Pakistan handled the incident perfectly from start to finish. First it waited till the Indians deny the claim that any pilot was shot down, then it released the now world famous beating of Abinandan. Before the Indians could rally public sentiments over the mistreatment of POW, however, they diffused tension by showing how Abinandan was given proper medical care and fantastic tea. Everything unfolded while the Bhakts were grinding their teeth down to stubs in impotent rage.
I think Pakistan’s superb handling of the incident has to do with Pakistan’s superb understanding of Indian psyche. There is much for China to learn in this regard.
To add to this, the other side made
every mistake possible, and their unilateral and reckless action gave the whole initiative to us.
Their first mistake was the propaganda effort and politicisation of their national security. Their media and populous were baying for punitive action against us, but one would hope that the sane and competent leadership would know better. Instead it seems they began to believe their own propaganda that somehow Pakistan was just some puny irritant. That they could strike us without any cost, as if it were the US striking Iraq, or Israel striking a broken Syria.
Then happily for us, their Spice kits and pilots botched the raid, and their disjointed and highly unprofessional leadership made all sorts of claims while chest thumping, none of which they could remotely prove.
So what they did can be summarized as:
- Poor planning and no consideration of conflict dynamics and escalation.
- Political posturing trumped professional assessments and wargaming.
- Botched raid, and in return they handed the escalation ladder to us.
- Lost any int'l credibility by their actions. Thus making Pakistan seem the more responsible nation.
The next day was just proof of their failure, and Abhi was the icing on the cake.
And Modi talking about Rafale in the aftermath shows that he hasn't really learnt his lesson. Chaiwala showing his ineptitude. Even
if during the previous conflict, we only had old F-7s and Mirages, instead of F-16s and JFs, we still would have been compelled to respond.
Even if tomorrow they have Rafale or F-35, there can be no 'limited strike' farce that goes unanswered. Every time they try this, they will hand us the initiative, and allow us to respond in whichever way suits us best.
