Japan’s Economy Shrank Sharply. Now Comes the Coronavirus.

[striver44]

It's not about focus on japan.
But Japan economy before this outbreak, is not good. They just hike the taxes, and after that comes the storm that do much damage to their economy. After that comes the effect of this virus.

U read too much China collapsing theory

Move where? Indonesia? Vietnam?

C'mon dude. There is many reasons why they choosing China even with MUCH HIGHER labor wages than third world countries like India or indonesia (which have MUCH LOWER labor cost)

First, China have 5x times bigger market than Indonesia. With every person have 3x more times purchasing power than indonesian ($10,000 vs $3,000 GDP percapita)

Second, China have much much better infrastructure and not separated by sea (Indonesian is an islands)
That's mean Logistic cost in indonesia is much much higher than in China for same distance.

Third, China have better Industrial Capability than Indonesia. You need to know take an example of smartphone, it consist thousands of component. In China they have thousands factory that produce all of that components.
That's why production cost in China is much lower than indonesia even they have higher labor wages.

If they choose to build that in indonesia, they need to import all of that components from factory in China, then re export their products back to China again. What a waste of money and time ! A disaster !

Fourth, China have much better and skilled workforce than Indonesia. Which can support High-End Industry, they need high skilled technician to produce their High Quality products.


Learn economy better before talk to me, kids Educate yourself more


There is many reasons why Elon Musk choose China and NOT Indonesia supah powah to build their High End Cars. Elon musk also choose China for their Engineering and Design Center for all Asian market.
Do u think Elon musk is stupid, lol. Keep barking kids


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You simply skipped reading the article hehehe.

I know because it hurts lol.
As i said coronavirus will have a very long term effect ,people are now moving to "de-sinicize" their supply chain out of china. They realized that they cant put all their eggs in one basket anymore. Means there will be less jobs for chinese and it will hurt chinese competitiveness to the western world., you might lose your status as the "world workshops".
I mean is not impossible that tesla cancels its gigafactories in china for this very reason.

We, southeast asians are just taking the fruit out of everything that hurts chinese industry.
So butthurt that you actually compare china to indonesia, your american counterparts (your real peer competitor) are laughing their asses.

Just imagine the cost of all those factories and ships forced to a standstill, for a month LoL.

China is not happy, xi is not happy, and neither you are happy hehehe.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.in...ists-expelled-sick-man-asia-a9343721.html?amp

Which Indonesian would put a dumb quote like '犯我华夏 虽远必诛 Those who dare to offend Chinese Nation must be punished no matter how far they are'?

He's just like all ordinary chinese diaspora. His grandpa probably fled china in sandals using boats while chairman mao is busy starving half of chinese population. Now that china is a prosperous country he wants to be accepted as part of china. So he tried so hard to defend everything china.
Because he knows that real chinese in china doesnt accept foreign chinese, moreover if the chinese cant actually speak mandarin hahaha

 

[Mista]

He's just like all ordinary chinese diaspora. His grandpa probably fled china in sandals using boats while chairman mao is busy starving half of chinese population. Now that china is a prosperous country he wants to be accepted as part of china. So he tried so hard to defend everything china.
Because he knows that real chinese in china doesnt accept foreign chinese, moreover if the chinese cant actually speak mandarin hahaha

The Chinese Indonesians I know IRL can barely speak Chinese, and they aren't the biggest fan of the PRC. Yet this guy 99% of his post is about China and even at expense of mocking his own country.

 

[striver44]

The Chinese Indonesians I know IRL can barely speak Chinese, and they aren't the biggest fan of the PRC. Yet this guy 99% of his post is about China and even at expense of mocking his own country.

He really should point all his anger to his grandpa for leaving china LOL.

 

[beijingwalker]

The Chinese Indonesians I know IRL can barely speak Chinese, and they aren't the biggest fan of the PRC. Yet this guy 99% of his post is about China and even at expense of mocking his own country.

I met some Chinese Indonesians when I lived in US, They can speak perfect Mandarin Chinese, but what puzzles me is that they can't read Chinese.

 

[Daniel808]

You simply skipped reading the article hehehe.

