PakPrinciples
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** I originally wrote this back around March 20th, 2020 around when my laptop broke and I only received a replacement recently so a lot of the information may seem old now but I have updated it a little **
My Thoughts | Lockdowns are Suicide
The actions, most very late to this pandemic, world governments have taken made no sense and there are those in Pakistan who seem to be losing their minds over the spread of the novel coronavirus namely parties like the PPP and PML-N who have over exaggerated the threat this virus poses to Pakistan while admittedly others in the country seem to outright discount the threat all together.
I want to preface what I’m about to say with the fact that I am NOT a medical professional, I have no experience in dealing with infectious disease pandemics so we should always be consulting the relevant experts but what I am about to write is based on my readings of findings and research materials. I could be way off, the effect malnourishment and polio have had on our population isn't totally understood or known but I'm interested in seeing what others have to say on this.
SARS-CoV-2 is not airborne, at least there’s very little evidence to suggest this, instead what we do know is that it’s transmitted through contact with respiratory droplets containing the virus whether that comes from someone coughing on you, shaking your hands after having wiped their nose or having coughed on an object you touched in all cases getting respiratory droplets/bodily fluid containing the virus into your respiratory tract (mouth/nose).
We have a pretty good understanding of the symptoms which appear in stages, so it’s crucial to educate the public and have people self quarantine then report to local medical authorities when you exhibit the following:
It’s also understood how long the coronavirus remains viable on a host of surfaces:
Instead of enforcing draconian lockdowns steps that should have been taken immediately could include :
Recall Pakistan is a nation of very young people:
The virus worst affects those over 60 years of age which represents a small portion of our entire population with 65+ year olds representing about 5% of our total population:
Now that doesn’t mean people under 60 aren’t in danger however observed mortality rates among 0 to 50 years olds was at most 1.3% in China even less in Italy which was worse affected.
Furthermore due to Pakistan’s lack of economic development and opportunities women primarily work at home so you may see less exposure to covid19 by a large segment of half our population while our elderly aren't relegated to live and suffer through the illness alone like they do in the west because of our cultural norms which itself could help in preventing, detecting and reporting the illness to relevant authorities and securing prompt treatment averting higher death tolls.
Why you likely see higher hospitalization and death rates in countries like Italy is because of their aging population where the 65+ year olds represent almost 22% of their country:
In China about 11% of their population was over 65 while in Spain, almost as badly affected as Italy, their 65+ population represents over 18% of the population.
There are major concerns though...
When it comes to Pakistan, I’ve stated this years ago, malnourishment has compromised the immune systems of many of our people especially the young as has polio while our health care system is nowhere as developed as those in the West or China meaning we cannot provide the level of care they can so our government should have aired on the side of caution when handling this pandemic despite the virus not impacting children, teens and young/middle aged adults the way it does the elderly.
Unfortunately the best opportunity to suppress this was 2 or 3 months back which both the PTI federal government and provincial governments like the PPP squandered.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6731689/who-squandered-window-coronavirus/amp/
It’s likely that Pakistani officials discounted this threat due to SARS-CoV-1 having infected only about 8000 people in 26 countries with a similar R0 of 3. However one should note the viral outbreak was contained due to similar measures I keep referring to as those cited in a Lancet study which states:
Even now they are squandering time bickering about lockdowns which will wind up badly hurting our economy resulting in increased poverty that will kill a lot more of our people than the coronavirus could.
Despite massive lockdowns in Italy and Spain you see better outcomes from no lockdowns in countries like Sweden.
The $5 Billion stimulus announced by the PTI is not enough to avert financial disaster instead the money would be better spent on:
Right now you have a fearful population which is ignoring clinical data and the most vulnerable with libtards and corrupt garbage like the PPP and PML-N demanding lockdowns, brainwashing the public into supporting them at the cost of tens of millions.
How long does the PPP intend to shut down Sindh for?
