Jordan is talking, but is anyone listening?

[Ahmed Jo]

This article was written in 2010 but it could've have been written yesterday. Four years later, just under a week ago, Jerusalem was on the brink of a third intifada, illegal settlements are still being built, and the voice of reason continues to be ignored. Jordan will not be responsible for the fallout of this recklessness.


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Jordan's King Abdullah has not been shy about expressing his thoughts about Israel of late. "If we hit the summer and there's no active [peace] process," he warned the other day, "there's a very good chance for conflict." Calling Jordan's ties with Israel the worst they have been since 1994, the Hashemite king warned that Israel's very future is in jeopardy if it does not move toward peace. And yet few seem especially concerned by these warnings from the Arab leader who has traditionally been Israel's closest partner in the Middle East. They should be.

Discounting Jordanian warnings is a time-honored tradition. In his book, The Arab Center,former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher recounts a telling anecdote about his time as Jordan's first ambassador to Israel, following the 1994 Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty. In early 1995 Muasher met with the then-leader of the Israeli opposition, Likud Chairman Binjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu urged a Likud-Jordan relationship that included collusion against the creation of a Palestinian state. When Muasher rejected this, emphatically noting that Jordanian policy supported a Palestinian state, Netanyahu's rather smug response was "Mr. Ambassador, I think I understand the Jordanian position better than you do." Netanyahu was wrong then, and it seems that he and his government might be making the same mistake once again.

It is a mistake to assume that the Jordanians never mean what they say. Their pronouncements are at times treated with polite interest and then studiously ignored. Yet this is a country that warned the United States that invading Iraq in 2003 would be destabilizing, lead to more terrorism and militancy, and ensure the rise of Iranian regional power and a strategic imbalance in the Gulf. Check, check, and check.

Unfortunately, the tendency to misread Jordanian policy appears to be alive and well, especially among the right in Israel. The danger of Netanyahu's coalition misreading current conditions is a danger not only for Israel, but for the Palestinians, for Jordan, and for the United States as well. Jordan is a close ally of the United States and one of only two Arab states to have a peace treaty with Israel. So when this center of moderation and caution issues the occasional dire warning to its allies, friends, or neighbors, it is worth listening to.

The Jordanians have consistently argued -- for a decade -- that the real issue of insecurity in the region is not Iraq, but Israel and Palestine. And the Jordanians are increasingly blunt about the urgency of a solution, and the dire consequences, including even more regional wars, if a meaningful settlement is not reached. At the Arab League Summit in Sirte, Libya, Jordan's King Abdullah underscored the importance of the Arab Peace Initiative (in Beirut, 2002) and warned against "wasting this last opportunity" for a Palestinian-Israeli peace.

He also lashed out against Israeli measures to demographically change East Jerusalem, while expanding settlements in the West Bank, thereby make a peaceful solution less and less possible.

This was not just ideological grandstanding in the inter-Arab political sphere. Indeed, the king made similar and even stronger comments in a meeting of the editors of Jordan's major newspapers and also in an unusually harsh assessment in his interview with the Wall Street Journal. To both the American and Jordanian press, Abdullah warned of the dangers of a "third Intifada," while describing Jerusalem as a "time bomb," and threats of an Israeli strike on Iran as a "Pandora's box." He even suggested that Israel's current international relations are worse than those of North Korea. While the last comparison may be too harsh, the themes were consistent to multiple audiences: Patience is not just wearing thin; it is simply gone. People across the region are through waiting for open-ended negotiations and want to see a meaningful endgame that delivers a Palestinian state and Israeli security; in short, the two-state solution about which there is so much consensus, and so little progress.

Many Jordanians fear that complete collapse of the peace process might lead to an Israeli attempt to once again revive the idea that Jordan should become the Palestinian state, which is a longstanding idea on the Israeli right wing. Israel's recent policy shifts, suggesting the looming expulsion of potentially thousands of Palestinians, has only added to this worry. King Abdullah has warned repeatedly that "there is no such thing as a 'Jordan option.'" Neither the Jordan option nor a Jordanian-administered West Bank are real options. The Jordanians support a two-state solution and see a Palestinian state as the best guarantor of the regime's long-term survival. For the East Bank Jordanians who dominate Jordan's government, intelligence services, and armed forces, the collective attitude toward the "Jordan option" can be summarized as "not now, not ever." Nor does Jordan want to take over control of the West Bank to facilitate an Israeli withdrawal: "We will not agree to replace Israeli tanks in the West Bank with Jordanian tanks, "the king said, "and we will not allow Israel to solve the problems of its occupation of the West Bank and the resulting suffering and injustice at Jordan's expense."

