Lebonan🇱🇧-Israel🇮🇱 Warr

[AbdulQadir7]

Recent allegations have surfaced regarding Iran's involvement in espionage and accusations of betrayal among its regional allies. These developments highlight the complex geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.

Key Allegations​

1. Espionage Activities: Abouzar Rahmati, a former FAA contractor, has been indicted for allegedly spying for Iran. He is accused of transferring sensitive U.S. information to Iranian intelligence while lying about his military background with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to gain employment in the U.S. government. This incident underscores concerns about Iranian infiltration and espionage efforts targeting U.S. interests.
2. Betrayal Accusations: In Lebanon, cleric Mohammad Ali Al-Husseini has made pointed remarks suggesting that Iranians have betrayed their allies, specifically referencing the lack of support for groups like Hamas during critical moments. He stated, "Write your will. The Iranians have betrayed you," reflecting a sentiment of disillusionment among some factions regarding Iran's commitment to its allies.
3. Internal Discontent: Iranian media and citizens are expressing frustration over perceived betrayals by Russia and Syria, particularly after recent Israeli strikes that resulted in significant casualties among IRGC officers in Syria. There are allegations that these countries provided intelligence to Israel, leading to targeted attacks on Iranian positions

Contextual Background​

• Iran's Role in Regional Conflicts: Iran has historically positioned itself as a supporter of various militant groups across the region, including Hamas and Hezbollah. However, recent events have raised questions about the reliability of this support, especially in light of accusations that Iran may not intervene directly in conflicts involving its allies despite providing financial backing
  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/17/irans-betrayal-leaves-hamas-with-nowhere-to-go/
• Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has further complicated Iran's relationships with its regional partners. Reports suggest that Hamas may have acted independently during recent escalations, leading to criticism from Iranian leadership for not coordinating actions more closely.
  https://x.com/ZEUS_PSF/status/1840601019488800994?t=OBi_8-wjfmRfU3J9r2cByg&s=08

 

[AbdulQadir7]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1840771182628356276

 

[HamzaWaseem]

Images Reveal Wreckage of American MQ-9 Drone Shot Down by Yemen's Houthis in Saada Province
Recent images have surfaced showing the wreckage of an American MQ-9 drone that was shot down by Yemen's Houthi forces in the airspace over Saada province. This event marks the 11th instance in which a UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) has been downed by the Houthis, underscoring the group's growing air defense capabilities amidst the ongoing conflict in Yemen.

Details of the Incident​

The MQ-9 drone, known for its surveillance and strike capabilities, was reportedly shot down while operating in the skies over Saada, a province in northern Yemen that has been a focal point of the conflict. The images from the scene show the scattered remains of the drone, with debris and damaged components lying across the rugged desert terrain. The drone's fuselage and wings appear heavily damaged, indicative of a direct strike, possibly by surface-to-air missiles or another anti-aircraft system employed by the Houthis.

Houthi Capabilities and Tactical Success​

This latest downing is part of a broader trend where the Houthis have increasingly demonstrated their ability to intercept and neutralize sophisticated UAVs in Yemen's airspace. The Houthis have claimed several drone shootdowns over the years, targeting both surveillance drones and combat UAVs used by the Saudi-led coalition and their allies, including the United States.
The MQ-9, often referred to as the "Reaper," is a highly advanced drone used for both intelligence-gathering and precision strikes. The successful targeting of such a high-tech UAV suggests that the Houthis have made significant advances in their air defense systems, either through the use of domestically produced technology or external support.

Strategic Significance of Saada Province​

Saada province is a strategic stronghold for the Houthis and has been a critical battleground in the wider Yemeni civil war. The region, located near the Saudi Arabian border, has witnessed numerous airstrikes and military operations, with drones playing a central role in reconnaissance and targeted attacks. For the Houthis, shooting down an American drone in this area is not only a military victory but also a symbolic demonstration of their resilience and capability to challenge technologically superior forces.

Growing Tensions and Implications for the Conflict​

The increasing frequency of UAV shootdowns highlights the intensifying nature of the conflict in Yemen, where both sides have employed a range of advanced technologies. The Houthis’ ability to neutralize high-value drones such as the MQ-9 poses a challenge to coalition forces that rely heavily on aerial surveillance and drone strikes for intelligence and military operations.
For the United States, the loss of an MQ-9 drone represents a costly setback. The Reaper is a multi-million-dollar asset designed for long-endurance, high-altitude surveillance, and precision targeting. Its destruction in Yemeni airspace not only raises concerns about operational vulnerabilities but also about the evolving threats posed by non-state actors in modern warfare.

