Live With Dr. Shahid Masood – 9th August 2014 (Must Watch)

[HRK]

 

[qaisar52]

Interesting analysis. I also believe that this is coming. unless some dramatic change would come.

 

[rockstar08]

on topic... Army will intervene ...

 

[HRK]

on topic... Army will intervene ...

"It has to"

to keep the "STATE" and "ADMINISTRATION" functional ..... what matter is that the intervention would be "soft" or ..... "?"

 

[rockstar08]

"It has to"

to keep the "STATE" and "ADMINISTRATION" functional ..... what matter is that the intervention would be "soft" or ..... "?"

yeah , i dont think army will open fire ... army is observing that punjab is total mess, peoples are now come face to face with police , and police shoot them..
army will not tolerate bloodshed on streets of Islamabad ..
i personally think army should take charge , and within 3-4 months , they announce re elections..
what you think ?

 

[HRK]

yeah , i dont think army will open fire ... army is observing that punjab is total mess, peoples are now come face to face with police , and police shoot them..
army will not tolerate bloodshed on streets of Islamabad ..
i personally think army should take charge , and within 3-4 months , they announce re elections..
what you think ?

In my opinion Army is giving NS 'time to resolve the issue politically' and would prefer "political settlement" but the problem is that for the political settlement NS has to offer something substantial to IK & that offer should be backed by establishment as the guarantor.

Azadi March is the biggest political decision of IK at this stage he can not take it back, either this decision will pay him or will take the political toll form all the participant of the current political deadlock 'including IK' ..... so what could be the possibilities .... ??? , as per my understanding.

In current situation (before the initiation of Long March)

1-"IF" NS agree for the reaudit / verification of the whole of the election process not just for recounting, under the Judicial Supervision and gives "guaranteed assurance" to comply with the decision of judiciary, but this is not possible under the existing Laws for this new law/ amendment/ presidential ordinance is need, I think JI has already purposed this idea, secondly the other problem is the role of Judiciary which can not be determined preemptively so this is also a hurdle in the adoption of this option.

After the initiation of Long March of IK

2- IK and NS will have secondary importance, common Pakistani and the political workers on the road would have primary importance it would not be possible for administration and establishment to confront them, at that stage Gen. Raheel and NS would have left only two options or model to be followed

Before reaching to Islamabad

a) Gen. Kayani Model: Soft intervention in the political matter by establishment to ask NS to defuse the situation by accepting the political demands of IK, at this stage establishment will also 'pressurize' the IK to minimize his demands up to the 'manageable' level, so in short this intervention would be a force mediation b/w IK and NS, but again in this possibility the problem is NS who is not "Gilani or Zardari"

After reaching Islamabad or near to Islamabad

b) Gen. Kakar Model: Establishment could ask NS to resign and recommend to the president for the dissolution of National and Provincial Assemblies, in return establishment would extend its assurance to 'accommodate' NS and Co. in case of political witch hunting, again this would be a soft intervention, but have some inbuilt issues in the implementation of this option; such as

i) Extent of Accommodation to NS & Co.
ii) Local & Foreign Guarantors.
iii) Role of Judiciary.

Judiciary will have an important role in the settlement of this political deadlock, failure of NS and IK even after the assistance of establishment (option 1 and 2a) would create such a political chaos which will result an administrative vacuum which eventually will 'suck-in' different state organs, before the reinstate of Chaudhary Iftikhar Judiciary was considered as the subordinate organization of Establishment, but the recent history has effected the course of certain future events. Now Judiciary will play a role of "equivalent member of the establishment" if it chose to support the functionality of the administration, remember it will not the revival of "Doctrine of Necessity" but "Doctrine of State Functionality"

In every other scenario Judiciary is a must participant and its 'alignment' with the establishment will decide the political future of Pakistan, here I would ask you to recall the statement of Ch. Iftikhar which he has issued few days back, if we consider it as the indication of POV of Judiciary than it mean Judiciary and Establishment is not on a same page or at least not properly align which will have its own implications on the political future of Pakistan.

 

[rockstar08]

In my opinion Army is giving NS 'time to resolve the issue politically' and would prefer "political settlement" but the problem is that for the political settlement NS has to offer something substantial to IK & that offer should be backed by establishment as the guarantor.

Azadi March is the biggest political decision of IK at this stage he can not take it back, either this decision will pay him or will take the political toll form all the participant of the current political deadlock 'including IK' ..... so what could be the possibilities .... ??? , as per my understanding.

