Latest Indian GDP data is FAKE. Heres why

[I.R.A]

Point 3, 4 and 5?????? Who believes that these will keep growing domestically forever? May be in my limited knowledge the spare parts industry growth should have been analysed for these????

 

[Kashmiri Pandit]

India receives $32.87 bn FDI in October-September - The Economic Times

India's April-October fiscal deficit touches 74% of full-year target - The Economic Times

 

[Nilgiri]

Here are some reactions from ACTUAL economists who understand whats going on unlike the OP blog/twitter author.

India's GDP growth at 7.4%: Here's what experts have to say - The Economic Times

Point 3, 4 and 5?????? Who believes that these will keep growing domestically forever? May be in my limited knowledge the spare parts industry growth should have been analysed for these????

India has a large population who are still low income and are aspiring to reach middle income, so the long term figures for transport related industries (and industries in general) are going to keep growing for quite a long time.

 

[Beast]

Here are some reactions from ACTUAL economists who understand whats going on unlike the OP blog/twitter author.

India's GDP growth at 7.4%: Here's what experts have to say - The Economic Times



India has a large population who are still low income and are aspiring to reach middle income, so the long term figures for transport related industries (and industries in general) are going to keep growing for quite a long time.

These economist are all from India. Of course they will its good of India growth to protect their rice bowl in India. Do we have some neutral professional assessment?

 

[Providence]

The article seems to have been written by a tabloid journalist and not an economist. Otherwise he/she wouldn't have beaten around the bush and attacked the very fundamentals of what comprises a GDP.

The GDP equation is :

Let's have some data for each of these buckets before we can comment !

Now fudging GDP data is technically not impossible since china has done it in the past but its imperative to have an educated discussion and not at the level where the original article is written.


E.g. One point in op is exports are reducing so GDP couldn't have grown. That is patently idiotic on his/her part to say so. It's the net exports which matters. ie. X-M value ie the net outflow as we can see from the last bucket.

 

[Nilgiri]

These economist are all from India. Of course they will its good of India growth to protect their rice bowl in India. Do we have some neutral professional assessment?

If you actually cared to read some of their opinions you would have found some neutral even pessimistic ones (because people know India should be growing much faster than this even).

Let us wait for the international "professional" assessment....the news/figures is barely a day old....of course the local reactions are going to be more right now. Let me dig to see if I can find anything else.

The article seems to have been written by a tabloid journalist and not an economist. Otherwise he/she wouldn't have beaten around the bush and attacked the very fundamentals of what comprises a GDP.

The GDP equation is :

Let's have some data for each of these buckets before we can comment !

Exactly, I mentioned earlier he completely excluded investment....because there was not one number there (other than credit based investment for the pvt sector) that suited his agenda.

Like I said earlier, its shameless cherry picking.

 

[PatriotLover]

Point 3, 4 and 5?????? Who believes that these will keep growing domestically forever? May be in my limited knowledge the spare parts industry growth should have been analysed for these????

Yes vehicular growth can stay high for long terms. People need to replace old cars, and as families get richer, they buy more cars per family. But India vehicular sales are decreasing, infact lower than the years it grew at 5%.

These economist are all from India. Of course they will its good of India growth to protect their rice bowl in India. Do we have some neutral professional assessment?

More over she is a manager of a bank, thus she will of ourse say good things to get more money in her bank.

 

[AnnoyingOrange]

As we all know yesterday India released its new GDP data. I was surprised at the 7.4% growth which it reported. It is impossible that India is growing at this rate when the world is slowing down. Here are 11 reasons why the number is fake:

1) Exports have been falling eleven months in a row. In fact, between April and October 2015, exports have fallen by 17.6% to $154.29 billion, in comparison to the same period last year. Between April and October 2014, the exports had stood at $187.29 billion. A greater than 7% economic growth rate with falling exports is a little difficult to believe.

2) Corporate profitability continues to remain subdued. As a recent news-report in the Business Standard points out regarding the profitability for the period July to September 2015: “It was another muted quarter for India Inc, with aggregate profit growth at both the operating and net level growing at only under one per cent over a year-ago period. The sample is of 2,300 companies…The numbers are worse for the benchmark indices such as the Nifty, where operating and net profit are down between three-five per cent over the year-ago quarter, with aggregate numbers below expectations.”

