Kashmir: If progress is to be made, India must dictate the terms

[Bang Galore]

Kashmir: If progress is to be made, India must dictate the terms

Harsh V Pant


Pakistan has a way of making its presence felt in India’s national security matrix that, much to New Delhi’s chagrin, tends to steal India’s diplomatic thunder.

At a time when India’s prime minister Narendra Modi was trying to project himself as a global statesman, Pakistan decided it must get some attention. So, the Pakistani army did what it does best. It escalated tensions along the border in an attempt to ratchet up pressure on India.

Accusing India of “deliberate and unprovoked violations of the ceasefire agreement and cross-border firing”, Pakistan promptly shot off a letter to the UN secretary general asking for an intervention by the UN Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan. In reply, the UN has merely reiterated that India and Pakistan need to resolve all differences through dialogue.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s powerful army chief Gen Raheel Sharif has suggested that the resolution of the Kashmir issue was imperative for sustainable peace. Gen Sharif said that the people of Kashmir should be allowed to decide their own fate in the light of UN resolutions.

Pakistan is facing multiple crises. Its global isolation is increasing by the day. US forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan and Beijing is increasingly dissatisfied with Islamabad’s attempts at controlling the flow of Islamist extremists into its restless Xinjiang province.

Tensions are also rising on Pakistan’s borders with Iran where Sunni extremists are targeting Iranian border posts, forcing Iranian policymakers to suggest that if Pakistani authorities “cannot control the common border, they should tell us so that we ourselves can take action”.

And the new government in Afghanistan under Ashraf Ghani is likely to go even further in developing close ties with New Delhi. Within Pakistan, Imran Khan is breathing down Nawaz Sharif’s neck and the Pakistan army’s struggle against the domestic Taliban seems to be going nowhere.

All this is happening at a time when there is renewed confidence in India about its future under the Modi government and when the world is ready to look at the Indian story afresh. No wonder, the Pakistani security establishment is nervous about its growing irrelevance – and so once again the issue of Kashmir becomes a rallying cry.

As tensions have escalated along the border, the Modi government has made clear to Pakistan that Indian forces would “make the costs of this adventurism unaffordable”.

This has given the Indian military the operational space to carve out a response that was swift, sharp and effective. Together, the Indian government and the nation’s military have underlined the costs of Pakistan’s dangerous tactics by massive targeted attacks on Pakistani posts along the border.

But this won’t be enough as the Modi government needs a long-term plan to handle Pakistan. India currently hopes that negotiations with Pakistan would ratify the existing territorial status quo in Kashmir.

At its foundation, these are irreconcilable differences. No confidence-building measure is likely to alter this situation. India’s belief has always been that the peace process will persuade Pakistan to cease supporting and sending extremists into India and start building good neighbourly ties. Pakistan, in contrast, has viewed the process as a means to nudge India to make progress on Kashmir, which is a euphemism for Indian concessions.

The choice that India has is not between talking and sulking. Pakistan has continued to manage the appearance of talks with India even as its support for separatism in India continues unabated. India should also continue to talk – there is nothing to lose in having a low-level diplomatic engagement after all – even as it needs to unleash other arrows in its quiver to manage Pakistan.

Smart policy for India means not being stuck between the talking and not-talking binary. It is now for India to dictate the terms for negotiations.

Pakistan’s India obsession is not about Kashmir. The very way Pakistan defines its identity makes it almost impossible that India will ever be able to find agreement with Islamabad. New Delhi should be ready to face this hard reality.

The Modi government is gradually resetting the terms of engagement with Pakistan on Kashmir. It remains to be seen if it will succeed where its predecessors failed.

Harsh V Pant is professor of international relations at King’s College London

Kashmir: If progress is to be made, India must dictate the terms | The National

 

[Quwa]

I disagree. For Kashmir to be resolved, Pakistan needs to behave like an independent state with self-defined vital national interests. I don't mind global isolation. In fact, I welcome it. From the moment Musharraf got Pakistan involved with the U.S did we see a sudden rise in internal security problems. Not only that, but Pakistan lost its hand in Afghanistan and it gradually found itself giving way on Kashmir and the Indus Water Treaty.

It's time Pakistan adopt a hawkish mentality built upon guaranteeing its independence in both territorial and political terms. Despite the country's immense contribution to the U.S War on Terror, it has only been repaid in mistrust and drone strikes by America. Enough. The U.S can be on its own in Afghanistan, we have had enough.

Seal the Western border, leave the U.S and whoever's left in that quagmire to deal with the rest. Seal the border to the north, ensure that China's internal security is guaranteed from our end. As for India, tighten up the eastern front.

