Is Pakistani students are safe in China? Let me know your opinion

[KhanBaba2]

Where did you come up with 14 day quarantine? Each Infectious disease has its own Quarantine period.

Please read the post I was replying to. The 14 days period is written their.

 

[KhanBaba2]

Firstly, people are assuming that "quarantine" means testing by PCR. It does not. Thousands are returning. Not all can be tested. Quarantine means isolation of high risk cases and monitoring and then testing IF clinical symptoms develop.

As per CDC guidance USA, which is the most readable of all the global protocols:

"For the evaluation of patients who may be ill with or who may have been exposed to 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

1. Identify if in the past 14 days since first onset of symptoms a history of either travel to china or close contact with a person known to have 2019-nCoV illness*
2. AND the person has fever or symptoms of lower respiratory illness (e.g., cough or shortness of breath)

if both exposure and illness are present

1. Isolate

• Place facemask on patient
• Isolate the patient in a private room or a separate area
• Wear appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE)

1. Assess clinical status.

EXAM

Is fever present?

Subjective?

Measured? _____°C/F

Is respiratory illness present?

Cough?

Shortness of breath?

1. Inform

• Contact health department to report at-risk patients and their clinical status
• Assess need to collect specimen"

It is now apparent, though admittedly not in a lot of published peer reviewed data, that a patient may be infected and have zero symptoms and hence evade testing even whether quarantined or outside of the quarantine programme.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/09/c_138768822.htm

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...8339/does-the-new-coronavirus-spread-silently




The article in this thread says there are some studies which suggest the incubation period may be above 14 days.

A Chinese paper mentioned a case at 24 days but admittedly WHO regarded this as either spurious or a case of 're-infection'.

Nevertheless the above points highlight at least uncertainty about both asymptomatic cases causing spread and length of incubation period. That is sufficient doubt for a third world nation with third world infrastructure and third world population dynamics to play safe - hence Pakistan is playing reasonably safe. Keep in mind the pcr test still can give false negatives anyway so no point placing all eggs in that basket either.

As another poster mentioned, Pakistan is a place where some mullah might declare war on healthcare workers tomorrow, so caution is the correct approach. Now India has different pressures, vote grabbing and the like, hence Modi has taken the opposite approach. BJP has, as expected, aimed to exploit Pakistani citizens in Wuhan to grab votes. Time will tell if the decision to bring Indians home was made in haste.

Now many people are back in India and outside the quarantine programme if they came from outside of Wuhan, do you assume they will tell the truth about symptoms? A case in Pakistan of someone masking his symptoms with anti-inflammatories is well known. Why would an average bread winning Indian volunteer himself for quarantine if he can dodge it?

During the leprosy outbreak in USA last century, such dodging was well documented.

Bottom line for me is that an outbreak in Wuhan is better controllable than one in Lahore or Lucknow. Quarantine and testing is easy enough almost anywhere. It's controlling the outbreak that's hard.

Fyi, even the mighty British have lapsed in their quarantine procedures -
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-berkshire-51355255

As you say Quarantine, Testing by PCR are two different things.

Also controlling an outbreak is a completely different thing.

Quarantine was for people that we brought back from Wuhan. Pakistan is safer than India as they did not bring back anyone. But quarantine will restrict the disease. At worst they will infect one another. They are not going to be infecting the rest of India.

To try to prevent an outbreak, we are scanning passengers and are stopping flights from China. This is not foolproof. But it will decrease the incidents of spreading. People in India are going to get infected just like people from Pakistan are going to get infected. But the coronavirus has a window. That's called the flu season. In India, the flu season should be over in March or early April depending on the weather. After that it will peter our and come back next year. That has been the behavior of all coronavirus till date. And next year it will be far less virulent. Till some year it will be just another flu.

To play safe you have to also stop flights from infected places. You are not doing that. You are following a far riskier path by allowing flights from China. How are you going to cope with infected people coming in that do not have symptoms. There is a much larger chance of a passenger coming from China having the infection that of a passenger coming from elsewhere.

 

[masterchief_mirza]

As you say Quarantine, Testing by PCR are two different things.

Also controlling an outbreak is a completely different thing.

Quarantine was for people that we brought back from Wuhan. Pakistan is safer than India as they did not bring back anyone. But quarantine will restrict the disease. At worst they will infect one another. They are not going to be infecting the rest of India.

To try to prevent an outbreak, we are scanning passengers and are stopping flights from China. This is not foolproof. But it will decrease the incidents of spreading. People in India are going to get infected just like people from Pakistan are going to get infected. But the coronavirus has a window. That's called the flu season. In India, the flu season should be over in March or early April depending on the weather. After that it will peter our and come back next year. That has been the behavior of all coronavirus till date. And next year it will be far less virulent. Till some year it will be just another flu.

To play safe you have to also stop flights from infected places. You are not doing that. You are following a far riskier path by allowing flights from China. How are you going to cope with infected people coming in that do not have symptoms. There is a much larger chance of a passenger coming from China having the infection that of a passenger coming from elsewhere.

Fair point but as I understand it, the 14 day symptom free period is mandatory prior to departure from anywhere in China. It's up to the Chinese to ensure they monitor the travellers from other parts of China to Pakistan properly. I assume they're doing just that.

You're right that whatever steps Pakistan and India take or don't take, the virus will take hold. Hopefully, it is flu-like in its nature and lethality. We still don't know enough.

I'm also sceptical of Indian quarantine flights where pictures showed that passengers removed masks and snacked happily with minimal protective measures. What was the point of calling it a quarantine flight? Why not just call it a chartered flight?

Like I said, unavoidable population dynamics place our nations at risk of an outbreak and of the rapid spread of an outbreak.

There's a Vietnam thread showing what a quarantine flight should look like. Worth looking at that and comparing it with the pictures on Indian social media.

 

[RescueRanger]

Poll is missing an option:

Option 4 mind your own business [x]