Maldives : Why is our Foreign Policy so spineless?

[The Great One]

Maldives : Why is our Foreign Policy so spineless? - Scoop News Jammu Kashmir

Dr. Ved Pratap Vaidik




The arrest of former President of Maldives Mohamed Nasheed has heated up the politics of Maldives. Nasheed is also a leader of the opposition party of his country, Maldivan Democratic Party. He has been arrested by the President of the present government, Abdul Yameen on account of the fact that following President Nasheed’s orders a senior magistrate was arrested in 2012 which had led to wild protests in the country. The arrest of Nasheed has been done under the anti-terrorist act. It is quite absurd. Nasheed and his spokesperson had appealed to the Government of India for intervention and stall his arrest. Even if he is arrested he should be kept in Bangalore and not in Maldives so that his life is not at risk.



What security can Indian government give to Nasheed? It is so spineless that Indian government did not meet the delegation which had come to India from Maldives on behalf of Nasheed. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not have the guts enough even listen to the plea of the delegation. It is scared that the Government of Maldives would get upset over the issue. India and Maldives! Is there any comparison? Shall I tell our Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, what had happened in 1988? It was Rajiv Gandhi’s government at that time. Some obstinate people of Singapore had almost toppled the then President of Maldives, Maumoon Abdul Gayyum. I, then was editor of PTI ‘Bhasha’. As soon as I got this news on the teleprinter of PTI, I rang up the Defence Minister Krishna Chandra Pant. He was in China at that time. He returned immediately. I spoke to American ambassador in Sri Lanka Dr. James Spain. He became my friend when I was doing Ph.D at Columbia University in Newyork. He said whatever you deem as correct, please do that, my government has no objection to it. We sent the army and President Gayyum was saved. The Present President is the brother of this then President Gayyum only. How are they talking about “intervention” of India?




India must get rid of its vagueness in its foreign policy. When Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj went to Maldives in 2014, she did not meet the leaders of the opposition. Does she not know that India’s relations with Maldives grew strongest during the Presidential tenure of Nasheed. Nasheed was getting constructed Maley airport by an Indian company. Yameen’s government scrapped that deal and gave the contract to China. It is surprising that our Foreign Minister’s visit to Maldives with the aim to check met China hesitated in meeting with leaders friendly to India. Dreaming of becoming the super power of South Asia, India has never conducted such submissive foreign policy in its history ever before. I trust that an able Foreign Secretary like Jaishankar would initiate some strong step. The politics of Maldives is taking a new turn. The Jamhoori Party has formed a coalition with Nasheed leaving behind the ruling party. People’s campaign is catching momentum. In such a moment if India lags behind in taking any decision then it would be left with no other option put repentance.




(The author is a well-known Scholar, Political Analyst, Orator and a Columnist on national and international affairs. Dr. Vaidik worked with Press Trust of India for a decade as the Founder-Editor of its Hindi News Agency “BHASHA”, Chairman,
Council For Indian Foreign Policy.Feedback :dr.vaidik@gmail.com)

 

[The Great One]

Nasheed: Singed By Dragon Dreams

Beijing’s second protest about Narendra Modi’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh must be seen in the context of Chinese strategy in South Asia. That includes setting up military bases in the Indian Ocean and wooing Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Mauritius and the Maldives. The crisis involving the former Maldivian president and current Opposition Maldivian Democratic Party leader, Mohammed Nasheed, is obviously a detail of this overall thrust.

Nasheed, who has been arrested and will stand trial for his 2012 decision to use the military to arrest the chief judge of the Criminal Court, Abdulla Mohamed, first exposed Chinese activities in the Maldives. In 2008, he became the Indian Ocean archipelago’s first democratically elected president, and was demonstrably a friend of India’s. But in 2013, he lost to Abdulla Yameen, half-brother of Maumoon Abdul Gayyoom, who had ruled the Maldives with an iron hand for nearly 30 years before Nasheed. The latter’s real troubles began after Yameen sacked a key ally, Mohammed Nazim, who had held the defence portfolio and was also an old India friend. Nazim defected to the MDP and launched a series of protests that threatened to bring the government down.

Now, the Yameen administration calls the two opposition politicians terrorists and accuses them of plotting a coup. Before he was jailed, Nasheed publicly appealed to India to “protect” him. Before the 2013 presidential election, he fled to the Indian High Commission in Male, and only New Delhi’s high-level intervention persuaded him to leave the premises. It’s difficult not to link these developments with Nasheed’s revelation only a few days before Barack Obama’s visit to New Delhi for the Republic Day celebrations that the Yameen administration would lease Laamu Atoll to China for 99 years and a $2 billion fee. He said the Chinese would set up a military base there.

