New emerging axis of Russia, China and Pakistan: regional implications

[Development C&P]

New emerging axis of Russia, China and Pakistan: regional implications

By:
Zainab Aziz
18-Mar-17


The international political structure is at the apex of transformation. Previously, an improbable combination of Pakistan, Russia and China is now changing into a powerful realignment either intended to bring a greater bipolarity in the world affairs or to challenge the hegemonic power of the US in the world. Strategic dimensions of the geopolitical world change at an astonishing speed, sometimes without the states knowing the repercussions it brings in the coming years. The same situation now seems to be taking place between the Cold War rivals Pakistan and Russia. Russia, being a traditional ally of India, which reassured India’s stance on Kashmir everytime, is now showing evident indications of getting into closer relationships with Pakistan.

Just when the China declined the international tribunal’s verdict over its claim on the South China Sea, Russia declared to support China along with holding the joint naval exercises in the disputed sea. Moreover, Russia is boosting its military ties with Pakistan by carrying out joint military drills in September 2016 in Pakistan which were joined by some 200 soldiers of the Russian army. China and Russia have been a long time strategic partnersmainly because of their ideological clashes with the United States, which became a common enemy to both the countries. For this reason, Russia and China try to dwindle the US influence in their corresponding regions. The ingression of Pakistan in this matrix is sending out clear signs of fledgeling friendship.

The apparent strategic interest of Russia behind the Russia-Pakistan-China axis seems to be in Moscow’s interest in getting more room for the advancement of its pivotal role than only re-balancing the region. Assessing the current political environment suggests that Moscow is not only hankering to counter the US supremacy in the region but also wants to dislodge the China’s status as the major countervailing force in the region. This Russian grand strategy is to devise a game plan involving the conglomeration of passive engagement (Pakistan and Iran), direct intervention (Syria and Ukraine) and crisis profiteering (Islamic State, South China Sea, Turkey), as the instruments of increasing influence of Russia in the Eurasia region.

As the Moscow manifested many times its interest in strengthening its ties with Beijing and Islamabad, a theory about the super power triangle of China, Pakistan and Russia is becoming more discernable. The reason that the China-Russia-Pakistan superpower triangle is becoming a reality (along with Russia’s status as the chief weapon supplier to India) would not only result in helping these countries to fight the menace of radicalism and terrorism but also to defy the United States’ increasing influence in the region. As a matter of fact, this alliance of Pakistan, China and Russia appears to be a more intimidating force as all the three states are nuclear powers. According to the official figures provided by the SIPRI, around 7,620 nuclear warheads are possessed by the three states combined. This superpower triangle would possess a prodigious lead in the war against any of its enemy, be it a US or India.

Contrary to the Americans, who always preach morals to the Eastern allies on almost everything from religious freedom to the democratic norms, Russia keeps aside the morality and its perception in the international politics while focusing on achieving its strategic interests. This became apparent in Russia’s recent military drills with Pakistan despite India’s requests to stop the exercises following the Uri terror attacks for which Pakistan was blamed.

As India took its traditional ally Russia for granted for a longer period of time, Moscow observed the growing ties of India with the US patiently. Although Russia supported the US struggle to get India into the non-proliferation mainstream through the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver and in the nuclear energy expansion (Haripur nuclear project), the balance started to change apparently when Russia was hit continuously by the burgeoning India-US relations. Moscow has been India’s most reliable friend and the largest defence partner for more than four decades since the 1971 Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty was signed in 1971. Though the Indian army faced difficulties after the disintegration of Soviet Union in terms of obsolete arsenals, India kept on receiving military equipment from its all-weather friend, despite Israel’s entry into it now.

On the other side, India is likely to get more involved in the US strategic ambit on various domains, i.e. sophisticated space technology, defence and nuclear technology. India has moved ahead by transcending the critical juncture of signing the strategic agreement of Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA). For China, this agreement means an implicit military alliance of India and US against China in which India is specifically playing the hedging role. This situation convinced Moscow to review its time-tested friendship with the India.

