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http://www.forbes.com/sites/arafatk...r-gaffe-might-be-pakistans-gain/#692331f428fd
Modi's Kashmir Gaffe Might Be Pakistan's Gain
Arafat Kabir , CONTRIBUTOR
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
For the people of Kashmir who were awaiting to see Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seize the stage of India’s 70th independence day to usher in a new era for them, their leader fell short of expectations.
In fact, much to the Kashmiris’ chagrin, Modi’s comment has escalated the already-ongoing rhetorical war with Pakistan whose intransigence in bringing about a permanent solution vis-à-vis the Kashmir valley has posed the biggest security threat for New Delhi.
During his independence day speech, Modi said, “…the people of Baluchistan, Gilgit, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir have thanked me, have expressed gratitude, and expressed good wishes for me. The people who are living far away, whom I have never seen, never met—such people have expressed appreciation for prime minister of India, for [1.25 billion] countrymen. This is an honor for our countrymen.” Modi did not stop there. Without mentioning any name, he taunted Pakistan’s support for playing the terrorism card against India.
In his defense, Modi has every right to express his deep concern about human rights violations in India’s neighborhood. However, given the timing and the platform from where Modi spoke, it seems he was trying to deflect world attention from his administration’s apparent inability to tackle the Kashmir crisis to Pakistan’s maltreatment of its own citizens. Islamabad responded by saying that Modi had crossed a red line and that Indian intelligence was stirring terrorism in Baluchistan to subvert Islamabad’s grip on the restive state.
History plays a role
To be sure, the mudslinging between the two old rivals is nothing new. Neither is its pattern: more often than not Delhi points fingers at Islamabad for either aiding or turning a blind eye to groups that carry out terror acts inside India. While Pakistan puts forward similar claims, those are one dimensional.
For instance, Pakistani leadership used to routinely blame the Indians for fomenting anti-Pakistan sentiment in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). However, the reality was the Bangladeshis were never meant to be in the improbable union with Pakistan. After Bangladesh became an independent state, Pakistani leadership started to see Indian hands increasingly being played in Baluchistan, which continues until today.
It turns out the more Pakistan tries to sell the theory that “India is behind everything,” the more inured the rest of the world becomes. Why shouldn’t they be? Pakistani leaders were unnerved when the Bengalis rightfully demanded greater autonomy. In response, they blamed Indian chicanery behind it and unleashed political and economic repressions on the Bengalis, who ultimately stood up and fought a prolonged battle to achieve their independence.
Analogous to the Bengalis, the people of Baluchistan also felt abandoned as Islamabad repeatedly dithered on the question of the greater autonomy of Baluchistan. Interestingly, a little known fact is that the Baluch insurgency predates the liberation movement of Bangladesh. There has been a wave of major insurgencies in Baluchistan first in 1948, then in 1963-69 and 1973-78, and most recently in 2012. However, unlike the case of then-East Pakistan, Islamabad came to lay the blame for the chaos in Baluchistan on foreign powers—India and Afghanistan—only recently.
Modi’s gaffe, Pakistan’s gain
Although Pakistan went to great efforts to validate its claims that India and Afghanistan are stoking unrest in Baluchistan, it gained little traction. But thanks to the recent actions of Modi, the odds are now in Islamabad’s favor.
No doubt Islamabad will continue to play the same record again and again. The volume will get only louder given the fact that Afghanistan’s former Prime Minister Hamid Karzai and a Baluch leader in exile came to support Modi’s comments. Besides, Delhi’s reservation for the China-backed development projects in Baluchistan will deepen suspicions among the Pakistani leadership. After all, Islamabad is betting on this project to improve the economy of the mineral-rich state, which is ironically the country’s poorest. Pakistan anxiety is shared by its close ally China. A state-run newspaper that often advances Beijing’s position has criticized Delhi for its narrow-mindedness and asked India to abandon this zero-sum approach.
When these intertwined events are juxtaposed with the volatile situation in India-administered Kashmir, the outcome probably looks like this: One, Modi should tend to his business at hand in Kashmir avoid making provocative comments. Two, India’s new found compassion for Baluchistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir is likely to make Islamabad continue its heavy-handed treatment lest striking a compromise with the disgruntled local leaders appears to be a cave in to Indian tactics. None of these outcomes is in the best interest of India.
What now for Modi?
As the leader of the world’s largest democracy, Modi may believe he has the moral obligation to shed light on human rights violations by Pakistan. However, without a plausible solution to India’s own perennial problems that come to display on and off, Modi’s words carry little weight.
He should consider handing out an olive branch instead of shooting pallet bullets at the Kashmiris, who are as agitated as the Baluch at their federal government’s lack of will power to change the status quo and bring about sustainable peace. Until Modi does it, anything he says regarding Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Baluchistan, no matter how heartfelt it seems, will be viewed as hypocrisy. For someone who craves to leave a lasting legacy in regional and world affairs, Modi cannot afford to continue on this path.