Beijing’s vehement denials are cleverly worded. The statement that “It is common knowledge that China pursues a national defence policy that is defensive in nature” and that “China does not maintain any military in any foreign country” doesn’t rule out an unmanned surveillance station that can be called defensive. Any Chinese foothold so close to India must cause concern in New Delhi. So must the possibility of Nasheed being penalised for his disclosure about China’s maritime aims. Vulnerable and impecunious, the Maldivian Government may not be able to resist pressure from the world’s fastest growing economy, which is also the only Asian country in a position to underwrite its economy.

Sri Lanka is another yam caught between the two Asian giants, to use the colourful metaphor of Nepal’s first king, Prithvinarayan Shah. Maithripala Sirisena, who unexpectedly won the December presidential election, seems anxious to walk a tightrope between India and China. His electoral victory was at least partly attributable to his strong criticism of the links his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa had forged with China and which involved billions of dollars of investment, including projects to upgrade Colombo airport and build a new city and deep-water port in Hambantota on the south coast.

Hambantota Harbour is expected to provide an outlet for China’s merchant shipping and navy and is seen as a key unit of what is called the “string of pearls” China is building to secure access to the Indian Ocean and perhaps contain India. It should also be an important step in Xi Jinping’s ambitious vision of a “’Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Route”, which is planned to generate development projects in Asia and Europe. Worried by Colombo’s threatened volte-face, Beijing hastily sent a deputy minister, Liu Jianchao, on February 5 to talk to Sirisena and contain any potential damage to Sino-Sri Lankan ties.

The overture seems to have been successful. Soon after Liu met the new President, the latter’s spokesman confirmed that plans for a public Chinese consortium to build a $1.5 billion new port of Colombo would receive the go-ahead after environmental clearance had been received. In return, the consortium will be given 20 hectares of reclaimed land, as well as a 99-year lease of another 88 hectares for commercial and residential construction including offices, upmarket housing, Sri Lanka’s first 100-storey skyscraper, a marina, golf course, and Formula 1 racing track. The Chinese have promised to invest a further $13 billion by 2025 to create 83,000 new jobs.

It cannot have been coincidence that Sirisena appeared in New Delhi immediately after this reiteration of Sino-Sri Lankan ties. Official statements regarding his meeting with Modi focus mainly on fishermen, the Sri Lankan Constitution’s 13th amendment on devolving political authority, human rights and the presence in Tamil Nadu of more than 100,000 Sri Lankan refugees. But the pentagonal relationship between India, China, the US, Sri Lanka and the Maldives cannot have been far from the surface.

The Maldives recently backed out of signing a 10-year Status of Forces Agreement aimed at building upon the earlier (2020) Acquisition and Cross-Services Agreement, giving American military personnel greater access to Maldivian resorts and also more freedom to carry weapons and from local laws. A Maldivian minister explained that India and Sri Lanka weren’t happy with the pacts although both countries have signed ACSA with the US. The former Sri Lankan president’s brother did so even as the then president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, was flying back to Colombo after a “’mutually satisfying” visit to China.

A year ago, the US denied any intention of military links with the Maldives. Rumours of Chinese interest circulated even in Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s time. China has been funding and building the Laamu Atoll Link Road since December 2014. Yameen calls it a special economic zone (which can cover anything) and there were reports at one time of Saudi finance. Jihadi extremism is an additional worry for India, explaining the heightened interest since the BJP came to power. Dunya Maumoon, the Maldivian foreign minister, met Sushma Swaraj in New Delhi recently for what the Indian spokesman called “ocean diplomacy”. The national security advisor, Ajit Doval, has also visited the Maldives and Sri Lanka for exhaustive discussions.

India would jeopardise all this if Modi’s mid-March trip is cancelled. The four-nation — Sri Lanka, Mauritius and the Seychelles are included – symbolise the “Dosti” series of naval and coast guard exercises, originally between India and the Maldives, that represent India’s stake in maritime. Diplomatic and human rights obligations must be honoured, but it won’t do India’s strategic aims much good to become identified with individuals or particular domestic causes. China’s reaction to Obama’s mission in India makes it all the more necessary for Modi to act with restraint and discretion, but also firmness.

Arunachal Pradesh isn’t part of this scenario. But it’s one more point of pressure for Chinese diplomacy in South Asia.

Sunanda K Datta-Ray

 

[IND151]

The colored part should be of very high concern for us.

@Joe Shearer @sancho @Capt.Popeye

 

[Joe Shearer]

The colored part should be of very high concern for us.

