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LNG import: Pakistan likely to strike long-term deal with Qatar

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Pakistan is likely to strike a long-term agreement with Qatar for the import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), as a Qatari delegation is expected to arrive in Islamabad in the first week of January 2015, Petroleum Ministry officials said. A senior Petroleum Ministry official while talking to Business Recorder on Friday said that a Qatari delegation was expected to visit Pakistan on the start of the New Year to discuss LNG prices and other terms of the agreement.

"Pakistan is likely to strike a 10 years' LNG contract with Qatar and so far we are not in a position to tell about the prices, but we will ensure best possible deal with Qatar," the official said when asked about the price of the commodity. Pakistan at present is facing serious gas demand/supply gap due to which gas supply to many industries and other sectors has been suspended during the winter and to deal with the huge demand/supply gap the government has decided to import up to 2 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCFD) LNG within next three years. On fast track basis, the government is making all-out efforts to start importing 400 Million Cubic Feet per Day (MMCFD) of LNG from Qatar for which a KLNG terminal is under construction at Port Qasim Karachi with a capacity to handle a maximum 600 MMCFD of the commodity.

The official said that Malaysian LNG producer and supplier Petronas has also assured Pakistan of supplying 200 MMCFD of LNG per annum. He added that during a recent visit of Pakistan by senior management of Petronas showed great interest in supplying 1.5 million tons LNG per annum to Pakistan.

According to officials, the USAID consultant has recommended sealing short-term LNG import deal for two to five years to benefit from a price cut in the global market. The consultant had also forecast the possibility of a further reduction in the LNG price in the global market to as low as $6 per MMBTU in coming years due to shale gas production by US and Australia.

However, he said that Qatar wants to strike a long-term deal and maintained that the government was following a two-pronged policy: to import LNG on government to government basis and short-term deal through spot purchases. "We should install power plants to operate on imported LNG during this period," he said, adding that replacement of LNG fuel in power plants would result in cutting fuel cost by 17 percent compared to furnace oil.

"Petronas after Qatar gas is the largest LNG supplier and producer with operations across the globe. The company produces a total of 25 million tons of LNG per annum of which 13 million tons in Malaysia and 12 million tons in other countries including Australia and Canada," the official maintained.

As a result of serious gap between natural gas supply and demand, the government of Pakistan has planned to take LNG imports to 2 BCFD by 2017 for which required infrastructure including LNG terminal is under construction. Pakistan's first LNG terminal with a total capacity to handle 4.5 million tons of LNG per annum currently is under construction by Engro Pakistan at Port Qasim Karachi. It will be ready by the end of February as per contract, but the Ministry of Petroleum has asked the company to complete it by mid January 2015.

According to another official of the Petroleum Ministry, Qatar gas which is demanding $18 per Million British Thermal Unit (mmbtu) in 2012 is likely to cut its demand to $13-14per mmbtu, adding that LNG spot price had come down to as low as $10 per mmbtu. The government has formed LNG pricing committee to negotiate LNG price with Qatar gas and currently terms and conditions of the agreement are being finalised while LNG price and other terms of the agreement are expected to be finalised during upcoming visit of the Qatari delegation.

LNG import: Pakistan likely to strike long-term deal with Qatar | Business Recorder

@niaz
 
The long and short of LNG contracts
December 22, 2014

With the media abuzz, it looks like the government is bustling with bringing LNG to the shore. Recent reports suggest that the government is all set to strike a deal for the import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), with a delegation from Qatar arriving in the first week of January 2015.

This impending agreement will be a ten-year long-term contract with Qatar for the import of 400mmcfd of LNG at a terminal being constructed at Port Qasim Karachi. What is noteworthy here is the tenure of the contract in the light of the current global price scenario. Asian LNG prices are pegged to the international crude oil prices and with oil prices on a slippery slope for the last five months, pains from low oil prices are rippling through other markets, including the global LNG trade.

Moreover, LNG prices are linked to the cost of crude oil with a three to four month lag and with many LNG projects coming online in 2015 leading to oversupply, LNG prices are in for a further decline. Asian spot LNG prices have more than halved since the start of 2014 to below $10 per mmbtu with Brent crude oil prices slipping below $90 a barrel in October 2014, and below $80 a barrel in November 2014.

Earlier in July 2014, Brent crude oil averaged at $106 with LNG prices around $15.95 per mmbtu in October, keeping in mind the lag in the contracts. Global markets are eyeing LNG price to fall below $10 per mmbtu with any further plummeting of oil prices.