I know because it hurts lol.
As i said coronavirus will have a very long term effect ,people are now moving to "de-sinicize" their supply chain out of china. They realized that they cant put all their eggs in one basket anymore. Means there will be less jobs for chinese and it will hurt chinese competitiveness to the western world., you might lose your status as the "world workshops".
I mean is not impossible that tesla cancels its gigafactories in china for this very reason.

We, southeast asians are just taking the fruit out of everything that hurts chinese industry.
So butthurt that you actually compare china to indonesia, your american counterparts (your real peer competitor) are laughing their asses.

Just imagine the cost of all those factories and ships forced to a standstill, for a month LoL.

China is not happy, xi is not happy, and neither you are happy hehehe.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-wall-street-journal-journalists-expelled-sick-man-asia-a9343721.html?amp


He's just like all ordinary chinese diaspora. His grandpa probably fled china in sandals using boats while chairman mao is busy starving half of chinese population. Now that china is a prosperous country he wants to be accepted as part of china. So he tried so hard to defend everything china.
Because he knows that real chinese in china doesnt accept foreign chinese, moreover if the chinese cant actually speak mandarin hahaha

You are too narrow minded dude
u still not answer my question in other thread, If one of your family member getting Successfull in their project and business, u will sad or happy to see that?

There is an informative article for you

Trade war: Can other Asian countries replace China as the world's factory?
There are however some limitations to how much production can be moved out of China.

Through years of establishing China as "the world's factory", it has nurtured a highly trained, skilled and disciplined workforce.The infrastructure, roads, ports and integrated logistical support is second to none in terms of its ability to handle the volume of goods produced. This makes China an efficient and effective production centre. Furthermore, China's workforce is more than double that of all Southeast Asia combined. So, even if there are cost benefits of moving production out of China, there simply isn't enough capacity elsewhere to takeover what China can produced

https://www.business-standard.com/a...na-as-the-world-s-factory-118110500099_1.html

If u lucky, maybe u can get some piece of cake.
Some low-value and labor-intensive work in industries like garments and footwear, will searching for new hub because rising wages in China, mostly to Low Wages countries like indonesia, Vietnam, or India.

And if u doing good, Low Tech Consumer Electronics can also move their factory to cheaper third world countries, like Cheap semi automatic washing machine.
Meanwhile last week I check in supermarket in Jakarta more expensive and high tech washing machine-Fully Automatic (Top load and front load) mostly made by China or Thailand.


Sorry I stand with truth.
If wrong I said wrong, if bad I said bad, if good I'll say good, if true I'll say true.

But I'm agree with you in one thing, that China is on another level if compared to Indonesia

 

[Viva_Viet]

I met some Chinese Indonesians when I lived in US, They can speak perfect Mandarin Chinese, but what puzzles me is that they can't read Chinese.

Thats normal.Many oversea VNese like member Viet may speak perfect Vnese, but can not read VNese cos they talk with their dad/mom in Vnese but they just dont write anything in Vnese.

For Daniel, I think hes native Indonesian, but just like our member AViet, he believe that support/help CN now, then CN may help ID/VN in the future. (Actually some Vnese think like that in real life, they think CN will be the big boss of the world soon, but most of ppl thinking like thats are just shoes workers, working in CN before nCov, having very low IQ )

 

[Daniel808]

I met some Chinese Indonesians when I lived in US, They can speak perfect Mandarin Chinese, but what puzzles me is that they can't read Chinese.

It's a bullshit he talk here.
He is local indonesian of course he don't know about that, Chinese indonesian here only talk mandarin chinese with other Chinese people.

This is the truth about chinese indonesian
https://amp.scmp.com/lifestyle/fami...chinese-indonesians-are-learning-mandarin-and

Many Chinese indonesian today send their children to learn about Mandarin Chinese.
In Jakarta older generation mostly cannot because of racist old policy from govt that banned all chinese language (1967-1998)

But today it's different, many Chinese Indonesian send their children to learn mandarin chinese. Even outside jakarta, like North sumatra, Riau, Western kalimantan, central and eastern java, many chinese indonesian there can speak mandarin chinese because old govt have loosely racist policy there.
My wife is from Riau, and she can speak mandarin chinese fluently since childhood

But one thing we chinese indonesian have in common, we are happy to see China success in recent years. Congrats China
Hardwork will never lie to you, Jia you !