@Joe Shearer @sancho @Capt.Popeye

It should indeed get attention, and detailed attention. Concern? Why? It is an open secret that China is building the foundation for an intrusion into the Indian Ocean, after it has, it hopes, overcome all meaningful resistance in the South China Sea, and has some claims to parity in the proximate Pacific Ocean. This cannot be overcome by sudden, melodramatic moves, as are being proposed in some concerns, but by quiet, sustained and objective economic and commercial diplomacy, and by a steady, rather than a sudden increase in maritime presence.

The situation is asymmetric. India does not need shore stations and facilities and footprint in the near Indian Ocean. China does; China therefore needs to pay for it, on a scale which beggars whatever India needs to do in response. What is more dangerous is the increasing Islamisation that may - may - take place due to the ISIS and its growth, and which may well be encouraged by Pakistan in its suicidal project of competing on terms with parity in the region with India. We may expect not merely religious hysteria; we may also expect Pakistan to acquire, cheap and at cut-rates, missile craft and long-range non-nuclear submarines from Chinese shipyards.

Strategic responses that are required are fairly clear. They do not need to be spelt out and it is obvious that we will get to see a fraction of what is actually being done, and that is how it ought to be.

Concern? No, just alertness and attention, and action taken in time, well ahead of any contingency, anticipating every adventure.

 

[SrNair]

A few years ago.Former Spokesman of MEA said that a sudden movement is not helpful in Foreign affiars.Due to the stupidity of previous spineless UPA China already moved a lot in Maldives.
So we need an effective strategy to countered it.A clear zero loopholes countr movement .Time will take but presrnt foreign policy team can handle that.

 

[lasttry]

No such BS Chinese base will happen.

The current response to Maldives clownery is perfect. Ignore them. When they try something stupid like giving Chinese a base, spank them. If they want to be India's Cuba, its their choice.

Do you know how simple it is to bring that shit country to its knees? All we need to do is plant two bombs and call it ISIS. Over, their economy goes dead in one day. Do you know why?

Gammon is acting like an orangutan. His people will whip him in the next elections. Just wait and watch. If things get out of hand Mr Doval will handle it.

 

[Joe Shearer]

No such BS Chinese base will happen.

The current response to Maldives clownery is perfect. Ignore them. When they try something stupid like giving Chinese a base, spank them. If they want to be India's Cuba, its their choice.

Do you know how simple it is to bring that shit country to its knees? All we need to do is plant two bombs and call it ISIS. Over, their economy goes dead in one day. Do you know why?

Gammon is acting like an orangutan. His people will whip him in the next elections. Just wait and watch. If things get out of hand Mr Doval will handle it.

This is the kind of mindless post that is deeply embarrassing.

"No such BS Chinese base will happen." Why not? Because some punk on the Internet states that it will not?

"The current response to Maldives clownery is perfect. Ignore them. When they try something stupid like giving Chinese a base, spank them. If they want to be India's Cuba, its their choice." What does this mean? Maldivian clownery in jailing the first democratically elected President? Ignore them as they get closer and closer to China? And then suddenly do a handstand and a somersault and 'spank' them? What does that spanking constitute? The Secretary of the External Affairs Ministry calls in the Maldivian Ambassador and puts him over his knee? And how do we make the Maldives India's Cuba, when it does not depend on India for anything at all, unlike the Cuban relationship with the USA?

After this hysterical streak, we get plain insanity.

Are these Pakistani or Chinese false-flaggers working to make all Indians look like fools? Of the very worst kind?

 

[kakathiya]

No such BS Chinese base will happen.

The current response to Maldives clownery is perfect. Ignore them. When they try something stupid like giving Chinese a base, spank them. If they want to be India's Cuba, its their choice.

Do you know how simple it is to bring that shit country to its knees? All we need to do is plant two bombs and call it ISIS. Over, their economy goes dead in one day. Do you know why?

Gammon is acting like an orangutan. His people will whip him in the next elections. Just wait and watch. If things get out of hand Mr Doval will handle it.

how can you guarantee that.

the situation has come to this because India had been ignoring them as some insignificant islands, you know nothing, it will be not easy for India to spank them because if the Chinese stay there and India does some thing, the Chinese will consider it as an assault on china and it will convert in to India china issue.

its not so easy my boy then the pakis and isis will indeed make it their hub, then what will you do? and they have influence among mapillais(kerala arabic muslims) in kerala it will turn in to controversy.and remember that Indian lakshadweep islands are attached to the Maldivian islands it will cause refugee crisis

do not live in Disney land, always keep your foot on the hard rock, what if he wins the elections by any means, and if dhoval thinks that he can handle in the future again India will be in grave trouble if not from Maldives than from china.

and india has seriously showing neglegence towards the indian "laksha dweep" islands which are next to maldives(mala dwipa)= garland of islands

india should setup a naval base at lakshadweep and declare lakshadweep as the property of indian navy. and india should help nasheed he is pro india

 

[rajnikant]

This is the kind of mindless post that is deeply embarrassing.