As for our foreign relations. There is no doubt backing away from America will result in a 'reset' in Pakistan's relations with a number of country. That's the cost of piggybacking on bigger powers. We will need to invest in building our own political, economic and military relationships with others. For that to happen, we will need an internal cleansing. I say we remove ourselves of the deadweight in PPP, PML, MQM, JI, etc, etc. You fail once, you never be given responsibility again.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Pakistan’s India obsession is not about Kashmir. The very way Pakistan defines its identity makes it almost impossible that India will ever be able to find agreement with Islamabad. New Delhi should be ready to face this hard reality.

If that were actually true, India would have called Pakistan's "bluff" on implementing the UNSC Resolutions years ago. Analysts who bandy about these kinds of canards are essentially those who have reached the limits of their capacity to think beyond the narrow confines created by their "nationalism" - and the constricting nationalism being referred to here is not just that of Indians, but also some in the West, who have chosen "sides" and must validate their chosen "side" by inventing such poppycock (Christine Fair and Bruce Reidel come to mind, for example).

To move beyond the confines of such shallow "analysis" would require them to accept the fact that India's position on Kashmir is wrong, and requires compromise on the part of India, something beyond their intellectual capacities.

 

[Bang Galore]

The point still remains, there is no visible meeting ground between Indian & Pakistani positions. What Pakistan wants, India will not give and Pakistan seems unwilling or unable to settle for less. As I have said before, on either the specific issue of Siachen or the larger issue of Kashmir, Pakistan brings nothing to the table but its demands. Pakistan offers India nothing that India would consider worthwhile. There is simply no way that India will agree to a deal that Pakistan wishes. There was movement on the issue by Musharraf, both with Vajpayee & MMS but both Kayani & the PPP government walked back from those positions (NS wants to go back all the way to the Lahore talks) and consequently there is little hope or interest in India to try anew. This is now a problem that is being looked at only from the management perspective & not from a solution perspective.

 

[rockstar08]

best way to solve Kashmir issue is to give the right to Kashmiri peoples to choose for themselves ..

 

[indushek]

If that were actually true, India would have called Pakistan's "bluff" on implementing the UNSC Resolutions years ago. Analysts who bandy about these kinds of canards are essentially those who have reached the limits of their capacity to think beyond the narrow confines created by their "nationalism" - and the constricting nationalism being referred to here is not just that of Indians, but also some in the West, who have chosen "sides" and must validate their chosen "side" by inventing such poppycock (Christine Fair and Bruce Reidel come to mind, for example).

To move beyond the confines of such shallow "analysis" would require them to accept the fact that India's position on Kashmir is wrong, and requires compromise on the part of India, something beyond their intellectual capacities.

Here lies the core issue you believe Indian position is based on "superiority" and "nationalism bordering zingoism". You will not settle for anything less than Kashmir being given to you completely or as you like to put it given 'Independence'.

Where is the middle ground in this, if Pakistan agrees to status quo and LOC is made the final one it would be seen loosing its face. India will not agree to any change in status quo as the perceived benefits of 'peace' are futuristic and based on hope only. Why would any one accept it leave aside India. Why for that matter would Pakistan agree where the roles to be reversed.

 

[SwAggeR]

How many time we will have to discuss it to reach same conclusions eveytime ?? Diplomacy, UN or Terroism can't pressure India to part with it's Kashmir. Integrity of India is non-negotiable .

Recently Pakistan seems to have taken the refuse of UN , forgetting that Kasmir occupied by it have largely been infiltrated by Punjabi Sunnies in absence of any law like India's article 370 .So chances of resolution is null void, if there were any chances for UN resolution then it existed only during Nehru era . It should have pulled back it's forces and let UN conduct plebiscite.

If Pakistan doesn't respect much recent Shimla agreement then their is no guarantee that it will respect any future agreements. I will suggest India to go back on Indus water treaty if Pakistan repeatedly goes back on Shimla agreement.

 

[zip]

I have to agree with the author ..Kashmir wont solve anything it only shifts the theatre ..Time of independence was brutal for everyone ..rather than taking it as natural during birth of new country people were misguided by leaders and kashmir theatre was a successfully running theatre for many decades ..

 

[SwAggeR]

If that were actually true, India would have called Pakistan's "bluff" on implementing the UNSC Resolutions years ago. Analysts who bandy about these kinds of canards are essentially those who have reached the limits of their capacity to think beyond the narrow confines created by their "nationalism" - and the constricting nationalism being referred to here is not just that of Indians, but also some in the West, who have chosen "sides" and must validate their chosen "side" by inventing such poppycock (Christine Fair and Bruce Reidel come to mind, for example).

To move beyond the confines of such shallow "analysis" would require them to accept the fact that India's position on Kashmir is wrong, and requires compromise on the part of India, something beyond their intellectual capacities.

Narrow confines of Ñationalism ??

How about you and your whole country coming out of still narrower confines of religion ??

