Navy Needs More Muscle To Tackle China

[Zarvan]

by Sandeep Dikshit

The South Block has packaged the ritual foray by naval ships in the Indo-Pacific into a flag-waving exercise in South China Sea. Indian warships are similarly engaged in the Gulf. Will this hype be carried over to Modi's US visit?

Indian naval helicopers rehearsing for the International Fleet review in Visakhapatnam in February this year. President Pranab Mukherjee reviewed a fleet of 70 naval ships, including several from foreign countries. PTI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi makes his fourth visit to the US this June. His joint address to the US Senate and the Congress is being touted as a major milestone in India-US ties. But several developments in the region should dampen his enthusiasm to go ahead with the burgeoning maritime partnership with the US, intended to corral China's growing influence in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific.

The keenness among the quartet forged by the US to accomplish this purpose has started waning. It all began with the dethroning of Tony Abott as Australian Prime Minister, who like Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, were willing partners for the move to divide responsibility in the oceans girding China as well as washing up their shores.

Abott's replacement, Malcolm Turnbull has sent the first signal that while Australia will leave no stone unturned to guard its periphery, it would not like it to be misinterpreted in China. Much against popular anticipation among local think tanks, Turnbull decided to upend Japanese plans to mark their first foray into defence exports. The mouthwatering contract for a dozen submarines instead went to France with no stakes in the region after it was drummed out decades back from what was called Indo-China. The US-Japanese ploy to involve Australia into a deeper military embrace, of the kind being attempted with India, remains stillborn.

And just last week, a rank outsider with no link to the families that have dominated politics in the Philippines became President. Apart from his eye-grabbing resolve of a bullet for bullet strategy against hoodlums, Rodrigo Duterte expressed willingness to partner with China in oil exploration in South China Sea. Protesting ambassadors of the US and Australia were ordered to “shut their mouths”. Duterte may well become restrained as he grows in his job but his stand is a far cry from the days when his country hosted a massive US naval base. It was the first to militarise an island in South China Sea by building a runway and constructing military fortifications (in a hilarious incident one of them was stormed and occupied by another US ally, South Vietnam, while the resident Phillipino military contingent was away for a musical soiree).

Another potential ally Vietnam is too sharp to put all its eggs in the American basket. A quick look at the overseas itinerary of its top leaders confirms its balancing between the US, China and India. Hanoi ensures a senior government or Communist Party member is making the rounds of the Forbidden City whenever there is a high-level visit to New Delhi or Washington.

In any case, members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are actively weighing the benefits of the $250 billion Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) to consider a frontal confrontation with China. In any case, this financing facility also ropes in South Korea and Japan. While South Korea is one of the rare countries with a positive trade balance with China and also has an unpredictable North Korea on its borders, the glitter of Abe's much-touted Abenomics has distinctly faded. This and his failed bid to quickly settle the Kuril Island dispute with Russian President Vladimir Putin may have tempered his appetite for aggression with China.

Modi may not like to make his Washington visit another occasion to ratchet up India's interest in South China Sea in a scenario where players with direct stakes in the dispute are being conscpiciously circumspect. The South Block has started on the right note by dismissing a senior Pentagon military hawk's proposal for joint India-US naval patrols. With China and Russia forging still closer links and fine-tuning their approach to several disputes in the wider region, the last thing India would want is Russia turning lukewarm to its quest for more nuclear- powered submarines and a share in the pie in the thawing and mineral- rich Arctic region. More than aircraft carriers and fancy sea-borne missiles, nuclear-powered submarines are a potent and credible deterrent, with their ability to lie undetected for long periods. Of the handful of countries with the ability to build these submarines, Russia is and will remain India's only supplier for a long time to come.

If India is to make its naval flotilla a serious contender in the Indian Ocean or even the Indo-Pacific (the new term for the maritime sphere from here to the West Pacific), it needs to add potency to the existing platforms. The proposed US -India Defence Technology and Partnership Act will take time to bear fruit in the form of transfer of latest technology. With French Scorpene submarines beginning to take to the sea, the need is to close price negotiations for American anti-submarine choppers, hunt for alternate suppliers of torpedoes (now that the shortlisted supplier Finmeccanica is ruled out because of the AgustaWestland controversy) and add to the fleet of long-endurance naval reconnaissance planes.

Obama may have talked up India’s role in the wider maritime domain during his visit to India last year. The bitter truth is his recent accounts of the state of play in the Indo-Pacific left India out altogether. Obama more than anyone else would know India's defence preparedness and economic muscle has some distance to cover before it starts taking sides in disputes between great powers. In plain terms, Modi's Washington visit should achieve closure on bread and butter issues that would make other nations consider Indian Navy as a serious force rather than deliver another grandiose vision statement that needlessly makes potential rivals sit up and take counter measures.

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