in pre-empting suicide-bombings. But what happens after the would-be bombers are arrested we would like to know more.

Secondly, no effort, howsoever exacting, should be spared to keep the IDPs issue under watch and control as it has the potential area for exploitation by the Taliban either by infiltrating it or by triggering media trial of its official handling.

Thirdly, the local populations in the Taliban-infested areas must be motivated and helped to raise and equip militias to take on the Taliban who are mostly outsiders - a task made easier now that the back of Taliban resistance has been broken by the armed forces. By all available signs the fight against Talibanisation is seen to have arrived at the tipping point. That momentum has to be maintained, for this is war in which there is no no-win option for Pakistan.

 

[muse]

Rabzon, Fatman, SSGPA1

Please review the article below and see if you agree in the light of your recent reading, especially if the author has it right with regard to what it means



Taliban show sophisticated tactics in Pakistan

* Experts say Taliban have become more aggressive, going for head-on collision with government

ISLAMABAD: Two commando-style assaults in Pakistan in the past two weeks show Taliban can now pierce the iron-fortified gates, concrete barricades and cordons of armed guards that are meant to secure hotels, housing compounds and even police stations across the country.

The level of organisation and sophistication of the attacks has been rarely seen in Pakistan. They are designed to send a message that if the military launches an offensive against the Taliban’s stronghold near the Afghan border it will face a highly determined and well-prepared enemy, analysts say.

A team of suicide assailants in two vehicles opened fire on security guards, then were able to drive through the main gate of the Pearl Continental hotel in Peshawar late on Tuesday and detonate a huge bomb close enough to the building to collapse part of the reinforced concrete structure.

The tactics mirrored closely an assault exactly two weeks earlier on a police building and the regional headquarters of the Inter-Services Intelligence in Lahore.

Mahmood Shah, a former chief of security in the tribal region, said the Peshawar and Lahore attacks mark a shift in strategy for the militants, whose attacks previously have often involved lone assailants with suicide vests, small improvised bombs or gun ambushes.

“It is an improvement in their tactics; they are trying to enter the target through use of force,” Shah said. “It appears that they are in a hurry and they are becoming more aggressive,” he added.

The rush may be due to a widespread expectation that the military is planning to launch a major operation against the Taliban in North and South Waziristan. No plans have been announced, but the military success of the offensive to oust the Taliban from Swat ans surrounding areas has emboldened the government and the armed forces, officials say.

The purpose of the Taliban’s carefully planned attacks was “to send a message to the government to stay away from Waziristan, which is their base,” said Hasan-Askari Rizvi, a defence and political analyst.

“It seems that they are now going for a head-on collision” with the government, he said.

A day after the May 27 Lahore attack, a senior spokesman claimed responsibility for the Taliban and warned of a wider campaign of violence in major Pakistani cities in retaliation Swat offensive.

The offensive is seen as a test of Pakistan’s resolve in fighting militancy and is strongly supported by Washington, where officials have said privately they would welcome a broader operation in the tribal belt.

In September, before the Swat offensive began, a dump truck loaded with explosives blew up outside the Marriott hotel in the capital, Islamabad, killing more than 50 people. In that attack, the truck was driven up to barriers blocking the entrance of the hotel but did not drive through.

Tuesday’s attack prompted fresh concerns about security at embassies and other places where foreigners gather. At Western-styled stores and restaurants in Islamabad, gates and guards with shotguns are already the norm, while the US Embassy and most other foreign missions are clustered within a compound surrounded by a high several other layers of security.

Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University in Washington, said such tactics have been used before by Pakistani militant groups in Kashmir, but they have been limited in scope because of the level of military precision required.

“It is very difficult to defend against as it is a forced-entry attack by determined, even suicidal adversaries,” Hoffman said in an e-mailed response to questions. “Like the Mumbai attacks last November, this attack shows a high level of training, discipline, command and control and pre-attack intelligence”.

Other terrorist group may be studying such attacks “and may aspire to emulate them, but the level of training, discipline and command and control are not easily replicated,” he said.

Shah, the former tribal zone official, said the best protection from such attacks was to post sharpshooters and machine guns on the roof of high-target buildings, who could spot assailants as they launched their assault and open fire before they could get close to their target.