In order to avoid international isolation, Pakistan has invited Russia to participate in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to promote the expanding interaction within the axis. The Pakistan-Russia Rapprochement and their common bonding with China, in many ways, reiterates the Liaquat Ali Khan's time and again repeated the statement of 1949 that "Pakistan cannot afford to wait. She must take her friends where she finds them." This statement at that time was intended to appease Moscow when Pakistan was dissatisfied with Washington’s favourable inclinations towards Jawaharlal Nehru. The circumstances seem to have changed wholly as Pakistan confronts a similar strategic condition now.


The writer can be reached at zainab@thesvi.org

http://dailytimes.com.pk/blog/18-Ma...ssia-china-and-pakistan-regional-implications

 

[Development C&P]

Pak-China-Russia nexus ‘scenario-changer’ for South Asia: Chinese experts

By:
NNI
05-Mar-17

ISLAMABAD: Terming CPEC a ‘scenario-changer’ for South Asia rather than being just a ‘game-changer’, Chinese experts on the region inferred emerging nexus between Pakistan, China and Russia to be a defining development for the region’s flourishing future.

They were deliberating at a session on ‘Trump’s South Asia Policy: Quadrilateral interaction between Pakistan, China, India and USA and Challenges to CPEC’, held at Institute of Policy Studies (IPS).

The session was partaken by a three-member delegation from China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) – China’s largest, oldest and most influential research institutes for international studies, overseen by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China – which was led by CICIR’s Institute of South, Southeast Asian and Oceanic Studies Director Hu Shisheng. The research faculty of IPS was represented by Lead Coordinator Irfan Shahzad, Senior Associate Brigadier (r) Said Nazir Mohmand and researchers Fareeha Sarwar and Waqarunnisa as key discussants.

Shisheng said that he had no doubts that the Chinese dream of CPEC was fast becoming a reality which had immense potential for all its stakeholders. He added that transparency as well as expectation management must be induced as an integral part of all CPEC projects to ensure their smooth progress.

Another Chinese delegate Lin Yiming, in his presentation, referred to decades of close and cordial relations between China and Pakistan stating that the relationship, which was always built around deep-rooted trust and mutual respect, was only expected to get stronger with time, especially with the advent of CPEC. He believed that China’s stance and policy over Pakistan was certain to remain equally amiable in distant future as well.

Du Yanjun, the special assistant to CICIR President, viewed that the emerging nexus of Pakistan, China and Russia will be yet another important outcome of CPEC along with many others. She maintained that the Chinese were eagerly looking ahead for this trilateral collaboration and its possible outgrowths.

IPS Director General Khalid Rahman, who was chairing the session, concluded the discussion stressing the need for developing business dispute settlement mechanism among Pakistan and Chinese stakeholders to make it more transparent and inclusive. He added that a patient and positive attitude was mandatory from both sides, according to him, if they were to take this unique and precious relationship to a new level of amity as well as to reap the benefits of this cordial association mutually.

It was mutually felt by the discussants from both sides that CPEC should not be allowed to be used as a political card, instead it should be seen and projected as a mean of economic growth for both the nations. They also agreed to stay wary of any possible internal and external factors which might want to impede the venture for vested interests.

http://dailytimes.com.pk/pakistan/0...enario-changer-for-south-asia-chinese-experts

 

[mrrehan]

Russia's tilt towards Pakistan will be a body blow for India's security

At a high-level meeting held in Moscow on December 27, 2016, representatives from Russia, China and Pakistan underlined the growing influence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Afghanistan and the deteriorating security situation in the region.

According to the statement issued at the end of the meeting: "The Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China as the UN Security Council permanent members confirmed their flexible approach to delisting Afghan individuals from the UN sanctions lists as their contribution to the efforts aimed at launching peaceful dialogue between Kabul and Taliban."

What has surprised everyone is the exclusion of Afghanistan from the negotiations, apparently aimed at discussing the security situation in conflict-ridden Afghanistan. This trilateral initiative stands in open contrast to the publicly-stated positions of all the countries of supporting the Afghan-owned and Afghan-led reconciliation process. Sensing the mounting Afghan opposition, the group has finally decided to include Afghanistan in the next meeting. While Iran is soon going to be part of the group, there is no proposal to involve India.

Much to India's disappointment, the emerging axis between Moscow, Islamabad and Beijing seems to have put Pakistan in the driver's seat, according it greater control over the future of Afghanistan.