 

[Mista]

I met some Chinese Indonesians when I lived in US, They can speak perfect Mandarin Chinese, but what puzzles me is that they can't read Chinese.

I know of many Chinese Indonesians here in Singapore (schools, army, cousin-in-law etc). Most of them could speak Mandarin as they learnt it in schools but they aren't exactly fluent in the language.

All of them whom I know speak either Hokkien or Bahasa Indonesia to their family members. Mandarin isn't a mother tongue for them.

In terms of their fluency levels, Bahasa>Dialect>=English>Mandarin.

It would be weird if they can speak Mandarin but can't read Chinese, as they should have learn Mandarin in school and not at home.

 

[Daniel808]

Yen's safe-haven status under siege as Japan's economy sputters
Reuters | Feb 20, 2020 05:31AM ET

By Stanley White and Tom Westbrook

TOKYO/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The yen's status as a safe haven is coming under pressure as unease grows about the rising number of coronavirus cases in Japan, against the backdrop of a stuttering domestic economy.

Japan's currency tumbled to a nine-month low against the dollar and faced a barrage of selling against other currencies on Wednesday, in what traders and analysts say points to a flight of large portfolio investors from yen markets.

That runs counter to the long-standing assumption that Japanese funds would repatriate their money during a true global crisis, pushing the yen higher.

"You see any potential concern about the virus situation playing out in gold...and you're not seeing the same moves in the yen," said Shafali Sachdev, head of FX for Asia at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP) Wealth Management in Singapore.

"Nearness to China and dependence on China in this current situation have not helped the yen as a risk-off," she said, adding that Japan's exposure to the virus outbreak and recent weak economic data had exacerbated the concerns.

The yen was quoted at 111.36 to the dollar on Thursday following Wednesday' decline of 1.3%, its biggest daily drop in five months.

Japan's currency also nursed big losses against the euro, the pound and the Australian dollar. At the same time, gold, which normally moves in concert with the yen, rose 0.6%.

Analysts were quick to pin the move to large portfolio shifts out of yen-denominated assets - most likely by Japan's giant government pension funds - amid worries about its economy and the spread of the coronavirus.

The outbreak started in China, but its spread through a cruise ship moored in Tokyo means Japan now has well over half of the known cases outside China.

There are already fears it will cast a pall over the Olympic Games in Tokyo, due to begin late in July and bring a hoped-for boost to the national economy and morale.

Should it start to spread through Japan's population, however, the fallout would almost certainly be enough to tip the world's third largest economy, which shrank unexpectedly hard last quarter, into recession.

Some 3 trillion yen ($27 billion) in net foreign bond purchases by Japanese investors in the first two weeks of February seems to underscore the lack of confidence in domestic investments.

The move lower in global interest rates has undermined the yen's attractiveness as a "funding currency," or one cheap to borrow for use in buying riskier investments.

That weakens another string of the yen's safe-haven bow because the reversal of such trades in times of trouble was thought to be another factor to support its value.

"If nobody is using yen as a funder anymore, maybe there is no reason for the yen to trade as a safe haven," said Brent Donnelly, spot FX Trader at HSBC.

"Price action in the past year or two has raised the question," he said, pointing out the yen's muted response in recent months to tension on the Korean peninsula, trade-war spats and January's U.S.-Iran flashpoint in the Middle East.

"The price action overnight adds some urgency to the idea that we have crossed over into a new yen regime."

https://m.investing.com/news/econom...nder-siege-as-japans-economy-sputters-2089344

This is really not a good news
As a fellow east asian, I hope better future for them and all of us

Japan need to make a structural reform and address their fundamental economic problem asap

 

[antonius123]

Why focus on japan? China is the real deal , now many business are çonsidering to de-sinicize their supply chain. Probably to southeast asia

China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

Its financial markets may be even more dangerous than its wildlife markets.



By
Walter Russell Mead
Feb. 3, 2020 6:47 pm ET

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A Chinese woman wears a protective mask in Beijing, Feb. 3.
PHOTO: KEVIN FRAYER/GETTY IMAGES

The mighty Chinese juggernaut has been humbled this week, apparently by a species-hopping bat virus. While Chinese authorities struggle to control the epidemic and restart their economy, a world that has grown accustomed to contemplating China’s inexorable rise was reminded that nothing, not even Beijing’s power, can be taken for granted.