“If you have enough imagination you can repel such attacks,” he said. ap



So, gentlemen, if it is correct that the militants want to go head on, do you think thay have factored in that they do not need to win the engagement?? After all the insurgent does nto need to win, whereas the counter insurgent has to win or the psychological blow might lose him support of the populace --

I think you may see the number of diversionary attacks increase in other locations, as the militants try to reassign their cells and shift the phase of insurgency.

What are your thoughts? How will Pakistan react? Will it be able to disrupt the auxillary cells? Has it shown a willingness to not allow talib to gather or is it inclined to let them mass and take them on?

Militants may be betting on a rerun of the FC business but may not be counting on the fact that the Fauj may now be recieving assistance from corners of the world it had not counted on before - recall we had said that Pakistan may recieve signals from RUssia or Iran, if it decided to act against the Talib -- while I cannot point to any such signal, other than the Chinese signal, I am led to understand that the FAUJ may avail information from other quarters, perhaps the "trust" factors have shown an improvment.

 

[muse]

Speaking of diversionary attacks, what's this, then:





June 12, 2009

Some Pakistan Qaeda Fighters Now in Yemen and Somalia
By ERIC SCHMITT and DAVID E. SANGER

WASHINGTON — American officials say they are seeing the first evidence that dozens of fighters with Al Qaeda, and a small handful of the terrorist group’s leaders, are moving to Somalia and Yemen from their principal haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas. In communications that are being watched carefully at the Pentagon, the White House and the Central Intelligence Agency, the terrorist groups in all three locations are now communicating more frequently, and apparently trying to coordinate their actions, the officials said.

Some aides to President Obama attribute the moves to pressure from intensified drone attacks against Qaeda operatives in Pakistan, after years of unsuccessful American efforts to dislodge the terrorist group from their haven there.

But there are other possible explanations. Chief among them is the growth of the jihadist campaigns in both Somalia and Yemen, which may now have some of the same appeal for militants that Iraq did after the American military invasion there in 2003.

Somalia is now a failed state that bears some resemblance to Afghanistan before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, while Yemen’s weak government is ineffectually trying to combat the militants, American officials say.

The shift of fighters is still small, perhaps a few dozen, and there is no evidence that the top leaders — Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri — are considering a move from their refuge in the Pakistani tribal areas, according to more than half a dozen senior administration, military and counterterrorism officials interviewed in recent days.

Most officials would not comment on the record about the details of what they are seeing, because of the sensitivity of the intelligence information they are gathering.

Leon E. Panetta, the C.I.A. director, said in remarks here on Thursday that the United States must prevent Al Qaeda from creating a new sanctuary in Yemen or Somalia.

The steady trickle of fighters from Pakistan could worsen the chaos in Somalia, where an Islamic militant group, the Shabab, has attracted hundreds of foreign jihadists in its quest to topple the weak moderate Islamist government in Mogadishu. It could also swell the ranks of a growing menace in Yemen, where militants now control large areas of the country outside the capital.

“I am very worried about growing safe havens in both Somalia and Yemen, specifically because we have seen Al Qaeda leadership, some leaders, start to flow to Yemen,” Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in remarks at the Brookings Institution here on May 18.

For the United States, the movement creates opportunities as well as risks. With the Obama administration focusing its fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda on the havens in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a shift of fighters and some leaders to new locations could complicate American efforts to strike a lasting blow.

But in the tribal areas of Pakistan, Qaeda and Taliban forces have drawn for protection on Pashtun tribes with whom they have deep familial and tribal ties. A move away from those areas could expose Qaeda leaders to betrayal, while communications among militants in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen have created a new opportunity for American intelligence to zero in on insurgents who gave up many electronic communication devices shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks to avoid detection.

A senior Obama administration official attributed some of the movement to “the enormous heat we’ve been putting on the leadership and the mid-ranks” with Predator strikes, launched from both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Mr. Obama’s strategy so far has been to intensify many of the strikes begun under the Bush administration.

