Can Bangladesh play the Indo-China game?
Published: 00:05, Sep 27,2017 | Updated: 00:32, Sep 27,2017
This photograph taken on September 24 shows a group of Rohingya refugees at the newly-expanded camp housing refugees from Myanmar known as Kutupalong Extension at Ukhia. — Agence France-Presse/Dominique Faget
THE embarrassment of having our two most powerful allies turning out to be even more reliable allies of Myanmar, the country which has put us into big trouble, is huge. We were caught in a tripartite struggle where we were the most vulnerable. But we should recognise today as the first day of the rest of our international life and plan accordingly.
A review of the strategic priorities of India and China shows that their present stand was inevitable. The deep fault lines of Myanmar and its Rohingya crisis have also been developing for years. We should have known as it has affected us very negatively. And most importantly, we should have read our friends better.
Rohingya insurgency groups were active by the early 1970s and regularly visiting Dhaka and getting media coverage. By 1977 when the first wave came, it was thought to be a temporary problem and many went back. However, the Myanmar government was weaker than it is now and was forced to concede to international pressure as Rohingyas were still citizens of Myanmar. Why the authorities never saw this as a continuous crisis is probably because they are not used to such strategic, long-term and multi-optional planning.
In 1984, the Rohingyas lost their citizenship status and their arrival was a matter of time. From 1984 to 1992–3 is almost a decade, a long time but no steps were taken to stop the tide which was again inevitable as, if pushed, they had no place to go and this has been going on for centuries.
The Rohingya eviction policy is well planned one and once Myanmar was certain that Bangladesh could not do much about it, the next steps were taken. The strategy is push out, manage international criticism by taking a few back, then push out again and keep repeating the same till the Rohingyas are all gone. They have also got Bangladesh trapped into bilateralism in which they know Bangladesh cannot win. And they have recently offered one more round of the same. Most probably, Bangladesh will step into this trap once more.
But Myanmar of 1978 and that of 2017 are very different with one established partner China and an aspirant one, India. China has been Myanmar’s lifeline for all the sanctioned years and we should have anticipated that it will stand by Myanmar, not Bangladesh, given its deep economic and strategic roots.
Our relationship with China is largely commercial and it is Bangladesh’s main supplier of military hardware as well.
Meanwhile, India is trying to push its foot into that room now. Chinese billions are expected to make Bangladesh less dependent on India which is a popular idea. However, India is also competing with China in Mynamar on economic and strategic issue and it is here that the problem is sourced.
While China is deeply embedded in Myanmar, India is desperately trying to get in as well.
India wants three things.
(a) It wants Myanmar to go after the Nagas who take shelter in Myanmar.
(b) It wants to have a ‘transit’ through Myanmar to its troubled north-east.
(c) It wants more trade with Myanmar — Look East policy — as its western business connections run slightly out of steam. India is doing great but it wants to do better money-wise.
India is smart enough to know that there are limits to what it can achieve in South Asian economies facing a new rival China and needs more partners. So it has taken on China in its own exclusive playground, Myanmar. However, that is intended than done.
But while China is very solid in Myanmar because of years of investing and support, India is a relatively new entrant. It is dealing with both insecurity and investment in Myanmar; and Bangladesh needs to understand that better. Shockingly ambitious as it may seem, Bangladesh needs to play its limited cards without giving in.
The key may lie not in higher trade but granting transit to India. Bangladesh should explore if it can link support to its Rohingya position in return for transit facilities to India. It has been given very easily as our negotiators are unable to compete with Indians but it can be raised for discussions along with the other critical issue of sanctuary refusal to north-eastern rebels which India appreciates.
The reason Bangladesh did not seek ‘Rohingya’ concessions and is now weeping hard is because India was pressing and Bangladesh never thought it was in a position to negotiate. Had Bangladesh played the China card at the negotiating table and let India know that the north-east is the only pressure point that India pays attention to, this could have been relatively better than the complete ignoring that Bangladesh is facing at Indian hands.
But Bangladesh should find solace in the somewhat unplanned concessions India has offered to Myanmar, not knowing that China is better known to its ruling army than India can be. It has provided arms, including torpedoes, for Myanmar, set up military training schools hoping to usher them into UN peacekeeping and, of course, is willing to invest in lieu of transit, trade and reining in Naga rebels, thus its trade and the north-east, closer to its Bangladesh agenda as well.
At this point of time, Bangladesh cannot put pressure on China but a more proactive South Asian informal coalition can send a message that there are other presences in the region beyond India and Pakistan. China wants to invest in this zone and the five countries are all partners of OBOR also. So China has a stake and OBOR cannot work with Myanmar alone. Hence, the economic pressure points are the only ones to play with China for the moment as it has invested billions and need more willing partners for more.
It is a very asymmetric situation as the Myanmar crisis shows between Indo-China and the rest. But there are some breathing spaces and it is not in bilateralism. It is a pragmatic/cynical rhetoric free post-cold war world in which the smaller countries can survive only if they apply skills they still do not have but need to learn. Myanmar has shown how long-term planning works. We should learn from this country.
Afsan Chowdhury is a journalist and researcher.
http://www.newagebd.net/article/24910/can-bangladesh-play-the-indo-china-game