Under such circumstances and when Pakistan is ready to import LNG, entering into a long-term import contract can be less beneficial when a country can benefit from the falling LNG spot prices. Earlier Qatar was seeking a 15-year contract. It might have now come down to a 10 years agreement, but even a consultant of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) has been suggesting that the country should enter into a short-term LNG contract for two years because of declining prices globally.

Some are of the view that the government should at least follow a mixed approach of long-term and short-term/spot market to reap the benefits of the ample global supply, shrinking global demand and sliding oil process.

While the price at which this potential contract with Qatar is still to be made known, the last reported FOB prices by some officials was $15 per mmbtu, and when priced for consumers, stood at Rs136 per kg - which is at 92 percent parity to petrol prices when GST and GIDC is included. However, it is expected that the price decided would be less than those reported earlier this year. This column would update you as and when more details are available.

The long and short of LNG contracts | Business Recorder
 
The devil is in the details.

What is the landed price and how will it be adjusted during the period of the contract? Any celebration prior to knowing these two factors will be premature.
 
The devil is in the details.

What is the landed price and how will it be adjusted during the period of the contract? Any celebration prior to knowing these two factors will be premature.

Who, when, where???............You infact very alergic with anything............just anything positive with Pakistan:closed:

The devil is in the details.

What is the landed price and how will it be adjusted during the period of the contract? Any celebration prior to knowing these two factors will be premature.

Who, when, where???............You infact very alergic with anything............just anything positive with Pakistan:closed:
 
The devil is in the details.

What is the landed price and how will it be adjusted during the period of the contract? Any celebration prior to knowing these two factors will be premature.

No celebration, obviously the Qataris are clever they want maximum revenue even if the prices drop down....since the contract will state 'X' price for 10 years, Pakistan will be locked into it. But then energy shortage is really crippling the industry and government wants to show the impact of imported LNG before the elections in 2018....so they would sign on anything.......but what can we do.....? Unless Petronas comes with a better offer.....i don't see how we can negate the abundant supply of Qatar Gas which is literally right next door and in future can be imported via Gwader.
 
Oil and Gas importing countries have a maximum of two years of low prices

After two years when oil prices rise again ; Gas too would become costlier
 
No celebration, obviously the Qataris are clever they want maximum revenue even if the prices drop down....since the contract will state 'X' price for 10 years, Pakistan will be locked into it. But then energy shortage is really crippling the industry and government wants to show the impact of imported LNG before the elections in 2018....so they would sign on anything.......but what can we do.....? Unless Petronas comes with a better offer.....i don't see how we can negate the abundant supply of Qatar Gas which is literally right next door and in future can be imported via Gwader.

So if the Qataris know the degree of Pakistani desperation is such that they "would sign on anything" then the price demanded is going to be exorbitant. Will it be affordable in the long run is the huge question posed. Provision of energy "at any cost" is not a viable solution given Pakistan's resources.

Please keep in mind the price bombs buried in the IP contract that would have supplied energy to Pakistan that it would not have been able to afford, since Pakistan has committed to the INF to gradually remove all subsidies. The recent fall in energy prices globally will give the GoP a cushion for some time which will soften the blow of the subsidies to be stealthily lowered, but it also means that the next rise will be a much sharper and uninsulated shock.

The devil truly hides in the details here.
 
So if the Qataris know the degree of Pakistani desperation is such that they "would sign on anything" then the price demanded is going to be exorbitant. Will it be affordable in the long run is the huge question posed. Provision of energy "at any cost" is not a viable solution given Pakistan's resources.

Please keep in mind the price bombs buried in the IP contract that would have supplied energy to Pakistan that it would not have been able to afford, since Pakistan has committed to the INF to gradually remove all subsidies. The recent fall in energy prices globally will give the GoP a cushion for some time which will soften the blow of the subsidies to be stealthily lowered, but it also means that the next rise will be a much sharper and uninsulated shock.

The devil truly hides in the details here.

I think it already states that the Qatari price is way above $10 per unit commonly available. The problem with buying on the spot is that you may not always have a tanker available......you need a steady flow. Contracts work both ways, for example, if Qataris fail to provide the required and assured amount, they are on the hook.....and if somehow prices go above what they bargained for, they are at loss (though i don't know how that would happen, unless there is a major war)
Also, in of the earlier reports i read that Qataris want Pakistan to put up a 200million USD guarantee which they can cash in in case Pakistan buys less than the agreed amount. In any case, someone in the government is gonna get rich, since the Arabs know how to play in Pakistan.

But like i said, what other alternative is there.........i am sure there are plenty....BP/Shell/Petronas etc.....but the government is favoring Qatar Gas for reasons best known to them...and we know that reason.........These politicians really don't give a crap about what happens to the nation....