How long do the morons in the PPP expect the PTI to shut down Pakistan for?
Who is going to pay for the food and rents of possibly millions of labourers who ventured into Pakistan’s cities, what we call urbanization, to work low paying jobs in a country which already struggles to collect tax revenues will now collect even less?
We don’t have a cure all for influenza nor do we have one for SARS-CoV-1 or AIDS and there’s no guarantee SARS-CoV-2 won’t mutate into something that the “upcoming” vaccine can’t fight considering MERS-CoV had at least 3 distinct genotypes.
Even if a vaccine is developed scientists estimate it could take 18 months to do so, which itself is fast, and that doesn’t include the time needed to manufacture it on a large scale, organize distribution channels, training for personnel to vaccinate maybe millions of people because we don't have enough doctors and nurses to do this quickly and then actually organizing the vaccination of those people.
What astounds me is that since the 90s, under PPP and PML-N rule, over 150,000 Pakistani children under the age of 5 have been dying a year due to malnourishment. Italy, probably the worst affected by the coronavirus, has seen about 151 deaths per 1 Million people whereas malnourishment has killed about 850 Pakistani’s per 1 Million people and that's just our children under the age of 5.
This panic didn’t exist for years, no public health emergencies demanded by the PPP or PML-N then, so why now?
All this while the novel coronavirus has a mortality rate of 1 death per 1 Million people in Pakistan which is one of the lowest in the world. Even if we're off by 85,000% it would only be as bad as undernourishment on our country.
Maybe they care so much because it isn’t only the poor dying or suffering anymore instead Pakistan’s trash like Zardari, Shabaz Sharif, Bilwal Bhutto and Sherry Rehman are at risk now too.
To quote Shabaz Sharif “...we’re all going to die.”
Because the public doesn’t comprehend the truly dire financial situation we’ve been put into by military rule under Musharraf and civilian rule under Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) or Zardari (PPP) they think a lockdown on the scale they imagine or see in richer economies is no big deal ignoring the massive financial burden they’ve taken on.
In neighbouring Iran, which is under severe sanctions and has imposed limited to no lockdowns, they’ve only seen about 0.0004% of their population infected. If reports from their country are to be believed, which I don’t fully trust, they may reach a point total infections will level out and stabilize within a few months and start to decrease as more people recover and there are fewer infected (view attachments):
As Andrew Cuomo famously stated Iran will eventually “flatten the curve” and so will Pakistan.
Instead financial assistance should be focused on the most vulnerable segments of the population specifically those over 60 years of age and others with Pre-existing health conditions (ex. cancer, asthma, diabetes, heart disease, AIDS, etc...) who need to be isolated in their own private rooms and their families provided the financial and material support to ensure their well being.
This is backed by data coming out of New York City which confirms that, within any age group, at least 70 to 80% of all deaths resulting from this novel coronavirus are among those who have pre-existing health conditions (view attachment):
Instead what a host of world governments have done is isolated everyone, wreaked havoc on their domestic economies especially detrimental to nations not as industrialized and well off where hunger resulting from them will likely kill far more over the long term than this virus would have.
My Thoughts | Lockdowns are Suicide
The actions, most very late to this pandemic, world governments have taken made no sense and there are those in Pakistan who seem to be losing their minds over the spread of the novel coronavirus namely parties like the PPP and PML-N who have over exaggerated the threat this virus poses to Pakistan while admittedly others in the country seem to outright discount the threat all together.
I want to preface what I’m about to say with the fact that I am NOT a medical professional, I have no experience in dealing with infectious disease pandemics so we should always be consulting the relevant experts but what I am about to write is based on my readings of findings and research materials. I could be way off, the effect malnourishment and polio have had on our population isn't totally understood or known but I'm interested in seeing what others have to say on this.
