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MIRV : India's technological solution for Minimum Nuclear Deterrence

Indo-guy

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What is Multiple Independent Re-entry vehicles, MIRV technology, India and MIRV, Special purpose of MIRV, Agni 5 specialty, Minimum Nuclear Deterrence


With second successful test of Agni-V in a row , Scientific Advisor to Defence Minister and Director General of Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), Avinash Chander, asserted that, “The country has established ICMB capability with the successful second test”[1]. After a series of technical difficulties and considerable delays in Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP), successfully test of Agni-5 is a milestone in India’s missile development program. With Agni-5’s successful test last year India joined the elite club of ICBM capable countries.
Programme Director V. K. Saraswat discussing about technical aspects and capability of missile many times quoted about having Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRVs) capability but lacks ability in current scenario, which indeed shall be DRDO’s next vision for Agni-5 as well as its generation of missile Agni-6. Agni-VI which will have a strike range of 8,000 km to 10,000 km[2] and will be MIRV capable and is the next vision of DRDO. This article comprehensively discusses about vital importance of having this technology and the challenges and opportunities India possess to transform MIRV technology from capability to ability.
Minimum Nuclear Deterrence?
After successful nuclear test at Pokhran on May 11, 1998, India was considered as an emerging nuclear threat by many western and neighboring countries especially Pakistan and China. Defending country’s stand on issue the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee declared India’s nuclear doctrine of “minimum nuclear deterrence” in United Nation. According to this doctrine, India will posse minimum nuclear warheads which it deems necessary to defend its boundaries against any nuclear attack by any country.
Multiple-Re-entry-vehicle.png

(pic courtesy: Wikipedia)
Prominence of MIRV:
The most vital component of missile technology in recent years is the deployment of Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRVs). The fundamental characteristic of deploying MIRVs is its ability to deliver several warheads along separate trajectories, which confers it flexibility of multiple targeting. The independent targeting capability enhances missile’s ability by exhausting the missile defence, providing deep penetration and potential of destruction of larger area, effectively and precisely. The vital advantage of MIRVs in terms of nuclear capability is very high yield, which, facilitate hitting hard targets and wide area. With same amount of nuclear warhead MIRV can increase yield upto 8 times the normal yield. With minimum nuclear warhead capability we can have exponential area damage.
Why India needs MIRVs?
It was estimated that Agni-5 is capable of launching 4-5 multiple warhead, whose yield is unknown[3]. Although head of India’s DRDO, V.K. Saraswat, noted that several Agni variants could eventually be developed with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), or multiple nuclear warheads — while later conceding that it was not yet government’s policy to do so[4]. The three vital reasons why India should possess MIRV technology are, firstly the potential threat from hostile neighboring countries, secondly strengthen its futuristic nuclear triad and thirdly its minimum nuclear deterrence policy. Pakistan’s aggressive attitude and China’s fairly strong degree of skepticism toward India and its well tested MIRV technology necessitate India’s step toward this technology. Moreover with single missiles carrying more warheads, denigrate problem of minimum nuclear deterrence policy and constructing more missile, silos and launchers. Lastly MIRV technology can also strengthen India’s aspiration toward completing its nuclear triad.
Do we embrace the technology?
Technologically MIRVs could be designed to have separate guidance system and propulsion packages on each re-entry vehicle. The maneuvering final stage of missile, also called Post Boost Control System (PBCS) or ‘bus’, carries both missile re-entry bodies (RV) and guidance and control system[5]. This bus has ability to change orientation and trajectory. It is also estimated that most of the countries such as US (Titan III Trans stage and Minuteman), China (DF-31A) etc, followed the footprint of their space program by conceptualizing the technology of delivering multiple satellite payloads into orbit[6]. Although ISRO successfully launched PSLV C-7 multiple satellite on January 10, 2007 and used Dual launch Adapter (DLA) to dispense four satellites, this technology adaptation in India’s future MIRV program is unpredictable[7]. Final stage of PSLV C-7 has Trans-stage Post Boost Control System (PBCS) equivalent to US multiple launch technology. After the boost phase and orientation of bus suitably towards target, the minute rocket engines in each RV ignite[8]. These vernier rockets are used for precise positioning, changing orientation and moving bus away from free falling RVs. This critical technology was used in upper stage of ISRO Geosynchronous Launch Vehicle (GSLV) which placed 2 ton satellite into orbit by maneuvering using liquid propellant vernier rockets[9].
What is holding us back?
Deployment of such technology is complicated and expensive. The bus guidance system, mechanism of holding RVs, and releasing them with nuclear warhead accounts for half of the cost of each MIRV missile produce[10]. The warhead technology has evolved over the period and can sustain a very high yield-to-weight ratio[11]. The real challenge for India lies in miniaturizing the warhead and increasing the yield for integration onto MIRV platform. If India aspires to achieve high yield thermo nuclear warhead, then challenges are substantially greater. The thermonuclear test in 1998 might not have yielded desired result[12]; however the credibility of fabricating such high yield warhead is questionable.
In addition each re-entry has to sustain substantially high aerodynamic stress and heating, hence it is made of advance materials. Although ISRO and DRDO have robustly worked on aero-thermal structure and thermal protection system design over the past decade in its space and missile programs, but its effective use on MIRV platform is yet to be determined. Guidance and control computers must have enough memory and computational speed for guidance equation. Re-entry vehicle must have inertial component (Gyroscope and accelerometers) for precise and reliable targeting. This also becomes significant due to sudden change in mass distribution after disengaging from bus, which creates sudden oscillations and vibrations[13]. India has indigenously developed Redundant Strap down Inertial Guidance System (RESINS) which employ Dynamically Tuned Gyros (DTG) and Servo Accelerometer (SA)[14] for its space program. The entire attachment should be small and light enough to constitute in missile due to its weight and size constrain, created challenges for engineers.
Way Ahead:
The history over a decade has shown close interrelation and extents of interchangeability of technology between Indian space program and its missile program. These two programs have a profound base for India’s aspirations of futuristic technology. India’s continues strive for indigenization in its missile technology has kept a profound foundation which believed is significant to materialise its MIRV dream. The bigger challenges in current scenario are the quality of nuclear arsenal, miniaturizing warhead, atmospheric reentry and expertise in military application of guidance and control in re-entry vehicle to integrate MIRV. Although for the latter part DRDO has worked substantially and its all missile tests so far are precise and accurate, but combining this accuracy with MIRV integration is a great challenge in itself.