This is not the first post-peace-treaty rift in Jordanian-Israeli relations. Earlier iterations share the common theme of Likud-led governments, and especially Netanyahu's leadership. The most spectacular, of course, came with the attempted assassination of Hamas leader Khaled Meshal in Amman, a provocation which outraged and humiliated then-King Hussein. Jordanian officials grumble in private that Netanyahu, who was prime minister when King Abdullah II succeeded his long-serving father, King Hussein, disrespected the new monarch and was patronizing in his interactions with the new king. He seemed to think, yet again, that he knew more about Jordan's "actual" positions than the king himself did. He was wrong in 1995, wrong in 1999, and appears to be wrong now.

As the situation on the ground gets worse and the prospects of negotiations grow dimmer, that leaves the king's recent question to Israel (via his Wall Street Journal interview) valid and even urgent: "Wouldn't it be better today when you're in a stronger position to make peace not only with your neighbors but with the whole Arab-Islamic world than kicking this problem down the road two or three years where your options become reduced?" That's a good question. And with no illusions about the difficulties involved (including dealing with the Hamas factor) and in no way minimizing Israel's real security concerns, it should also be taken as friendly and even sage advice. Maybe it's the Jordanians who have a better idea of Israel's real interests than Prime Minister Netanyahu does. In any case, when an ally least known for hyperbole increasingly issues dire warnings about the dangers of a third Intifada or worse, while also offering real solutions, it may be time for Israel, the United States, and others to listen up.

(Credit: Curtis Ryan)

 

[al-Hasani]

King Abdullah has always been one of the few sane voices out there. He is highly well-liked in his ancestral homeland of Hijaz.

You should watch the Kings speech in the UN. Last part is about Palestine-Israel.

In many ways Jordan continues to be a key player in the region. I feel that regional Arab countries, especially neighbors (KSA says hello) should do more to help Jordan out as that country hosts more refugees per capita than any other country I can think of.

If I had any power I would help Jordan as one of my first tasks. If there is one country outside of KSA that we Hijazi Hashemites have a weak place for it is Jordan and its people. I wish nothing more for Jordan than peace, progress and harmony and I am saddened by the difficulties that Jordan is facing. If Jordan survives this current crisis and the repercussions of the events in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq you guys will be ready to face almost every challenge.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

King Abdullah has always been one of the few sane voices out there. He is highly well-liked in his ancestral homeland of Hijaz.

You should watch the Kings speech in the UN. Last part is about Palestine-Israel.

In many ways Jordan continues to be a key player in the region. I feel that regional Arab countries, especially neighbors (KSA says hello) should do more to help Jordan out as that country hosts more refugees per capita than any other country I can think of.

If I had any power I would help Jordan as one of my first tasks. If there is one country outside of KSA that we Hijazi Hashemites have a weak place for it is Jordan and its people. I wish nothing more for Jordan than peace, progress and harmony and I am saddened by the difficulties that Jordan is facing. If Jordan survives this current crisis and the repercussions of the events in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq you guys will be ready to face almost every challenge.

Thank you for your kind words I did see the King's speech in the UN (I actually watch every speech he makes). As for the current crisis(es) at hand, I have no doubt that Jordan will survive them just as I have no doubt that Saudi Arabia will not fall to sectarianism as other neighboring countries have. As long as we have pragmatic leadership, we'll make it through. Unfortunately, it seems like all but few arab countries are facing immediate and significant problems right now.

 

[al-Hasani]

Thank you for your kind words I did see the King's speech in the UN (I actually watch every speech he makes). As for the current crisis(es) at hand, I have no doubt that Jordan will survive them just as I have no doubt that Saudi Arabia will not fall to sectarianism as other neighboring countries have. As long as we have pragmatic leadership, we'll make it through. Unfortunately, it seems like all but few arab countries are facing immediate and significant problems right now.

