Old geographies, new orders -- China, India and the future of Asia

[Judge]

Even if we accept the projections, that's a far cry from regaining historical share of global GDP.

And that's before we even contemplate other plays (legitimate and illegitimate) that the leaders have at their disposal to sabotage the up and comers and/or to maintain their lead. .

They can sabotage whether or not say India and China achieve technological parity or prevent them from achieving technological lead in some areas.

What they cannot sabotage is India and China becoming two of the three biggest economies of the globe. There is no way around the fact that the Euro world is slowing down in its average growth and US cannot prevent China and India from speeding up till a certain extent. Beyond that they have no control. For example, US would have loved to stop China's growth at $5000 per capita so that while China became an important economy, it does not become an economic challenger to US. They failed, China pushed through the barriers US tried to impose.

Similarly, while we are languishing at $1500 per capita, our growth is all set to revive back to 6 percent this coming year and 7% after that. Free trade and market mean that while the leaders may try to shackle us, we too have influence to force them to come to our terms.

And I can give examples to substantiate - look at how India blocked the world trade conference because we were not getting what we wanted or how India and China shackled the climate change conferences because the developed world was trying to put limits on our growth.

 

[Levina]

This is his talk summarized:

A- Historically, India and China had the largest populations.
B- Historically, India and China dominated the global GDP.
C- B happened because of A, since (agricultural) productivity was mostly equal across the board.
D- (European) technology upset the boat.
E- Technology is now permeating all over the world.
F- If (technological) productivity is equalized across the board, then A will again imply B

The flaw in the argument is the first part of F.
Can it ever be truly realized?
Are there other factors at play?

Almost there!!!

His hypothesis might 've issues but the present trend proves him right.
China is already there but I know it would take India some more time to be back to its glory because the democratic country we 're, we prefer moving at a tortoise's pace. But hey somebody told me "slow and steady wins the race"
And unlike China we 're not a potemkin village.

 

[Developereo]

They can sabotage whether or not say India and China achieve technological parity or prevent them from achieving technological lead in some areas.

What they cannot sabotage is India and China becoming two of the three biggest economies of the globe. There is no way around the fact that the Euro world is slowing down in its average growth and US cannot prevent China and India from speeding up till a certain extent. Beyond that they have no control. For example, US would have loved to stop China's growth at $5000 per capita so that while China became an important economy, it does not become an economic challenger to US. They failed, China pushed through the barriers US tried to impose.

Similarly, while we are languishing at $1500 per capita, our growth is all set to revive back to 6 percent this coming year and 7% after that. Free trade and market mean that while the leaders may try to shackle us, we too have influence to force them to come to our terms.

And I can give examples to substantiate - look at how India blocked the world trade conference because we were not getting what we wanted or how India and China shackled the climate change conferences because the developed world was trying to put limits on our growth.

Buddy, the US hasn't even lifted its finger against India.

I don't mean disrespect, and I know Indians will get angry, but the US could break India into twenty pieces if it set its mind to it. Don't ever underestimate the power of the American media and economy.

There's more than one way to skin the cat.

Almost there!!!

His hypothesis might 've issues but the present trend proves him right.
China is already there but I know it would take India some more time to be back to its glory because the democratic country we 're, we prefer moving at a tortoise's pace. But hey somebody told me "slow and steady wins the race"
And unlike China we 're not a potemkin village.

Call me skeptical.

Like I wrote, the leaders won't go down quietly and America hasn't even begun to fight back. The Empire is plenty strong and has a lot of fight left in it...

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

I wasn't talking about Pakistan (which is sorely lacking in common sense) but myself only.
Projections are all well and good but, by definition, they don't take into account unforeseen events.

This is not about playing cards around a campfire. Global dominance is a dog eat dog affair, and the current leaders didn't get there by playing nice or being complacent.

I was talking about you - focused on a cause that has been a bane to your people moving forward.

 

[FaujHistorian]

Look what your common sense got you- while the two countries moved on to higher achievements

Come on bro

that's a cheap shot at best.

long time friends shouldn't take such cheap shots

 

[Developereo]

I was talking about you - focused on a cause that has been a bane to your people moving forward.

It's a personal comment about me?
I have no idea what you are talking about. You will have to be more explicit.

 

[Levina]

Call me skeptical.

Right!
you're overly skeptical while I'm very sanguine about India's progress.
Our(Indian) laws, corruption and democracy is what slows us down, trust me.
I'm sanguine because slowly we've learnt to vitiate the effect of these factors.

Like I wrote, the leaders won't go down quietly and America hasn't even begun to fight back. The Empire is plenty strong and has a lot of fight left in it...

I wont disagree. I dont underestimate 'em. But the universal law says "nothing is permanent". And so if Europe ruled the world in early 17th and 18th century then last century belonged to America and may be the next would belong to China.
I dont see India as a world leader but nonetheless India would be in the top 3, thats my bet.

 

[Judge]

Buddy, the US hasn't even lifted its finger against India.

I don't mean disrespect, and I know Indians will get angry, but the US could break India into twenty pieces if it set its mind to it. Don't ever underestimate the power of the American media and economy.

There's more than one way to skin the cat.

US has prevented India from doing dozens of things. In your view - essentially coloured as a Pakistani - you have failed to see where US has hurt Indian interests.

An example - They range from setting back Indian space operations by a decade by their direct actions. Preventing India from achieving access to critical technologies that would enable India to leap frog others. They have prevented Indian companies from getting a foothold in the US economy among dozens of such cases.

As a Pakistani, you are limited in your view to military or diplomatic show upmanship instead of looking where the real meat is - economy and technology. And that is where they have hurt Indian interests.