Conclusion​

As the conflict in Yemen continues to rage, incidents like the downing of the American MQ-9 drone by the Houthis in Saada province highlight the complexity and evolving nature of the war. The Houthis’ success in targeting advanced UAVs reflects their growing military capabilities and presents a new challenge for external forces involved in the conflict. With the 11th drone now downed by the group, the balance of airpower in Yemen’s skies could face increasing disruption as the war continues to drag on.

 

[sidkhan2]

Breaking News: Israel Officially Launches Ground Invasion in Lebanon

In a major escalation of regional tensions, Israel has officially launched a ground invasion into Lebanon. The move marks a significant turning point in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese militant group backed by Iran.

Context of the Invasion​

The invasion follows a period of intense border clashes and heightened military activities between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah, which have been exchanging rocket and missile fire in recent weeks. The border area between northern Israel and southern Lebanon has been a flashpoint for years, but this new development signals a broader conflict that could draw in regional actors and have far-reaching geopolitical implications.

Objectives of the Ground Operation​

Israel's objectives for the invasion appear to focus on dismantling Hezbollah's military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, neutralizing rocket-launching sites, and targeting underground tunnel networks reportedly used by Hezbollah fighters. The IDF has emphasized that the operation is aimed at protecting Israeli civilians from rocket attacks and preventing Hezbollah from strengthening its military presence near the Israeli border.

The decision to invade follows weeks of Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, as well as retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah against Israeli military installations. Israel has also accused Hezbollah of launching drone incursions into Israeli airspace and stepping up its military activities along the border.

Response from Hezbollah and Lebanon​

Hezbollah has vowed to resist the invasion and has called for nationwide mobilization in Lebanon. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has warned of "severe consequences" for Israel, suggesting that Hezbollah will employ its extensive arsenal of rockets and guerrilla warfare tactics to counter the Israeli ground forces.

Lebanon’s government, already struggling with internal political and economic crises, faces the challenge of managing the fallout from this invasion. International actors, including the United Nations and regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia, are closely monitoring the situation, with many expressing concerns that the conflict could spiral into a broader regional war.

Potential Regional Implications​

The ground invasion in Lebanon has the potential to destabilize the wider Middle East. Hezbollah's close ties to Iran raise the possibility of Iranian involvement, either directly or through increased support for Hezbollah. This could also lead to increased tension between Israel and other neighboring countries, particularly Syria, where Iranian and Hezbollah forces are active.

Furthermore, this invasion risks drawing in international actors, with the United States typically supporting Israel's right to defend itself and some European countries calling for restraint. The possibility of diplomatic fallout is high, and peacekeeping efforts in the region may face new challenges.

Conclusion​

Israel’s official ground invasion of Lebanon marks a major escalation in the conflict with Hezbollah, with significant risks of broader regional involvement. As fighting intensifies, the international community will be watching closely, concerned about the implications for Middle Eastern stability and global security.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1840826122038087715

https://twitter.com/x/status/1840827486902325316

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

Middle East boss speaking to Iran after genociding and destroying the lives of millions in Gaza and West Bank.

 

[vizier]

Another item that can be useful is Lancet like long range anti tank weapon qued by drones. Training to use them should have been given to the resistance groups as well.

This might be a good idea. But the point is items like these should have been thought by Iranian officials much before than some of us write about it in forums like these. If these are not thought beforehand then this is a serious problem. The prime responsible to think about those types of solutions is Iranian officials rather than anyone else. There can be times that many of us miss items like these because of individual problems, occupied by our jobs, other responsibilities etc.

These areas can be improved by developing more creativity, employing full-time working think tank groups to devise-create solutions to all possible problems etc. But the first step is to accept that there are always areas of improvement rather than thinking yourself perfect and solutions will come to you rather than you generating them. For example a high quality think tank group may have guessed other attacks would happen in Beirut after the first one that martyred several Hezb commanders before the last big attack. Especially after israel released the chart that showed Nasrallah not signed with x and many others signed with x new and improved precautions should have been taken to protect him.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

Another item that can be useful is Lancet like long range anti tank weapon qued by drones. Training to use them should have been given to the resistance groups as well.

This might be a good idea. But the point is items like these should have been thought by Iranian officials much before than some of us write about it in forums like these. If these are not thought beforehand then this is a serious problem. The prime responsible to think about those types of solutions is Iranian officials rather than anyone else. There can be times that many of us miss items like these because of individual problems, occupied by our jobs, other responsibilities etc.