[1] “Nuclear-capable ‘Agni-V’ tested for second time” by Y. MALLIKARJUN available at
[2]Agni-VI to be ready by mid 2014”, Accessed on 24th October 2012
[3] “Inside story of Agni-5” NDTV 24X7, 18 Apr 2012.
[4] India must be clear about MIRV plans, South east Asia monitor, (www.southasiamonitor.org), accessed 24 October 2012
[5] Book on “Making the MIRV: study of defence making system” by greenwood/ Ballinger.
[6] Report from select committee of US national security and military with people republic of China, accessed on 23 October, 2012.
[7] After runaway success, a major technological task begins for ISROby T.S. Subramanian in Hindu , accessed on 24 October 2012
[8] “Orgin of MIRVs SIPRI research report, no.9/ August 1973.
[9] “Space Transportation” Indian space and research organization, ISRO (www.isro.org/pdf/STSBrochureFinal.pdf), accessed on 24 October 2012
[10] The Military Balance 1972-73 (IISS, 1971), pg.65
[11] Note: EMT (Equivalent megaton)= Y2/3 where Y is in megatons. 1 bomb with a yield of 1 megaton would destroy 80 square miles. While 8 bombs, each with a yield of 125 kilotons, would destroy 160 square miles i.e higher the yield destruction level increase exponentially.
[12] Perkovich (note 8), from Kartik Bommakanti paper on MIRV and Satellite integration, Indo-US space corporation, IDSA.
[13] Ibid.
[14] Ibid. (to 13
 
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A good nuclear deterrent and a will to go to any extent in using these weapons will keep the enemies in check from occupying India's territories :cheers:
 
Interesting excerpt from same blog

Отечественная военная техника (после 1945 г.) • Просмотр темы - Индийские баллистические ракеты

