Looking Southeast, India Offers an Alternative to China

[Chinese-Dragon]

I am not saying they would dominate militarily. Only economically and technologically. For a tiny country almost devoid of natural resources, the Japanese have performed a near miracle. Given China's military and economic might, they would be in no position to repeat mistakes of the past anyway.

Japan's economy has been in the doldrums partly because they have a cradle-to-grave welfare state. Maybe that needs to change, I don't know.

PS. Perhaps shine is a better word than dominate.

Fair point.

If they manage to fix their economy I will certainly reassess their threat level, but it's almost impossible for them to change their pacifist constitution, so a military threat is unlikely for the time being at least.

I've read a lot of financial/economic papers, and I don't see how Japan can turn their economy around, which is why I am pessimistic to their economic prospects. If anyone can explain how Japan could possibly fix its economy, I would be very interested to hear it.

 

[huzihaidao12]

Japan's biggest problem, internal, rapid population aging, small internal markets, but in the world market, low-technology can not compete with China and South Korea, high-tech fields can not compete with the United States and Europe.

External, completely controlled by the United States and therefore can not effectively defend their interests and to put the U.S. economy requires large, unconditional.

Japan has a sad future, although it is still some advantage in certain areas, but it has no future. Japanese politicians have tried a lot. However, Japan was under U.S. control too deep. Any "out" idea will be eliminated immediately. East Asian Community is one of the efforts, however, the result is the same, Short-term has been suspended, the long-term is very uncertain.

 

[lcloo]

Back to title topic, ASEAN is not looking for foreign countries for leadership, not USA, China, India or Japan. We hold our destiny by our own decision.

However, ASEAN wanted more ties with all above nations mainly for trade for mutual interest, thus all are welcome as long as they do not try to impose leadership role unilaterally. Politically ASEAN is trying to balance the presence of USA, China, India, Japan, EU and Russia. Obama wanted to play USA leadership role but all ASEAN wanted is US presence to balance the growing Chinese influence. Likewise if Indian wants to have larger and closer economic ties, no prblem, but if they try to assert political and military influence, we will not accept that.

 

[Developereo]

If anyone can explain how Japan could possibly fix its economy, I would be very interested to hear it.

Clearly, there are no easy answers and some very smart people have been looking for answers for, as you say, two decades. But I still have faith in the Japanese; I am sure they will pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Japan's biggest problem, internal, rapid population aging, small internal markets, but in the world market, low-technology can not compete with China and South Korea, high-tech fields can not compete with the United States and Europe.

Hmm, I have a different view. Japan still stands for quality, especially in electronics and automotive markets.

If you are price-sensitive, then you buy Korean or Taiwanese or Chinese. But if you want first-rate quality and reliability, then you buy Japanese (or German). The US and other European countries have ceased to be competitive in these markets, except for the ultra-patriotic.

Politically ASEAN is trying to balance the presence of USA, China, India, Japan, EU and Russia.

That's a very dangerous game to play even for one country, let alone a collection of countries where each one is free to put its own national interests first.

There is a reason lions and tigers turn on their trainers every so often.

 

[huzihaidao12]

Clearly, there are no easy answers and some very smart people have been looking for answers for, as you say, two decades. But I still have faith in the Japanese; I am sure they will pull a rabbit out of the hat.



Hmm, I have a different view. Japan still stands for quality, especially in electronics and automotive markets.

If you are price-sensitive, then you buy Korean or Taiwanese or Chinese. But if you want first-rate quality and reliability, then you buy Japanese (or German).

All that profit, no profit is not all, the United States weaken the Japanese cars, share in the U.S. market (how ridiculous Toyota complaints), to bring their own automobile industry, the Europeans are German, all developing country markets is not technology, but in the price. Meanwhile, China and South Korea are rapidly catching up. No sales, even if you have the technology, still can not survive. This is really not good prospects.

 

[Enigma]

Japan's biggest problem, internal, rapid population aging, small internal markets, but in the world market, low-technology can not compete with China and South Korea, high-tech fields can not compete with the United States and Europe.

External, completely controlled by the United States and therefore can not effectively defend their interests and to put the U.S. economy requires large, unconditional.

Japan has a sad future, although it is still some advantage in certain

IMHO the life expectancy rate of india .i.e 64 years average is a blessing in disguise. So the productivity is not hampered. I myself would not want to see myself my 71 st birthday cake though.

 

[huzihaidao12]

IMHO the life expectancy rate of india .i.e 64 years average is a blessing in disguise. So the productivity is not hampered. I myself would not want to see myself my 71 st birthday cake though.

These shortcomings of Japan, is India's advantage, but India are still too many shortcomings in other areas, you may know, so I do not say more.

 

[Developereo]

All that profit, no profit is not all, the United States weaken the Japanese cars, share in the U.S. market (how ridiculous Toyota complaints), to bring their own automobile industry, the Europeans are German, all developing country markets is not technology, but in the price.

The only serious competition to imported mid-priced Japanese cars in the West are locally produced, mid-priced Japanese cars. I don't even know how much the West imports actual cars from Japan; there are so many local production facilities for Japanese brands.

Hyundai, Kia and others are not in the same league as Toyota, Honda, etc. Neither is Saturn. And there are no non-German European brands that can even come close to Japan in terms of quality and overall value-for-money.

