My prediction: SCO will become a military alliance within 10 years

[Brahmaputra Mail]

India has no intention to be in a military alliance with anyone. Ekla cholo re.

 

[TaiShang]

thats what they (ISIS) want to get china involved. this gives isis the ability to try recruit chinese muslims. and it would be quiet easy. as terrorists only do such acts as they are poor and un employed. and the western part of china is also one of the poorest. once isis get some foot hold there it woul create chaos. remember neighbouring muslims countries are over run by them uzbekistan is a good example. china is doing it quietly so that isis wont be able to recruiting/influencing there.

Already lots of Uighur militants among the ranks of Syrian foreign opposition. Mostly in Nusra and other Turkey-supported groups across the West of Euphrates. ISIS is still too radical for most Uighurs, I guess, so, they are enlisted with moderate terror groups.

There is mechanisms to fight the ISIS; the threat is still less than what the Europe (Western) faces. And radicalization is the norm there while in China's case, there is a reversal of radicalism. There are programs and efforts that underlie a secular culture in the region. It will take time, but, it will be successful.

well the sco is made upof mostly ex soviet states in central asia and most of them have no business with the west or the usa. most of their business comes from russia and china. although the cpec corridor will open the world to them. and this is good, as one of the key to create a peacefull world is to make people prosper. once people are prosperous why fall for following mutated views of some thing that claims to be religious.

The SCO is basically China and Russia. In annual anti-terror exercises, it is China and Russia that commit troops the most. Those three countries are in because their governments are also vary of extremism, separatism and terrorism. I do not think they care more than that.

If SCO is to become a stronger grouping, it is only because China and Russia want it.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

May be , maybe not.
But both the cases will not be influenced by any action of India. India will only work to grow stronger and stronger economic relations with each and every state out there, bigger or smaller as we strive to fullfill the dreams of unprivileged Indians.

 

[Baybars Han]

Martian is living in la la land. jhungary made an excellent post explaining everything. Martian talks about annexing Mongolia annexing this and that. If it was all about military power then there would be a handful of countries left. Do you believe Russia wouldn't object to China annexing Mongolia? Do you believe Russia is happy of a rising China? If you do, you are deluded.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

SCO has a high probability of becoming a formal military alliance within 10 years. China, Russia, and Iran together can more forcefully resist Uncle Sam.

The SCO in its current format has more than one major power (Russia and China) that pursue foreign and military policies independent of each other. For a successful military alliance along the lines of NATO, the alliance needs to have only one major military and economic powerhouse that has an unchallenged leadership role and can be counted upon to influence the military policies of most, if not all, smaller alliance States. In addition, there needs to be a specific and clearly defined threat or 'enemy' that alliance members have consensus over, like communism/USSR was for NATO.

Even Iran is an outlier here, not because it rivals China or Russia's economic or military standing, but because it's foreign and military policies are independent of any other country and there appears to be limited Russian and Chinese influence on them.

A strong military alliance would require a level of faith on the part of member States that other member States will act responsibly and not drag the others into unnecessary military conflicts, like Russia in Georgia and Ukraine.

I can see a Russia led alliance (minus China and India) or a China led alliance (minus Russia and India), but these would have limited member States and a very clearly defined Charter with strong Chinese or Russian leadership.

For Pakistani readers, Pakistani participation in either hypothetical military alliance would be suspect, unless Pakistan can convince China or Russia that Pakistan will not instigate military conflict with India.

 

[Spectre]

The SCO in its current format has more than one major power (Russia and China) that pursue foreign and military policies independent of each other. For a successful military alliance along the lines of NATO, the alliance needs to have only one major military and economic powerhouse that has an unchallenged leadership role and can be counted upon to influence the military policies of most, if not all, smaller alliance States. In addition, there needs to be a specific and clearly defined threat or 'enemy' that alliance members have consensus over, like communism/USSR was for NATO.