Manoeuvring Re-Entry Vehicle: Agni RV-Mk.3
Agni-III RV supports a wide range of weapons, with total payload mass ranging from 600 kg to 3,490 kg including decoys and other ABM countermeasures. The missile range is a function of payload (see Range-Payload graph below).
first RV that is designed & optimized for the new lighter 200Kt thermonuclear payload weapon and corresponding long range[108]. The 200Kt yield weapon reportedly weighs less than 450 Kg, however other sources indicate a mass of between 300 to 200 Kg[109]. The first official confirmation on Agni-III payload types and weight came on 13-April-07 from Union Minister of State for Defence MM Pallam Raju who said "the strategic payload of the missile is between 100 kg to 250 kg". One can conservatively deduce that the 250 kg mentioned by the minister corresponded to Indian Thermo-nuclear weapon.
Agni-III with single new warhead requires a bigger RV body that can adapt with the large diameter motor. Compared to Agni-II this RV is shorter, more voluminous and 3.6 meter long. The large base diameter makes it unviable for high speed reentry, thus this could be a payload adapter section that jettisons the real RV located in the front part. The high ‘β’(Ballistic coefficient[110]) RV in combination with an all carbon composite body enables higher re-entry speed even with a light weight payload. The sharp high ‘β’ RV-Mk.3 design employs distinctly smaller 17 cm diameter blunt nose about 1.7 meter long and half angle of 10°. The high ‘β’ RV in combination with an all carbon composite body enables higher re-entry speed even with a light weight payload[111]. Like the RV Mk-2 it is also carries velocity correction package. It is perhaps world’s first all composite RV without metal backup[112]. The all carbon composite re-entry heat shields with multi-directional ablative carbon-carbon re-entry nose tip[113] make it very light and tough. The new lightweight composite case can withstand temperatures of up to 5,000º C[114]thus its conic half angle choice is more aggressive, yet capable of all possible re-entry velocities. This very light RV mass uniquely enables large increase in missile’s range. The new RV has been flight tested on another platform before its use on Agni-III[115].
DRDO is reportedly working on MIRV[115A] for other large diameter Agni configurations.
It is useful to note that Agni's advanced blunt nose high beta RV design using carbon-carbon nose tip and separating shockwave and is only now being incorporated in US ICBM replacing their mainstay RVs that hitherto used high beta RV using heat-sink concept with small graphite nose tip and ablative cover sheath. Strangely it also looks very similar to Indian RV design fielded on Agni missiles.


see the image http://militaryrussia.ru/forum/down...id=e0c35190bf00a8bab82a6977f6360f8b&mode=view
 
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Yes India has the capability and technology to build MIRV's we have placed multiple satellites with single launch vehicle in the past, only thing needs is some refinement :cheers:

Indeed here is an excerpt from Mr Saraswat's interview to NDTV shortly before he retired , where he talked about MIRV in quite bit of detail

“Saraswat: Agni Series of missiles are in an advanced stage of production. Today, as you remember, we have completed development of Agni I, Agni II, and Agni III. Agni IV and Agni V are in an advanced stage of development. And this year, you will see two more launches of Agni V, which will culminate its complete developmental activity and it will be led to production. Agni IV is already getting into production mode. So with this – Agni I, Agni II, Agni III, Agni IV, Agni V – getting into production mode, the next logical corollary as far as the long-range ballistic missile deterrents capability of this country is concerned, we will switch over to force multiplication. Force multiplication in the case of ballistic missiles will be by way of multiple independently manouevreable [sic] re-entry vehicles (MIRV).

NDTV: Meaning one missile which can carry many warheads?

Saraswat: Carry multiple warheads. Our design activity on the development and production of MIRV is at an advanced stage today. We are designing the MIRVs, we are integrating it with Agni IV and Agni V missiles, and that would also give us the capability to cover a vast area plus deliver in the event any activity requires a number of payloads at a required place.

NDTV: So will the next test be with a multiple warheads system or…

Saraswat: No. The present task, as I was mentioning, will be only with the normal configuration of Agni V. But there will be an experimental test in which we will be testing the MIRV capability.

NDTV: So that would be what? Agni VI or…

Saraswat: No we are not naming it Agni VI… it will be Agni V missile with MIRVs.

NDTV: So Agni V plus?

Saraswat: You can name is Agni V plus or Agni VI, but certainly it is not Agni VI.

NDTV: It is not Agni VI but Agni V will have multiple warheads so we can have a single missile going and hitting several targets at the same time?

Saraswat: Yes it will be in that category.”

But only three months earlier, Saraswat was quoted by numerous newspapers as explicitly crediting the Agni VI, not the Agni V, with multiple warhead capability: “Agni-V is a major strategic defence weapon.

Now, we want to make Agni-VI, which will be a force multiplier.” The new Agni variant “will have force multiplier capability by the MIRV approach which would enable us to deliver many payloads at the same time using only one missile. Work is on in this area and designs have been completed. We are now in the hardware realisation phase,”
 
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