March for Democracy Watch Thread

[kalu_miah]

I have read from your writing that the pivot to asia is halting the US to intervene in Bangladesh against India. But from the recent reports it is showing that the Indians are carrying out their own agenda and the US understands it...could you please explain more @kalu_miah

Well, I am not so sure. I think both Japan and US are hoping to leverage India's size to balance the "peaceful" rise of China. Indian's always pursued their own agenda like any other country. Like every other country and power, they are in this game for what is in it for them.

The disagreement between the US and India on Bangladesh is a matter of tactical strategy, but not the end goal (keeping Islamic extremism in check). USA do not agree with current Indian strategy, they think it will backfire, that is why they advised against it, and I think they are correct. I agree with the US assessment that India's strategy in Bangladesh is shortsighted and I predict this blunder may permanently affect this region's future.

 

[Saiful Islam]

I am sure what ur saying is true, situation seems far worse than what media is reporting..... ― Henrik Ibsen once said
“You should never wear your best trousers when you go out to fight for freedom and truth.”

We have boys in my area of BD being shaheed at the age of 16-17. Although not all the police forces have live ammunition the attacks are animal like and sometimes the rubber bullets are fired from close proximity.

 

[scholseys]

Summary/Opinion: India is cozying up to Beijing and distancing herself from the US
“On the contrary, the rise of China demands Delhi intensify its cooperation with Beijing and prudently manage the multiple differences. What is baffling, however, is the UPA's perverse policy of limiting India's cooperation with other countries by citing Beijing's sensitivities. Defence Minister A.K. Antony, for example, has stopped the Indian navy conducting multilateral exercises in the Indian Ocean, slowed down military cooperation with the US and limited India's defence diplomacy with China's neighbours in the name of "strategic autonomy".”
It seems China’s Grand Strategy is to keep the US out using the Banglaedesh-China-India-Myanmar corridor. If AL is elected as the next government in Bangladesh, the country will be pushed towards India. A free market-driven regional integration – is very much in the U.S. interest. It appears that India does not want an American presence in the region, nor does China. Russia is in the China and India camp.

“The BCIM reflects China’s rising maritime power, which is encountering its U.S. counterpart along the sea lines that connect China to energy resources in the Middle East and Africa. In the West, critics see the BCIM as a “string of pearls” that could one-day fuel China’s bid for regional primacy. In the East, the BCIM nations see regional integration as potential insurance for stability and prosperity. (economomonitor)”

@kalu_miah

Strategic Autonomy - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

 

[idune]

I would not be so sure, specially looking at Japan's renewed interest with India.

Japan is looking for any straw to hold on to because they can not fully rely on US assurance. US also has significant interest in China and do not want to go out of control. Japanese will soon learn cosmetic nature of indian lip service just like US learned.

Heck US even got contract worth more than $150 billion to supply aircraft to Dubai, Qatar and other Gulf states. India does not have big money to spare and has little influence even in its own neighborhood. Except for Bangladesh (at the moment) all other countries in South Asia resent Indian hegemony. A country that does not have much to offer economically (other than future bubble) and all neighbors are against it, no one with strategic calculation will look into india seriously. Unless and until situation changes.

 

[scholseys]

Pranab Mukherjee's presidential promise was to develop the Northeast, for this India needs Bangladesh and India's look east policy depends on Bangladesh. They will not let Bangladesh go at any cost. I think India will stick with Awami League until the BCIM corridor deal is finalized the way she wants it. The BCIM corridor is her interest.

 

[idune]

Summary/Opinion: India is cozying up to Beijing and distancing herself from the US

Strategic Autonomy - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Seriously, Beijing will keep Delhi at arms length, only to reap economic benefit - like getting more export money ($30 billion surplus in China's favor and counting). Beside, indian build up in NE, South China sea venture against China, cozying up with Japan, all these work against India getting close to China. Besides, india is heavily dependent on US for its IT and other export.

In reality india pretend to switch gear but its interest and alignment are fraught and fragmented. And US is way too old of a player to know these realities.

 

[kalu_miah]

US does not seem pleased with India and China pushing for the BCIM 'corridor'.

Nannygate: Tip of the iceberg?

