indians will probably attack. I think the more important question is why are they attacking? why is afghanistan attacking? why is iran threatening to attack?
issue is that
previous government(s) and army itself opened the door to foreign powers to kill Pakistani citizens at will. let's compare Pakistan with countries like Iran or North Korea.
- Do countries attack Iran? NO.
- Are they afraid to? YES.
- Do countries attack North Korea? NO.
- Are they afraid to? YES.
Why is it that other countries refuse to attack Iran or North Korea, whereas they have no hesitation attacking Pakistan?
Can't Pakistan deter attackers with nuclear weapons?
NO. Without ICBMs, Pakistan's nuclear weapons are
useless, when it comes to countries aside from india.
When Pakistan tested NASR tactical nuclear weapon, indians called Pakistan's nuclear bluff, Pakistan is hesitant to use nukes on indian cities. Otherwise, before NASR, indians, regardless of Cold Start, were NOT attacking Pakistan.
On the other hand, you may asking why no one attacks North Korea? Simple, they have
ICBMs.
You may be asking,
why no one attacked North Korea before it had nuclear weapons?
North Korea has shown an important concept, having
force and more importantly, having the
intent to use it. North Korea has its vast artillery facing the South Korean city of Seoul. Any wrong move and they will destroy Seoul. This strategy has kept other countries at bay from attacking North Korea. They have
force. Now, recall that North Koreans have sank a South Korean ship and would often kill/abduct South Koreans too close to the border. This shows that they have the
intent to use force.
Why does no one attack Iran?
Iran has built up a ballistic missile and cruise missile capability which they will use in case of conflict. They will saturate & overwhelm the defenses of surrounding countries, wreaking havoc in the Persian Gulf. They will probably fire a lot into Israel. Similar to the North Korean concept, "if they are going to die, they are going to take
everyone with them".
Perhaps Pakistan can adopt a similar strategy and turn its guns towards cities of
economic importance like Mumbai, Delhi, or Bangalore? Unless you can threaten the indian heartland and demonstrate the
intent to use this force, your doors remain open for attack.
Indecisiveness is a very bad quality that runs deep within the armed forces. Armed forces wasted the opportunity to sink IN aircraft carrier in previous wars. History repeated itself, armed forces wasted opportunity to sink IN submarine. Unless Pakistan shows reckless and unpredictable behavior, making it appear to be dangerous, countries will continue to attack it. Also, it wouldn't hurt to test and induct ICBMs. It needs to show force and the intent to use it.