Today more than almost ever before cooperation and solidarity are key words. As I said if I had any power or if millions like me had any power (young people wanting the best for the region and Arab world) we would do certain things much differently and I believe also better on some fronts. At least I believe so. For instance I would like to see KSA hosting some of the Syrian etc. refugees that Jordan has difficulties with hosting. After all we are just right next to you. Similarly Iraqi refugees whether nearby Anbaris or nearby Iraqi Shia Arabs in the South if that becomes necessary.

In any case a solution in Syria must be found and this way Lebanon will clam down too and the burden on you guys will weaken too. Nowadays Syria and Iraq are interconnected. Once that is dealt with and what we see in Yemen and Libya the focus can once again entirely be on the Palestine-Israel conflict and hopefully the Arab Peace Initiative will become a reality in our life time. That conflict is still a haunting face in our region. Imagine the potential of all those countries if stable? Immense is the word.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

Today more than almost ever before cooperation and solidarity are key words. As I said if I had any power or if millions like me had any power (young people wanting the best for the region and Arab world) we would do certain things much differently and I believe also better on some fronts. At least I believe so. For instance I would like to see KSA hosting some of the Syrian etc. refugees that Jordan has difficulties with hosting. After all we are just right next to you. Similarly Iraqi refugees whether nearby Anbaris or nearby Iraqi Shia Arabs in the South if that becomes necessary.

In any case a solution in Syria must be found and this way Lebanon will clam down too and the burden on you guys will weaken too. Nowadays Syria and Iraq are interconnected. Once that is dealt with and what we see in Yemen and Libya the focus can once again entirely be on the Palestine-Israel conflict and hopefully the Arab Peace Initiative will become a reality in our life time.

I read somewhere that the Iraqi special forces are preparing a major assault on militants in the north with help from the U.S. And other coalition countries, I hope it will be successful. I mean enough is enough, someone has to take out the trash already. There is also talks of a GCC-Egypt effort to defeat terrorists operating in Yemen and Libya, I hope that also comes to light. As for the Arab peace initiative, it really depends on the Israeli goverrnment's actions right now. It's becoming less and less likely that a Palestinian state will be established with east Jerusalem as its capital, and like the article says, there is no "Jordan option", not now, not ever.
Also, I believe the KSA is already financially supporting our economy and they also helped fund the azraq refugee camp. Of course, every capable arab state has a responsibility to do what it can to solve the refugee crisis since these refugees are our own brothers and sisters.

 

[al-Hasani]

I read somewhere that the Iraqi special forces are preparing a major assault on militants in the north with help from the U.S. And other coalition countries, I hope it will be successful. I mean enough is enough, someone has to take out the trash already. There is also talks of a GCC-Egypt effort to defeat terrorists operating in Yemen and Libya, I hope that also comes to light. As for the Arab peace initiative, it really depends on the Israeli goverrnment's actions right now. It's becoming less and less likely that a Palestinian state will be established with east Jerusalem as its capital, and like the article says, there is no "Jordan option", not now, not ever.

Well ultimately ISIS and other such groups will be defeated. I never doubted that they are only on loan. Of course you will always have such misguided people around that have nothing to lose but I think that it will be limited to sporadic hit and run attacks. Anyway it's difficult to predict. Yes, but it's something that all Arab states have to work together on and that's where the Arab League and other Arab forums come into place.

Well, which I also believe and which is very bad news for the region. I honestly don't know what the alternative is. The "Jordan option" was always bogus and equaling that with Palestine. On the other hand (read worst case scenario) Gaza joining Egypt as some federal republic and West Bank joining Jordan as something similar might be the best viable option.

Honestly speaking I am for the creation of regional Arab blocs uniting into organizations (economic, political, military etc.) and ultimately federal states in a bigger single state. I think that this is the only way forward if you want a truly independent policy and standing in the world rather than there being even more Arab states in the future. KSA for instance, like many other Arab states, could theoretically be composed of 4-5 states based on ancient civilizations/regions but every sane person can see that KSA as a single state in its current form has a much bigger standing than possible 4-5 independent states would ever dream of having.

You get what I am trying to say here? I seriously believe that our leaders should work in that direction but the absolute power is making many rulers power-hungry. Sadly.

Anyway got to go to bed. I have classes tomorrow. Nice talking with you as usual.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

Well ultimately ISIS and other such groups will be defeated. I never doubted that they are only on loan. Of course you will always have such misguided people around that have nothing to lose but I think that it will be limited to sporadic hit and run attacks. Anyway it's difficult to predict. Yes, but it's something that all Arab states have to work together on and that's where the Arab League and other Arab forums come into place.

