The Deterrent
SENIOR MEMBER
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- Jan 7, 2011
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DG ISPR's relevant remarks:
1. IAF intended to intrude at Lahore/Sialkot and Bahawalpur/Okarasectors simultaneously, met by CAP units on the Pakistani side of the border. However no intrusions took place in those sectors.
2. A third, larger formation approached from Tangdhar and intruded over the Muzaffarabad sector, 4-5NM across LoC. Upon being challenged, they released their weapons payload (4x) on a trajectory, which landed in an unpopulated forested area close to Jabba.
3. During this episode, it was difficult to assess damage and hence engage the enemy. The IAF did not engage PAF and retreated, therefore was not engaged.
4. The forces on ground later assessed what happened exactly. We will retaliate against this act of aggression.
Suggests that diversion tactics were employed to lure the CAP units away, however it seems was met by enough amount of PAF interceptors. The IAF strategy seems to be a repeat of the 2008 intrusions after Mumbai attacks (over Lahore/Sialkot and Kashmir sectors), implying that a well-rehearsed strike was to be executed. It is also possible that IAF intruded on more than one locations over Muzaffarabad sector. The strike formation allegedly flew from Gwalior AFB (home of IAF Mirage-2000s). The payload ejection story checks out, as the point of impact seems to be 18NM further ahead of the intrusion distance (4-5NM from LoC). Claims of hundreds of causalities have been denied, and media has been encouraged to verify the on-ground facts independently. A 'surprise' has been promised.
Personal views:
On PAF's immediate response: It is important to realize the reality of the situation. It is not possible to have entire squadrons up for CAP all the time. The closest PAF bases (Chaklala, Kamra) are a good 100km away, and it takes time (8-10 mins at best) for the CAP unit to arrive if the one already in air has been diverted. The IAF knew that and timed the intrusions quite well. Moreover, the IAF strike package probably remained below radar horizon behind the mountains, flying very low over the Kashmir Valley and popping up 20NM away from LoC, allowing for the intrusion to occur without being intercepted.
On independent verification of events: Military and civilian satellites from different nations will take images of the said region soon, and independent & neutral third parties will verify what happened at the impact point(s). 2000lbs LGBs are no joke, expect visible damage regardless of the presence of any infrastructure. If a IAF hit something (i.e. a JeM camp), it will be clearly visible. If not, then craters in the hillsides (as shown by DG ISPR) will also be visible. This is a very risky gamble for any party who is lying here.
On Pakistani retaliation options: Regardless of any damage, violating Pakistani airspace and releasing explosive payload on Pakistani soil is considered an act of aggression. However, the retaliatory options for Pakistan are somewhat limited. Since Pakistan denies anybody or anything being hit, its hard to decide a careful response. The options can be theoretically as follows:
-No significant response, since nothing was hit. Military retaliation by PA using artillery across LoC. Diplomatic retaliation for the act of releasing bombs over Pakistani soil.
-Covert response, of a larger scale via Kashmiri militants.
-Proportionate response, i.e. intrusion over Indian airspace, with no intention of engagement unless challenged.
-Escalatory response, by targeting the closest IAF base (e.g. Awantipora), using standoff weapons. The entire armed forces will have to be mobilized before such an event, including the SFCs.
On expected escalation and nuclear-standoff: Deterrence remains effective only if strike options have been well exercised and available to be executed. Both nations have the same relative operational capability in this regard. If the situation escalates, expect Pakistan to mobilize the conventional and nuclear forces. The SFCs might hold missile drills as the escalation continues, and a similar response should be expected from Indian SFCs.
All being said, sanity MUST prevail. The prospects nuclear war between the two countries must not be taken lightly. Millions of people will perish for no reason if things go south.
EDIT:
Possible IAF strike package's flight path:
YELLOW: Probable that IAF exploited valleys and airspace in the cover of mountains to remain undetected until the final pop-up, which seems to have occurred close to LoC. The specific point of crossing is Tangdhar (as told by DG ISPR)
RED: The probable path over which IAF violated Pakistani airspace (up to 5NM = 9km)
WHITE: Path taken by the payloads (2000lbs LGBs or 2000lbs SPICE munitions) (up to 20 NM = 37km)
GREEN: Area of impact (Jaba, as stated by DG ISPR).
BLUE: Retreat path.
