As I have said before, IMF program is akin to putting bandage on a bullet wound while letting the shooter to roam free.
With respect to this particular program, IMF has put in a requirement that friends of Pakistan have to step up to fulfill USD funding shortfall since IMF loan is largely for signaling purpose. Most resource importing countries have a USD funding requirement which is met by tapping commercial sources i.e. banks and investment vehicles. Pakistan had access to this market until Dollar Dar stepped up to the plate.
Before opening up their purse, investors want too ensure that they will get their money back at the end of the contract. When dealing with Dar, investors know that they are dealing with probably the biggest fraudiya that exists on a global stage. Hence no dice, which in turn explains Pakistan's declining reserves and multiple notch ratings downgrade.
Because Pakistan does not have access to commercial markets, IMF wants friendly countries to take their place. IMF needs this surety because IMF will only get its money back if other entities are willing to lend to Pak. This is a chicken and egg problem because, friendly countries also know that, given Pakistan's precarious position, they run the risk of losing their capital if they lend to Pak.
Pak was in the same situation at the beginning of PTI's term in 2018. Back then, IK and his team managed to convince Saudis, Khaleejis and Chinese to cough up USD6bn which decreased IMF's leverage over Pak. IMF's response was to get Bajwa to fire Asad Umar and appoint Hafeez Pasha who is IMF's man in Pak.
What is different in 2023 is that allies are not willing to do what they did around five years ago. It should be obvious that the Chinese were not happy with RCO which they recognize was against their interest. That ghaddar Bajwa spelt it out himself in so many words. So they are staying on the sidelines. In fact if rumours are to be believed, Chinese have pulled defense attache and close counseler services.
It is incredible to watch the suffering of millions of people due to the greed of a small subset of elite. But the people themselves were taking for a ride by the elite who portrayed Dollar Dar as second coming of Warren Buffet and doofus Nawaz as reincarnation of Salahuddin.
Human actions are impossible to predict. But one fact has stood the test of time. Expect chutya outcomes when you select chutia leaders.
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