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Prime Minister-designate Narendra Modi’s move to invite SAARC leaders for his 26 May swearing in ceremony was discussed with President Pranab Mukherjee at their meeting on Tuesday and the President promptly approved of it.
This conveys quite a lotas among other SAARC heads of governments the Indian invitation was sent to Pakistan as well. This is a clever move by Modi and shows that he has not only hit the ground running in matters related to foreign policy but also that he is capable of out-of-the-box thinking.
Why? Because this is the first time ever when an Indian PM-designate has sent such invites to the leadership of India’s neighbours. Manmohan Singh never sent such invites to the neighbours for his installation ceremonies in 2004 and 2009.
That was largely because Manmohan Singh ran a coalition government both times and was tied down to coalition politics compulsions. He must not have been unaware of the domestic backlash, particularly from the Shiv Sena which does not even favour a cricket match between India and Pakistan on Indian soil.
The Shiv Sena is the largest ally of the Modi-led NDA with as many as 18 Lok Sabha seats (a gain of seven seats from the 2009 tally). This connotes only one thing. Manmohan Singh was too weak and too bogged down with domestic politics fallouts even when the Shiv Sena was not so big in numerical strength in the Lok Sabha.
But now despite the fact that the Shiv Sena has gained in numerical stature in the Lok Sabha, Modi has cared two hoots about it is simply because that he is leading a majority government where pre-poll allies like the Shiv Sena have no option but to fall in line and agree to whatever India’s new strongman determines.
This is the new political order in India to which all neighbours, including Pakistan, must reconcile. But the chances are that almost all neighbours would reconcile to this new political order in India and recalibrate their India-specific strategies accordingly but Pakistan won’t.
Perhaps even Bangladesh won’t even though it is ruled by India’s tried, tested and trusted friend Sheikh Hasina. That is because of the tough stance taken by Modi during his campaign against illegal migrants in India from Bangladesh, a statement that sent Hasina into a huddle with her inner coterie to decide her country’s future policies with a Modi-led India. But that is different matter and will be discussed later in a Bangladesh-specific write-up.
The focus of Modi’s unprecedented diplomatic outreach to SAARC is definitely Pakistan. It will be interesting to see how Pakistan responds to the invitation sent by Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh at the behest of Modi.
Will Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attend Modi’s installation on 26 May? It is hard to tell. But it appears highly unlikely given the fact that India-Pakistan bilateral relations are governed by the unwritten, unspoken code of reciprocity. Sharif had invited Indian leadership for his installation one year ago but India chose to send its High Commissioner in Pakistan, Sharat Sabharwal, to attend the event which was described by the then External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid as “a local event”.
Everything will depend on the Pakistan Army’s eventual decision on the Indian invitation. The final call on the Indian invite will be made not by Nawaj Sharif but by the other Sharif -- Pakistan’s army chief General Raheel Sharif.
General Sharif may get an idea of doing a Pervez Musharraf on India when the then Pakistani military ruler had come to India for the infamous Agra Summit in July 2001. Then also a BJP-led government was at the helms in New Delhi. If that were to happen, Modi will find himself up against core foreign policy issues on Day One of his tenure as PM.
So far only three SAARC leaders from Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Bhutan have confirmed their participation in Modi’s swearing in ceremony on 26 May. Whether Pakistan sends its Prime Minister or President to Modi’s installation or not, Modi has already played his diplomatic cards rather deftly. Whatever the Modi move may be interpreted as, it cannot be construed as extending an olive branch to Pakistan. It is just a courtesy; nothing more, nothing less.
This move alone should not be seen as Modi signaling his desire to normalise relations with Pakistan. Diplomacy does not function in such a zero sum manner. For India, the good old policy towards Pakistan has been this: you shut down your terror export business and we will talk with you. The UPA government followed this policy all through. There are no indications that Modi will depart from this policy.
But there is one difference this time. Modi has conveyed to Pakistan that he can do what was deemed unthinkable during the UPA tenure. If he can take a strong step for peace, he can take other steps in other scenarios too. And for sure, Modi won’t have to look to other parties, allies or rivals, for deciding his government’s Pakistan policy.
