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FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– Despite rampant online speculation that there are up to two large cracks on the deck of China’s third aircraft carrier, a new analysis of satellite imagery insists the ship is intact.
Tweets with images of the Fujian purportedly showed one or two dark splits that made takeoff and landings impossible until it was repaired. Some of those posts included gibes at China’s shipbuilding such as “Made in China.” There are even articles now citing the tweeted rumors, growing the audience that believes there are fissures rendering the vessel unable to perform its mission.
But a review to be posted this afternoon by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ ChinaPower Project debunks the cracks claims, straight up calling them “rampant misinformation.”
A review of commercially available satellite images from May 15 shows that the Fujian has no visible cracks or any other markings that would present a problem for the Chinese military. There’s also no evidence that sailors are involved in any repair work to fix the opening.
But the images circulating online do show long, dark streaks that certainly look like cracks from high above. So what are they? According to CSIS experts, it’s all just liquid.
“The streaks that overeager analysts mistook for cracks are, instead, liquid pooling and running in rivulets across the deck. Older imagery from September 8, 2022, and April 23, 2023, analyzed by ChinaPower shows that the liquid appears to originate on the port side of the vessel and run toward the starboard side,” write BRIAN HART, MATTHEW FUNAIOLE, and JOSEPH BERMUDEZ, JR. “This makes sense given that the vessel is tied up to the pier on the starboard side, which will sometimes cause a slight tilt with tidal swings. The fact that, in past imagery, the streaks appear in different places at different times adds further evidence that these are not cracks.”
The think tank, which like others receives donations from defense contractors, asserts that ridiculing China’s shipbuilding and maintenance capabilities because of misinformation is unwise: “Buying into these claims risks seriously underestimating China’s growing military power.”
Other reports suggest China could have five aircraft carriers by 2030. However, some experts are skeptical that Beijing will use its aircraft carriers as intended for at least a decade. Instead, they think the vessels are more for propaganda purposes at this point.
“Carrier operations are a very complicated game, and China’s got to figure this out all by itself. It still has a long, long way to go,” TREVOR HOLLINGSBEE, a former British naval intelligence analyst, told Reuters in May.
www.politico.com
Tweets with images of the Fujian purportedly showed one or two dark splits that made takeoff and landings impossible until it was repaired. Some of those posts included gibes at China’s shipbuilding such as “Made in China.” There are even articles now citing the tweeted rumors, growing the audience that believes there are fissures rendering the vessel unable to perform its mission.
But a review to be posted this afternoon by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ ChinaPower Project debunks the cracks claims, straight up calling them “rampant misinformation.”
A review of commercially available satellite images from May 15 shows that the Fujian has no visible cracks or any other markings that would present a problem for the Chinese military. There’s also no evidence that sailors are involved in any repair work to fix the opening.
But the images circulating online do show long, dark streaks that certainly look like cracks from high above. So what are they? According to CSIS experts, it’s all just liquid.
“The streaks that overeager analysts mistook for cracks are, instead, liquid pooling and running in rivulets across the deck. Older imagery from September 8, 2022, and April 23, 2023, analyzed by ChinaPower shows that the liquid appears to originate on the port side of the vessel and run toward the starboard side,” write BRIAN HART, MATTHEW FUNAIOLE, and JOSEPH BERMUDEZ, JR. “This makes sense given that the vessel is tied up to the pier on the starboard side, which will sometimes cause a slight tilt with tidal swings. The fact that, in past imagery, the streaks appear in different places at different times adds further evidence that these are not cracks.”
The think tank, which like others receives donations from defense contractors, asserts that ridiculing China’s shipbuilding and maintenance capabilities because of misinformation is unwise: “Buying into these claims risks seriously underestimating China’s growing military power.”
Other reports suggest China could have five aircraft carriers by 2030. However, some experts are skeptical that Beijing will use its aircraft carriers as intended for at least a decade. Instead, they think the vessels are more for propaganda purposes at this point.
“Carrier operations are a very complicated game, and China’s got to figure this out all by itself. It still has a long, long way to go,” TREVOR HOLLINGSBEE, a former British naval intelligence analyst, told Reuters in May.
No, that’s not a crack in a Chinese aircraft carrier
www.politico.com
