Japan’s child population at record low after falling for 38th consecutive year

[CHN Bamboo]

If they don't import

Japan wants technicians and nurses, large-scale immigration is hardly allowed.

 

[Mista]

if the government put in the policy to make it happen

like?

 

[beijingwalker]

like?

人口专家谈鼓励生育:中国有可能彻底放开计划生育吗?
http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/gncj/2018-11-20/doc-ihmutuec1754722.shtml

Do away with family plan policies all together.

 

[Sine Nomine]

Muslim countries need to learn from Japan, China, South Korea, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and I can go on and on.

Low fertility rate would be disastrous for Muslim countries like Turkey, Iran, Morrocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and so on.

Turkey's Erdogan and Iran's Ayatuallah Khamanei already know it as their countries are facing a possible demographic disaster worse than Japan and Russia (if things don't improve). That's why both Turkey and Iran are desperately trying to increase their fertility rates.

Japan and Russia were rich and/or industrial giants relative to outside world when the demographic winter struck them.

Muslim countries I mentioned above are no way near being the industrial or financial giants relative to outside world, and if they are struck with demographic demise while still in their "developing" phase, then it'd be an absolute disaster.

Most Muslim countries have next 20-25 years to reverse the trends and maintain healthy fertility rates.....if they do not, they'll become old, and stagnant societies with no dynamism and below average economic and technological outputs (Unlike Europe, Russia, Japan, Korea, and China etc during their demographic winter).

Most laymen and people outside the field won't know it, but demographic projections for Muslim countries like Turkey are actually worse than Russia (even though perception is that Russia is very old, and dying while Turkey is young )

Rate of birth in some Muslim countries like Pakistan is abnormal.

 

[AUz]

Rate of birth in some Muslim countries like Pakistan is abnormal.

LOL!

No, Pakistan’s birth rate is quite normal. Only “abnormal” demographic phenomenon in Muslim world happened in countries like Iran where population growth fell so astonishingly fast (which is very abnormal and unhealthy).

Sub Saharan Africa is only region of the world that has abnormal population growth (they are growing too fast and that’s very unhealthy too! No wonder they are the poorest in whole world)

I’m a statistician with background in demographics. Trust me, I know what I’m talking about

Most people only get to read sensationalist headlines about the topic so I understand why you have such warped view of the things.

 

[Mista]

人口专家谈鼓励生育:中国有可能彻底放开计划生育吗?
http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/gncj/2018-11-20/doc-ihmutuec1754722.shtml

Do away with family plan policies all together.

Lol, that same guy isn't optimistic that China can recover the TFR to 2.1 even with incentives and no family planning policies. And that's why he's advocating to abolish all family planning policies ASAP.

http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20180717/16389335_0.shtml

 

[Yankee-stani]

LOL!

No, Pakistan’s birth rate is quite normal. Only “abnormal” demographic phenomenon in Muslim world happened in countries like Iran where population growth fell so astonishingly fast (which is very abnormal and unhealthy).

Sub Saharan Africa is only region of the world that has abnormal population growth (they are growing too fast and that’s very unhealthy too! No wonder they are the poorest in whole world)

I’m a statistician with background in demographics. Trust me, I know what I’m talking about

Most people only get to read sensationalist headlines about the topic so I understand why you have such warped view of the things.

Pakistan birth rate 50 years ago was much closer to Sub Saharan levels much of Asia as well exception was Japan they started declining in 1970,what Pakistan needs is equitable distribution of its population I mean for crying out loud Balochistan is our largest province why not move the folks in the overpopulated cities to the west I know it's a troubled province but if we can get massive investments there no problems in my opinion

Iran is interesting case they are one of the few nations to have declined in population but to have regrowth this proves that you can still grow a population unlike mass importation of foreigners Iran decline started in the 1990s but it started to grow again in late 2010s

I know folks hate Israel here and I hate them too but their growth patterns for a developed nation is interesting but most attribute to high growth in the Mirzahi Jewish,And influx of Jews from the USSR,mix in with Arabs interesting basketcase @AUz

 

[AUz]

Pakistan birth rate 50 years ago was much closer to Sub Saharan levels much of Asia as well exception was Japan they started declining in 1970,what Pakistan needs is equitable distribution of its population I mean for crying out loud Balochistan is our largest province why not move the folks in the overpopulated cities to the west I know it's a troubled province but if we can get massive investments there no problems in my opinion

Iran is interesting case they are one of the few nations to have declined in population but to have regrowth this proves that you can still grow a population unlike mass importation of foreigners Iran decline started in the 1990s but it started to grow again in late 2010s

Most Balochistan is inhabitable lol

Punjab with its rivers and crops is a natural geography for population to grow. That’s why most people are concerned there. Same in Egypt. Most population is concentrated by Nile. It’s natural and happens in every country.

