Old geographies, new orders -- China, India and the future of Asia

[dray]

Buddy, the US hasn't even lifted its finger against India.

I don't mean disrespect, and I know Indians will get angry, but the US could break India into twenty pieces if it set its mind to it. Don't ever underestimate the power of the American media and economy.

There's more than one way to skin the cat.

We are hearing this since 1947, btw, the original estimate was thirty pieces. Let's not overestimate or underestimate anything here.

 

[Developereo]

The guy who made the presentation is no nefelibata, I'm sure he did research well before presenting it in front of an audience (you cant randomly make up those graphs, somebody would object).

The graphs he presented are historical data which no one is denying. At issue is his unsubstantiated claim that mere numbers will translate into GDP. Maybe they will, maybe not?

Japan, Germany, France, and many other countries seem to be doing just fine, despite low numbers...

Btw what exactly is that you object China and India as the top 2 economies or India as the supa powa??

I am merely pointing out that he is making unwarranted assumptions to underpin his claims.

This is the age of knowledge and technology, not mere numbers. Analyses based purely on numbers are suspect in this age.

We are hearing this since 1947, btw, the original estimate was thirty pieces. Let's not overestimate or underestimate anything here.

No one has had the need or capacity to implement the plan.
But, if the need arises, there exists at least one entity which has the means...

 

[FaujHistorian]

Since I'm reminiscing - I will tell you that I was interested in a Pakistani girl back then. I can still see her face, gorgeous girl who in front of her parents I used awkwardly refer to her to as Begum Maria.

We used to meet at the polo fields, walk and have long conversations. She had these thick eyebrows, you know thicker than american women where it is pencil thin and these hazel brown eyes. She used to teach me words in Urdu. Kaye din teh hazoor mashaallah

Oh man

now I understand.

you are a "nakam Aashiq" like so many of us on PDF. hahaha

you know what we the nakam aashiqs do mostly?

Write love poetry.

I know Americans are more practical people, so they move on.

 

[Providence]

I was just skimming through the Central bank reports of India and Vietnam and Brazil etc. The singular focus on inflation i would say has hurt the economy more badly and ways you guys don't even think and don't even discuss.

Lets consider the policy of using high interest rates as one stop shop for tackling economy woes.

Effect 1 : High interest rates will/are affecting negatively the cash flows of the huge infrastructure projects taken up during the global boom era of pre 2009.

Effect 2 : It has also been detrimental to present investment in economy which could have led to increased outputs in future.

Fact1 : Not only has the production capacity utilisation fallen from ~85% to around 75% in India but industrial investment has literally nosedived in both Brazil and India.

Fact2 : The NPA assets have also risen mostly in steel & infra sector more than agriculture.

We had a similar debate going on during the Reagan era as well in 80s. Although our economies are different but you guys should think out of the box for a start.

(This is most important and surprisingly been missing in the discourse)

Effect 3 :
Because of high cost of borrowing, the firms are tightening their working capitals in a big way. Like reducing inventory levels and reducing the no of shifts in factories etc thereby reducing the factory outputs.

Now, everyone will also agree that in most emerging countries, a significant portion of durable expense is debt funded. Eg Almost 100% of your car is on loan(credit), or say 70% of bikes are on loan, even AC/washing machines etc are on loan say 50% . The high rates therefore killing the consumption levels and people are now delaying their plans to purchase them more and more into future.

How most economists interpret the situation ? This is a momentary pause and everything will again function like a well oiled machine when interest rate drops ? -

This can't be any further from truth. What I will say is the economy in a manner of speaking would have effectively regressed or contracted. And reason is, the economy not only has to prop up the investment levels but demand which had vanished, also has to prop up. Basically your starting point after "the pause" is not where you had stopped before the turmoil but couple of steps behind where you were.

Hope I made the third effect sufficiently lucid.



ps. I am not sure how on topic the post was !