“There are indications that some Al Qaeda terrorists are starting to see the tribal areas of Pakistan as a tough place to be,” said an American counterterrorism official. “It is likely that a small number have left the region as a result. Among these individuals, some have probably ended up in Somalia and Yemen, among other places. The Al Qaeda terrorists who are leaving the tribal areas of Pakistan are predominantly foot soldiers.”

Measuring the numbers of these movements is almost as difficult as assessing the motivations of those who are on their way out of the tribal areas.

But American officials say there is evidence of a shift. One senior American military official who follows Africa closely said that more than 100 foreign fighters had trained in terrorism camps in Somalia alone in the past few years. Another senior military officer said that Qaeda operatives and confederates in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia had stepped up communications with one another.

“What really has us worried is that they’re communicating with each other much more — Al Qaeda in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen,” the senior military officer said. “They’re asking, ‘What do you need? Financing? Fighters?’ ”

Mr. Obama’s strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan placed the defeat of Al Qaeda as the No. 1 objective, largely to make sure that the group could not plot new attacks against the United States.

Thus, the movement of the fighters, and the disruption that causes, has been interpreted by some of the president’s top advisers as a sign of success.

But the emergence of new havens, from which Al Qaeda and its affiliates could plot new attacks, raises difficult questions for the United States on how to combat the growing threat, and creates the possibility that increased missile strikes are in the offing in Yemen and Somalia.

“Those are issues that I think the international community is going to have to address because Al Qaeda is not going away,” Admiral Mullen told a Senate committee on May 21.

The C.I.A. says its drone attacks in Pakistan have disrupted Al Qaeda’s operations and damaged the group’s senior ranks. American officials say that strikes have killed 11 of the top 20 Qaeda leaders in the past year.

“Al Qaeda has been hit by drones and it has generated a lot of insecurity among them,” said Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani general and military analyst in Islamabad.

“Many among them are uneasy and it is possible that they are leaving for Somalia and other jihadi battle fronts,” he said. “The hard core, however, will like to stay on.”

Without singling out any countries, Adm. Eric T. Olson, the head of the Special Operations Command, spoke in general terms last week about how the increased Pakistani military operations in the Swat Valley and early indications of a new Pakistani offensive in South Waziristan had put militants on the run.

“As the Pakistanis are applying pressure,” Admiral Olson told a House panel, “it will shift some of the sanctuaries to other places.”


Jack Styczynski contributed reporting from New Yo

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

^^^ Interesting twist of fate if the recent pressure applied in Pakistan on the militants is extended into the rest of FATA, especially Waziristan, in conjunction with the anticipated increase in pressure from the new US deployments and operations, acts as a catalyst for the AQ shift into Somalia and Yemen.

Greater instability in Yemen then potentially poses a threat to the surrounding affluent Gulf Monarchies, especially the House of Saud - and the Americans now believe it is money from the Gulf that is bankrolling these groups, along with the drug trade.

How ironic if the blood money from the Arab states makes a full circle back to them.



That is a huge border with Saudi Arabia and Oman, and notice also the proximity to Somalia and the Strait of Bab al Mandeb.

A new possible nexus and AQ center in the making, and one that would pose direct threats to the Gulf Oil production and economies?

 

[muse]

Poor Yemen, what did they do to deserve these savages, by the way recall that lune who attacked the grasnd mosque in Mecca also came from Yemen. Yes, but i would not count them out in Pakistan just yet, Something is cooking and AQ won't like it, neither will their Pakistani affiliates.

The thing most people miss the degree of training, organizing, recruiting, the logistics, the motivation of cells, imagine the time, effort and MONEY involved, people think that some islamists just got together and away we go, we got an insurgency - but it takes a great deal ofd expertise and it always, always, always needs an external actor -- no need to get into the external actor(s) thing just yet, not until there is an effective IO planned for execution and the evidence is unimpeachable.

 

[ajpirzada]

60 Taliban killed in Swat and Bannu operations

* 10 soldiers killed in clashes g Security forces secure remaining areas around Kabal
* Mass grave of deceased Taliban found in Peochar

Staff Report

ISLAMABAD: Security forces said on Friday they had killed 60 Taliban during the past 24 hours, adding 10 soldiers were martyred and 24 injured in clashes with the Taliban.