SARS-CoV-2 is not airborne, at least there’s very little evidence to suggest this, instead what we do know is that it’s transmitted through contact with respiratory droplets containing the virus whether that comes from someone coughing on you, shaking your hands after having wiped their nose or having coughed on an object you touched in all cases getting respiratory droplets/bodily fluid containing the virus into your respiratory tract (mouth/nose).
We have a pretty good understanding of the symptoms which appear in stages, so it’s crucial to educate the public and have people self quarantine then report to local medical authorities when you exhibit the following:
- Mild Symptoms (81%)
- Fever
- Dry Cough (no phlegm)
- Symptoms in severe cases (14%)
- Shortness of Breath
- Pneumonia like symptoms
- 3. Symptoms in critical cases (5%)
- Respiratory failure
- Septic shock
- Multi organ failure
It’s also understood how long the coronavirus remains viable on a host of surfaces:
Instead of enforcing draconian lockdowns steps that should have been taken immediately could include :
- Impose a mandatory requirement for everyone to wear a face covering in public. This is especially important for those who are coughing to protect others as it limits their ability to spread respiratory droplets containing the virus.
- Dispense soaps to the general public specifically the impoverished and encourage regular hand washing.
- There should be public announcements made via TV, radio, newspapers, flyers and volunteers presenting on the streets running 24/7 for the next few months to educate the public especially about how to properly wash your hands.
- Ban large gatherings over 50 people and close restaurants but allow people to pickup food or have it delivered.
Recall Pakistan is a nation of very young people:
The virus worst affects those over 60 years of age which represents a small portion of our entire population with 65+ year olds representing about 5% of our total population:
Now that doesn’t mean people under 60 aren’t in danger however observed mortality rates among 0 to 50 years olds was at most 1.3% in China even less in Italy which was worse affected.
Furthermore due to Pakistan’s lack of economic development and opportunities women primarily work at home so you may see less exposure to covid19 by a large segment of half our population while our elderly aren't relegated to live and suffer through the illness alone like they do in the west because of our cultural norms which itself could help in preventing, detecting and reporting the illness to relevant authorities and securing prompt treatment averting higher death tolls.
Why you likely see higher hospitalization and death rates in countries like Italy is because of their aging population where the 65+ year olds represent almost 22% of their country:
In China about 11% of their population was over 65 while in Spain, almost as badly affected as Italy, their 65+ population represents over 18% of the population.
There are major concerns though...
When it comes to Pakistan, I’ve stated this years ago, malnourishment has compromised the immune systems of many of our people especially the young as has polio while our health care system is nowhere as developed as those in the West or China meaning we cannot provide the level of care they can so our government should have aired on the side of caution when handling this pandemic despite the virus not impacting children, teens and young/middle aged adults the way it does the elderly.
Unfortunately the best opportunity to suppress this was 2 or 3 months back which both the PTI federal government and provincial governments like the PPP squandered.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6731689/who-squandered-window-coronavirus/amp/
It’s likely that Pakistani officials discounted this threat due to SARS-CoV-1 having infected only about 8000 people in 26 countries with a similar R0 of 3. However one should note the viral outbreak was contained due to similar measures I keep referring to as those cited in a Lancet study which states:
“SARS was eventually contained by means of syndromic surveillance, prompt isolation of patients, strict enforcement of quarantine of all contacts, and in some areas top-down enforcement of community quarantine.”
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30129-8/fulltext
These are the exact same strategies countries like South Korea, Mongolia, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong employed without resorting to the type of lockdowns like you see in Italy and libtards or corrupt nitwits like the PPP and PML-N are asking for.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30129-8/fulltext
Even now they are squandering time bickering about lockdowns which will wind up badly hurting our economy resulting in increased poverty that will kill a lot more of our people than the coronavirus could.
Despite massive lockdowns in Italy and Spain you see better outcomes from no lockdowns in countries like Sweden.