Well, which I also believe and which is very bad news for the region. I honestly don't know what the alternative is. The "Jordan option" was always bogus and equaling that with Palestine. On the other hand (read worst case scenario) Gaza joining Egypt as some federal republic and West Bank joining Jordan as something similar might be the best viable option.

Honestly speaking I am for the creation of regional Arab blocs uniting into organizations (economic, political, military etc.) and ultimately federal states in a bigger single state. I think that this is the only way forward if you want a truly independent policy and standing in the world rather than there being even more Arab states in the future. KSA for instance, like many other Arab states, could theoretically be composed of 4-5 states based on ancient civilizations/regions but every sane person can see that KSA as a single state in its current form has a much bigger standing than possible 4-5 independent states would ever dream of having.

You get what I am trying to say here? I seriously believe that our leaders should work in that direction but the absolute power is making many rulers power-hungry. Sadly.

Anyway got to go to bed. I have classes tomorrow. Nice talking with you as usual.

That future is up to us to make. In 10 to 13 years, I'll have finished my undergraduate and graduate studies and will hopefully begin my political career in Jordan.

Nice talking to you as well.

 

[al-Hasani]

That future is up to us to make. In 10 to 13 years, I'll have finished my undergraduate and graduate studies and will hopefully begin my political career in Jordan.

Nice talking to you as well.

Exactly. What you said in your first sentence is the essence of our discussion. What is certain is that changes are necessary and rest assured that they WILL arrive.

I wish you all the best of luck in that department and I hope that you will succeed. Work towards my ideas though.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

Exactly. What you said in your first sentence is the essence of our discussion. What is certain is that changes are necessary and rest assured that they WILL arrive.

I wish you all the best of luck in that department and I hope that you will succeed. Work towards my ideas though.

I will but first I will focus on economic progress above all else. Maybe Jordan's economy will be much better in more than a decade's time, as long as the current leaders make sound policies.

 

[al-Hasani]

I will but first I will focus on economic progress above all else. Maybe Jordan's economy will be much better in more than a decade's time, as long as the current leaders make sound policies.

Yes, the economy is probably the most important thing to focus on first. Apropos the economy then how is it going with the economical reforms? Or do the various refugees take all of the attention almost? Jordan has the potential. That's important and encouraging.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

Yes, the economy is probably the most important thing to focus on first. Apropos the economy then how is it going with the economical reforms? Or do the various refugees take all of the attention almost? Jordan has the potential. That's important and encouraging.

The economic reforms themselves are going good but they'll take a while to 'yield fruit', so to speak. A lot of people are currently suffering from high prices and lack of employment. Last thing i read about hosting the refugees is that it's costing the taxpayers more than 5 billion dollars a year(I read that a figure a couple months ago so I don't know what it is now). Some of that money was supposed to go to a development project in Aqaba known as marsa zayed (it's a UAE based company that was doing the construction).
Anyway, sorry for the late reply.

 

[al-Hasani]

The economic reforms themselves are going good but they'll take a while to 'yield fruit', so to speak. A lot of people are currently suffering from high prices and lack of employment. Last thing i read about hosting the refugees is that it's costing the taxpayers more than 5 billion dollars a year(I read that a figure a couple months ago so I don't know what it is now). Some of that money was supposed to go to a development project in Aqaba known as marsa zayed (it's a UAE based company that was doing the construction).
Anyway, sorry for the late reply.

Wow, that's a HUGE number for any country even more so Jordan.

What would you do (if you had any power) to create more jobs and create economic growth? The GDP of Jordan should be much bigger IMO.

Also for how long is Jordan expected to host all of those millions of refugees? How many of the hundred of thousands of Iraqi refugees that arrived after 2003 have left the country now?

No need to apologize, man. My reply is much more late for instance.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

Wow, that's a HUGE number for any country even more so Jordan.

What would you do (if you had any power) to create more jobs and create economic growth? The GDP of Jordan should be much bigger IMO.

Also for how long is Jordan expected to host all of those millions of refugees? How many of the hundred of thousands of Iraqi refugees that arrived after 2003 have left the country now?

No need to apologize, man. My reply is much more late for instance.

