Could you asked your source about the transport fleet for IAF. Can US C-17 and C-170 be an alternative to the MTA.
On serious note, I believe India won't take any combat drone from US, rather long range reccee drones like Global Hawk, and would concentrate on the Anti Sub capability. For the Tactical Drone, India would pitch for the Israeli alternative, and push the AURA program with an active help from france.
there is only one C17 available.. and i am sure US wont like to shift that line to us bcz we cant commit such big investments for that..
C130 can definitely be an alternative to MTA but present C130 Js are too much attuned for special mission packages. We need to strip it down and hence i had been suggesting with
@Abingdonboy for another C130 version called C130 XJ.
I had said earlier keep the ratio of An32/MTA : C130 XJ at 1:0.60-0.70 or instead of 100 An32/MTA take 60-70 or 6-7 sqds of C130 XJ (at 10 birds a sqd) and get the line under Make In India. The line takes 3 years to transfer and at 12 jets a year thats biz for 5-6 years post line setup or end to end project line of 8-9 years. On top surely we can export few more dozens to friendly country with US acting as a guardian seller (eg Malaysia, Australia etc).
Since we have demonstrated the use of C130 in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief or HADR ops, its efficacy and effectiveness is demonstrated a lot in South East Asia. On top, its ability to land in ALG is a big bonus.
See recon drones is the best way possible but we should try and see what best we can getwith shielding of frontline jets scenario.. Aura and Ghatak is the way forward but we do require MALE and HALE both.. Recon and ISR is fine but armed ones with ASW capability is a must. Thats why i recommend another 20 odd P8Is, some based out of both East and West coast and A&N ones can have dedicated view over IOR. Of course if USA does nt help us no problem, Israeli options are always there.. But then lets bargain hard..
The F 35 part you mention is quite interesting. 4 squadrons of F35 (~72 no.s) would mean a huge quantum jump in capabilities, but at the same time would mean a goodbye to FGFA and perhaps a cap on Rafale at 36 being negotiated right now.
However it looks unlikely that India would want to ditch Russia at this juncture (especially after having invested quite a money in PAK FA program).
So maybe what could happen is this:
1. Rafale numbers are fixed at 36 at this moment.
2. US, India and Sweden agree on customized production of Grippen in India.
3. LM gets contracts for Naval deck based fighters F 35C for IN. That would justify DTTI proposal of EMALS for India
4. India gets breathing time on FGFA front.
On naval front IN too gets E2D. Along with P80i, it would mean a huge capability increase as far as naval reconnaissance is concerned in IOR.
Gripen under MII is tough bcz its trying hard to first appease the indian masses via a media campaign whereas in reality its unable to cut much ice with DM MP.
On top the capability addition for the fully certified Gripen E is at least 5-6 years away. The IPR they hold are shallow as its partial and India cant get access to everything as it has to go to its parent country companies anyways.
Rafale wont get stopped bcz of the SSN project help as well as reactor tech help. DCNS is already giving us the AIP .. Neuron tech is also flowing with LCA and AMCA help.. TBH to replace Rafale MII its virtually too much for any other nation except say USA who wont be able to complete the tech transfer owing to senate restriction.
The F35 thing is basically a candy shown by US folks especially LM who is showing F35 post 2022 at $75 Mn flyaway. The F16-F35 line is basically asked for a bigger number bcz the plan comprised of 160 F16s and then another 160 F35s under a MII assembly line. But thats virtually killing AMCA project. FGFA wont be harmed bcz its role will continue as Air Dominance plus Air Superiority like F22 complementing the F35/AMCA.
The exception to all this is a much smaller number which will then become a FMS route instead of MII route with offset works. The downside is no tech transfer. The upside is US MIC productivity is so high that in 5 years 100F16s can come in easily and then 60 odd F35 can be in another 3 years so by 2023/24 the whole 160 jets can be delivered ..
But again this wont cut ice as MII is the pet theme of GOI and PM Na Mo..
Anyways i am having a feeling power minister Mr Piyush may takeover as DM and MP may go to Home with Rajnath returning to UP CM incase NDA wins in UP elections. In such a case scenario, its even more difficult for any fighter which does nt give us a true MII prospect over just marketing campaigns.
Credit is to be given to Dassault, till the date they have not gone bombastic with MII wordings or reports but still they have been doing their best to get what we want really. Rest all is just an act to show the price we are paying is the best and competitive after comparing all others.
