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Significance of Dabiq’s Title
The title of the Dabiq magazine series has symbolic meaning. Dabiq is a small town in northern Aleppo, Syria, where, according to a well-known hadith about Armageddon, Muslims and “Rome” (generally interpreted to mean the West) will clash.5
The location also has parallel historical significance as the site of a decisive battle in 1516 between the Ottomans and the Mamluks, which led to Ottoman victory and the consolidation of the last recognized Islamic Caliphate.6 To reiterate the location’s importance, both the first and second editions of the magazine’s table of contents are preceded by a quote from al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, saying that “The spark has been lit here in Iraq, and its heart will continue to intensify — by Allah’s permission — until it burns the crusader armies in Dabiq.” This prominent quotation of ISIS’s founder was likely chosen to emphasize ISIS’s independence from other jihadist groups, particularly al-Qaeda (AQ).
As will be explained here, ISIS’s current effort to establish legitimacy could be challenged by al-Qaeda’s core leadership and from al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN). Quoting Zarqawi, rather than Osama bin Laden or another AQ leader, underscores ISIS’s desire to frame itself as an independent organization religiously superior to AQ or JN. The battle in Dabiq, Syria that the magazine’s title recalls is another manifestation of ISIS’s ideological synergy with al- Qaeda. But ISIS and al-Qaeda may have divergent grand strategies. While AQ’s grand strategy does include an eventual, apocalyptic clash between Islamic forces and Westerners, the organization currently believes itself to be at an earlier phase in its plan. Rather than all-out battle with infidels, AQ’s current strategic stage involves executing spectacular terrorist attacks on the West.7
Mary Habeck, a scholar focusing on al- Qaeda, explains that AQ’s grand strategy begins with a period of ideological recruitment and warfare preparation. After these initial steps come attacks on Western forces and “apostate rulers” within Muslim countries. Eventually Shari’a law will be introduced, an act that would force central governments to engage in a “protracted guerilla war” with jihadists, as is currently seen in places like Yemen, Somalia, and the Sinai. After some time, al-Qaeda would set up institutions across broad swaths of land, replacing existing governments and unifying its member groups. The Caliphate would be established, a step that would lead to an “all out war with the unbelievers until the end of time.” While AQ’s final stage matches the imagery of Dabiq, the organization sees itself as many steps away from reaching that point. Dabiq exposes how ISIS rejects AQ’s strategic sequencing, and has followed a different set of steps to establish its Caliphate. It is still unclear how al-Qaeda will respond to ISIS’s Caliphate declaration and assertions of superiority. As long as ISIS’s military victories continue, it is difficult for AQ to persuasively argue against the group’s methods.
Naming a main propaganda effort after a forecasted battle in Dabiq, Syria implies that ISIS wants to be seen as the jihadist group that will lead the Muslim community into worldwide domination. A literal interpretation of the Dabiq battle history would see ISIS wait for the West to initiate combat, giving ISIS time to build capacity and grow until the West cannot tolerate ISIS’s existence. A future battle in Dabiq is referenced multiple times in the periodical, indicating that it may actually become a rallying cry for the new Caliphate. ISIS seized the actual town of Dabiq in early August 2014, reportedly spurring its fighters on by telling them they were part of a “triumphant religious battle.”8 The apocalyptic narrative that occurs in these texts is not unique to ISIS, but compared to AQ the Islamic State speaks of these battles as though they are imminent and is setting the conditions to fight them. The apocalyptic nature of the vision that ISIS lays out in Dabiq is also apparent in the second issue of the magazine, titled “The Flood.” It references the story of Noah and the Ark, arguing that the new caliphate is the “ark” and that everyone who does not join will be wiped out in the “flood.” Importantly, the Dabiq motif does not answer how ISIS will operate in the medium term. ISIS could attempt continuous expansion and recruitment until a final clash with “Rome,” or it could simply carve out a de facto state and gain strength until the West attacks. Both routes would fit into a plan ending in a decisive battle. Future study of ISIS’s messaging and military activities should look to determine whether there is a point at which ISIS would halt expansion, perhaps because of military overmatch, and instead focus on consolidation.