 

[Capt.Popeye]

If that were actually true, India would have called Pakistan's "bluff" on implementing the UNSC Resolutions years ago. Analysts who bandy about these kinds of canards are essentially those who have reached the limits of their capacity to think beyond the narrow confines created by their "nationalism" - and the constricting nationalism being referred to here is not just that of Indians, but also some in the West, who have chosen "sides" and must validate their chosen "side" by inventing such poppycock (Christine Fair and Bruce Reidel come to mind, for example).

To move beyond the confines of such shallow "analysis" would require them to accept the fact that India's position on Kashmir is wrong, and requires compromise on the part of India, something beyond their intellectual capacities.

Its quite clear that you have not read or understood the UN resolution/s and what conditions are contained therein............

As for talking with Paksitan; nothing wrong with that idea, I'm all for it.......have "chai-biskoot" discussions now and then, say "hello-goodbye" and move on. Till the next "chai-biskoot, hello-goodbye" parleys. While actively allowing people-to-people discussions!

One thing is now clear: the last of the leadership in India to have any pre-partition, across-the-border ties or connections have gone. Thus leading to the extinction of any emotional baggage, good or bad.
Which is a huge factorial change. Naturally this will get reflected in some change in trajectory, that is simply inevitable.

 

[Storm Force]

Tough times for Pakistan in new world order.

USA India Israelis nexus

Massive growth in India industrial power.

India will dictate terms in Kashmir not Pakistan or united nations.

Priviledges of superior power

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

How about you and your whole country coming out of still narrower confines of religion ??

I agree, Pakistan was not meant to be the kind of theocratic State it currently is by her founders, however, that has nothing to do with the fact that attitudes such as those I referenced in my earlier post are reflective of an inability on the part of analysts to think beyond the confines of their nationalism, which results in them concocting outlandish theories such as those elaborated upon in Fair's "Fighting till the end".

Its quite clear that you have not read or understood the UN resolution/s and what conditions are contained therein............

On the contrary, it is quite clear that you have not read my repeated rebuttals of the Indian canard on the demilitarization conditions contained in the multiple UN Resolutions on Kashmir. Reference my post history and get back to me after you have read them.

Which is a huge factorial change. Naturally this will get reflected in some change in trajectory, that is simply inevitable.

The nonsensical canards concocted by writers such as Pant, Fair and Reidel have nothing to do with "historical baggage" - these canards are simply a reflection of limitations enforced by irrational nationalism.

 

[VCheng]

I disagree. For Kashmir to be resolved, Pakistan needs to behave like an independent state with self-defined vital national interests. I don't mind global isolation. In fact, I welcome it. From the moment Musharraf got Pakistan involved with the U.S did we see a sudden rise in internal security problems. Not only that, but Pakistan lost its hand in Afghanistan and it gradually found itself giving way on Kashmir and the Indus Water Treaty.

It's time Pakistan adopt a hawkish mentality built upon guaranteeing its independence in both territorial and political terms. Despite the country's immense contribution to the U.S War on Terror, it has only been repaid in mistrust and drone strikes by America. Enough. The U.S can be on its own in Afghanistan, we have had enough.

Seal the Western border, leave the U.S and whoever's left in that quagmire to deal with the rest. Seal the border to the north, ensure that China's internal security is guaranteed from our end. As for India, tighten up the eastern front.

As for our foreign relations. There is no doubt backing away from America will result in a 'reset' in Pakistan's relations with a number of country. That's the cost of piggybacking on bigger powers. We will need to invest in building our own political, economic and military relationships with others. For that to happen, we will need an internal cleansing. I say we remove ourselves of the deadweight in PPP, PML, MQM, JI, etc, etc. You fail once, you never be given responsibility again.

You can disagree all you want Sir, but none of things you mention are going to be possible for Pakistan to implement - sealing borders (nope), back away from USA (heck no!), building independent relationships (nope) and removing political parties (nope again).

And lastly do you want to apply your principle of "You fail once, you never be given responsibility again" to the Army too?

 

[MilSpec]

On the contrary, it is quite clear that you have not read my repeated rebuttals of the Indian canard on the demilitarization conditions contained in the multiple UN Resolutions on Kashmir. Reference my post history and get back to me after you have read them.

If you could, please point me towards it, I would like to read it.

 

[Abingdonboy]

If that were actually true, India would have called Pakistan's "bluff" on implementing the UNSC Resolutions years ago.

India can't, the first part of the resolution is that Pakistan removes all their forces from Azad Kashmir, the second step is India reduces their forces to a size dictated by an international arbiter agreed upon by both sides. The second stage can only take place once the first stage has been completed. The ball is well and truly in the Pakistani court and yet you are posting all fingers at India.

It still astounds me how few Pakistanis have actually read the resolutions they brandish at the drop of a hat.