You can’t just move hundreds of millions of people into barren lands for “equitable” distribution.

Also, Iranian population is growing since 1990’s but the rate has fallen significantly. We already know Iran’s population will start to decrease because the 1980’s birth cohort is not replaceable by the cohorts coming after it. Hence, when Iranians of 1980 cohort starts dying, there won’t be enough people to replace them.

Study population pyramids if you are interested in demographics. It will give you some grasp on demographics.

 

[Yankee-stani]

Sub Saharan Africa is only region of the

I’m a statistician with background in demographics. Trust me, I know what I’m talking about

Most people only get to read sensationalist headlines about the topic so I understand why you have such warped view of the things.[/QUOTE]

I think the same way the problem is the media in Pakistan is probably the most dishonest in the world Pakistan did have family planning policies in 1960s and 1970s where they tried encourage families to have two children I think the problem Pakistan has is not equitable distribution of its population we need to spread around folks all over the provinces build medium tier cities so overcrowding can lessen in Karachi Lahore and Isb

Most Balochistan is inhabitable lol

Punjab with its rivers and crops is a natural geography for population to grow. That’s why most people are concerned there. Same in Egypt. Most population is concentrated by Nile. It’s natural and happens in every country.

You can’t just move hundreds of millions of people into barren lands for “equitable” distribution.

Also, Iranian population is growing since 1990’s but the rate has fallen significantly. We already know Iran’s population will start to decrease because the 1980’s birth cohort is not replaceable by the cohorts coming after it. Hence, when Iranians of 1980 cohort starts dying, there won’t be enough people to replace them.

Study population pyramids if you are interested in demographics. It will give you some grasp on demographics.

In a way you could be correct on Balochistan but I think the problem is politics the Govt does not want to enrage the Baloch population

 

[Sine Nomine]

LOL!

No, Pakistan’s birth rate is quite normal. Only “abnormal” demographic phenomenon in Muslim world happened in countries like Iran where population growth fell so astonishingly fast (which is very abnormal and unhealthy).

Sub Saharan Africa is only region of the world that has abnormal population growth (they are growing too fast and that’s very unhealthy too! No wonder they are the poorest in whole world)

I’m a statistician with background in demographics. Trust me, I know what I’m talking about

Most people only get to read sensationalist headlines about the topic so I understand why you have such warped view of the things.

Population of a region in Pakistan just got doubled in less then two decades.
Afg has one of the fastest growing population on planet.

 

[Fledgingwings]

This subject always makes me laugh.west is far more developed and can afford to have plenty of people but they dont.east on the other hand is working its way towards progress and development but its level of growth is different in different countries.but if there is one thing they are good at is multiplying themselves in numbers faster than the entire west can multiply their weapons.

 

[Yankee-stani]

This subject always makes me laugh.west is far more developed and can afford to have plenty of people but they dont.east on the other hand is working its way towards progress and development but its level of growth is different in different countries.but if there is one thing they are good at is multiplying themselves in numbers faster than the entire west can multiply their weapons.

In the west they been brainwashed by the Kosher media not to have kids

 

[CHN Bamboo]

人口专家谈鼓励生育:中国有可能彻底放开计划生育吗?
http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/gncj/2018-11-20/doc-ihmutuec1754722.shtml

Do away with family plan policies all together.

Even if fertility restrictions are now fully liberalized, the decline in fertility is still inevitable.

Think about when our country allowed people to have a second child a few years ago.
----

Do you know the census data in 2000?
According to the census results, the total fertility rate in that year was only 1.22. That is to say, every couple in the country has only 1.22 children on average. At that time, senior officials were alert to the one-child policy that had been implemented for 20 years.

Family planning departments, on the other hand, have artificially raised the data to 1.8 on the grounds that many over-births do not register and statistics are largely underreported. Although there were some omissions at that time, it was really inconceivable to think that 40% of them had been omitted.

At that time, the Statistical Bureau and a number of informed cadres and experts questioned this. In response to doubts, Zhang Weiqing, director of the Family Planning Commission, explained: "according to the opinions of most scholars, the total fertility rate in our country should be between 1.7 - 1.8. This is a data that is scientifically calculated. It is not what anyone says, nor is it the data that I personally say."

Ten years later, when the population census was conducted again in 2010, the actual fertility rate in 2000 was less than 1.4, totally negating the 1.8 published at that time.

If we took 1.4 as a consensus at that time, we would surely relax the fertility policy and increase the number of newborns in time. The crisis of declining labor force may begin to ease after 2020.