Modi's Kashmir Gaffe Might Be Pakistan's Gain
Arafat Kabir , CONTRIBUTOR
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
For the people of Kashmir who were awaiting to see Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seize the stage of India’s 70th independence day to usher in a new era for them, their leader fell short of expectations.
In fact, much to the Kashmiris’ chagrin, Modi’s comment has escalated the already-ongoing rhetorical war with Pakistan whose intransigence in bringing about a permanent solution vis-à-vis the Kashmir valley has posed the biggest security threat for New Delhi.
During his independence day speech, Modi said, “…the people of Baluchistan, Gilgit, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir have thanked me, have expressed gratitude, and expressed good wishes for me. The people who are living far away, whom I have never seen, never met—such people have expressed appreciation for prime minister of India, for [1.25 billion] countrymen. This is an honor for our countrymen.” Modi did not stop there. Without mentioning any name, he taunted Pakistan’s support for playing the terrorism card against India.
In his defense, Modi has every right to express his deep concern about human rights violations in India’s neighborhood. However, given the timing and the platform from where Modi spoke, it seems he was trying to deflect world attention from his administration’s apparent inability to tackle the Kashmir crisis to Pakistan’s maltreatment of its own citizens. Islamabad responded by saying that Modi had crossed a red line and that Indian intelligence was stirring terrorism in Baluchistan to subvert Islamabad’s grip on the restive state.
History plays a role
To be sure, the mudslinging between the two old rivals is nothing new. Neither is its pattern: more often than not Delhi points fingers at Islamabad for either aiding or turning a blind eye to groups that carry out terror acts inside India. While Pakistan puts forward similar claims, those are one dimensional.
For instance, Pakistani leadership used to routinely blame the Indians for fomenting anti-Pakistan sentiment in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). However, the reality was the Bangladeshis were never meant to be in the improbable union with Pakistan. After Bangladesh became an independent state, Pakistani leadership started to see Indian hands increasingly being played in Baluchistan, which continues until today.
It turns out the more Pakistan tries to sell the theory that “India is behind everything,” the more inured the rest of the world becomes. Why shouldn’t they be? Pakistani leaders were unnerved when the Bengalis rightfully demanded greater autonomy. In response, they blamed Indian chicanery behind it and unleashed political and economic repressions on the Bengalis, who ultimately stood up and fought a prolonged battle to achieve their independence.
Analogous to the Bengalis, the people of Baluchistan also felt abandoned as Islamabad repeatedly dithered on the question of the greater autonomy of Baluchistan. Interestingly, a little known fact is that the Baluch insurgency predates the liberation movement of Bangladesh. There has been a wave of major insurgencies in Baluchistan first in 1948, then in 1963-69 and 1973-78, and most recently in 2012. However, unlike the case of then-East Pakistan, Islamabad came to lay the blame for the chaos in Baluchistan on foreign powers—India and Afghanistan—only recently.
Modi’s gaffe, Pakistan’s gain
Although Pakistan went to great efforts to validate its claims that India and Afghanistan are stoking unrest in Baluchistan, it gained little traction. But thanks to the recent actions of Modi, the odds are now in Islamabad’s favor.
No doubt Islamabad will continue to play the same record again and again. The volume will get only louder given the fact that Afghanistan’s former Prime Minister Hamid Karzai and a Baluch leader in exile came to support Modi’s comments. Besides, Delhi’s reservation for the China-backed development projects in Baluchistan will deepen suspicions among the Pakistani leadership. After all, Islamabad is betting on this project to improve the economy of the mineral-rich state, which is ironically the country’s poorest. Pakistan anxiety is shared by its close ally China. A state-run newspaper that often advances Beijing’s position has criticized Delhi for its narrow-mindedness and asked India to abandon this zero-sum approach.
When these intertwined events are juxtaposed with the volatile situation in India-administered Kashmir, the outcome probably looks like this: One, Modi should tend to his business at hand in Kashmir avoid making provocative comments. Two, India’s new found compassion for Baluchistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir is likely to make Islamabad continue its heavy-handed treatment lest striking a compromise with the disgruntled local leaders appears to be a cave in to Indian tactics. None of these outcomes is in the best interest of India.
What now for Modi?
As the leader of the world’s largest democracy, Modi may believe he has the moral obligation to shed light on human rights violations by Pakistan. However, without a plausible solution to India’s own perennial problems that come to display on and off, Modi’s words carry little weight.
He should consider handing out an olive branch instead of shooting pallet bullets at the Kashmiris, who are as agitated as the Baluch at their federal government’s lack of will power to change the status quo and bring about sustainable peace. Until Modi does it, anything he says regarding Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Baluchistan, no matter how heartfelt it seems, will be viewed as hypocrisy. For someone who craves to leave a lasting legacy in regional and world affairs, Modi cannot afford to continue on this path.
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