Even Iran is an outlier here, not because it rivals China or Russia's economic or military standing, but because it's foreign and military policies are independent of any other country and there appears to be limited Russian and Chinese influence on them.

A strong military alliance would require a level of faith on the part of member States that other member States will act responsibly and not drag the others into unnecessary military conflicts, like Russia in Georgia and Ukraine.

I can see a Russia led alliance (minus China and India) or a China led alliance (minus Russia and India), but these would have limited member States and a very clearly defined Charter with strong Chinese or Russian leadership.

For Pakistani readers, Pakistani participation in either hypothetical military alliance would be suspect, unless Pakistan can convince China or Russia that Pakistan will not instigate military conflict with India.

The most realistic assessment in this fantastical thread without a shred of reason or logic.

China and Russia are friends with benefits with certain inherent contradictions among which the main is that neither is ready to be subservient to the other like the other Nations are to USA in NATO.

India is an equal opportunity poser with limited influence among some of it's neighbors. It is unlikely to take a stand against either of the pre-eminent global powers not even China with whom it has a adversarial relationship.

Iran is a an outlier with no real substance outside it's limited sphere of influence in ME and radical groups like Hezbollah.

Pakistan is trying to salvage whatever it can from it's own burning house with little to no appetite of being a pawn again.

The "stans" are Russians Proxies whom China is trying to poach.

All in all SCO has a very limited mandate and space to evolve.

Regards

 

[Viet]

Martian is living in la la land. jhungary made an excellent post explaining everything. Martian talks about annexing Mongolia annexing this and that. If it was all about military power then there would be a handful of countries left. Do you believe Russia wouldn't object to China annexing Mongolia? Do you believe Russia is happy of a rising China? If you do, you are deluded.

the OP has some serious mental problems. in one other thread, he wants China to annex India for the Han race. and the indian population? he wants to put them in concentration camps. "Mein Kampf" is probably his favorite book.

 

[Martian2]

China's and Russia's Peace Missions and Joint Sea Drills

On land, China and Russia have been holding frequent Peace Missions. These involve thousands of troops, aircraft, and heavy artillery (such as main battle tanks and self-propelled howitzers).

At sea, China and Russia are holding constant Joint Sea drills (including an exercise in the Mediterranean Sea).

When you look at the joint military operations between China and Russia in the Peace Missions and Joint Sea exercises, it looks like military coordination between two countries. It lays the ground-work for a military alliance. Hence, my prediction of a Sino-Russian SCO military alliance (with Iran) in the next ten years.

The Peace Missions and Joint Sea exercises will keep growing in scope and participation (after Iran's membership is evaluated after the lifting of UN sanctions in January 2016).

Russia has declared the United States as an enemy. Will China formally join Russia in a military alliance? That is the big question.

Another important question: Are China and Russia already in an undeclared military alliance?
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Putin names United States among threats in new Russian security strategy| Reuters

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References (Peace Mission 2013 and Peace Mission 2014):

"Peace Mission-2013": China-Russia relations in new context | Russia Beyond The Headlines ASIA

Analyzing Peace Mission 2014: China and Russia Exercise with the Central Asian States | SLDInfo

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Reference (Joint Sea II 2015):

China, Russia Land 400 Marines in First Joint Pacific Amphibious Exercise - USNI News

 

[j20blackdragon]

Russia and Iran both have huge oil reserves.

If the relations between the United States and China turn rancorous, China would be tempted to exchange a security guarantee for assured oil supplies.

Right now, China is sitting on the fence. It thinks a military alliance is bad for business.

However, if the US keeps annoying China in the South China Sea then China has a lot less to lose.

If relations between the US and China are already antagonistic, why not go all the way? Hence, I predict a militarized SCO if US-China relations go downhill over the next five to ten years.

The US doesn't have the balls to impose an oil blockade on China for two reasons.