Following the compilation of data from the 2010 census, it has become a consensus to relax the population policy.

And then, the Family Planning Commission and experts once again misled the public and the leadership.

卫计委言之凿凿所说的是，实施单独两孩政策，每年将会新增出生人口约200万。2013年单独二孩政策已经开始实施后，才改口说不到200万。

2014年，单独二孩政策实施满一年后，全国新增出生人数仅47万，事实证伪了计生委在政策实施前的预测。

2015年，全面放开二孩政策时，国家卫计委副主任王培安主持预测放开二孩后的出生人数（见下表）：

2017年实际出生1723万人。

For 17 years, experts from the Family Planning Commission have made wrong predictions every time.

Are they just dumb or have any other purpose? Obviously, the Family Planning Commission & experts have been always lying for its own benefit. 却导致整个国家的人口分布变得极其差劲，这些人应该被挂路灯。

Now let's not say if it's possible to completely lift the birth restrictions.

After many years of family planning, Chinese families have become accustomed to this model and only want to have one child, so they concentrate all the best resources on this child. It can be said that Chinese children have basically enjoyed education investment far beyond the level of economic development. Parents also feel that such investment in education is justified.

为什么放开二胎会有很多人说生不起？因为我们的理念已经习惯了一个孩子的刚性成本是多么高昂并且还在以匪夷所思的速度增长，去年学钢琴十级还是标配今年额外还有小学就讲一口流利英语。
如果按60年代的标准养小孩，现在的城市家庭夫妇再生四个五个都养得起，但是刚性成本在那卡住了喉咙，没人愿意降低标准求数量。
现在就算完全开放生育政策已经没有什么用了，很多城市家庭两个都不生，除非中国人的收入能高到养几个小孩且都享受好的教育一点都不吃力的程度。:p

Cliff-type population decline(*断崖式人口减少) is inevitable for us.

迷信宏观调控的人群都对有形的手过度乐观了，总以为改变一两个指标，一两项政策，偌大的社会就会急速的按照你的规划来发生变化。
其实社会的惯性非常巨大，要克服社会的惯性需要消耗的能量不是随便能承受的，轻易都能动摇国本。
同时，一项政策逐渐落地的过程，伴随它的各项政策和社会习惯理念也全部调整了，这些东西也没法轻易变。

 

[Mista]

Even if fertility restrictions are now fully liberalized, the decline in fertility is still inevitable.

Think about when our country allowed people to have a second child a few years ago.
----

Do you know the census data in 2000?
According to the census results, the total fertility rate in that year was only 1.22. That is to say, every couple in the country has only 1.22 children on average. At that time, senior officials were alert to the one-child policy that had been implemented for 20 years.

Family planning departments, on the other hand, have artificially raised the data to 1.8 on the grounds that many over-births do not register and statistics are largely underreported. Although there were some omissions at that time, it was really inconceivable to think that 40% of them had been omitted.

At that time, the Statistical Bureau and a number of informed cadres and experts questioned this. In response to doubts, Zhang Weiqing, director of the Family Planning Commission, explained: "according to the opinions of most scholars, the total fertility rate in our country should be between 1.7 - 1.8. This is a data that is scientifically calculated. It is not what anyone says, nor is it the data that I personally say."

Ten years later, when the population census was conducted again in 2010, the actual fertility rate in 2000 was less than 1.4, totally negating the 1.8 published at that time.

If we took 1.4 as a consensus at that time, we would surely relax the fertility policy and increase the number of newborns in time. The crisis of declining labor force may begin to ease after 2020.

Following the compilation of data from the 2010 census, it has become a consensus to relax the population policy.

And then, the Family Planning Commission and experts once again misled the public and the leadership.

卫计委言之凿凿所说的是，实施单独两孩政策，每年将会新增出生人口约200万。2013年单独二孩政策已经开始实施后，才改口说不到200万。

2014年，单独二孩政策实施满一年后，全国新增出生人数仅47万，事实证伪了计生委在政策实施前的预测。

2015年，全面放开二孩政策时，国家卫计委副主任王培安主持预测放开二孩后的出生人数（见下表）：

2017年实际出生1723万人。

For 17 years, experts from the Family Planning Commission have made wrong predictions every time.

Are they just dumb or have any other purpose? Obviously, the Family Planning Commission & experts have been always lying for its own benefit. 却导致整个国家的人口分布变得极其差劲，这些人应该被挂路灯。

Now let's not say if it's possible to completely lift the birth restrictions.

After many years of family planning, Chinese families have become accustomed to this model and only want to have one child, so they concentrate all the best resources on this child. It can be said that Chinese children have basically enjoyed education investment far beyond the level of economic development. Parents also feel that such investment in education is justified.