In current situation (before the initiation of Long March)

1-"IF" NS agree for the reaudit / verification of the whole of the election process not just for recounting, under the Judicial Supervision and gives "guaranteed assurance" to comply with the decision of judiciary, but this is not possible under the existing Laws for this new law/ amendment/ presidential ordinance is need, I think JI has already purposed this idea, secondly the other problem is the role of Judiciary which can not be determined preemptively so this is also a hurdle in the adoption of this option.

After the initiation of Long March of IK

2- IK and NS will have secondary importance, common Pakistani and the political workers on the road would have primary importance it would not be possible for administration and establishment to confront them, at that stage Gen. Raheel and NS would have left only two options or model to be followed

Before reaching to Islamabad

a) Gen. Kayani Model: Soft intervention in the political matter by establishment to ask NS to defuse the situation by accepting the political demands of IK, at this stage establishment will also 'pressurize' the IK to minimize his demands up to the 'manageable' level, so in short this intervention would be a force mediation b/w IK and NS, but again in this possibility the problem is NS who is not "Gilani or Zardari"

After reaching Islamabad or near to Islamabad

b) Gen. Kakar Model: Establishment could ask NS to resign and recommend to the president for the dissolution of National and Provincial Assemblies, in return would extend its assurance to 'accommodate' NS and Co. in case of political witch hunting, again this would be a soft intervention, but have some inbuilt issues in the implementation of this option; such as

i) Extent of Accommodation to NS & Co.
ii) Local & Foreign Guarantors.
iii) Role of Judiciary.

Judiciary will have an important role in the settlement of this political deadlock, failure of NS and IK even after the assistance of establishment (option 1 and 2a) would create such a political chaos which will result an administrative vacuum which eventually will 'suck-in' different state organs, before the reinstate of Chaudhary Iftikhar Judiciary was considered as the subordinate organization of Establishment, but the recent history has effected the course of certain future events. Now Judiciary will play a role of "equivalent member of the establishment" if it chose to support the functionality of the administration, remember it will not the revival of "Doctrine of Necessity" but "Doctrine of State Functionality"

In every other scenario Judiciary is a must participant and its 'alignment' with the establishment will decide the political future of Pakistan, here I would ask you to recall the statement of Ch. Iftikhar which he has issued few days back, if we consider it as the indication of POV of Judiciary than it mean Judiciary and Establishment is not on a same page or at least not properly align which will have its own implications on the political future of Pakistan.

well i agree with all you said .. but dont you think that we are missing Qadri factor here ? he has manage to gather a huge workers , as far as i know he has some 2-3 million followers in whole pakistan ... plus Kayani was very soft .. even if it comes to national security , but Raheel Shairf doesnt look shairf in any way .. he wont just sit quite and wait till Islamabad go out of his hand ... plus we can not complete neglect the factor of possible terrorist attack ..i mean this will be golden chance for TTP and their kinds to tear this country apart ... ..any attack or trying to assassinate any big leader will done the job for them , public will go mad ... Qadri supporters already buried 14-15 peoples on their account .. and IK said i will hang those who will open fire at my workers. . today he issue a statement that if anything happens to IK , workers dont let NS and his family ...free ... imagine the mess we are facing right now .... one side Govt is using power to defuse things, secondly Qadri and their workers are now using violent tactics ..and once IK will start the march ... things will go out of his hands as well ... because there is no way he or anyone can handle mob of half a million peoples .....

I personally think army should not let this happen .... before the march start army should intervene .. leave alone democrazy and etc.. its time to see the national interest ...
and we also cant neglect the factor of diplomats along with their family and staff in Islamabad .. they will be super scared .... and govt need to protect them as well... international pressure will be on Govt or Army ..
NS tackle this situation very badly ... he Fcuked situation up by using power in model town ... nobody will now sit quite if police open fire at them ....and if Qadri and IK will do their Inqilaab and Azaadi March ... than there will more than a million peoples in Islamabad ... army has deployed only few hundred troops .as i heard in news .. but they wont be sufficent .. PMLN wants to put army or police against IK and Qadri ..or may be they want to get out from there as " Democratic Martyrs " ... between them PPPP,JI , MQM and JUI and other parties are just waiting to see where the Elephant of Establishment will sit ..... PPPP will try their best no to let Qadri or IK in power .. cause if anyone of them comes to power .. they will re open their Cases and as IK and Qadri has fire so many word bullets in their speeches , any one who back off will be end of his political career. ... for MQM IK will be like a nightmare .. everyone know the reason .. Qadri has soft corner for mqm ... but even if IK comes to power he might not want to go for MQM so early .. cause after all this mess country's everything will be at stake .. including Economy ..

i really hope everything goes according to Army or Establishment plan if they have any .... plus there are already more than 1 million IDP's waiting in camps to go back to their homes ....