We do not know how dangerous the new coronavirus will be. There are signs that Chinese authorities are still trying to conceal the true scale of the problem, but at this point the virus appears to be more contagious but considerably less deadly than the pathogens behind diseases such as Ebola or SARS—though some experts say SARS and coronavirus are about equally contagious.

China’s initial response to the crisis was less than impressive. The Wuhan government was secretive and self-serving; national authorities responded vigorously but, it currently appears, ineffectively. China’s cities and factories are shutting down; the virus continues to spread. We can hope that authorities succeed in containing the epidemic and treating its victims, but the performance to date has shaken confidence in the Chinese Communist Party at home and abroad. Complaints in Beijing about the U.S. refusing entry to noncitizens who recently spent time in China cannot hide the reality that the decisions that allowed the epidemic to spread as far and as fast as it did were all made in Wuhan and Beijing.




The likeliest economic consequence of the coronavirus epidemic, forecasters expect, will be a short and sharp fall in Chinese economic growth rates during the first quarter, recovering as the disease fades. The most important longer-term outcome would appear to be a strengthening of a trend for global companies to “de-Sinicize” their supply chains. Add the continuing public health worries to the threat of new trade wars, and supply-chain diversification begins to look prudent.

Events like the coronavirus epidemic, and its predecessors—such as SARS, Ebola and MERS—test our systems and force us to think about the unthinkable. If there were a disease as deadly as Ebola and as fast-spreading as coronavirus, how should the U.S. respond? What national and international systems need to be in place to minimize the chance of catastrophe on this scale?

Epidemics also lead us to think about geopolitical and economic hypotheticals. We have seen financial markets shudder and commodity prices fall in the face of what hopefully will be a short-lived disturbance in China’s economic growth. What would happen if—perhaps in response to an epidemic, but more likely following a massive financial collapse—China’s economy were to suffer a long period of even slower growth? What would be the impact of such developments on China’s political stability, on its attitude toward the rest of the world, and to the global balance of power?

China’s financial markets are probably more dangerous in the long run than China’s wildlife markets. Given the accumulated costs of decades of state-driven lending, massive malfeasance by local officials in cahoots with local banks, a towering property bubble, and vast industrial overcapacity, China is as ripe as a country can be for a massive economic correction. Even a small initial shock could lead to a massive bonfire of the vanities as all the false values, inflated expectations and misallocated assets implode. If that comes, it is far from clear that China’s regulators and decision makers have the technical skills or the political authority to minimize the damage—especially since that would involve enormous losses to the wealth of the politically connected.

We cannot know when or even if a catastrophe of this scale will take place, but students of geopolitics and international affairs—not to mention business leaders and investors—need to bear in mind that China’s power, impressive as it is, remains brittle. A deadlier virus or a financial-market contagion could transform China’s economic and political outlook at any time.

Many now fear the coronavirus will become a global pandemic. The consequences of a Chinese economic meltdown would travel with the same sweeping inexorability. Commodity prices around the world would slump, supply chains would break down, and few financial institutions anywhere could escape the knock-on consequences. Recovery in China and elsewhere could be slow, and the social and political effects could be dramatic.

If Beijing’s geopolitical footprint shrank as a result, the global consequences might also be surprising. Some would expect a return of unipolarity if the only possible great-power rival to the U.S. were to withdraw from the game. Yet in the world of American politics, isolation rather than engagement might surge to the fore. If the China challenge fades, many Americans are likely to assume that the U.S. can safely reduce its global commitments.

So far, the 21st century has been an age of black swans. From 9/11 to President Trump’s election and Brexit, low-probability, high-impact events have reshaped the world order. That age isn’t over, and of the black swans still to arrive, the coronavirus epidemic is unlikely to be the last to materialize in China.

Opinion: A Communist Coronavirus
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Opinion: A Communist Coronavirus
Wonder Land: The coronavirus is a metaphor for two political ideas that are incompatible with the realities of the modern world: China’s Communist Party and isolationism. Image: Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images

Agree with you on 1 point: that Corona has impacted China economy.