Read more at: Modi's invite to Sharif is no olive branch to Pakistan | Firstpost
This conveys quite a lotas among other SAARC heads of governments the Indian invitation was sent to Pakistan as well. This is a clever move by Modi and shows that he has not only hit the ground running in matters related to foreign policy but also that he is capable of out-of-the-box thinking.
Why? Because this is the first time ever when an Indian PM-designate has sent such invites to the leadership of India’s neighbours. Manmohan Singh never sent such invites to the neighbours for his installation ceremonies in 2004 and 2009.
That was largely because Manmohan Singh ran a coalition government both times and was tied down to coalition politics compulsions. He must not have been unaware of the domestic backlash, particularly from the Shiv Sena which does not even favour a cricket match between India and Pakistan on Indian soil.
The Shiv Sena is the largest ally of the Modi-led NDA with as many as 18 Lok Sabha seats (a gain of seven seats from the 2009 tally). This connotes only one thing. Manmohan Singh was too weak and too bogged down with domestic politics fallouts even when the Shiv Sena was not so big in numerical strength in the Lok Sabha.
But now despite the fact that the Shiv Sena has gained in numerical stature in the Lok Sabha, Modi has cared two hoots about it is simply because that he is leading a majority government where pre-poll allies like the Shiv Sena have no option but to fall in line and agree to whatever India’s new strongman determines.
This is the new political order in India to which all neighbours, including Pakistan, must reconcile. But the chances are that almost all neighbours would reconcile to this new political order in India and recalibrate their India-specific strategies accordingly but Pakistan won’t.
Perhaps even Bangladesh won’t even though it is ruled by India’s tried, tested and trusted friend Sheikh Hasina. That is because of the tough stance taken by Modi during his campaign against illegal migrants in India from Bangladesh, a statement that sent Hasina into a huddle with her inner coterie to decide her country’s future policies with a Modi-led India. But that is different matter and will be discussed later in a Bangladesh-specific write-up.
The focus of Modi’s unprecedented diplomatic outreach to SAARC is definitely Pakistan. It will be interesting to see how Pakistan responds to the invitation sent by Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh at the behest of Modi.
Will Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attend Modi’s installation on 26 May? It is hard to tell. But it appears highly unlikely given the fact that India-Pakistan bilateral relations are governed by the unwritten, unspoken code of reciprocity. Sharif had invited Indian leadership for his installation one year ago but India chose to send its High Commissioner in Pakistan, Sharat Sabharwal, to attend the event which was described by the then External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid as “a local event”.
Everything will depend on the Pakistan Army’s eventual decision on the Indian invitation. The final call on the Indian invite will be made not by Nawaj Sharif but by the other Sharif -- Pakistan’s army chief General Raheel Sharif.
General Sharif may get an idea of doing a Pervez Musharraf on India when the then Pakistani military ruler had come to India for the infamous Agra Summit in July 2001. Then also a BJP-led government was at the helms in New Delhi. If that were to happen, Modi will find himself up against core foreign policy issues on Day One of his tenure as PM.
So far only three SAARC leaders from Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Bhutan have confirmed their participation in Modi’s swearing in ceremony on 26 May. Whether Pakistan sends its Prime Minister or President to Modi’s installation or not, Modi has already played his diplomatic cards rather deftly. Whatever the Modi move may be interpreted as, it cannot be construed as extending an olive branch to Pakistan. It is just a courtesy; nothing more, nothing less.
This move alone should not be seen as Modi signaling his desire to normalise relations with Pakistan. Diplomacy does not function in such a zero sum manner. For India, the good old policy towards Pakistan has been this: you shut down your terror export business and we will talk with you. The UPA government followed this policy all through. There are no indications that Modi will depart from this policy.
But there is one difference this time. Modi has conveyed to Pakistan that he can do what was deemed unthinkable during the UPA tenure. If he can take a strong step for peace, he can take other steps in other scenarios too. And for sure, Modi won’t have to look to other parties, allies or rivals, for deciding his government’s Pakistan policy.
Read more at: Modi's invite to Sharif is no olive branch to Pakistan | Firstpost