"No such BS Chinese base will happen." Why not? Because some punk on the Internet states that it will not?

"The current response to Maldives clownery is perfect. Ignore them. When they try something stupid like giving Chinese a base, spank them. If they want to be India's Cuba, its their choice." What does this mean? Maldivian clownery in jailing the first democratically elected President? Ignore them as they get closer and closer to China? And then suddenly do a handstand and a somersault and 'spank' them? What does that spanking constitute? The Secretary of the External Affairs Ministry calls in the Maldivian Ambassador and puts him over his knee? And how do we make the Maldives India's Cuba, when it does not depend on India for anything at all, unlike the Cuban relationship with the USA?

After this hysterical streak, we get plain insanity.

Are these Pakistani or Chinese false-flaggers working to make all Indians look like fools? Of the very worst kind?

So Sir, what should we do? its getting embarrassing to Indian FP and it may set up as a bad example for our other neighbours? shall we just wait and watch?
IMO they might not be independent, but a long history says India must be having some foothold in that country with leaders and normal citizenry. Also to me it also looks like to me a blowback from Srilankan change where chinese are threatened.

 

[kakathiya]

A few years ago.Former Spokesman of MEA said that a sudden movement is not helpful in Foreign affiars.Due to the stupidity of previous spineless UPA China already moved a lot in Maldives.
So we need an effective strategy to countered it.A clear zero loopholes countr movement .Time will take but present foreign policy team can handle that.

stupid UPA and congress before that neglected those islands and did not help pro India regimes, Indian govt always thought that those islands are insignificant, look at it now,

the MHA officials are mainly from north India they don't know any thing whats going on in the southern part

sir you know what will be the consequences if the Chinese built a base there, peaceful south India may be affected and the Chinese will always fishing in the troubled waters

you are not able to handle two Italian marines what will you do if you are faced with a hundred Chinese naval people.

china will use it as a blackmailing tool against India, they may also say that they will help Pakistan & Maldives by providing naval support to both of them than imagine the situation of the Indian navy.

 

[SrNair]

stupid UPA and congress before that neglected those islands and did not help pro India regimes, Indian govt always thought that those islands are insignificant, look at it now,

the MHA officials are mainly from north India they don't know any thing whats going on in the southern part

sir you know what will be the consequences if the Chinese built a base there, peaceful south India may be affected and the Chinese will always fishing in the troubled waters

you are not able to handle two Italian marines what will you do if you are faced with a hundred Chinese naval people.

china will use it as a blackmailing tool against India, they may also say that they will help Pakistan & Maldives by providing naval support to both of them than imagine the situation of the Indian navy.

Oh dude .They cant go that far .In foreign policy nations will move one step at a time.If that step is Ok .They will made other.When those step intiated they will also try to anticipiate the possible backlash that may cause by that foreign policy step.
Like you said the former spineless UPA was worked on the the same idealogy of the Nehruvian era.Their vision and focus was only in India .For looting and meagre economic management .
They couldnt see the foreign policy revolution in the China and entire world .Now in new govt they so far made some excellent diplomatic efforts. Look at the past GoI activities majority of efforts was going for diplomatic exercises.That long term herculean effort alone describes the pathetic policy of UPA.


China is an economic power.But their militarily is still evolving not completed.Challenging India in Indian Ocean will only stretch their small resources .They have to look at the SCS and Pacific where US have Six fleets and powerful JSDMF .They need at least two decades of regular investments .But we already began to anticipate that possibility .At that time we would have around at least 15 brand new subs and current subs ,.3CBGs etc .
Maldives cant provoke by giving complete access to China .After all West and Japan is on our side .Then China can expect same in SCS through Vietnam.Then remaining case is Pakistan.Well we dont expect anything from that front.
Usual measures would be helpful.
Italy is a European nation.You cant compare that with Asian Chinese.Unlike Italy China is directly next to us .

China has capability but they need time for materialise that.

 

[Joe Shearer]

So Sir, what should we do? its getting embarrassing to Indian FP and it may set up as a bad example for our other neighbours? shall we just wait and watch?
IMO they might not be independent, but a long history says India must be having some foothold in that country with leaders and normal citizenry. Also to me it also looks like to me a blowback from Srilankan change where chinese are threatened.

I sympathise with your feelings, but don't agree with the way you have managed to express them.