These areas can be improved by developing more creativity, employing full-time working think tank groups to devise-create solutions to all possible problems etc. But the first step is to accept that there are always areas of improvement rather than thinking yourself perfect and solutions will come to you rather than you generating them. For example a high quality think tank group may have guessed other attacks would happen in Beirut after the first one that martyred several Hezb commanders before the last big attack. Especially after israel released the chart that showed Nasrallah not signed with x and many others signed with x new and improved precautions should have been taken to protect him.

Hezbollah fighting Israel is bad idea to begin with, unless they have atleast air defense like S400 or better. Iran claims Bavar-373 can also detect stealth, but have they deployed and used those against Israeli aircrafts in Lebanon or Syria.

 

[vizier]

Hezbollah fighting Israel is bad idea to begin with, unless they have atleast air defense like S400 or better. Iran claims Bavar-373 can also detect stealth, but have they deployed and used those against Israeli aircrafts in Lebanon or Syria.

S400 is not suitable for Labennon area. It can easily be discovered and destroyed. Bawar373 and similar can be deployed in Syria where there is depth. Also there needs to be first shorads-anti cruise missile systems deployed in Syria initially. Shorads are cheaper and more easy to transfer(through tartus port with Russian support) and they protect bawar373 against cruise missile saturation attacks. After that long range Bawar 373 can be transferred. Labennon is full of spies it seems. In Syria israel has spies too but at least more equipment can be stationed there for defense and more flexibility to move around.

The air defense that should have been transferred to Labennon long before these issues started is sufficient amount of man portable ads to take out low altitude targets. Also smaller guerilla style high altitude air defense that is deployed in Yemen hunting down usa mq9 reapers these days. Yemens ads uses a larger missile but they can hide the missiles. Labennon is very close to israel. Pantsyr systems rocket can be copied as a man portable missile which is much smaller like 80kg that can reach 15km altitude and 20km range is much more suitable in Labennon area. It can be connected to a IIR sensor and laser-radar range finder just like in Yemen. A portable stealthy sam system can hunt down high altitude israeli systems whether they are planes or uavs. This item should have been developed long time ago and deployed in Labennon. So it is again a mistake that should have been thought before but not. After 7 October Hezbollah and other groups didnt know the attack beforehand so they were not coordinated and much less prepared than even today. The resistance groups could have been prepared by Iran sending air defenses through Tartus port(albuqamal is bombed continiously large equipment cant be sent from there) before these last issues happened. But at least air defenses can still be deployed in Labennon through Syria so this mistake can be fixed although a lot of price is paid because of that.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

S400 is not suitable for Labennon area. It can easily be discovered and destroyed. Bawar373 and similar can be deployed in Syria where there is depth. Also there needs to be first shorads-anti cruise missile systems deployed in Syria initially. Shorads are cheaper and more easy to transfer(through tartus port with Russian support) and they protect bawar373 against cruise missile saturation attacks. After that long range Bawar 373 can be transferred. Labennon is full of spies it seems. In Syria israel has spies too but at least more equipment can be stationed there for defense and more flexibility to move around.

The air defense that should have been transferred to Labennon long before these issues started is sufficient amount of man portable ads to take out low altitude targets. Also smaller guerilla style high altitude air defense that is deployed in Yemen hunting down usa mq9 reapers these days. Yemens ads uses a larger missile but they can hide the missiles. Labennon is very close to israel. Pantsyr systems rocket can be copied as a man portable missile which is much smaller like 80kg that can reach 15km altitude and 20km range is much more suitable in Labennon area. It can be connected to a IIR sensor and laser-radar range finder just like in Yemen. A portable stealthy sam system can hunt down high altitude israeli systems whether they are planes or uavs. This item should have been developed long time ago and deployed in Labennon. So it is again a mistake that should have been thought before but not. After 7 October Hezbollah and other groups didnt know the attack beforehand so they were not coordinated and much less prepared than even today. The resistance groups could have been prepared by Iran sending air defenses through Tartus port(albuqamal is bombed continiously large equipment cant be sent from there) before these last issues happened. But at least air defenses can still be deployed in Labennon through Syria so this mistake can be fixed although a lot of price is paid because of that.

Syria has comprehensive air defense, long range, anti-cruise, man-portable systems? Why they get bombed easily? From google, Syria shot down only one Israeli jet 6 years ago.