3) Passenger vehicles sales, another good measure of economic recovery, have been subdued through most of this financial year, though there has been some recovery in October 2015, which doesn’t come under the July to September 2015 period, for which the economic growth number has been reported. Between September 2015 and September 2014, passenger vehicles sales went up by only 3.85%.

4) Motorcycle sales, a very good economic indicator in the Indian context, have fallen for most of the financial year, only to have recovered a little in October due to festival season sales. It remains to be seen whether the sales can be sustained for November 2015. Data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) points out that motorcycle sales during the first six months of the year (April to September 2015) were down by 4.06% to 5.36 million units, in comparison to the same period last year.

5) Tractor sales have been falling for thirteen months in a row. Data from the Tractor Manufacturers Association shows that sales have fallen by 20% during the first six months of this financial year (i.e. April to September 2015). This is a clear example of weak agricultural growth.

6) The loan growth of banks continues to remain subdued. The sectoral deployment of credit data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows that bank loans grew by 8.4% between September 2014 and September 2015. In fact, they grew by an even slower 8.1% between October 2014 and October 2015.

7) Along with this, the bad loans of banks continue to pile up. As a recent report in The Indian Express points out: “Already burdened by bad loans, 37 banks, led by public sector ones, have reported a 26.8 per cent rise in non-performing assets (NPAs) over the 12-month period ending September this year.”

The overall non-performing assets of banks as of September 2015 stood at Rs 3,36,685 crore. This was an increase of Rs 71,000 crore, according to numbers put together by credit rating firm CARE.

8) The number of stalled industrial projects went up during the period July to September 2015. As a recent research note by Morgan Stanley points out: “The stock of stalled projects climbed in the September quarter, while existing capacity is being underutilized. This has, not surprisingly, lowered interest in greenfield investments, with industrial credit loan growth stagnating in single-digits.” The bulk of the stalled projects belong to the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. Further, there is a good anecdotal evidence to suggest that small and medium enterprises, a major source of job growth, continue to struggle.

9) The Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan recently pointed out that factories were running 30% below capacity as of now. A research report by DBS points out that the capacity utilisation rate was at 80% in 2011-2012. This suggests a significant slack in the economy. How is manufacturing then growing by 9%, as suggested by the data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation?

10) The real estate sector, a major employer of people, continues to be in the doldrums, with new launches coming down and the number of unsold homes going up.

11) Further, for two years in a row India has had a deficient monsoon. In its end of season report, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the nation’s weather forecaster, stated that “rainfall over the country as a whole was 86% of its long period average (LPA). Thus years 2014 & 2015 was the fourth case of two consecutive all India deficient monsoon years during the last 115 years.”

Then who is asking you to believe it... India will progress despite of Naysayers like you... Jali hai... pata hai... lekin itni jali hai congression ki .. itna pata nahi tha.

 

[ganesh623]

If gst is assed in this parliament session, it is only going to boost he gdp further and consistently.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Economic growth is not related to exports alone. Unlike China and many other countries which are export driven. We have a strong and robest internal economy.

 

[ito]

This is what happens when people who don't have any idea on economics writes about economy.

A country's economy is a complex beast with hundreds of sectors and thousands of sub sectors. If you cherry pick 10 sectors that are doing bad and conclude that all of the economy is doing bad is dishonesty.

If one area that can be the proxy of the heath of an economy is growth in employment rate. Again in India measuring the employment rate is hard as 60% of the economy is unorganized. In this situation, I would depend on statistics revealed by the Government. And it say India is growing by 7.4%.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

Any data on import volume and consumer spending

 

[Providence]

Any data on import volume and consumer spending

Yeah look at some of the leading indicators !

Durable goods volume can be one !

 

[Chika_Pika]

These economist are all from India. Of course they will its good of India growth to protect their rice bowl in India. Do we have some neutral professional assessment?

What do you mean by neutral?? A Butthurt Chinese?
Or a Devastated Pakistani??

 

[Indian Patriot]

I love Patriots, so I am going to tag another Patriot @Indian Patriot pls share some light on this topic.

You don't have brains to debate with him?