First of all, before anything else, we should get rid of the fallacy that a country's foreign policy can be embarrassed! What does that mean? Is our foreign policy conducted on the lines of a petty landholder's disputes with his neighbours, with twirlings of moustaches, and cavalier shoulderings of shotguns, with a little swaggering walk in the marketplace in the presence of the opposing faction, with loud and derisive laughter never aimed at anyone but equally strongly and clearly intended to offend? Are these the symbols and outward forms of our execution of the national policy of a country of over a billion people? Or are we to look for impact on the ground, long-term, not in an incident here and a riot there, but achievement of our objectives with as little demonstration and show and bombast possible?

By no means should we wait and watch. Instead, we have to work relentlessly, now and in easier times alike, to keep the forces of secular democracy vitalised and confident, and to ensure that Islamism does not take hold. Not an easy task in a Muslim country, and not a task to be achieved with public display, which will precisely achieve the opposite of what we want.

As far as our other neighbours are concerned, nothing can be more calculated to enrage and upset them than any suggestion that one of them, the Maldives, in this case, should be dealt with harshly in order to serve as an example for the others. That will put the fat in the fire; Nepal, and Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, will each in its own way look for help. And help in each of these cases is readily forthcoming, not in terms of massive military intervention or defence treaties, but in terms of a counter-campaign of economic and military aid which we can never hope to match in the next fifty years.

The last thing we need in the circumstances is bully-boy tactics; there are bigger boys in the yard.

We do have a foothold in the country; where did the imprisoned ex-President go first of all when threatened? To the Indian Embassy, where he stayed until the government of India itself intervened and persuaded him to face his own judicial system. It is precisely this foothold, and what it represents, that we need to strengthen, not chaos and anarchy and a degeneration of the constitutional system and the rule of law. The democrats are on our side, the autocrats are opposed to us.

Which points to another ironic lesson. Our best interests abroad lie in the opposite direction from the antics that we have sadly witnessed, and continue to witness, with greater and greater frequency, in our own country. India, abroad, means democracy and the rule of law; India, at home, sees both democracy and the rule of law under direct and indirect attack.

Coming to a 'blowback' from the developments in Sri Lanka, what was expected? That the Chinese, in their turn, should sit dumbfounded and watch our coup d'etat without making a counter-move? They made their counter-move, which restored some (not all) of their previous position, and now it is for us to build on our gains and move forward. There is no need to mingle this set of events with those on the Maldives; the situations are quite different.

What, above all else, we need to avoid is a sudden, jerky reaction, a knee-jerk; patient diplomacy and long-term plans and actions are the only sound foundations.

 

[Abingdonboy]

A few years ago.Former Spokesman of MEA said that a sudden movement is not helpful in Foreign affiars.Due to the stupidity of previous spineless UPA China already moved a lot in Maldives.
So we need an effective strategy to countered it.A clear zero loopholes countr movement .Time will take but presrnt foreign policy team can handle that.

stupid UPA and congress before that neglected those islands and did not help pro India regimes, Indian govt always thought that those islands are insignificant, look at it now,
.

Can't keep blaming "spineless" UPA, the NDA/BJP/current GoI have been in power for more than 9 months now, they have the to take ownership of India's foriegn policy failures just like they don't hesitate to do for India's foriegn policy successes.

For all the hype about Modi's visits to Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Fiji, Aus etc etc let's not forget about the 40 Indian labourers STILL in the custody of ISIS who everyone seems to have forgetten about once Doval secured the release of the nurses.

 

[SrNair]

Now we have some upperhand in Seychlles and in Sri Lanka .We need to consolidate that ground and should tight our grip.
Modi's own technic is some what good in long term.ISRO already began their work for SAARC satellite.A good forcemultplier for our softpower.
In the case of Maldives shadow movements would be better .
Present PMO decision to cut the Maldives visit was a warning to Maldives.That they can expect something due to their mistreatment towards Nasheed.

 

[TheTruth]

No such BS Chinese base will happen.

The current response to Maldives clownery is perfect. Ignore them. When they try something stupid like giving Chinese a base, spank them. If they want to be India's Cuba, its their choice.

Do you know how simple it is to bring that shit country to its knees? All we need to do is plant two bombs and call it ISIS. Over, their economy goes dead in one day. Do you know why?

Gammon is acting like an orangutan. His people will whip him in the next elections. Just wait and watch. If things get out of hand Mr Doval will handle it.

This is exactly why everyone hates India.

Now we have some upperhand in Seychlles and in Sri Lanka .We need to consolidate that ground and should tight our grip. .

Diplomacy doesn't work that way. It isn't a lever that requires only more force.