The $5 Billion stimulus announced by the PTI is not enough to avert financial disaster instead the money would be better spent on:
- Capital equipment to produce necessary supplies to treat and combat the spread of the virus with the immediate need to produce reagents, face masks (particularly N95 masks) along with gloves, soap and hand sanitizer.
- Retooling cosmetics, pharma, chemical and textile manufacturing companies to produce essential supplies.
- Immediately building millions of testing kits and start testing across the country quarantining those who have been in contact with the infected while isolating and treating the sick.
- Convert military, university, private/public school chemistry labs into clean rooms to test samples.
- Convert available buildings with power supplies into makeshift hospitals.
Right now you have a fearful population which is ignoring clinical data and the most vulnerable with libtards and corrupt garbage like the PPP and PML-N demanding lockdowns, brainwashing the public into supporting them at the cost of tens of millions.
How long does the PPP intend to shut down Sindh for?
How long do the morons in the PPP expect the PTI to shut down Pakistan for?
Who is going to pay for the food and rents of possibly millions of labourers who ventured into Pakistan’s cities, what we call urbanization, to work low paying jobs in a country which already struggles to collect tax revenues will now collect even less?
We don’t have a cure all for influenza nor do we have one for SARS-CoV-1 or AIDS and there’s no guarantee SARS-CoV-2 won’t mutate into something that the “upcoming” vaccine can’t fight considering MERS-CoV had at least 3 distinct genotypes.
Even if a vaccine is developed scientists estimate it could take 18 months to do so, which itself is fast, and that doesn’t include the time needed to manufacture it on a large scale, organize distribution channels, training for personnel to vaccinate maybe millions of people because we don't have enough doctors and nurses to do this quickly and then actually organizing the vaccination of those people.
What astounds me is that since the 90s, under PPP and PML-N rule, over 150,000 Pakistani children under the age of 5 have been dying a year due to malnourishment. Italy, probably the worst affected by the coronavirus, has seen about 151 deaths per 1 Million people whereas malnourishment has killed about 850 Pakistani’s per 1 Million people and that's just our children under the age of 5.
This panic didn’t exist for years, no public health emergencies demanded by the PPP or PML-N then, so why now?
All this while the novel coronavirus has a mortality rate of 1 death per 1 Million people in Pakistan which is one of the lowest in the world. Even if we're off by 85,000% it would only be as bad as undernourishment on our country.
Maybe they care so much because it isn’t only the poor dying or suffering anymore instead Pakistan’s trash like Zardari, Shabaz Sharif, Bilwal Bhutto and Sherry Rehman are at risk now too.
To quote Shabaz Sharif “...we’re all going to die.”
Because the public doesn’t comprehend the truly dire financial situation we’ve been put into by military rule under Musharraf and civilian rule under Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) or Zardari (PPP) they think a lockdown on the scale they imagine or see in richer economies is no big deal ignoring the massive financial burden they’ve taken on.
In neighbouring Iran, which is under severe sanctions and has imposed limited to no lockdowns, they’ve only seen about 0.0004% of their population infected. If reports from their country are to be believed, which I don’t fully trust, they may reach a point total infections will level out and stabilize within a few months and start to decrease as more people recover and there are fewer infected (view attachments):
As Andrew Cuomo famously stated Iran will eventually “flatten the curve” and so will Pakistan.
Instead financial assistance should be focused on the most vulnerable segments of the population specifically those over 60 years of age and others with Pre-existing health conditions (ex. cancer, asthma, diabetes, heart disease, AIDS, etc...) who need to be isolated in their own private rooms and their families provided the financial and material support to ensure their well being.
This is backed by data coming out of New York City which confirms that, within any age group, at least 70 to 80% of all deaths resulting from this novel coronavirus are among those who have pre-existing health conditions (view attachment):
Instead what a host of world governments have done is isolated everyone, wreaked havoc on their domestic economies especially detrimental to nations not as industrialized and well off where hunger resulting from them will likely kill far more over the long term than this virus would have.
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