"Now India is moving ahead with China on implementing the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) "economic corridor" around the friendship road connecting the four nations. The last BCIM meeting in Kunming agreed on 'joint research' to find ways to establish the dream 'economic corridor'.

Sino-Indian bonhomie

The US has not formally reacted to the Sino-Indian bonhomie, but many in its establishment feel the Indian engagement with China is diluting its 'Asian rebalancing', which aims to contain the Dragon through a network of security and economic alliance involving China's rimland nations like India, Japan, Vietnam, Australia and the ASEAN.

"You guys are letting the Chinese off the hook when all other neighbours are reacting sharply to their aggressive intentions" was how a senior US academic known for close relations to the State Department described the feelings in Washington."

India knows well that its North East is under threat from China, so I believe its an attempt to reduce that threat they are facing from China. India's behavior in Bangladesh is an indication of that Indian nervousness on this issue.

The Chinese will go along with India on the surface, but I do not think they will give up on their goal to undermine Indian interest, if it advances Chinese interest in the region. USA is after all an outsider here, neighbors with common borders, both of whom have billion plus populations and are trying to curve out their own sphere of interest, will eventually clash, no one can prevent it, regardless of machinations of Chanokyan Babudoms of South Block.

So here also the US is more correct in its long term assessment and Indian Babudom gets an F, in my opinion. Delusion is the name of the game, when it comes to India.

 

[scholseys]

India knows well that its North East is under threat from China, so I believe its an attempt to reduce that threat they are facing from China. India's behavior in Bangladesh is an indication of that Indian nervousness on this issue.

The Chinese will go along with India on the surface, but I do not think they will give up on their goal to undermine Indian interest, if it advances Chinese interest in the region. USA is after all an outsider here, neighbors with common borders, both of whom have billion plus populations and are trying to curve out their own sphere of interest, will eventually clash, no one can prevent it, regardless of machinations of Chanokyan Babudoms of South Block.

So here also the US is more correct in its long term assessment and Indian Babudom gets an F, in my opinion. Delusion is the name of the game, when it comes to India.

I highly doubt the US will let Bangladesh slip into the hands of India completely, already this haseena government is bashing India and EU. Every state department interview or think tank conference I have attended these americans mentions Bangladesh as of 'great strategic value'.

 

[kalu_miah]

Pranab Mukherjee's presidential promise was to develop the Northeast, for this India needs Bangladesh and India's look east policy depends on Bangladesh. They will not let Bangladesh go at any cost. I think India will stick with Awami League until the BCIM corridor deal is finalized the way she wants it. The BCIM corridor is her interest.

I have always supported the BCIM corridor, I think its a trap for India and it will open up a way for China to roll in their armored forces.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

I am just confused

I give up just gona sit back and watch what happens

 

[scholseys]

I have always supported the BCIM corridor, I think its a trap for India and it will open up a way for China to roll in their armored forces.

I have read a state department release from John Kerry a few months ago, where he states the future energy market of the world is to become 6 trillion from the 2 trillion and the 60% of the world's energy resources is located in or near Indian ocean. BCIM corridor is nothing but getting pipelines and China already has one from Myanmar.

ever wonder why Awami League wants to stay in power until 2021? it is India's objective to do so...........the rest you can fill in the dots.

ONGC Videsh Ltd acquires two oil blocks in Bangladesh - Economic Times

right before the election dates are announced Haseena government gives 2 oil blocks to India without any discussions or tender, I bet India gets the oil/gas far below international rates.....

 

[kalu_miah]

I have read a state department release from John Kerry a few months ago, where he states the future energy market of the world is to become 6 trillion from the 2 trillion and the 60% of the world's energy resources is located in or near Indian ocean. BCIM corridor is nothing but getting pipelines and China already has one from Myanmar.

ever wonder why Awami League wants to stay in power until 2021? it is India's objective to do so...........the rest you can fill in the dots.

ONGC Videsh Ltd acquires two oil blocks in Bangladesh - Economic Times

right before the election dates are announced Haseena government gives 2 oil blocks to India without any discussions or tender, I bet India gets the oil/gas far below international rates.....