1. CPEC is under construction and China will soon have a major staging base on the Arabian Sea.

2. If they start WW3, China has the option of collapsing the Suez Canal with multiple DF-5B and DF-41 strikes. The Suez Canal isn't very wide or deep. It will collapse.

Once that happens, guess who controls the global oil supplies?

 

[Tiger Genie]

in 10 years Putin is a goner. quick: how many can name any other leader or any institution of Russia other than old kgb?
(hint: CHAOS doesn't count)

Martian is living in la la land. jhungary made an excellent post explaining everything. Martian talks about annexing Mongolia annexing this and that. If it was all about military power then there would be a handful of countries left. Do you believe Russia wouldn't object to China annexing Mongolia? Do you believe Russia is happy of a rising China? If you do, you are deluded.

why not? China annexes mongolia; then Russia annexes Afghanistan; next China takes Pakistan; Russia rolls a 7 and takes over Japan; China then lands on Japan and has to pay triple rent. Russia takes that money and builds a hotel in Afghanistan. hey, anything is possible

 

[SSGcommandoPAK]

The current full members are:
China
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan

That's China and ex-Soviet states. Why do you need 10 years?

India can easily join this group but Pakistan will have problems in joining it will be difficult to choose between US or SCO . If we join SCO our relations with the US will be damaged , that means no F-16s , no spare parts and upgrades for the F-16s we have , Military aid will be banned and relations with NATO countries will also be damaged . We should remain neutral ..

in 10 years Putin is a goner. quick: how many can name any other leader or any institution of Russia other than old kgb?
(hint: CHAOS doesn't count)



why not? China annexes mongolia; then Russia annexes Afghanistan; next China takes Pakistan; Russia rolls a 7 and takes over Japan; China then lands on Japan and has to pay triple rent. Russia takes that money and builds a hotel in Afghanistan. hey, anything is possible

And what makes you think India will be spared ??? I think the Chinese will first knockout India and then think about other countries .

 

[Tiger Genie]

India can easily join this group but Pakistan will have problems in joining it will be difficult to choose between US or SCO . If we join SCO our relations with the US will be damaged , that means no F-16s , no spare parts and upgrades for the F-16s we have , Military aid will be banned and relations with NATO countries will also be damaged . We should remain neutral ..



why will China take over Pakistan , China will more likely take over India *

because Pakistan would rather be taken over by China than Russia, that's why

 

[SSGcommandoPAK]

because Pakistan would rather be taken over by China than Russia, that's why

And you guys think India will be spared ?? U guys would be the first to be Knocked out by either China or Russia cause u blab alot .

 

[Tiger Genie]

And you guys think India will be spared ?? U guys would be the first to be Knocked out by either China or Russia cause u blab alot .

India is too big for anyother country to take over. You should also educate yourself about non-aligned strategies which India perfected.

BUT if China is prepared to trade in Mongolia, Tibet, Pakistan and remove its hotels from all SCS, India may be willing to take some of its hotels off and also convince Russia to take its hotels off of Iran.

Which all leaves the all important question: Who'll be banker? It has to be India!

 

[j20blackdragon]

Here we go again

Whole purpose of Russia forcing China to give up Mongolia was, creating a buffer state between Russia and China

Despite the bon homie between Russia and China, Russians have altered their Military doctrine recently to include usage of tactical nukes against Chinese for any possible incursions into Siberia.

With China attempting to annex Mongolia, maybe the Russians will make Xinjiang and Manchuria new buffer states between Russia and China

China will not only lose Xinjiang and Manchuria but also Russia the only counter-weight to Japan in East Asia.

Give me a break. The entire PLA can drive into Mongolia anytime we want.

How will the Russian Army even reach Mongolia and maintain proper supply lines? Mind showing me a Russian expressway map? Will the Russians teleport into battle like in Star Trek?

The truth is, by the time the Russian Army slowly transports itself to Mongolia via the Trans-Siberian Railway, the PLA invasion of Mongolia will already be complete.