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Obama needs India onside, politically and economically

CONNAN

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Obama To Make Four-Day Visit To India


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US President Barack Obama will lead the "largest business delegation to leave US shores in history", when he arrives in India tomorrow as he tries to renew a relationship that was energised under his predecessor, George W. Bush.

Obama's visit, which comes soon after British Prime Minister David Cameron's, is a sign of India's growing importance, both politically and economically. This is also borne out in upcoming visits this year by the French and Russian Presidents and most likely, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.

Under Obama, Indo-US relations have lost the impetus generated through his predecessor. George W. Bush recognised that India was a responsible, non-proliferating nuclear power (unlike China, Pakistan, etc.) and took the relations to a higher plateau by negotiating the Indo-US civil nuclear co-operation agreement.
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Bush was also keen to energise Indo-US ties because he saw India as a natural counterweight to China, a country with a worldview in conflict with the values of democratic countries such as the US and India.

Relations with India have drifted during Obama's presidency because of a preoccupation with his domestic agenda such as the health care bill, the global financial crisis and consequential unemployment and the Afghanistan war.

What has frustrated India most is his administration's inclination of putting India at par with Pakistan and seeing India through the prism of Obama's Afghanistan-Pakistan policy. Fortunately, there is some evidence, as various recently leaked reports indicate, that his administration is beginning to realise (as Bush did towards the end of his presidency) there is no Afghanistan-Pakistan problem but only a Pakistani military-sponsored Islamist militants problem.

Tensions have also risen because the two economies are not in unison: the US economy is in doldrums with its consequent lurch towards encouraging protectionism, for example visa fee hikes for Indian IT personnel and rhetoric against outsourcing, while India's economy is booming.

India, while keen to foster strategic ties with the US, would never be a US-camp follower. This was amply demonstrated during the Cold War when India crafted a policy of non-alignment (though India voted more often with the US in the UN than with the USSR). This means that the present bilateral strategic ties are not self-sustaining.

For the UN to be credible in an emerging new world order, India (soon to become the second to third largest economy in the world), will have to be offered a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. One way Obama can re-energise US relations with India is to follow France, Russia and Britain and support a council seat for India.

Although Obama and Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh have different expectations from this summit (Obama's emphasis is on economic and domestic job creation while India's on deepening strategic co-operation) they are not mutually exclusive.

Indo-US trade has followed a pattern of strict reciprocity in order to have a balanced trade profile. India, recognising that the US economy is weak, could unilaterally be more generous in this regard. For example, India could further open up its insurance sector. This would generate employment in the US but also enlarge the Indian market and make it more competitive.

In addition to widely expected finalisation of the purchase of 10 Boeing C-17s (worth $US4.5 billion), India could also expedite the purchase of Boeing aircraft by private Indian airlines ($US2.7 billion) and GE fighter jet engines ($US800 million) to the Indian Air Force. Many Indian private companies are also expected to sign big purchase contracts.

Bilateral co-operation in the agricultural sector especially in logistics, warehousing, and post-harvest technologies would create jobs in the US and also help India minimise waste and enhance its food security. Currently, 20 per cent of annual cereal/grain produced in India is either eaten by rats or rots in rain due to warehousing shortage. They would also benefit by focusing on long-term crop weather forecasting and agricultural marketing.

Though 50 per cent of its population remains uninsured/under-insured, the US spends more per person on health care (about 16 per cent of its GDP) than in any other developed country. Indian health care companies can help the US reduce its health costs and also bring more Americans under health cover, mirroring the creation of thousands of jobs and enhanced productivity in both countries by Indian information and communications technology and automotive firms. This will also help the US to retire its crippling debt faster.

The US defence budget is increasingly becoming unsustainable yet the defence manufacturing remains a key national security priority in both countries. Unlike India, the US exploits the capability of its small to medium-size enterprises (SMEs) for doing targeted research much better than India. If the US encouraged India to pursue a similar model, the Indian SMEs will ensure that both countries get more value for each defence dollar spent (just like the Indian ICT and automotive SMEs did). It would transform the relationship into intrinsically self-sustaining organism by creating a supra-national entrepreneurial network that China will find very difficult to emulate. It would thus prolong the dominance of the US in the world affairs.
 
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