 

[dray]

The only thing thats constant in life is change... no ruler and no country so far has remained at the top forever.
The guy who made the presentation is no nefelibata, I'm sure he did research well before presenting it in front of an audience (you cant randomly make up those graphs, somebody would object).
Btw what exactly is that you object to?China and India as the top 2 economies or India as the supa powa??

His problem is with India only, not China. You should know that already.

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

Oh man

now I understand.

you are a "nakam Aashiq" like so many of us on PDF. hahaha

Oh I so hope I did not get weird on you Btw I understand the word ashiq which is lover yeah? what does nakam mean? is it "not possible"

Yeah, It was a different period when I came into Pakistan first in 79-83

 

[Levina]

His problem is with India only, not China. You should know that already.

I should??
But I didnt.

 

[Developereo]

His problem is with India only, not China. You should know that already.

I also doubt that China will equal US per-capita GDP any time soon,

But the claims are far more of a stretch for India.

 

[FaujHistorian]

Oh I so hope I did not get weird on you

It was a different period when I came into Pakistan in 79-83

nah

you know what "nakam Aashiq".

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

nah

you know what "nakam Aashiq".

the word ashiq which is lover, I think ?

Does nakam mean? "not possible", or as I phonetically read is as being close to word Nahi= no

 

[FaujHistorian]

Oh I so hope I did not get weird on you Btw I understand the word ashiq which is lover yeah? what does nakam mean? is it "not possible"

Yeah, It was a different period when I came into Pakistan first in 79-83

nakam

is hopeless, failed, unfullfilled

this is eastern way of looking at love

hope you don't mind me saying it.


BTW, I remember we had a good ambassador from US back in the 60s or may be 70s.

He once gave interview that he and his wife wanted to retire in Pakistan after their tour of duty was over.

So I agree Pakistan was not a bad place back then.

not at all,.

 

[Providence]

Japan, Germany, France, and many other countries seem to be doing just fine, despite low numbers...



I am merely pointing out that he is making unwarranted assumptions to underpin his claims.

Don't agree with your claim ( in bold ) at all.

While the eurozone central banks have shown more flexibility in its budgetary policies of late but as the world meanders through the cyclical short growth phases and shock phases, the eurozone economies have been more hesitant and uneven when it came to the recovery part and this hardening effect is actually ramping up with each cycle.

As far as the rest of the world economy is concerned, US, BRIC, South-East asian countries have shown remarkable consistency in bouncing back to their original levels when things looked well in the horizon.

I would say (with no offence) it's eurozone which is the problem child more than anyone else.

 

[FaujHistorian]

I should??
But I didnt.

Because you are too nice of a poster.

obviously

I also doubt that China will equal US per-capita GDP any time soon,

But the claims are far more of a stretch for India.

you can make your life much easier by shouting "India shining".

 

[Developereo]

Don't agree with your claim ( in bold ) at all.

While the eurozone central banks have shown more flexibility in its budgetary policies of late but as the world meanders through the cyclical short growth phases and shock phases, the eurozone economies have been more hesitant and uneven when it came to the recovery part and this hardening effect is actually ramping up with each cycle.

As far as the rest of the world economy is concerned, US, BRIC, South-East asian countries have shown remarkable consistency in bouncing back to their original levels when things looked well in the horizon.

I would say (with no offence) it's eurozone which is the problem child more than anyone else.

I am talking about the size of economy and per-capita GDP.

As for Eurozone, the troubles are mostly concentrated in the problem economies. Germany would arguably be better off by itself, but it benefits from the EU because the DM would be higher than the Euro, hurting German exports.

Whether these economies will weather the storm and rise back to previous prominence remains to be seen but, given their past performance and national characteristics (hard work, focus, determination), I would not start betting against them just yet,

 

[dray]

I also doubt that China will equal US per-capita GDP any time soon,

But the claims are far more of a stretch for India.

Similar per capita is not required, even 1/3rd of it will give both the countries an economy equal in size of the US. And we are talking about only the size of economies, not about global military or political influence.