Old geographies, new orders -- China, India and the future of Asia

[Echo_419]

Really amazing video... You know I knew that India and China dominated the world GDP and etc before the industrial revolution but i never could understand how as that possible , but after watching this I can just say that a significant part of that understanding ( or lack of thereof) has been subdued...
Thnxx to #Abingdonboy for posting this video

We the advent of nationalist in Power we will reclaim our rightful spot in the world order

 

[asquare]

@Developereo also said the same thing about China a while back. We've had arguments over it.

But he is 100% correct. People tend to overestimate developing countries, and underestimate the sole superpower America. Despite basic facts and logic.

In terms of hard power, America will continue to dominate, both economically (due to the dollar hegemony and the combined economic power of the West) and militarily (no need to explain this one).

In terms of soft power, it is even more hopeless. No one can challenge America in terms of media domination, and the closest challengers (Japan/UK) are fully in the American camp anyway.

Developing countries are just that... developing countries.

Fully agreed. There's this 'look we only need to grow at 9% for 30 years snd we're there' thought process that goes around. There's no recognition that there are sharply diminishing returns to policies that spur development. For China to get to the level of the US, and for India to get to the level of China is far more complex than reproducing good practices from a development handbook. Development is never guaranteed.

Having said that, I suppose optimism and exuberance counts for something, and shouldn't be dismissed entirely. We just need to make sure we remember that there's a very long road ahead.

 

[Echo_419]

Please don't bring religion based nationalism into this. I am all for nationalism being a motivator for the state but that nationalism should not be based upon religion but rather on the love for one's own country and the duty you owe to your country.
I for one believe in the separation of state and religion, that is to say that the religion should not influence the policies of the Govt. but rather the welfare of the citizens should be the main catalyst of the Govt.
Which I must say the previous Govt failed to inculcate in their policies...

Where did I bring religion,I didn't even used the word

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Fully agreed. There's this 'look we only need to grow at 9% for 30 years snd we're there' thought process that goes around. There's no recognition that there are sharply diminishing returns to policies that spur development. For China to get to the level of the US, and for India to get to the level of China is far more complex than reproducing good practices from a development handbook. Development is never guaranteed.

Having said that, I suppose optimism and exuberance counts for something, and shouldn't be dismissed entirely. We just need to make sure we remember that there's a very long road ahead.

Well said sir.

Optimism is a good thing, but I also feel that we have to be as realistic as possible at the same time.

 

[Echo_419]

I think this clearly signifies religion or { you that might not have been your intention and I inferred something else from it, so Sorry for ranting on you }
P.S: i think in need to stop reading TOI and Hindu, as these papers are seriously on a crusade against Hinduism which is impacting me I think.

Okay,enlighten me how saying 'Nationalist are back on power' do I involve religion & when I use the word nationalist I mean people who care about our nation & not the Blood suckers who were in power before

 

[Abingdonboy]

Lastly, you forget that the way US has its aces, so does India. You should be aware that now Indian expats in US and UK wield influence second only to the AIPAC. The Indian-American community is becoming politically active and strongly. We have started ensuring that US does not harm Indian interests using other means. Take a second to think why exactly does the Government of India cajole the Indian Americans, why they are treated as royalty by the Government, supported at all stages and their interests globally backed by GoI. And not just that we have co-opted the Israeli's to ensure that they too put pressure on US on issues that are of importance to India.

An interesting point about this Indian-American lobby growing in the US along with its ability to influence the USG. I think this is an incredibly valid but often overlooked point. The reason Israel is hailed as the US's closest ally? The very prosperous and active Jewish lobby in the US. In the US corruption is effectively legalised in the sense lobbying is legal as are campaign contributions for all politicians. Money in politics is a problem (IMHO) for the US but is good for others to be able to influence the USG policy and India should make use of this (and will IMHO).

I am talking about the size of economy and per-capita GDP.

As for Eurozone, the troubles are mostly concentrated in the problem economies. Germany would arguably be better off by itself, but it benefits from the EU because the DM would be higher than the Euro, hurting German exports.

Whether these economies will weather the storm and rise back to previous prominence remains to be seen but, given their past performance and national characteristics (hard work, focus, determination), I would not start betting against them just yet,

You're aware this European supremacy is only a modern concept, historically the powerhouses of the world have always been India and China. The period of European prosperity and dominance of the rest of the world is but an anomaly and short lived in nature (a few hundred years).

The Eurozone is hardly stable even today and still on the brink.

Please don't bring religion based nationalism into this. I am all for nationalism being a motivator for the state but that nationalism should not be based upon religion but rather on the love for one's own country and the duty you owe to your country.
I for one believe in the separation of state and religion, that is to say that the religion should not influence the policies of the Govt. but rather the welfare of the citizens should be the main catalyst of the Govt.
Which I must say the previous Govt failed to inculcate in their policies...

I think this clearly signifies religion or { you that might not have been your intention and I inferred something else from it, so Sorry for ranting on you }
P.S: i think in need to stop reading TOI and Hindu, as these papers are seriously on a crusade against Hinduism which is impacting me I think.

By nationalism @Echo_419 is in no way mentioning region bro. He is clearly talking about India first religion doesn't even come into it.

 

[Echo_419]

An interesting point about this Indian-American lobby growing in the US along with its ability to influence the USG. I think this is an incredibly valid but often overlooked point. The reason Israel is hailed as the US's closest ally? The very prosperous and active Jewish lobby in the US. In the US corruption is effectively legalised in the sense lobbying is legal as are campaign contributions for all politicians. Money in politics is a problem (IMHO) for the US but is good for others to be able to influence the USG policy and India should make use of this (and will IMHO).


You're aware this European supremacy is only a modern concept, historically the powerhouses of the world have always been India and China. The period of European prosperity and dominance of the rest of the world is but an anomaly and short lived in nature (a few hundred years).

The Eurozone is hardly stable even today and still on the brink.




By nationalism @Echo_419 is in no way mentioning region bro. He is clearly talking about India first religion doesn't even come into it.

I think he is reading to much of Commie Propganda

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Fauj, this is not about cheap shots. This guy is the kind of Pakistani that is holding you back. He is focused on things like zionism and world domination and not what helps Pakistan's kitchen table issues.

I was having a conversation with @Horus a few days back, reminiscing about when I first visited Pakistan as a young man in the very early 80's. Like I asked Horus, I'm not sure how old you were back then. But Pakistan was the hub of progressiveness back then. Oh how I remember my first visit to the polo fields, the women and men were all wearing their Sunday best. It was like I was among a western society outing. The Indians will not like this, but Pakistanis back then were the ' Class' of Asia. I wish I could show you guys some of the old black/ whites I had back then.

This was before Zia managed to turn the country hard right and Developereo is the result of the hard right that is still plaguing you. He much too consumed about religious bigotry and not what will bring Pakistan back into those glory days.

We are aware prior to Soviet-Afghan war Pakistan was more progressive than India, due to early choice of capitalism and lack of extremism.

 

[Developereo]

You're aware this European supremacy is only a modern concept, historically the powerhouses of the world have always been India and China. The period of European prosperity and dominance of the rest of the world is but an anomaly and short lived in nature (a few hundred years).

The Eurozone is hardly stable even today and still on the brink.

No one is saying that Europeans are inherently superior.

We, including the presenter, all agree that Europeans dominate today because they leveraged the knowledge economy, which invalidated the old (agricultural) equation of more people = more GDP.

The point of contention here is whether the knowledge economy will scale perfectly again to reestablish the old equation.

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But it is not a certainty by any means.

 

[MilSpec]

This is his talk summarized:

A- Historically, India and China had the largest populations.
B- Historically, India and China dominated the global GDP.
C- B happened because of A, since (agricultural) productivity was mostly equal across the board.
D- (European) technology upset the boat.
E- Technology is now permeating all over the world.
F- If (technological) productivity is equalized across the board, then A will again imply B

The flaw in the argument is the first part of F.
Can it ever be truly realized?
Are there other factors at play?

Productivity/ Technological/Infrastructural/Educational will be the challenge for India/China, which is very well being taken care of. The two countries are producing more STEM professional than the rest of the world put together. No one said that the rise of India/China will happen in next five years, It will house half of the world population with educational facilities rapidly improving, these two countries will also house the half the engineers/doctors/entrepreneurs in the world too. Guess what that would cause?

No one is saying that Europeans are inherently superior.

We, including the presenter, all agree that Europeans dominate today because they leveraged the knowledge economy, which invalidated the old (agricultural) equation of more people = more GDP.

The point of contention here is whether the knowledge economy will scale perfectly again to reestablish the old equation.

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But it is not a certainty by any means.

Obfuscating Macroeconomics with buzz words like knowledge economy/tech economy might work to raise doubts in the projections, the bottom line remains that India/China by statistical trends are progressing in all economic indicators.... Your response would definately would be opposite if the video talked only about China, but th object of ire here is India... I would like to ask you what is your contention, India and China will never ever come up to become economically prosperous states? If yes why? please specify the specific indicators that suggest so.Please avoid Riazhaq's garbage

 

[Developereo]

Productivity/ Technological/Infrastructural/Educational will be the challenge for India/China, which is very well being taken care of. The two countries are producing more STEM professional than the rest of the world put together. No one said that the rise of India/China will happen in next five years, It will house half of the world population with educational facilities rapidly improving, these two countries will also house the half the engineers/doctors/entrepreneurs in the world too. Guess what that would cause?




Obfuscating Macroeconomics with buzz words like knowledge economy/tech economy might work to raise doubts in the projections, the bottom line remains that India/China by statistical trends are progressing in all economic indicators.... Your response would definately would be opposite if the video talked only about China, but th object of ire here is India... I would like to ask you what is your contention, India and China will never ever come up to become economically prosperous states? If yes why? please specify the specific indicators that suggest so.Please avoid Riazhaq's garbage

Your post is just a wordy rephrasing of the OP's claim that population implies domination.

That is simply not true and hasn't been true for many, many centuries.

I am not here to pamper to your fantasies or to soften the reality by agreeing to meaningless 'projections'. I offer my opinions, with which others may or may not agree.

I already explained in this post Old geographies, new orders -- China, India and the future of Asia | Page 4 why the future belongs to those countries which have a demonstrated track record of productizing technical innovations.

Now you can claim that I am being anti-India, or pro-China, or being Pakistani. All of that won't change the objective reality that, so far, the demonstrated track record belongs to the West and some East Asian countries. India is not on that list. China is starting out on that list. It doesn't mean India (or anyone else) can't get on that list, but accession to that list is not automatic. It is earned after decades of hard work and consistent performance.

 

[MilSpec]

Now you can claim that I am being anti-India, or pro-China, or being Pakistani. All of that won't change the objective reality that, so far, the demonstrated track record belongs to the West and some East Asian countries. India is not on that list. China is starting out on that list. It doesn't mean India (or anyone else) can't get on that list, but accession to that list is not automatic. It is earned after decades of hard work and consistent performance.

Demonstrated track record? like? what are the things that put them on this list? which list btw? lets see which are the key indicators which will be key to macroeconomics which India lack.... your entire rhetoric stinks of anti-India sentiment, which is quite evident from your first post on the topic...

 

[Developereo]

Demonstrated track record? like? what are the things that put them on this list? which list btw? lets see which are the key indicators which will be key to macroeconomics which India lack.... your entire rhetoric stinks of anti-India sentiment, which is quite evident from your first post on the topic...

Like I wrote, I am not here to pamper your sensibilities: you can dismiss reality check as an anti-India conspiracy. It bothers me not in the least.

Track record is evident to anyone who looks around them with an unbiased eye:

which countries have a high per-capita GDP based on value added services, not just raw materials?
which countries have a reputation for consistently producing innovations?
which countries have a reputation for producing quality products for which people will pay a premium?

We are talking about the modern era, not what happened thousands of years ago.

 

[MilSpec]

Like I wrote, I am not here to pamper your sensibilities: you can dismiss reality check as an anti-India conspiracy. It bothers me not in the least.

Track record is evident to anyone who looks around them with an unbiased eye:

which countries have a high per-capita GDP based on value added services, not just raw materials?
which countries have a reputation for consistently producing innovations?
which countries have a reputation for producing quality products for which people will pay a premium?

We are talking about the modern era, not what happened thousands of years ago.

I give up, there is no point in a debate , you have no clue of what you are talking about...