Meanwhile, China and South Korea are rapidly catching up.

Korea and Taiwan have been trying for decades to dethrone Japan and Germany as the apex of technological excellence. They haven't succeeded but maybe China, with its vast resources, can succeed where these countries couldn't. In the end, this competition is good for the consumer, so it's all good.

 

[sensenreason]

These shortcomings of Japan, is India's advantage, but India are still too many shortcomings in other areas, you may know, so I do not say more.

As someone mentioned in an earliar post in 1980 both India and China were basket cases in economic and other terms. 30 years later China is edging out Japan as the second largest economy. US,Japan and EU are sinking into an economic abyss even though in 1980 they were shining.

India is far behind China in all ways as it has only have put it all together in the last few years. The point is that some posters here cannot fathom growing and developing as some Indians profess it would. For these naysayers, the fact is that there were naysayers about the China story as well...but they kept at it and have now arrived.As the varied experiences of different countries to prosperity shows...there is no single trait or reason for a people to come to power...its a multitude of factors.

I see no reason why India cannot do so and execute on its plans over the next 10-20 years; ofcourse the odds are stacked against India..militarily, domestically etc but who would have thought in 1990 that we would be having this discussion...but we are.

 

[huzihaidao12]

The only serious competition to imported mid-priced Japanese cars in the West are locally produced, mid-priced Japanese cars. I don't even know how much the West imports actual cars from Japan; there are so many local production facilities for Japanese brands.

Hyundai, Kia and others are not in the same league as Toyota, Honda, etc. Neither is Saturn. And there are no non-German European brands that can even come close to Japan in terms of quality and overall value-for-money.



Korea and Taiwan have been trying for decades to dethrone Japan and Germany as the apex of technological excellence. They haven't succeeded but maybe China, with its vast resources, can succeed where these countries couldn't. In the end, this competition is good for the consumer, so it's all good.

All our differences are present or the future, I agree, Japan is still some advantage. But in the future, if Japan do not find a new path (ground-breaking new technology, or new "own" the market), Japan will continue to decline. And the world is not only one car market, do not look down to later ones. South Korea has some achievements in the occupation of the market, China is fast catching up, such as high-speed railway technology, we have more than Japan. No only an industry, Japan needs to find more, sufficient industry to support the Japan. Those must be able to compete with China, South Korea, india, U.S and Europe in the world market, it is very difficult. Both strong pressure on and under. This is obviously not a good situation.

 

[huzihaidao12]

As someone mentioned in an earliar post in 1980 both India and China were basket cases in economic and other terms. 30 years later China is edging out Japan as the second largest economy. US,Japan and EU are sinking into an economic abyss even though in 1980 they were shining.

India is far behind China in all ways as it has only have put it all together in the last few years. The point is that some posters here cannot fathom growing and developing as some Indians profess it would. For these naysayers, the fact is that there were naysayers about the China story as well...but they kept at it and have now arrived.As the varied experiences of different countries to prosperity shows...there is no single trait or reason for a people to come to power...its a multitude of factors.

I see no reason why India cannot do so and execute on its plans over the next 10-20 years; ofcourse the odds are stacked against India..militarily, domestically etc but who would have thought in 1990 that we would be having this discussion...but we are.

Difficult, just say so, too many problems, however, if the Indians are confident, that is good, at least confidence.

 

[Developereo]

All our differences are present or the future, I agree, Japan is still some advantage. But in the future, if you do not find a new path (ground-breaking new technology, or new "own" the market), Japan will continue to decline. And the world is not only one car market, do not look down to later ones. South Korea has some achievements in the occupation of the market, China is fast catching up, such as high-speed railway technology, we have more than Japan. No only an industry, Japan needs to find more, sufficient industry to support the Japan. Those must be able to compete with China, South Korea, the United States, Europe, the world market, it is very difficult. Both strong pressure on and under.

All valid points.

This is obviously not a good situation.

The challenge is the same for all players. Some, like China, have an advantage in terms of resources; others, like Japan, Germany and the US, have an advantage in terms of a head start; still others like South Korea and Taiwan have an advantage in terms of agility. India is not a player yet, but maybe it will be by mid-century since it, too, has the resources.

It will be interesting to see what happens. All I am saying is that I wouldn't write off the Japanese just yet.

 

[huzihaidao12]

All valid points.



The challenge is the same for all players. Some, like China, have an advantage in terms of resources; others, like Japan, Germany and the US, have an advantage in terms of a head start; still others like South Korea and Taiwan have an advantage in terms of agility. India is not a player yet, but maybe it will be by mid-century since it, too, has the resources.

It will be interesting to see what happens. All I am saying is that I wouldn't write off the Japanese just yet.

External, completely controlled by the United States and therefore can not effectively defend their interests and to put the U.S. economy requires large, unconditional.

Japan has a sad future, although it is still some advantage in certain areas, but it has no future. Japanese politicians have tried a lot. However, Japan was under U.S. control too deep. Any "out" idea will be eliminated immediately. East Asian Community is one of the efforts, however, the result is the same, Short-term has been suspended, the long-term is very uncertain.

If you include these, I am not optimistic about Japan, unless Japan and China can be combined, such as the realization of an East Asian Community, which will solve all the problems in Japan, while China also has great benefits. However, the same, this is very difficult.