So far this illustration satisfies both versions of the story, except what exactly the weapons hit, in addition to forest area.
1. IAF intended to intrude at Lahore/Sialkot and Bahawalpur/Okarasectors simultaneously, met by CAP units on the Pakistani side of the border. However no intrusions took place in those sectors.
2. A third, larger formation approached from Tangdhar and intruded over the Muzaffarabad sector, 4-5NM across LoC. Upon being challenged, they released their weapons payload (4x) on a trajectory, which landed in an unpopulated forested area close to Jabba.
3. During this episode, it was difficult to assess damage and hence engage the enemy. The IAF did not engage PAF and retreated, therefore was not engaged.
4. The forces on ground later assessed what happened exactly. We will retaliate against this act of aggression.
Suggests that diversion tactics were employed to lure the CAP units away, however it seems was met by enough amount of PAF interceptors. The IAF strategy seems to be a repeat of the 2008 intrusions after Mumbai attacks (over Lahore/Sialkot and Kashmir sectors), implying that a well-rehearsed strike was to be executed. It is also possible that IAF intruded on more than one locations over Muzaffarabad sector. The strike formation allegedly flew from Gwalior AFB (home of IAF Mirage-2000s). The payload ejection story checks out, as the point of impact seems to be 18NM further ahead of the intrusion distance (4-5NM from LoC). Claims of hundreds of causalities have been denied, and media has been encouraged to verify the on-ground facts independently. A 'surprise' has been promised.
Personal views:
On PAF's immediate response: It is important to realize the reality of the situation. It is not possible to have entire squadrons up for CAP all the time. The closest PAF bases (Chaklala, Kamra) are a good 100km away, and it takes time (8-10 mins at best) for the CAP unit to arrive if the one already in air has been diverted. The IAF knew that and timed the intrusions quite well. Moreover, the IAF strike package probably remained below radar horizon behind the mountains, flying very low over the Kashmir Valley and popping up 20NM away from LoC, allowing for the intrusion to occur without being intercepted.
On independent verification of events: Military and civilian satellites from different nations will take images of the said region soon, and independent & neutral third parties will verify what happened at the impact point(s). 2000lbs LGBs are no joke, expect visible damage regardless of the presence of any infrastructure. If a IAF hit something (i.e. a JeM camp), it will be clearly visible. If not, then craters in the hillsides (as shown by DG ISPR) will also be visible. This is a very risky gamble for any party who is lying here.
On Pakistani retaliation options: Regardless of any damage, violating Pakistani airspace and releasing explosive payload on Pakistani soil is considered an act of aggression. However, the retaliatory options for Pakistan are somewhat limited. Since Pakistan denies anybody or anything being hit, its hard to decide a careful response. The options can be theoretically as follows:
-No significant response, since nothing was hit. Military retaliation by PA using artillery across LoC. Diplomatic retaliation for the act of releasing bombs over Pakistani soil.
-Covert response, of a larger scale via Kashmiri militants.
-Proportionate response, i.e. intrusion over Indian airspace, with no intention of engagement unless challenged.
-Escalatory response, by targeting the closest IAF base (e.g. Awantipora), using standoff weapons. The entire armed forces will have to be mobilized before such an event, including the SFCs.
On expected escalation and nuclear-standoff: Deterrence remains effective only if strike options have been well exercised and available to be executed. Both nations have the same relative operational capability in this regard. If the situation escalates, expect Pakistan to mobilize the conventional and nuclear forces. The SFCs might hold missile drills as the escalation continues, and a similar response should be expected from Indian SFCs.
All being said, sanity MUST prevail. The prospects nuclear war between the two countries must not be taken lightly. Millions of people will perish for no reason if things go south.
EDIT:
Possible IAF strike package's flight path:
YELLOW: Probable that IAF exploited valleys and airspace in the cover of mountains to remain undetected until the final pop-up, which seems to have occurred close to LoC. The specific point of crossing is Tangdhar (as told by DG ISPR)
RED: The probable path over which IAF violated Pakistani airspace (up to 5NM = 9km)
WHITE: Path taken by the payloads (2000lbs LGBs or 2000lbs SPICE munitions) (up to 20 NM = 37km)
GREEN: Area of impact (Jaba, as stated by DG ISPR).
BLUE: Retreat path.
So far this illustration satisfies both versions of the story, except what exactly the weapons hit, in addition to forest area.
Last edited:
