K15 test and Dhanush Test on 14/15/16th March 2016

[PARIKRAMA]

Prediction : K15 test and Dhanush Test on 14/15/16th March 2016

Basis:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
DTG 091002Z ROUTINE
FROM NAVAREA VIII CO-ORDINATOR UNCLAS
TO NAVAREA VIII –180
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIA EAST COAST – BAY OF BENGAL (.) CHARTS 31 351 352 354 INT 706 (.) LAUNCH OF EXPERIMENTAL FLIGHT VEHICLE FROM ITR SCHEDULED FROM

(A) 140230-140630 AND 150830-150930 UTC MAR 16 IN DANGER ZONE BOUNDED BY 20-
48.35N 087-02.59E, 19-26.77N 086-43.12E, 14-53.41N 086-46.39E, 15-01.67N 088-26.75E, 19-
31.57N 087-41.54E, 20-48.75N 087-07.41E (.)

(B) 150530-150830 AND 160530-160930 UTC MAR 16 IN DANGER ZONE BOUNDED BY
18-11.84N 085-44.78E, 18-05.27N 089-17.11E,19-47.78N 089-00.19E,, 18-35.59N 085-40.37E

(.)
2. NO OVER FLIGHT AND SHIPPING PERMITTED IN DANGER ZONE
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 161030 UTC MAR 16
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Comments

• No overflight and shipping implying its a Ballistic Missile test with no safe altitude and will end in sea impact for CEP calculations
• The whole experimental flight is divided into 2 parts
• Part A
  (A) 140230-140630 AND 150830-150930 UTC MAR 16 IN DANGER ZONE BOUNDED BY 20-
  48.35N 087-02.59E, 19-26.77N 086-43.12E, 14-53.41N 086-46.39E, 15-01.67N 088-26.75E, 19-
  31.57N 087-41.54E, 20-48.75N 087-07.41E (.)
• Thats between 14th 0230 - 0630 and 15th 0830 0930 March 2016
• The map is this

• Part B
  (B) 150530-150830 AND 160530-160930 UTC MAR 16 IN DANGER ZONE BOUNDED BY
  18-11.84N 085-44.78E, 18-05.27N 089-17.11E,19-47.78N 089-00.19E,, 18-35.59N 085-40.37E
  (.)
• Thats between 15th 0530 0830 and 16th 0530 0930
• The Map is this

Further Comments

1. Part A is a firing from Kalam Wheeler, Orissa so its an ITR Flight.. The range being 639 km suggests its a BM K15 with full payload and is fired again in depressed Trajectory
2. K15 can be land based Shaurya too.
3. Part B give an option of Prithvi 3/Dhanush Firing.
4. Basis is these 2 maps combining both part a and part b

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Edit: Credit to @The Deterrent For correcting the mistake..

 

[Ankit Kumar]

A successful Dhanush Test from an Indian Navy OPV coming ( Without any pic of course)..... but we all know what happened

 

[Maarkhoor]

@PARIKRAMA
May be the missile failed to achieve desired range and that is why every thing put behind secrecy wall, India never hide such tests in fact always boasted its missile test and there is no reason to test weapons secretly. But may be lame excuse to hide another failure. @The Deterrent

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@PARIKRAMA
May be the missile failed to achieve desired range and that is why every thing put behind secrecy wall, India never hide such tests in fact always boasted its missile test and there is no reason to test weapons secretly. But may be lame excuse to hide another failure. @The Deterrent

Which test? what i am saying is suppose to happen on 14/15/16th.. Thats as per NAVAREA.. i dont understand what you are writing about failed test..Can you pls explain what you are saying..

 

[Maarkhoor]

Which test? what i am saying is suppose to happen on 14/15/16th.. Thats as per NAVAREA.. i dont understand what you are writing about failed test..Can you pls explain what you are saying..

Previous tests of K4 that happened recently, i am talking about that one.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Previous tests of K4 that happened recently, i am talking about that one.

That i dont believe is K4 test as

1. An BM test from Land or sea has to informed to Pakistan 72 hours prior to test
2. Secondly even with a depressed trajectory assuming say its 1/3rd of range or say for convenience sake 1/3 of 3500 km = 1167 Km approx.. Thats not declared in any Navarea warning..
   • Besides such a BM test will not have any safe altitude especially if its a depressed trajectory or a lofted trajectory both ways

I wrote a similar comment in that thread as i still dont think a K4 was tested recently as per New Indian Express..

And i agree with you that if it was a "real" K4 test the media would have gone berserk with accolad-ing the team behind K4 and tom toming its significance..

I did post navarea warning in a sticky thread.. and as per that the very best guess can be this for 8th march is none
Indian Missiles News & Discussions | Page 143

The reason being both cases of 8th had safe flying altitude of 25km and 8kms.. And being a BM, surely ts apogee would be much higher than this even if its depressed trajectory...

As per what i have seen, whenever there is a BM test, there is never any safe altitude... So based on all this, i dont think it was a K4 test.

The other explanation would be a purely ejection test implying its just a check to see that missile tubes underwater being imitated via pontoon is able to separate successfully from the gas chamber ejection system and is able to iginite the rocket motors or not.. If thats the case, we still cant call it a K4 test but rather ejection system test and that will apply safe altitude flying limits surely.

 

[jaiind]

India's Naval doctrine is becoming strong day by day

 

[The Deterrent]

Whatever happened to this one?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Whatever happened to this one?

As on 8th Morning, the Navarea warning file is this as attached.

If the test flight happened on 07th then its fine but as far as i understand the news reports quote 8th and Navarea as on 8th in force did not carry that warning which you have pasted.. So thats why i am saying i don think a missile was tested..

Secondly, logically i dont believe a BM will be tested so near to a shoreline especially if its really a test for validation rather than a proven missile test by SFC for checking the stock..

Correction:
The new indian express says on 7th ..Monday.. so if it has happened on 7th then yes Navarea as on 8th may not show that.. But none of the mainstream PTI or ANI carried that news.. so i doubt it still

 

[Stephen Cohen]

@PARIKRAMA

Can we launch K 4 from CONVENTIONAL submarines

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@PARIKRAMA

Can we launch K 4 from CONVENTIONAL submarines

We have to have SSKs with Vertical Missile Tubes or UVLS fitted into them for such missiles.. Secondly, the BMs normally have a minimum height of 10m - 12 m whereas Scorpene class beam is 6.2 m (20 ft), Type 214 is 20 feet 8 inches (6.3 m), reason being these are small subs of smaller tonnage less than 2000 tonnes.

A type 216 with approx 4000 tones submerged has a beam of 8 meters.. Its a similar beam for Type 218 SG (Singapore)

Even Barracuda has a beam of around 8.8 m or 29 feet.. (conventional one/ SMX)

In short having a missile of length approx 10m -12m requires a submarine which has a beam of approx say 11m to 13m respectively. Thus K4 unless the length is further miniaturised to say under 8 m , i dont see it being deployed in UVLS of SSKs.. In short, same length as Brahmos (8m) /Nirbhay (6m).


The other option is like carrying external missile banks in external hull which soviet use to do .. 4 missiles in each side in 2 banks so a total of 8 missiles but purely Anti shipping mode.. More suited in extreme case as it does add to disadvantages in terms of detection.

Secondly, the diameter of K4 is 1.3 m whereas these CMs are more like 0.52-0.6m.. So again a limitation comes there..


The most important point is we are expecting a UVLS system in P75I which is yet not chosen, So among the present submarines its not possible..if we have a missile (BM/CM) whose width can fit into either a 533mm /650mm torpedo tube perhaps a a missile can be planned to fire from surface or may be if there is a chance of any ejection system from submerged depth, the same can be planned Like Klub LACM types..

 

[The Deterrent]

As on 8th Morning, the Navarea warning file is this as attached.

If the test flight happened on 07th then its fine but as far as i understand the news reports quote 8th and Navarea as on 8th in force did not carry that warning which you have pasted.. So thats why i am saying i don think a missile was tested..

Secondly, logically i dont believe a BM will be tested so near to a shoreline especially if its really a test for validation rather than a proven missile test by SFC for checking the stock..

Correction:
The new indian express says on 7th ..Monday.. so if it has happened on 7th then yes Navarea as on 8th may not show that.. But none of the mainstream PTI or ANI carried that news.. so i doubt it still

The warning was valid from 7th through 9th March. My speculation is it that it was postponed.

Anyhow, it seems you misinterpreted the coordinates of "B" warning in this thread. I plotted them and it showed this:

Which is very likely a ship-launched Dhanush/Prithvi-III test flight of 350km range.

Furthermore, warning "A" corresponds to a launch site of Wheeler Island (not Chandipur), and is very likely to be the land-based Shaurya or possibly Agni-I.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The warning was valid from 7th through 9th March. My speculation is it that it was postponed.

Anyhow, it seems you misinterpreted the coordinates of "B" warning in this thread. I plotted them and it showed this:
View attachment 297749

Which is very likely a ship-launched Dhanush/Prithvi-III test flight of 350km range.

Furthermore, warning "A" corresponds to a launch site of Wheeler Island (not Chandipur), and is very likely to be the land-based Shaurya or possibly Agni-I.View attachment 297750

Done sir.. edited the same in the #1 post and thread title..

Checked again in my google earth.. a bit surprised which coordinate got goofed up.. will be more careful with the coordinates in future..