“Thirty-nine terrorists were killed in various areas of Malakand. At the same time, 10 soldiers embraced shahadat and 24 were injured,” the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in a statement. According to a private TV channel, 18 more Taliban were killed during shelling of Taliban hideouts in Sarabangal. Another three Taliban were killed when security forces targeted hideouts in the mountain regions of Charmang valley in Bajaur Agency.

Secure: The 39 Taliban were killed as security forces continued to secure and consolidate their positions at Chuprial. During the clashes that ensured, eight soldiers were martyred, while three were injured. “Their (Taliban) dead bodies are lying at the site,” the ISPR said. Security forces also secured the remaining areas around Kabal, where two soldiers were martyred and eight injured during exchange of fire with terrorists. However, casualties of terrorists could not be confirmed.

Mass burial: The ISPR said security forces had found a mass Taliban burial site in the Shalhosar area of Peochar. “Details could not be ascertained due to unhygienic condition and bed smell,” the statement added.

Also on Friday, two tribal jirgas comprising around 135 notables from Talkar, Shangla and nearby villages met the local commander, and appreciated the efforts of security forces to evict terrorists from the area.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

 

[fatman17]

^^^ Interesting twist of fate if the recent pressure applied in Pakistan on the militants is extended into the rest of FATA, especially Waziristan, in conjunction with the anticipated increase in pressure from the new US deployments and operations, acts as a catalyst for the AQ shift into Somalia and Yemen.

Greater instability in Yemen then potentially poses a threat to the surrounding affluent Gulf Monarchies, especially the House of Saud - and the Americans now believe it is money from the Gulf that is bankrolling these groups, along with the drug trade.

How ironic if the blood money from the Arab states makes a full circle back to them.



That is a huge border with Saudi Arabia and Oman, and notice also the proximity to Somalia and the Strait of Bab al Mandeb.

A new possible nexus and AQ center in the making, and one that would pose direct threats to the Gulf Oil production and economies?

i was wondering if anyone had noticed the "deafening silence" of the S/Arabians on the mil-ops. further the S/Arabians have not extended any help for the IDPs except for a token amount!!!

friend indeed!!!

 

[All-Green]

i was wondering if anyone had noticed the "deafening silence" of the S/Arabians on the mil-ops. further the S/Arabians have not extended any help for the IDPs except for a token amount!!!

friend indeed!!!

I am sure they would have liked a terror utopia in which all their bad boys and rebels would find interest in rather than fighting against their own state...
The piercing strikes against the terrorists will result in the return home of such elusive merchants of terror...also the conflict is fast fanning anti arab and anti wahabi sentiments which does not go well with Saudi Arabia.
Thirdly the Naraz Sharif factor who in my humble opinion is still waiting to be made prime minister and will only then use the S Arabia factor to bring in aid and oil subsidies etc...being so close to S Arabia and seeing the situation he should have appealed to them to do their part as well but i guess our politicians are the most petty minded and egotistical ones that this earth has seen.

 

[fatman17]

ANALYSIS
Date Posted: 12-Jun-2009

Jane's Defence Weekly

Islamabad shifts policy and confronts militants

The Pakistan Army's campaign in Swat has shown a genuine resolve to combat militancy but there is little focus on long-term solutions, writes Farhan Bokhari

The Pakistan Army's campaign against Taliban militants in Swat appears to be heading towards a successful conclusion, with General Ashafq Parvez Kiyani, the army's chief of staff, saying in early June that "the tide in Swat has decisively turned".

The army now appears to have scaled down the operation from its mid-May peak, when US-supplied AH-1 Cobra helicopter gunships supported by fighter aircraft from the Pakistan Air Force were used to pound Taliban positions. The operational focus has since shifted to targeting suspected militant hideouts.

Once the battle for Swat ends, Jane's understands that the army is likely to stay for at least a year to guard against any Taliban revival in the area.

Widening the operation

The Pakistan Army, acting on information gathered by Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and other agencies, has also begun expanding its operations into the lawless region along the Afghan border known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The biggest challenge in this region comes from Waziristan, where Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan leader Baitullah Mehsud bases his operations.

