I have posted the following bit in another thread,
here. Also quoting that bit in Italic below.
In my opinion, unlikely he came for climate talks. If he visited India only then it would make sense. But he is also visiting BD for climate, if he visits BD, why not Sri Lanka also and other small countries?
Qaud has already done a naval exercise on 5th April in BAY OF BENGAL. UN special envoy for Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener issued waring on 1st April "a bloodbath is imminent" suggesting civil war in Myanmar. Kerry comes for "Climate Talks" on 2nd April. 1st April US ordered some of their diplomats in Myanmar to evacuate. All of these seem to revolve around the situation in Myanmar.
God knows what is coming. Only saving grace should be India should never want civil war in Myanmar or military action by US in Myanmar because both India and Bangladesh, as well as Thailand will face massive influx of refugees. And with refugees, lot of arms will enter Myanmar and then also enter in neighboring countries.
I have a strong feeling that the above paragraph, the lockdown in BD and the hefazat agitation are related. Below are my arguments:
If the Civil war is imminent and the
US+QUAD Allies have determined it is imminent and QUAD navies will be deployed in the surrounding waters to take absolute control of the surrounding seas and oceans, then the following events are related.
1. Modi's visit in BD and receipt of a grand welcome from BAL.
2. Kerry's visit to
only BD and India for "climate talks". India is US ally, BAL is Indian ally, so US+India+BAL are allies if the civil war is imminent.
Therefore, I postulate that BAL has already given confirmation to the US and India that they will stay on the side of US lead alliance.
If the Civil war is imminent and the Chinese navy will also try to control the surrounding oceans and they have already understood BAL will be on US side then the following are relevant.
1. Unprecented level of violence by Hefazat that has never been seen before without any sign of abating as of now.
2. The agitations are taking place in various districts and successive manners (read recent news in BD). It appears the agitations are systematic, organized and planned.
3. Hefazat illiterates never had this kind of organization ability. Some outsiders doing it. Likely Jamat and BNP also secretly involved. By extension one of our ummah brothers are involved, by extension China is involved. China does not have this level of capability in BD, must be done through some allies who do. One of our ummah brothers has a lot of historic connection with BNP, Jamat and ahem, fireworks groups.
4. a ummah brtoher only recently started making many overtures to improve relationship. Maybe they chinese first tried the alliance method with BAL (through the ummah brother), didn't work, now trying the hefazat method (through the ummah brother)
Therefore, I postulate that China is trying by indirect means to overturn BAL in favor of another government to ensure BD stays on Chinese side.
Why BD is important if US and China will have a naval showdown? Chittagong may be one of the important locations for both the navies for supplies, logistics etc. Maybe both sides are trying to keep BD on their side.
This could be a total figment of my imagination but it's not an impossibility at least.
But if I am somehow correct,
1. BAL has taken a very wise decision to stay on US side.
2. BAL must not be removed for any reason in this time no matter how much of a killer of democracy they are. If the civil war and showdown is really coming, we are in for a massive influx of refugees and destabilization in the region and BD will be heavily affcted. A strong government that has firm control of the country should stay on to see through the crisis. Not the right time to remove BAL.
@Atlas
এরা তৌহিদি জনতা নাকি? 
