Japan’s child population at record low after falling for 38th consecutive year

[Pakhtoon yum]

Dont mess with the birth rate, make the state better for the people. Limiting the population to give a sense of betterment is shortlived and destructive to the whole society, in general. These states shall be an example to all.

 

[Suika]

Sensationalizing news articles. Japan's fertility rate has been improving. More measures have been introduced recently and there's a feeling of new Japanese pride under new Reiwa era. So the combination of those should boost the rate higher in the next 10 years. The fertility rate might stabilize to where the population hangs at around 100-110 million. Well I hope at least. At any rate, there's a dozen other countries with a poorer fertility rate. ROK's current rate is well below Japan's record low in 2005.

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/合計特殊出生率

 

[kris]

Japan wants technicians and nurses, large-scale immigration is hardly allowed.

At a later date when population drops even further they will have to allow others too

 

[CHN Bamboo]

说的没错，卫计委为了自己乌纱帽一直虚报生育率，危言耸听，预测生育率还能比印度高一倍呢。

中国1990年生育率就降到更替水平以下了，现在已经过去30年了，人口结构已经变得不能再畸形了，只要再过些年，老人大批死去，也就是中国人口崩盘的时候了。

计生委之前一直靠计划生育赚钱，超生罚款都进了他们的荷包，不用上缴中央，自然是要欺瞒上级和民众来让自己赚黑心钱。而且要是全面放开计划生育想怎么生就怎么生，他们的权力不就没了吗？中央和民众被这些人蒙蔽了十多年，而现在他们还想阻止全面放开

以及

近几年曝光了美国上世纪七八十年代利用中国重返联合国契机，推动中国实行“种族颠覆政策”。
基辛格在上个世纪七八十年代鼓动联合国旗下诸多基金会资助中国境内人口计生课题，从而影响中国计生政策三十年，基辛格接受CNN采访的视频，他肯定的回应主持人说，中国在21世纪不会取代美国的全球霸主地位，因为中国人口规模本世纪内将急剧缩水，以及相伴而来的老龄化社会。

中国恐怕要步日本后尘了，而很多民众到现在都没意识到接下来十年到二十年我们要面对的是什么级别的危机。计生委和外国ngo把中央都忽悠瘸了，人口现状成了现在这样，以后还拿什么超美？

恕我直言，中国的中央除了发展经济和科学技术的部门，其他部门频频搞出nc操作，中央还被忽悠的不轻。

 

[Jlaw]

Japan's gonna be running out of people..

Doubt it. You be long dead and Japan will still have a sizable population. If you produce, your off spring will be long dead and Japan will still have a good sizable population

 

[Type59]

Not all doom and gloom. Japanese youth have less competition in job market.

 

[Sharky]

Need an immediate enforcement of one child policy in India. There should be forced abortion like in China of anyone if found otherwise.

 

[Mista]

恕我直言，中国的中央除了发展经济和科学技术的部门，其他部门频频搞出nc操作，中央还被忽悠的不轻。

中国中央高官都是在文革时期长大的，思维也深受苏联影响吧，相信经济要计划，人口也要计划。还记得前几年读过一则新闻，因为一胎化有一位妇女怀孕7个月被拉出去强行堕胎。7个月了啊，已经是一条小生命，但因为被砖家提倡的人口计划而被毁了。

https://baike.baidu.com/item/安康孕妇强制引产事件

 

[Fledgingwings]

In the west they been brainwashed by the Kosher media not to have kids

They,ll realize its consequences when its late enough.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

China still has the world biggest population by far, the population downturn can be easily fixed by just one generation due to China's massive base population, but it's debated if China should adopt laws to encourage birth giving.

Umm.. We are talking here about per capita figures. The absolute size of the population doesn't matter. In fact with the large size of the population, only larger schemes will be required.

That means you simply don't understand the crux of the issue.

The issue here is aging population, not shrinking population. Japan's population is almost twice of the UK's, how many people do they need? It's about the structure of the population, not size of the population.

What they are facing now is an increasing elderly dependency ratio; not enough young people to support the elderly. Their pension and healthcare are facing strains and the state has to allocate a higher percentage of budget to support the elderly every year if they don't want to cut pension/healthcare spending.

Exactly.

That's exactly what I m talking about , to produce young population, due to China's big population base, it's much more easier for China to produce young population by put in place encouraging laws, which China hasn't due to the controversial debate.