Lastly, you forget that the way US has its aces, so does India. You should be aware that now Indian expats in US and UK wield influence second only to the AIPAC. The Indian-American community is becoming politically active and strongly. We have started ensuring that US does not harm Indian interests using other means. Take a second to think why exactly does the Government of India cajole the Indian Americans, why they are treated as royalty by the Government, supported at all stages and their interests globally backed by GoI. And not just that we have co-opted the Israeli's to ensure that they too put pressure on US on issues that are of importance to India.

You presume much for the US. It is not so.

 

[Levina]

It's a personal comment about me?
I have no idea what you are talking about. You will have to be more explicit.

I was talking about you - focused on a cause that has been a bane to your people moving forward.

ohhhhhh!!
You men!!!

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

Come on bro

that's a cheap shot at best.

long time friends shouldn't take such cheap shots

Fauj, this is not about cheap shots. This guy is the kind of Pakistani that is holding you back. He is focused on things like zionism and world domination and not what helps Pakistan's kitchen table issues.

I was having a conversation with @Horus a few days back, reminiscing about when I first visited Pakistan as a young man in the very early 80's. Like I asked Horus, I'm not sure how old you were back then. But Pakistan was the hub of progressiveness back then. Oh how I remember my first visit to the polo fields, the women and men were all wearing their Sunday best. It was like I was among a western society outing. The Indians will not like this, but Pakistanis back then were the ' Class' of Asia. I wish I could show you guys some of the old black/ whites I had back then.

This was before Zia managed to turn the country hard right and Developereo is the result of the hard right that is still plaguing you. He much too consumed about religious bigotry and not what will bring Pakistan back into those glory days.

 

[Developereo]

He is focused on things like zionism
.

So you are still throwing a tantrum that I oppose Israel and Zionism?
(It's only a matter of time before you try the ol' switcheroo and conflate Zionism with Judaism)

PS. I notice it didn't take you long to jump into desperation mode and portray opposition to Israel as a "religious" issue. Also thanks for derailing the thread just for your petty personal tantrum.

and world domination.

In case you hadn't gotten up to speed, the subject of this thread _is_ global domination.

But the universal law says "nothing is permanent". And so if Europe ruled the world in early 17th and 18th century then last century belonged to America and may be the next would belong to China.
I dont see India as a world leader but nonetheless India would be in the top 3, thats my bet.

As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future behavior.

The Americans are not stupid, neither are they complacent. They have studied history just as well as anyone else.
Of course the challengers will try their best and the leaders will do their bit.

We'll see...

 

[FaujHistorian]

Fauj, this is not about cheap shots. This guy is the kind of Pakistani that is holding you back. He is focused on things like zionism and world domination and not what helps Pakistan's kitchen table issues.

I was having a conversation with @Horus a few days back, reminiscing about when I first visited Pakistan as a young man in the very early 80's. Like I asked Horus, I'm not sure how old you were back then. But Pakistan was the hub of progressiveness back then. Oh how I remember my first visit to the polo fields, the women and men were all wearing their Sunday best. It was like I was among a western society outing. The Indians will not like this, but Pakistanis back then were the ' Class' of Asia. I wish I could show you guys some of the old black/ whites I had back then.

This was before Zia managed to turn the country hard right and Developereo is the result of the hard right that is still plaguing you. He much too consumed about religious bigotry and not what will bring Pakistan back into those glory days.

Yes bro

I am aware of it and have family pictures from the polo ground, the Sindh Club, and Lahore Gymkhana on the mantle to prove it.

Mullahs leftists and revolutionaries were present just outside the "polo ground", you just didn't see them.

I am with you when it comes to longing for the good times,

However pointing to Zia for all this is kind of shallow analysis. We the mere mortals are allowed to do shallow analysis but not a person like you who had access to lot more info

 

[Developereo]

US has prevented India from doing dozens of things.

The American response to any threat will be commensurate. So far, India has not presented a significant threat to American dominance, so it hasn't triggered an appropriate response. America is focused on China as the most credible threat.

Rest assured that, if American threat analysis changes and India is perceived as a major threat to American dominance, you will know.

And this has nothing to do with being Pakistani. America could break apart Pakistan also -- much easier than India, in fact -- but it hasn't done so because, again, Pakistan is merely an annoyance, not a serious threat to America,

Indian-American community

Powerful as they are, they will be powerless if the American policymakers are convinced of India's threat to American dominance.

 

[Levina]

As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future behavior.

The Americans are not stupid, neither are they complacent. They have studied history just as well as anyone else.
Of course the challengers will try their best and the leaders will do their bit.

We'll see...

The only thing thats constant in life is change... no ruler and no country so far has remained at the top forever.
The guy who made the presentation is no nefelibata, I'm sure he did research well before presenting it in front of an audience (you cant randomly make up those graphs, somebody would object).
Btw what exactly is that you object to?China and India as the top 2 economies or India as the supa powa??

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

Yes bro

I am aware of it and have family pictures from the polo ground, the Sindh Club, and Lahore Gymkhana on the mantle to prove it.

Mullahs leftists and revolutionaries were present just outside the "polo ground", you just didn't see them.

I am with you when it comes to longing for the good times,

I am with you bro

Since I'm reminiscing - I will tell you that I was interested in a Pakistani girl back then. I can still see her face, gorgeous girl who in front of her parents I used awkwardly refer to her to as Begum Maria.

We used to meet at the polo fields, walk and have long conversations. She had these thick eyebrows, you know thicker than american women where it is pencil thin and these hazel brown eyes. She used to teach me words in Urdu. Kaye din teh hazoor mashaallah