In the latest act of terrorism attributed to Mehsud's group, up to 500 kg of explosives were used to target the Pearl Continental Hotel in Peshawar, Pakistan's northern frontier city, on 9 June. The attack killed 16 people, including two UN officials, and suggested that Taliban militants were fighting back after suffering heavy losses in the month-long Swat campaign.

The attack in Peshawar has increased the pressure on the Pakistani government and the military to destroy Taliban sanctuaries in Waziristan and elsewhere. The military's own attitude towards the Taliban has certainly hardened. Video footage from the Taliban's propaganda outfit, which showed military officers and soldiers being beheaded by militants, has led the army to warn that those responsible cannot expect to retain their previous ties to the military.

Security experts believe Mehsud has systematically trained a cadre of fighters who are resisting the military effort, as well as a group of ideologically motivated suicide bombers. Taliban footage from Swat seen by Jane's shows three young men who embrace their co-fighters before driving their cars packed with explosives to blow up government offices.

A Western defence official in Islamabad who has also seen the footage said it was difficult to know how many of these well-trained suicide bombers were still waiting to attack. "I suspect they are in the tens: so a maximum of between 50 to 100," he said.

However, defence analysts said that the military's victory in Swat could be seen as a turning point for Pakistan's battle against the Taliban. "Once it has been proven that the Pakistan Army can fight a battle against these people and win that battle, then that makes a difference to the military's position," Lieutenant General (retired) Talat Masood told Jane's.

There are two areas where Pakistan's position remains vulnerable: the challenge of rehabilitating the two million people who fled the fighting in Swat; and retaining the public's support for the military campaign.

On the first issue, Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed, a widely respected Pakistan Army commander who led relief operations after the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, has been placed in charge of the relief and long-term rehabilitation of Swat's displaced. He told Jane's that the country faced "very big trouble" if it fails to address the issue of refugees. One Western official told Jane's: "There is a danger of riots in Pakistan's big cities if these people are unable to go to their homes and start to become restless".

On the issue of retaining public support, there has been criticism of the Pakistani military's media strategy. Since the operation in Swat began, the military's information wing, Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), has focused on facilitating access to teams from Pakistan's TV channels. In the short term, this policy has paid off by giving domestic viewers a favourable insight into the military effort.

However, the failure to allow similar access to international media has wasted a valuable opportunity to build a much higher profile for the campaign in key foreign destinations where Pakistan has routinely sought economic and military assistance, such as the United States and Europe.

Closing the Taliban chapter

While the Pakistani military has become engaged against domestic Taliban militants who challenge the authority of the state, it is unclear if it will join any campaign against the Afghan Taliban unless Pakistan's own security concerns are adequately addressed.

Chief among these is the issue of Kashmir: something that US President Barack Obama referred to in his election campaign as demanding the world's attention.

However, Obama's failure to bring up Kashmir during his speech in Cairo - which centred instead on Palestine - has clearly disappointed Pakistani officials.

"Unless the issue of Kashmir is not only recognised as a threat to world peace and steps are taken to address this, how can we come fully on board on any major security initiatives?" a senior Pakistani government official told Jane's. "The terrorism in this region ultimately relates to activists from Kashmir. How can militancy be addressed comprehensively without some movement on Kashmir?"

As a result of the recent spate of terrorist attacks that has recently rocked the country, with the attack in Peshawar being the latest, the military has now decided to confront home-grown extremists. This marks a major policy shift by the state of Pakistan.

And yet, without Pakistan's inclusion in a broader regional security arrangement that includes resolving the issue of Kashmir, Islamabad's willingness to tackle the Afghan Taliban who remain in its territory will remain in doubt - as will the region's long-term stability.

Farhan Bokhari is a JDW Correspondent based in Islamabad

 

[fatman17]

COMMENT: Living with terror —Shaukat Qadir

Military operations will have to recapture the Taliban dominated areas and maintain a presence there for the foreseeable future. But the political government will have to redress the people’s grievances and give them a reason to be peaceful citizens

On May 27, Lahore was again attacked by a suicide bomber. Apparently, the target was the ISI building, but the attack plan had a built-in alternative target: the Rescue15 building adjacent to the primary target. Denied access to the primary target, the suicide bomber successfully hit the secondary target, leaving twenty-six dead, including fifteen policemen and an ISI colonel, and many hundred injured.