Again, no. We are talking here about per capita measures. Absolute size DOESN'T matter.

Huh?

It's not the number of young people, it's the proportion of young people. Big population base also means big number of elderly to support.

Exactly.

Yes, the proportion, can be fixed in one generation or two if the government put in the policy to make it happen, China does things different from the west.

Don't underestimate the magnitude of the problem. And China hasn't even realized the problem yet. Leave alone fixing it.

人口专家谈鼓励生育:中国有可能彻底放开计划生育吗?
http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/gncj/2018-11-20/doc-ihmutuec1754722.shtml

Do away with family plan policies all together.

Doing away with family planning won't fix anything.

Even if fertility restrictions are now fully liberalized, the decline in fertility is still inevitable.

Think about when our country allowed people to have a second child a few years ago.
----

Do you know the census data in 2000?
According to the census results, the total fertility rate in that year was only 1.22. That is to say, every couple in the country has only 1.22 children on average. At that time, senior officials were alert to the one-child policy that had been implemented for 20 years.

Family planning departments, on the other hand, have artificially raised the data to 1.8 on the grounds that many over-births do not register and statistics are largely underreported. Although there were some omissions at that time, it was really inconceivable to think that 40% of them had been omitted.

At that time, the Statistical Bureau and a number of informed cadres and experts questioned this. In response to doubts, Zhang Weiqing, director of the Family Planning Commission, explained: "according to the opinions of most scholars, the total fertility rate in our country should be between 1.7 - 1.8. This is a data that is scientifically calculated. It is not what anyone says, nor is it the data that I personally say."

Ten years later, when the population census was conducted again in 2010, the actual fertility rate in 2000 was less than 1.4, totally negating the 1.8 published at that time.

If we took 1.4 as a consensus at that time, we would surely relax the fertility policy and increase the number of newborns in time. The crisis of declining labor force may begin to ease after 2020.

Following the compilation of data from the 2010 census, it has become a consensus to relax the population policy.

And then, the Family Planning Commission and experts once again misled the public and the leadership.

卫计委言之凿凿所说的是，实施单独两孩政策，每年将会新增出生人口约200万。2013年单独二孩政策已经开始实施后，才改口说不到200万。

2014年，单独二孩政策实施满一年后，全国新增出生人数仅47万，事实证伪了计生委在政策实施前的预测。

2015年，全面放开二孩政策时，国家卫计委副主任王培安主持预测放开二孩后的出生人数（见下表）：

2017年实际出生1723万人。

For 17 years, experts from the Family Planning Commission have made wrong predictions every time.

Are they just dumb or have any other purpose? Obviously, the Family Planning Commission & experts have been always lying for its own benefit. 却导致整个国家的人口分布变得极其差劲，这些人应该被挂路灯。

Now let's not say if it's possible to completely lift the birth restrictions.

After many years of family planning, Chinese families have become accustomed to this model and only want to have one child, so they concentrate all the best resources on this child. It can be said that Chinese children have basically enjoyed education investment far beyond the level of economic development. Parents also feel that such investment in education is justified.

为什么放开二胎会有很多人说生不起？因为我们的理念已经习惯了一个孩子的刚性成本是多么高昂并且还在以匪夷所思的速度增长，去年学钢琴十级还是标配今年额外还有小学就讲一口流利英语。
如果按60年代的标准养小孩，现在的城市家庭夫妇再生四个五个都养得起，但是刚性成本在那卡住了喉咙，没人愿意降低标准求数量。
现在就算完全开放生育政策已经没有什么用了，很多城市家庭两个都不生，除非中国人的收入能高到养几个小孩且都享受好的教育一点都不吃力的程度。:p

Cliff-type population decline(*断崖式人口减少) is inevitable for us.

迷信宏观调控的人群都对有形的手过度乐观了，总以为改变一两个指标，一两项政策，偌大的社会就会急速的按照你的规划来发生变化。
其实社会的惯性非常巨大，要克服社会的惯性需要消耗的能量不是随便能承受的，轻易都能动摇国本。
同时，一项政策逐渐落地的过程，伴随它的各项政策和社会习惯理念也全部调整了，这些东西也没法轻易变。

Exactly. These family planning officials messed up whole of China's population policy for well over a decade to remain in power. They should be executed for this.