Russia's diplomatic efforts to accommodate the Taliban as an instrument against the ISIS, in tandem with Pakistan and China, may also have unexpected ramifications for Indo-Russian ties. The Indian leadership, both publicly and behind diplomatic corridors, has been trying to convince Russia that Pakistan is the fountainhead of terrorism in the region. But India's traditional ally Russia is not convinced.

Even though Russia' diplomatic engagement with the Taliban has begun to strain Moscow-Kabul ties, as well as put Russia's historic and strategic partnership with India at great risk, Moscow's engagement with the Taliban is driven by a number of counterterrorism and security reasons.

Russian foreign policymakers believe that engagement with the Taliban is essential for maintaining long-term political stability in Afghanistan; Moscow can use the Taliban's opposition to Islamic State (ISIS) to further Russia's counter-terrorism objectives; and Pakistan's role is crucial in bringing peace to war-torn Afghanistan.

The Russian leadership views the Taliban as a useful partner in its fight against the ISIS. Putin has long worried about jihadists from former Soviet republics joining the ISIS' fight in Syria. For this very reason, Russia sees ISIS as a particular threat in a way it doesn't see Taliban.

Speaking in December 2015, President Putin's special representative to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, candidly acknowledged that "Taliban interests objectively coincide with ours... We have communication channels with the Taliban to exchange information".

In December 2016, Russia's ambassador to Afghanistan, Alexander Mantyskiy, conceded that Moscow maintained relations with the Taliban, while insisting that Russia's contacts with the Taliban were not "intensive" and aimed only at ensuring the safety of Russian citizens.

The war against the ISIS has necessitated a most unlikely alliance of convenience between Russia and Taliban, and between Pakistan and Russia. Moscow's diplomatic outreach toward the Taliban has provided legitimacy to the Taliban insurgency and frustrated the efforts of the Afghan government to militarily defeat the Taliban.

The Russian argument hinges on the view that ISIS is a global threat, while the Taliban is just a localised phenomenon. Even as Russia is more worried about the ISIS than about losing India's friendship, Pakistani policymakers are making all-out efforts to be seen as acting in Russian interests. Islamabad does not want to miss the historic opportunity of exploiting Russia's sense of vulnerability arising from the ISIS threat.

Russia's major strategic partners in the region Iran and China have also increased their engagement with the Taliban. Strategically, these circumstances have put Pakistan in a more advantageous position than India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi categorically stated in Amritsar in early December 2016 that action should be taken not only against the forces of terrorism, "but also against those who support, sustain, train and finance them".

India also continues to oppose the integration of the Taliban into the Afghan government so long as it does not renounce terrorism. At a time when New Delhi has been trying hard to isolate Islamabad for supporting terrorism in the region, Russia is moving toward greater acceptance of Pakistan, much like China has done.

During the last two years, several high-ranking Pakistani officials have travelled to Moscow to boost bilateral ties, which has also resulted in the Mi-35 helicopter deal between the two countries.

The growing bonhomie reflected in the first-ever Russia-Pakistan joint military exercise held in September 2016 in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, and the first-ever Russia-Pakistan consultation on regional issues in mid-December 2016 at Islamabad.

Moreover, after initially denying Pakistani media reports that Russia would join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and acquire access to the Gwadar port, Russia's ambassador to Pakistan, Alexey Y Dedov, has now clarified that Moscow and Islamabad have held discussions to merge the China-backed CPEC with Russia-backed Eurasian Economic Union.

Although Russia continues to insist that its ties with Pakistan will not come at the cost of its ties with India, Moscow's tilt towards Islamabad has certainly injected growing uncertainty in the direction of the India-Russia relationship.

Russia's engagement with the Taliban, its military cooperation with Pakistan and possible support for the CPEC have the potential to harm India's vital strategic interests.

US President-elect Donald Trump has indicated that he wishes to curtail American military involvement worldwide. If the Trump administration continues with the previous US policy of supporting the peace process led by the Ashraf Ghani-led national unity government, it will allow India to continue with its current policy of deeper economic and strategic partnership with Afghanistan. But if Trump decides to reduce Washington's focus on Kabul, India's options would be very limited.

Although there may be uneasy times ahead for India's relationship with Russia, the Indian diplomacy will have to be both dynamic and imaginative to secure New Delhi's security interests in Afghanistan.


By: Vinay Kaura

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/isis-...an-ties-cpec-china-taliban/story/1/14918.html