About the pricing, well, it will never be as cheap as the gas from local sources......so government will charge the final cost to the consumer....a weighted average.....since if gas from LNG is more expensive than the local SSGC....then people aren't exactly going to line up to purchase it. So government will have to create an equal cost of natural gas.....which means the mean price will higher than any current price.
 
I think it already states that the Qatari price is way above $10 per unit commonly available. The problem with buying on the spot is that you may not always have a tanker available......you need a steady flow. Contracts work both ways, for example, if Qataris fail to provide the required and assured amount, they are on the hook.....and if somehow prices go above what they bargained for, they are at loss (though i don't know how that would happen, unless there is a major war)
Also, in of the earlier reports i read that Qataris want Pakistan to put up a 200million USD guarantee which they can cash in in case Pakistan buys less than the agreed amount. In any case, someone in the government is gonna get rich, since the Arabs know how to play in Pakistan.

But like i said, what other alternative is there.........i am sure there are plenty....BP/Shell/Petronas etc.....but the government is favoring Qatar Gas for reasons best known to them...and we know that reason.........These politicians really don't give a crap about what happens to the nation....

About the pricing, well, it will never be as cheap as the gas from local sources......so government will charge the final cost to the consumer....a weighted average.....since if gas from LNG is more expensive than the local SSGC....then people aren't exactly going to line up to purchase it. So government will have to create an equal cost of natural gas.....which means the mean price will higher than any current price.

Astute comments, which only mean that the ones to be screwed at the end of the day are the Pakistani public.
 
PETRONAS has a large LNG complex at Bintulu, Sarawak with a combined production capacity of 24-million tons of LNG per annum (approximately equates to 1.1 TCF per year). Gas being produced mainly from the offshore fields in Eastern Malaysian states of Sabah & Sarawak. Total proven gas reserves of Malaysia are in the region of about 85 TCF.
PETRONAS shipping subsidiary MISC Berhad is also the second largest owner operator of LNG carriers in the world having 27 LNG carriers. PETRONAS is also a large spot trader in the LNG market.

Qatar on the other hand has proven gas reserves of 900 TCF with LNG exports about 78-million tons per year. Geographically Qatar is also nearer & more natural source of gas. It up to the negotiators to play one against the other and get the best deal for Pakistan.

In case of war involving Iran, threat of closure of Straits of Hormuz cannot be ruled out. I would personally not put all my eggs in one basket and do two deals instead one. Besides, Pakistan’s alleged requirement of 2-billion cft per day is hell of a lot of LNG and probably beyond the capacity of Petronas

Finally, there appears to be an error here. Total demand of all petroleum products in 2014 is estimated at 21-million tons. It is next to impossible that Pakistan would import 2-billion cft per day of LNG.

1-million tons of LNG = 48-billion cft. 2-billion cft LNG per day equals 15.33 million tons of LNG. This would mean Pakistan would be importing 1.275-million tons per month.

Karachi draft limitations mean that we cannot import more than about 60,000 ton parcel at a time. This would mean 21 ships with 60,000 tons each month. Pakistani ports don’t have the capacity to handle such large additional volume

1cft of LNG converts into approx. 630 cft of natural gas. I am of the opinion that Pakistan intended import is 2-billion cft per day of gas not LNG. In other words only about 250-million tons of LNG per year.
 
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So if the Qataris know the degree of Pakistani desperation is such that they "would sign on anything" then the price demanded is going to be exorbitant. Will it be affordable in the long run is the huge question posed. Provision of energy "at any cost" is not a viable solution given Pakistan's resources.

Please keep in mind the price bombs buried in the IP contract that would have supplied energy to Pakistan that it would not have been able to afford, since Pakistan has committed to the INF to gradually remove all subsidies. The recent fall in energy prices globally will give the GoP a cushion for some time which will soften the blow of the subsidies to be stealthily lowered, but it also means that the next rise will be a much sharper and uninsulated shock.

The devil truly hides in the details here.

what we are loosing in the short term for not having enough energy for industry will make up for any long term losses, time is more precious commodity than $1 MBTU extra
 
what we are loosing in the short term for not having enough energy for industry will make up for any long term losses, time is more precious commodity than $1 MBTU extra

Except when it is not $1 but $10 or even more extra. Where are the details?
 
Except when it is not $1 but $10 or even more extra. Where are the details?

we should not pull the numbers from thin air if we have no information and that information will not be available until the deal is done.
 
we should not pull the numbers from thin air if we have no information and that information will not be available until the deal is done.

But that is precisely the problem. Once the deal is done, it is done. Its appropriateness must be discussed and disclosed beforehand.
 
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