Looking at India's condition and the fact that every ill that befalls it is because of Pakistan or ISI, i think Pakistan doesn't need to invade. Job is already done. Plus o
India's conditions are much better than yours.. It's better not drain the hard earned money from IMF.. If you really want to know why we concerned ISI over your army, read this article.. 2013 article but worth reading..
Nawaz Sharif raises Pak's defence budget; does India have to worry?
First, here is some news that some may find alarming.
Pakistan has just increased its annual defence outlay in 2013-14 budget by 10 percent -- to 627.2 billion Pakistani rupees (PKR) from current year's 570 billion (revised allocation).
What does it signify for India? Does India have to worry?
Can Pakistan launch a military provocation against India like what happened in 1999 during the previous regime of Sharif when Pakistan triggered the Kargil War?
The brief and emphatic answer is: NO. Here are the detailed reasons and a deconstruction of Sharif's seemingly bold move.
Sharif, once bitten twice shy, wants cordial relations with the army. AP
Pakistan cannot afford a war even with Nepal or Bhutan (for argument's sake), leave alone India. Its actual foreign exchange reserves have fallen to just about four billion dollars which are not enough even for one month's imports. According to international norms, a nation state should consider itself in the comfort zone only when it has enough foreign exchange reserves for at least three month's imports.
In contrast, India's foreign exchange reserves are a healthy $ 292 billion as of 31 May, 2013.
Pakistan is on the precipice of an acute economic crisis and financial experts have been arguing that it should seek a bailout of at least $ 5 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the sooner the better. But then borrowing from the IMF is unlike you and me borrowing a few lakh rupees from a local bank. The IMF lays out a long list of stringent pre-conditions before it releases the first tranche of the agreed bailout amount.
Seeking a bailout from the IMF virtually means allowing it to micro-manage your country's economy.
Nobody knows it better than Pakistan which took the IMF route to overcome its last fiscal crisis in 2008 and borrowed $ 11 billion. The Pakistan People's Party-led coalition government found it much too hard to continue dancing to the IMF tune and eventually walked out of the bailout programme in 2011. But the important point is that Pakistan still owes $ 5 billion to the IMF.
So if Pakistan seeks another $ 5 billion bailout, it would actually amount to $ 10 billion. That is the quandary before Nawaz Sharif.
And yet, the budget appears intended to appease IMF for earning a bail-out package from it, with total amount of fiscal adjustments, including lowering of subsidies, at 655 billion (2.5 percent of GDP), which is higher than target of 2 percent suggested by IMF in preliminary talks. Total size of federal outlays went up barely by 21 billion (0.6 percent) over last year's. Deficit is projected at 1.6 trillion (6.3 percent of GDP), lower than last year's 8.8 percent.
But then why did Sharif raise the defence budget in spite of his country reeling under acute economic crisis marked by high inflation, weak economic growth, grave energy crisis, depleting foreign exchange reserves and opposition from civil society?
Bad economics often makes good politics. Who would know this better than the old fox Sharif? His move should be seen as an insurance policy for his own survival. After all, how would he navigate the ship of his country out of the choppy waters until his own survival is first ensured!
Nawaz Sharif's clever move, therefore, is aimed at placating the army with whose blessings he can think of completing his term which he has been unable to do in his past two tenures. Wasn't it the army and the man called General Pervez Musharraf who had ousted him in a bloodless coup on 12 October, 1999 after Pakistan suffered a bloody nose and loss of face internationally in the Kargil War?
Sharif, once bitten twice shy, wants cordial relations with the army. That is why, in a move designed to hide actual defence spending, separate allocations have been made from civil budget for payment of defence pension (132.7 billion) and security related expenses (78 billion - in addition to 72 billion allocated under the same head to police forces).
The military also gets additional 150 billion under contingent liability, 70 billion under Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and 35 billion for UN peace-keeping missions, totaling the actual defence budget to 1,014 billion, amounting to 28 per cent of total budget.
Allocation under all heads of Defence spending has been increased, with operational expenses up from 146 billion to 162 billion and physical assets from 120 billion to 131 billion. (All figures are in Pakistani Rupee.)
Pakistan government expects reimbursement of PKR 112.135 billion from CSF next year. Unpopular measures likely to generate public ire, worth 167 billion, include increase in GST from 16 to 17 percent, additional 5 percent sales tax on unregistered industrial/commercial power/gas consumers on monthly bill of over PKR 15,000, increase in excise duty on soft drinks from 6 to 9 percent, tax of PKR 1/KG on locally produced ghee and cooking oil, PKE 4/KG on imported seeds, adjustable withholding tax on wedding parties at hotels/banquet halls/clubs to be paid by organizers, tax on cash withdrawals from banks, adjustable advance tax of 5 percent on educational fees, increase in vehicle tax, abolition of fiscal relief package to 13 districts of KP, FATA and PATA affected by war on terror, non-increase of salaries of government servants for the first time in years.
The list is long and one can go on.
But to cut a long tale short, the just-installed Nawaz Sharif government is going to face its first test by fire soon. Pakistani government servants under the banner of 'All Pakistan Federal Employees Union' have already declared strike on 21 June. They want the government to lower income tax, no tax up to income of Rs.4 lakhs, increase in tax holiday period on industrial investments from 5 to 10 years, reduction of tax on import of hybrid vehicles, with no tax on those up to 1200 cc, etc.
A disturbing feature, however, revealed by the Budget documents reveals that the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) was provided PKR 600 million to accomplish a 'Special Assignment" on the directive of Pakistan PM. The amount was released to DG, ISI under the head of 'Supplementary Demands for Grants and Appropriations 2012-13'.
Pakistan's Defence Budget is rarely discussed in Parliament and ISI's budget is never documented in the general budget. As such, this is a rare case, although no details are given about the "Special Assignment" carried out by the ISI.
Documents also show expenditure of PKR 300 million on operational requirements of Pakistan IB and PKR 900 million on its employees.
This is the real point of worry for India. Indian security establishment will have to be hundred times more cautious in the coming days. ISI does not waste its money on non-India-centric operations.