We should not Forget that US want a stable Pakistan until their equipment go out from Pakistan, obviously they will use routes of Pakistan ...

 

[HRK]

well i agree with all you said .. but dont you think that we are missing Qadri factor here ? he has manage to gather a huge workers , as far as i know he has some 2-3 million followers in whole pakistan ...

Qadri is asking bigger stake than this due share, Pakistan is not Iran or France. Only revolution which is possible here is "Heavy Boots Revolution"

I personally think army should not let this happen .... before the march start army should intervene .. leave alone democrazy and etc.. its time to see the national interest ...

Judiciary ..... therefore soft intervention should be preferred option

and we also cant neglect the factor of diplomats along with their family and staff in Islamabad .. they will be super scared .... and govt need to protect them as well... international pressure will be on Govt or Army .... NS tackle this situation very badly ... he Fcuked situation up by using power in model town ... nobody will now sit quite if police open fire at them ....

Agreed ....

and if Qadri and IK will do their Inqilaab and Azaadi March ... than there will more than a million peoples in Islamabad ...

No they cant gather a million people not more than 2-3 hundred thousand for any given time period....

army has deployed only few hundred troops .as i heard in news .. but they wont be sufficent .. PMLN wants to put army or police against IK and Qadri ..or may be they want to get out from there as "Democratic Martyrs" ...

NS is not Bhutto .... he will never chose Political Martyrdom

between them PPPP,JI , MQM and JUI and other parties are just waiting to see where the Elephant of Establishment will sit .....

PPPP will try their best no to let Qadri or IK in power .. cause if anyone of them comes to power .. they will re open their Cases and as IK and Qadri has fire so many word bullets in their speeches , any one who back off will be end of his political career. .....

for MQM IK will be like a nightmare .. everyone know the reason .. Qadri has soft corner for mqm ... but even if IK comes to power he might not want to go for MQM so early .. cause after all this mess country's everything will be at stake .. including Economy ....

Billawal is not a charismatic leader like his Mother or Grandfather, PPP prefer the current setup but would also seek concession in any new setup as well ..... JUI and MQM have significant role at national level

mayorship of Karachi Hyderabad is enough for them MQM ..... JUI worth even less than MQM

We should not Forget that US want a stable Pakistan until their equipment go out from Pakistan, obviously they will use routes of Pakistan ...

Yap but as of now it seems US & KSA are supporting NS government, IK is not the a preferred choice of US and establishment ....

 

[rockstar08]

Qadri is asking bigger stake than this due share, Pakistan is not Iran or France. Only revolution which is possible here is "Heavy Boots Revolution"



Judiciary ..... therefore soft intervention should be preferred option



Agreed ....

View attachment 42691



No they cant gather a million people not more than 2-3 hundred thousand for any given time period....



NS is not Bhutto .... he will never chose Political Martyrdom



Billawal is not a charismatic leader like his Mother or Grandfather, PPP prefer the current setup but would also seek concession in any new setup as well ..... JUI and MQM have significant role at national level

mayorship of Karachi Hyderabad is enough for them MQM ..... JUI worth even less than MQM



Yap but as of now it seems US & KSA are supporting NS government, IK is not the a preferred choice of US and establishment ....

i dont agree that Qadri is like aytullah or mulla ... he has his vision about modern democracy like USA , Japan and turkey ... if he was mullah he will shout anti democracy slogans ...
now PAT and PTI will go together , and i think they manage to gather 10lac peoples ...
well i can expect a political martyr from NS .. they are putting things on that direction ..

MQM is waiting for army and establishment to decide where they are standing than they will choose sides. .. so as PPPP...
but i think qadri have soft corner for MQM and so as shiekh raheed .. PTI will have to work with MQM in order to make sindh govt ...

IK will not be suitable option for US or KSA ... i can say that from talks qadri will not be as easy to tackle

 

[alibaz]

A very good analysis by Dr Shahid Masood, I still believe NS should kick Mr Sddique and show trust in Raja Zafar ul Haq, Zafar Ali Shah and use his interior minister.

 

[HRK]

Live With Dr. Shahid Masood Part 2– 11th August 2014