Well I'm not naive enough to think that I would do much better than the people currently in charge of Jordan's economy. The current PM, for example, is an expert with many, many years of experience in this field and yet even he can't come up with a magic solution to lower unemployment. But if I had to say, I would pursue economic policies like that of Erdogan when he first assumed his position which are basically to take loans from the IMF and to initiate large infrastructure projects (such as highways, trains, and airports) and eventually pay back the loans using the returns from those projects. Jordan had already started doing this a couple years ago (the loans were smaller than those of turkey) but now, due to recent developments in the region, much of that money is being spent on defense and hosting the refugees so the returns on investment projects (such as Marsa Zayed) will not come for quite some time and thus it will take longer for Jordan to pay back its loans to the IMF which will continue to impose higher prices on Jordanians until it gets its money back. As it stands, things are very messy. And what's unfortunate is that many Jordanians believe the government is raising prices because they are corrupt and want to get rich even though they're just complying with IMF standards. The GCC, however, is much more lenient with their standards on the 5 billion dollar + grant fund created for Jordan. The main goal for them is to fund those planned infrastructure projects (that the government currently can't) so they can keep the Jordanian economy afloat and the country stable (as they have a vested interest in this). At this point, we're just waiting for those projects to be finished so they will yield profits and attract outside business and investors thus, creating jobs for Jordanians and stimulating the economy. Had it not been for the gulf grant fund, things would be.. much worse. Sorry, this has turned into a very long post but knowing these things is vital to understanding how the situation in Jordan got to where it is and where it will be in the near future.

What was your other question? Oh right. The refugees. They will stay as long as their countries are in turmoil but they'll go back eventually (hopefully within this decade). Initially, many of the Iraqis who came in 2003 had gone back in 2010 but now, those same people are coming back to Jordan and are bringing new people with them as well.

I expect things to be much different when I'm finally involved in making policy.

 

[al-Hasani]

Well I'm not naive enough to think that I would do much better than the people currently in charge of Jordan's economy. The current PM, for example, is an expert with many, many years of experience in this field and yet even he can't come up with a magic solution to lower unemployment. But if I had to say, I would pursue economic policies like that of Erdogan when he first assumed his position which are basically to take loans from the IMF and to initiate large infrastructure projects (such as highways, trains, and airports) and eventually pay back the loans using the returns from those projects. Jordan had already started doing this a couple years ago (the loans were smaller than those of turkey) but now, due to recent developments in the region, much of that money is being spent on defense and hosting the refugees so the returns on investment projects (such as Marsa Zayed) will not come for quite some time and thus it will take longer for Jordan to pay back its loans to the IMF which will continue to impose higher prices on Jordanians until it gets its money back. As it stands, things are very messy. And what's unfortunate is that many Jordanians believe the government is raising prices because they are corrupt and want to get rich even though they're just complying with IMF standards. The GCC, however, is much more lenient with their standards on the 5 billion dollar + grant fund created for Jordan. The main goal for them is to fund those planned infrastructure projects (that the government currently can't) so they can keep the Jordanian economy afloat and the country stable (as they have a vested interest in this). At this point, we're just waiting for those projects to be finished so they will yield profits and attract outside business and investors thus, creating jobs for Jordanians and stimulating the economy. Had it not been for the gulf grant fund, things would be.. much worse. Sorry, this has turned into a very long post but knowing these things is vital to understanding how the situation in Jordan got to where it is and where it will be in the near future.

What was your other question? Oh right. The refugees. They will stay as long as their countries are in turmoil but they'll go back eventually (hopefully within this decade). Initially, many of the Iraqis who came in 2003 had gone back in 2010 but now, those same people are coming back to Jordan and are bringing new people with them as well.

I expect things to be much different when I'm finally involved in making policy.

Thanks for your detailed reply bro. Much appreciated.

Do you have any links in Arabic or English to articles about the economic situation of Jordan and about the reforms initiated etc. Also what about investments in Jordan as a foreigner? I mean if I one day decided to invest in Jordan would it be easy for me to do so?

@BLACKEAGLE

Bro, if you can help with this and got the time then please reply. Thanks.

 

[Ceylal]

As long as we have pragmatic leadership, we'll make it through.

Big difference between an arab of service and pragmatic leadership

Unfortunately, it seems like all but few arab countries are facing immediate and significant problems right now.

True there, the "return of the crank shaft" (retour de manivelle) will hit Jordan And KSA square in the face. Neither of you should be proud of what you respective countries have done to Libya, Syria and Iraq.