为什么放开二胎会有很多人说生不起？因为我们的理念已经习惯了一个孩子的刚性成本是多么高昂并且还在以匪夷所思的速度增长，去年学钢琴十级还是标配今年额外还有小学就讲一口流利英语。
如果按60年代的标准养小孩，现在的城市家庭夫妇再生四个五个都养得起，但是刚性成本在那卡住了喉咙，没人愿意降低标准求数量。
现在就算完全开放生育政策已经没有什么用了，很多城市家庭两个都不生，除非中国人的收入能高到养几个小孩且都享受好的教育一点都不吃力的程度。:p

Cliff-type population decline(*断崖式人口减少) is inevitable for us.

迷信宏观调控的人群都对有形的手过度乐观了，总以为改变一两个指标，一两项政策，偌大的社会就会急速的按照你的规划来发生变化。
其实社会的惯性非常巨大，要克服社会的惯性需要消耗的能量不是随便能承受的，轻易都能动摇国本。
同时，一项政策逐渐落地的过程，伴随它的各项政策和社会习惯理念也全部调整了，这些东西也没法轻易变。

说的没错，卫计委为了自己乌纱帽一直虚报生育率，危言耸听，预测生育率还能比印度高一倍呢。

2014年之所以只实行单独二孩政策,是因为主流人口学家预测,如果全面放开二孩,生育率将反弹到4.4、4.5,每年将出生4700万、4995万人;即便实行单独二孩政策,生育率也将反弹到2.4。于是十八届三中全会决定先实行单独二孩。当时国家卫计委预测,生育率将反弹到1.8以上。2015年是单独二孩出生高峰年,“小普查”证实生育率只有1.05,而不是1.8,更不是2.4。易富贤感叹,“中国人口政策的智库体系存在‘致命’的缺陷”。

2016年之所以只实行全面二孩政策,是因为国家卫计委在2015年预测,实行全面二孩政策后,2016年、2017年、2018年的生育率将达到1.63、2.0、2.1,到2050年还有1.72。但是2016年的年度抽样调查显示,生育率只有1.24;2017年的出生人数比2016年还少3.5%,那么生育率只有1.2左右,不是2.0,更不是4.4。

但实际上，中国人口政策一直被严重高估的预测所误导。比如，宋健在1980年的百年人口预测报告认为：如果不实行计划生育，中国人口会在2050达到40亿。又如，2000年人口普查数据显示当年生育率仅有1.22，但把大幅调高后的1.8作为人口政策的基本依据达10年之久；权威的《中国人口发展报告2011/12》预测全面放开二胎后的头几年，生育率会大幅反弹到4.4以上；而中国人口学会会长翟振武则预测年出生人口峰值会达到4950万等等。有一点可以肯定，官方从未警示过中国面临低生育率危机。

根据国家统计局的数据，中国2010到2014年的生育率分别为1.18、1.04、1.26、1.24、1.28，平均生育率仅1.2，即使取最高值也只有1.28。但2015年11月5日国家卫计委基层指导司司长杨文庄，依然声称实际生育率介于1.5到1.6。如果说生育率确实有这么高，那意味着2015年耗资不菲的人口小普查所得出的1.05的数据就漏算了1/3的婴儿；普查机构是不是应该为这么大的漏报比例承担责任？

由于都是基于抽样，再加上各种宏观因素影响，各年生育率会有一定波动性，但不可能会相差1/3。问题并不是国家统计局抽样调查的漏报，而是计划生育部门以漏报为理由一而再、再而三地大幅调高生育率数据，严重误导决策层和民众。上个月，湖北宜昌市卫计委等部门联合发出提倡生育二孩的公开信后，我们就关注过当地的生育数据。2015年8月宜昌进行了一项大规模的生育调查；结果显示，当地2015年总和生育率仅有0.81。宜昌的调查是基于30%的育龄妇女，抽样比例是一般生育率调查的30倍，应当非常准确。

宜昌是一个地级市，包括5个县，其中还有少数民族地区，该地的城市化率还略低于全国平均水平。考虑到这些因素，如果说宜昌的生育率仅有0.81，那全国1.05的生育率并不离奇。宜昌的数据也暗示，国家统计局根据人口普查和每年抽样调查所公布的数据，并不像计划生育部门一直宣称的那样严重高估了生育率；而后者对生育率的调整则是刻意的误导。而且，2015年的数据是来自抽样比例较高的小普查，按理应该比之前的几年更准确。

 

[lcloo]

Aibo and foreign workers will flood the old folk's homes in Japan.