Mashallah Pakistan credit rates increased. A welcomed change

[maithil]

In future, policymakers should start discussing: " should Pakistan default" ? If a short term bitter pill of default can lead to massive debt restructuring and this crisis leads to stopping subsidies to ultra rich, this option should be explored..

 

[sparten]

Pakistan's Central Bank (Reserve Bank) is not independent, right? So, the government can ask them to create as much money as they want? With Pakistan's current inflation rate, that is not going to be a pretty sight.

It is Independent. But State Bank is not going to let the Government default on local debt. Of course it can issue bonds to cover some of the printed money.

 

[lightning F57]

If NS really did care for Pak he would call early elections to remove instability which is having adverse effects on Pak economy. His been saying only a few hundred or thousand people been turning up to the rallies, he has the establishment on his side, the chief election commission, all parties baring PTI. Why then is he not going for early elections?

We all and his supporters know why.

 

[hunter_hunted]

پی ڈی ایف کے سب سے بڑے حرامخوروں میں اریش کا نام سب سے اوپر ہے

Hahaha answer @Areesh question or get lost patwari tooi

 

[Hareeb]

It is Independent. But State Bank is not going to let the Government default on local debt. Of course it can issue bonds to cover some of the printed money.

And raise inflation which is already hitting near its historical highs?
SBP just raised PKR 757bn this week at interest rates of 15.5%+ through auction. Secondly, the major portion consists of short term debt. PKR 2.85t to be raised further in this fiscal year.

 

[Hareeb]

I think most of the debt is institutional (IMF, Paris club, ADB etc..) or Bilateral (like China), they won't benefit. I think there is very little private debt (i.e., investors) due to Pakistan being not investment grade for more than 20 years.

And what if they don't rollover?
IMF asking for additional taxes of 800bn for 9th review, which is not possible in this poor economic situation.
Without IMF, China and other financial institutions are not going to help. UAE asking for assets in return.
Pakistan needs $32bn to repay debt in this FY with $18bn from IMF and $14bn from other sources. If IMF programme deosn't hold or debt doesn't get rollover, Pakistan is going to default.
$3bn paid last quater with $1bn to pay on sukuks next month and SBP reserves stand at just $7.96bn.

 

[epebble]

And what if they don't rollover?
IMF asking for additional taxes of 800bn for 9th review, which is not possible in this poor economic situation.
Without IMF, China and other financial institutions are not going to help. UAE asking for assets in return.
Pakistan needs $32bn to repay debt in this FY with $18bn from IMF and $14bn from other sources. If IMF programme deosn't hold or debt doesn't get rollover, Pakistan is going to default.
$3bn paid last quater with $1bn to pay on sukuks next month and SBP reserves stand at just $7.96bn.

Pakistan will not default, will make bond payments on time: Dar​

Pakistan will not default, will make bond payments on time: Dar

Requests people to avoid spreading rumours or "irresponsible statements" regarding the economy.

www.dawn.com

 

[Genghis khan1]

If Pakistan go default, what would be the effect on currency.

 

[Imran Khan]

If Pakistan go default, what would be the effect on currency.

its very simple sir

 

[Genghis khan1]

its very simple sir

View attachment 898635

Excepted but how bad are we looking at? Dollar at Rs 400 Rs 600?

Also what would be the effects on real estate market?

 

[Enigma SIG]

Excepted but how bad are we looking at? Dollar at Rs 400 Rs 600?

Also what would be the effects on real estate market?

5000 at least.

Real estate will be hit hard as well because of the falloff in demand.

Eventually PKR will have to be ditched and we will be using either USD or RMB

 

[Genghis khan1]

5000 at least.

Real estate will be hit hard as well because of the falloff in demand.

Eventually PKR will have to be ditched and we will be using either USD or RMB

As of 19 September, WalletInvestor’s USD/PKR forecast for 2022 showed the pair trading at 230.441 by the end of the year and 244.448 by the end of 2023. The site’s USD/PKR forecast for 2025 showed the pair trading at a new high of 272.601 by the end of the year.

Gov.Capital’s USD/PKR forecast for 2022 showed the pair trading at 226.571 by the end of the year and 733.776 by the end of 2025, subsequently crossing the 900 mark in September 2026.

If second scenario turned out to be true then People are fucked.

 

[Imran Khan]

Excepted but how bad are we looking at? Dollar at Rs 400 Rs 600?

Also what would be the effects on real estate market?

if go default then it will be 350 to 400 sir

today 1usd to SL rupee is 367

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Imran Khan

today 1usd to SL rupee is 367

SL's situation is far worse and far more unsalvageable than Pak's. SL creditors will have to take a hefty haircut on the debt, there will be little on Pak. If SL can maintain its rupee at 367, Pak can do far better even in the worst case of default.

Regards

 

[Olympus81]

Pakistan won’t default as yet.

If any loan is due, Pakistan will fall back on the Saudis or the Chinese. But that’s a big if. Will these countries keep taking Pakistan out of the hole when they see the sinking ship is unsalvageable.

Dar and his thieves don't inspire much confidence.

Suspect the creditors would ask something more this time. Shares in profitable LSEs at throwaway prices.

My guess is, if this continues 3-4 months, there is a good chance of a default.