The suicide bomber was supported by more than six other attackers who began by opening fire at the security personnel defending the buildings. Four of them accompanied the suicide bomber in his van but escaped before he blew himself up, and at least two others were firing from neighbouring rooftops.

Five suspects have been apprehended, and while one of them was captured live by some networks as he was being escorted by police personnel, it was interesting to see that he was dodging blows from the public and the police was also protecting him. But when he reached the safety of the police van, he had a triumphant smile on his face.

Twenty-four hours later, twin explosions, only minutes apart, in the famous Kissa Khwani Bazaar of Peshawar left eight dead and over sixty injured. Another explosion in the city of Dera Ismail Khan left three dead and a dozen injured. On June 1, an explosion in Kohat killed two and left seven injured.

Both Baitullah Mehsud, leader of the Mehsud Taliban, and Muslim Khan, spokesman for Fazlullah, leader of the Swat Taliban, have claimed credit for these attacks.

On Friday, June 5, they struck again at a mosque in Dir; killing forty and leaving dozens injured. Since then there have been other attacks elsewhere, with fewer casualties. An attack on the PC hotel in Peshawar on June 9 left eleven dead and over fifty injured.

There is little doubt that these are retaliatory attacks for the successful military operations in Swat. Terrorism is the recourse of the weak. Since they obviously cannot win against organised forces, terrorists seek to force a change in policy or to break the will of the people by these tactics. It is, however, more than likely that they will succeed in doing the exact opposite.

Whatever little sympathy there was for them is fast disappearing and it would not be surprising if, like the citizens of Karachi took the law in their own hands against dacoits a few months ago, people elsewhere also take the law in their own hands, or at the very least provide active assistance to security personnel.

In the attack on the police training school at Manawan earlier this year, also in Lahore, three suspects were apprehended with the assistance of the public. In Dir, local citizens have taken up arms and have the Taliban surrounded, refusing them the alternative of surrender.

Judging by previous standards, the response of our security personnel is steadily improving, although there is still tremendous scope for improvement. The very fact that security personnel succeeded in protecting the primary target could be considered an achievement of sorts. However, had they the understanding or presence of mind to target the driver and the tires of the van that the suicide bomber was in, they might have been more successful; but for that they would need training as sharpshooters, which they most certainly aren’t.

Let us be very clear about one thing. If successful military operations are going to continue in our tribal areas, which they must, the incidents of terrorist attacks will also increase incrementally. They are not going away. Incidents of this kind are something we are destined to live with for the foreseeable future.

I cannot help again quoting the example of the UK. In the 1980s, the IRA was bombing the streets of London. It was only when Sinn Fein and the IRA were successfully penetrated by the SAS and their leaders systematically killed, forcing the remaining leadership to go underground, that the British government initiated talks with them; some of those that the British government was talking to had a bounty on their head.

There is, however, one significant difference. Even though the IRA also used terror to enforce obedience in certain areas of Ireland, it enjoyed the support of the vast majority and was reflective of the people’s aspirations. The Taliban do not enjoy the support of the bulk of the tribes; they reign through force and terror. Therefore, there is no scope for negotiating a political role for them. They will never win a free and fair election, and they know it full well.

If we give in to them, the Taliban will slowly take over the whole country; just as they had begun to expand beyond Swat during the period of the ‘peace deal’. Whether we give in or not, they will continue to terrorise the rest of the country.

Consequently, military operations will have to recapture the Taliban dominated areas and maintain a presence there for the foreseeable future. But the political government will have to redress the people’s grievances and give them a reason to be peaceful citizens.

Nonetheless, even as the Taliban leaders are eliminated and the territories under their control recaptured, there are individuals that have already been programmed to kill — remember the suspect captured after the attack in Lahore on May 27, the one with a triumphant smile on his face, no remorse, no regrets, not even despondency on being captured. These are people programmed to kill and seek heaven and glory by dying in the process; they believe it to be their sacred duty.

There are still many of them left and, as long as they remain, we will continue to witness such attacks. I don’t see them ending in my lifetime. I only hope my children, and theirs will live to witness their end.

This article is a modified version of one originally written for the daily National. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)