BY 2021 they hope to completely crush any semblance of opposition party such as BNP and Jamat and increase the prevalence of the League imbued with 1971 Muktijuddho chetona (in reality the chetona of Indian slavery) in every sphere or walk of life from Students up to intellectual and cultural icons (sushil somaj) as well as Army officers.

Soviet Union also tried it in Afghanistan, a much more powerful country operating in a much smaller country. Instead of achieving their goals, they got into a quagmire and got broken up themselves. Lets see what future has in store for us. Hopefully we will not become the next Afghanistan. I sure hope not, but that is what Indians are pushing for it seems, not knowing that it will bring as much disaster for them, as it will be for us.

 

[scholseys]

BY 2021 they hope to completely crush any semblance of opposition party such as BNP and Jamat and increase the prevalence of the League imbued with 1971 Muktijuddho chetona (in reality the chetona of Indian slavery) in every sphere or walk of life from Students up to intellectual and cultural icons (sushil somaj) as well as Army officers.

Soviet Union also tried it in Afghanistan, a much more powerful country operating in a much smaller country. Instead of achieving their goals, they got into a quagmire and got broken up themselves. Lets see what future has in store for us. Hopefully we will not become the next Afghanistan. I sure hope not, but that is what Indians are pushing for it seems, not knowing that it will bring as much disaster for them, as it will be for us.

India has successfully polarized the nation to an extreme, India does not have to get involved. If awami league carries on like this they will crush both BNP and JeI. BNP lacks any credible street power and JeI has lost a lot of steam. The army, BGB, police and RAB are fully backing this regime. America has no leverage on awami league, absolutely nothing. All the west can do is withdraw the GSP facility which will destroy our RMG and textile sector. From the past experiences sanctions have often made regimes more autocratic and in this it will further push awami league into India's lap. I believe the sanctions will make awami league accept the India rupee as our reserve currency. Already this is being discussed.

 

[kalu_miah]

India has successfully polarized the nation to an extreme, India does not have to get involved. If awami league carries on like this they will crush both BNP and JeI. BNP lacks any credible street power and JeI has lost a lot of steam. The army, BGB, police and RAB are fully backing this regime. America has no leverage on awami league, absolutely nothing. All the west can do is withdraw the GSP facility which will destroy our RMG and textile sector. From the past experiences sanctions have often made regimes more autocratic and in this it will further push awami league into India's lap. I believe the sanctions will make awami league accept the India rupee as our reserve currency. Already this is being discussed.

I never got into video games much, but if this was a world of warcraft video game I would make these next moves:

1. move Khaleda Zia, BNP-Jel opposition top leadership out to Kunming
2. secure a nuclear blanket for Bangladesh from China
3. Make a deal with Burmans of Myanmar to accept Rohingya's if they help Bangladesh with this war
4. US and EU sanction to Awami League govt. to halt all RMG exports
5. return back all Mideast expats to Bangladesh (because of anti-Islam govt.), but after a brief one year sojourn in Syria
6. Set ablaze the whole region between China and Myanmar and "mainland India"

Bhashani said we got 1/2 independence in 1971, so this will be the remainder which we forgot to fight to eliminate traitors that live among us. India desperately wanted to prove that Bangladeshi's are extremists, it will be poetic justice for them. One must be careful what they wish for. And next time around, Bangladeshi's will be careful not to tolerate foreign agents and traitors among us.

 

[scholseys]

I never got into video games much, but if this was a world of warcraft video game I would make these next moves:

1. move Khaleda Zia, BNP-Jel opposition top leadership out to Kunming
2. secure a nuclear blanket for Bangladesh from China
3. Make a deal with Burmans of Myanmar to accept Rohingya's if they help Bangladesh with this war
4. US and EU sanction to Awami League govt. to halt all RMG exports
5. return back all Mideast expats to Bangladesh (because of anti-Islam govt.), but after a brief one year sojourn in Syria
6. Set ablaze the whole region between China and Myanmar and "mainland India"

Bhashani said we got 1/2 independence in 1971, so this will be the remainder which we forgot to fight to eliminate traitors that live among us. India desperately wanted to prove that Bangladeshi's are extremists, it will be poetic justice for them. One must be careful what they wish for. And next time around, Bangladeshi's will be careful not to tolerate foreign agents and traitors among us.

BNP needs to come to power to secure a nuclear blanket.