But the OP has a strong point: that Corona impact on Japan economy much more than on China due to more fragile foundation of Japan economy, at least at the moment.

 

[striver44]

Agree with you on 1 point: that Corona has impacted China economy.

But the OP has a strong point: that Corona impact on Japan economy much more than on China due to more fragile foundation of Japan economy, at least at the moment.

Correct. But just to remind you its china who is on the race to become a global economic superpower not japan.
Its interesting to see where this leads to. Who knows.

You are too narrow minded dude
u still not answer my question in other thread, If one of your family member getting Successfull in their project and business, u will sad or happy to see that?

Yes but the difference is what role that you play when your family are succesful?

Starting with them from down to top

Or

Cheering them when they manage to get on top and leaving them while things are hard (like your grandpa ) lol


Your choice girl.

 

[antonius123]

It's a bullshit he talk here.
He is local indonesian of course he don't know about that, Chinese indonesian here only talk mandarin chinese with other Chinese people.

This is the truth about chinese indonesian
https://amp.scmp.com/lifestyle/fami...chinese-indonesians-are-learning-mandarin-and

Many Chinese indonesian today send their children to learn about Mandarin Chinese.
In Jakarta older generation mostly cannot because of racist old policy from govt that banned all chinese language (1967-1998)

But today it's different, many Chinese Indonesian send their children to learn mandarin chinese. Even outside jakarta, like North sumatra, Riau, Western kalimantan, central and eastern java, many chinese indonesian there can speak mandarin chinese because old govt have loosely racist policy there.
My wife is from Riau, and she can speak mandarin chinese fluently since childhood

But one thing we chinese indonesian have in common, we are happy to see China success in recent years. Congrats China
Hardwork will never lie to you, Jia you !

Actually not that many Indonesian chinese speak mandarin, or even dialect; me and many of my friends not. Some of them even speak Indonesian dialect like Javanese rather than chinese dialect.

 

[Daniel808]

Correct. But just to remind you its china who is on the race to become a global economic superpower not japan.
Its interesting to see where this leads to. Who knows.


Yes but the difference is what role that you play when your family are succesful?

Starting with them from down to top

Or

Cheering them when they manage to get on top and leaving them while things are hard (like your grandpa ) lol


Your choice girl.

Like I said, your mind is too narrow.

If in your family, your older brother immigrate to other country to help family economy and to not become a burden for your family.
No matter what passport they have, the children of your older brother is still have family relation with your sons and daughter.

You will curse your older brother for that?
Lol like I said, your mind is too shallow kids

Actually not that many Indonesian chinese speak mandarin, or even dialect; me and many of my friends not. Some of them even speak Indonesian dialect like Javanese rather than chinese dialect.

In big cities yes, but you come to smaller town like Pekanbaru, Bagan siapi api, Tanjung Balai, Singkawang, etc.
Almost every chinese indonesian there have multilingual capability, they can speak mandarin chinese also hokkien or hakka.

My wife is from riau province, so I know that when we visit her hometown.

But what make me smile more, in big cities like jakarta and surabaya many Chinese indonesian give their children Mandarin Chinese Education.
That's include my sons and my daughter, they attend international school here and choose Mandarin Chinese as their concentration.
Besides, they learn from their mother also

 

[striver44]

Like I said, your mind is too narrow.

If in your family, your older brother immigrate to other country to help family economy and to not become a burden for your family.
No matter what passport they have, the children of your older brother is still have family relation with your sons and daughter.

You will curse your older brother for that?
Lol like I said, your mind is too shallow kids

Well that depends little girl , your grandpa left china probably because chairman mao is busy making oridinary chinese (like your grandpa) walking skeletons instead. So he left the country not to help the "family economy" . Rather for the safety of his own life. .

 

[Daniel808]

Well that depends little girl , your grandpa left china probably because chairman mao is busy making oridinary chinese (like your grandpa) walking skeletons instead. So he left the country not to help the "family economy" . Rather for the safety of his own life. .

Hahahaha keep barking kids

My family come to Dutch East Indies administered by Netherlands Colonial Government before most Chinese people know who is Chairman Mao