http://www.understandingwar.org/dabiq-strategic-messaging-islamic-state-0
The title of the Dabiq magazine series has symbolic meaning. Dabiq is a small town in northern Aleppo, Syria, where, according to a well-known hadith about Armageddon, Muslims and “Rome” (generally interpreted to mean the West) will clash.5
The location also has parallel historical significance as the site of a decisive battle in 1516 between the Ottomans and the Mamluks, which led to Ottoman victory and the consolidation of the last recognized Islamic Caliphate.6 To reiterate the location’s importance, both the first and second editions of the magazine’s table of contents are preceded by a quote from al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, saying that “The spark has been lit here in Iraq, and its heart will continue to intensify — by Allah’s permission — until it burns the crusader armies in Dabiq.” This prominent quotation of ISIS’s founder was likely chosen to emphasize ISIS’s independence from other jihadist groups, particularly al-Qaeda (AQ).
As will be explained here, ISIS’s current effort to establish legitimacy could be challenged by al-Qaeda’s core leadership and from al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN). Quoting Zarqawi, rather than Osama bin Laden or another AQ leader, underscores ISIS’s desire to frame itself as an independent organization religiously superior to AQ or JN. The battle in Dabiq, Syria that the magazine’s title recalls is another manifestation of ISIS’s ideological synergy with al- Qaeda. But ISIS and al-Qaeda may have divergent grand strategies. While AQ’s grand strategy does include an eventual, apocalyptic clash between Islamic forces and Westerners, the organization currently believes itself to be at an earlier phase in its plan. Rather than all-out battle with infidels, AQ’s current strategic stage involves executing spectacular terrorist attacks on the West.7
Mary Habeck, a scholar focusing on al- Qaeda, explains that AQ’s grand strategy begins with a period of ideological recruitment and warfare preparation. After these initial steps come attacks on Western forces and “apostate rulers” within Muslim countries. Eventually Shari’a law will be introduced, an act that would force central governments to engage in a “protracted guerilla war” with jihadists, as is currently seen in places like Yemen, Somalia, and the Sinai. After some time, al-Qaeda would set up institutions across broad swaths of land, replacing existing governments and unifying its member groups. The Caliphate would be established, a step that would lead to an “all out war with the unbelievers until the end of time.” While AQ’s final stage matches the imagery of Dabiq, the organization sees itself as many steps away from reaching that point. Dabiq exposes how ISIS rejects AQ’s strategic sequencing, and has followed a different set of steps to establish its Caliphate. It is still unclear how al-Qaeda will respond to ISIS’s Caliphate declaration and assertions of superiority. As long as ISIS’s military victories continue, it is difficult for AQ to persuasively argue against the group’s methods.
Naming a main propaganda effort after a forecasted battle in Dabiq, Syria implies that ISIS wants to be seen as the jihadist group that will lead the Muslim community into worldwide domination. A literal interpretation of the Dabiq battle history would see ISIS wait for the West to initiate combat, giving ISIS time to build capacity and grow until the West cannot tolerate ISIS’s existence. A future battle in Dabiq is referenced multiple times in the periodical, indicating that it may actually become a rallying cry for the new Caliphate. ISIS seized the actual town of Dabiq in early August 2014, reportedly spurring its fighters on by telling them they were part of a “triumphant religious battle.”8 The apocalyptic narrative that occurs in these texts is not unique to ISIS, but compared to AQ the Islamic State speaks of these battles as though they are imminent and is setting the conditions to fight them. The apocalyptic nature of the vision that ISIS lays out in Dabiq is also apparent in the second issue of the magazine, titled “The Flood.” It references the story of Noah and the Ark, arguing that the new caliphate is the “ark” and that everyone who does not join will be wiped out in the “flood.” Importantly, the Dabiq motif does not answer how ISIS will operate in the medium term. ISIS could attempt continuous expansion and recruitment until a final clash with “Rome,” or it could simply carve out a de facto state and gain strength until the West attacks. Both routes would fit into a plan ending in a decisive battle. Future study of ISIS’s messaging and military activities should look to determine whether there is a point at which ISIS would halt expansion, perhaps because of military overmatch, and instead focus on consolidation.
http://www.understandingwar.org/dabiq-strategic-messaging-islamic-state-0