 

[vizier]

Syria has comprehensive air defense, long range, anti-cruise, man-portable systems? Why they get bombed easily? From google, Syria shot down only one Israeli jet 6 years ago.

israeli planes dont risk entering Syria. They launch popeye and similar cruise missiles from low altitudes(radars cant catch them) and from their own airspace or from occupied golan heights. Syria has upgraded buk systems but still israel launches a dozen cruise missiles towards the same target so they cant shoot down all the cruise missiles. Also they protect sensitive areas like Damascus or military bases but not everywhere like places close to Albuqamal pass between Syria and Iraq. By Iran transfering anti-cruise missile shorad systems(later on long range systems like bawar 373)the control would be on Iranian personnel as well they would be protecting sensitive areas close to resistance groups or their leaders more effectively. Also the air defense network would be much more dense in sensitive areas like Damascus with both Syrian and Iranian air defenses cooperating against a potential israeli saturation cruise missile attack with dozens of missiles.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

israeli planes dont risk entering Syria. They launch popeye and similar cruise missiles from low altitudes(radars cant catch them) and from their own airspace or from occupied golan heights. Syria has upgraded buk systems but still israel launches a dozen cruise missiles towards the same target so they cant shoot down all the cruise missiles. Also they protect sensitive areas like Damascus or military bases but not everywhere like places close to Albuqamal pass between Syria and Iraq. By Iran transfering anti-cruise missile shorad systems(later on long range systems like bawar 373)the control would be on Iranian personnel as well they would be protecting sensitive areas close to resistance groups or their leaders more effectively. Also the air defense network would be much more dense in sensitive areas like Damascus with both Syrian and Iranian air defenses cooperating against a potential israeli saturation cruise missile attack with dozens of missiles.

Damascus was bombed recently, but no response from Syria. Why Syria does not use low altitude cruise missiles, it never uses any kind of missile. Missiles from Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, but not Syria?

 

[vizier]

Damascus was bombed recently, but no response from Syria. Why Syria does not use low altitude cruise missiles, it never uses any missile. Missiles from Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, but not Syria?

One reason is they are already damaged from a long civil war and directly entering a large scale conflict would drag others like Usa in and start bombing Syria. Just like in Yemen. That is why they stay on the defensive. In direct attacks like in Damascus they are still silent which I think is because of they dont have much to counter against israel directly. But through proxies and Syria allowing support to proxies like Hezbollah by Iran they can counter israel indirectly and effectively.

Syria is also a closer ally to Russia than to Iran so based on its own interests they stay out of direct confrontation against israel. But ofcourse they will possibly at least give permission for Iran stationing air defenses in Syria under control of Iranian personnel and transfer air defenses to Labennon as well to use against israel. This is positive for both countries interests and done through proxies against israel not directly.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

One reason is they are already damaged from a long civil war and directly entering a large scale conflict would drag others like Usa in and start bombing Syria. Just like in Yemen. That is why they stay on the defensive. In direct attacks like in Damascus they are still silent which I think is because of they dont have much to counter against israel directly. But through proxies and Syria allowing support to proxies like Hezbollah by Iran they can counter israel indirectly and effectively.

Syria is also a closer ally to Russia than to Iran so based on its own interests they stay out of direct confrontation against israel. But ofcourse they will possibly at least give permission for Iran stationing air defenses in Syria under control of Iranian personnel and transfer air defenses to Labennon as well to use against israel. This is positive for both countries interests and done through proxies against israel not directly.

Before the civil war also Syria did not have good deterrence against Israel. Syria may be closer ally to Russia, but Russia has not done good job of protecting Syria from Israel. Russia and Iran are interested mainly in preserving the Syrian regime.

 

[vizier]

Before the civil war also Syria did not have good deterrence against Israel. Syria may be closer ally to Russia, but Russia has not done good job of protecting Syria from Israel. Russia and Iran are interested mainly in preserving the Syrian regime.

They were buying weapons from Russia after the 2003 Usa-Iraq war and under Usa threats against Syria as well. I remember like they bought kornet atgms and similar in that era pre-2010. Russia also had extensive trade relationship with Eu unlike today and the problems with Ukraine were not on the surface. Russian position before the civil war is natural and understandable. During the Syrian civil war when the situation was serious for Syria they also entered into the conflict supporting Syria. It is also understandable considering Russias own interests that they did not want to clash directly with israel during that era and actively participate into other regional conflicts. But under current conditions I suppose they wont oppose air defense equipment transfer to Syria-Labennon from Iran.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

Why did Hezbollah show off their tunnel in the middle of a war? Who does that? Nasrallah also exposed their capabilities like drone pictures and announced they were getting pagers.