Is Pakistani students are safe in China? Let me know your opinion

[I S I]

Totally agreed, but if I am driving my car 100KM/h and during the car drive, I will not press break pads to stop.

however, i will say that 'Zindagi aur mout Allah ke haath main hai'.......... Then what you will say about my decision.

Zindagi aur mout Allah ke haath main hai. Allah marhoom ki maghfirat farmae.

 

[Zulfiqar]

A former neighbor who was a junior in school is currently in a research program in Nanjing (Around 600 KM away from wuhan). He has been posting happily on FB and is sticking there and is not facing any problems.

Our landlord's son came from china recently a few days ago. His semester was postponed and the uni asked everyone to work from home. So he came back to live here in the meanwhile to spend time with family.

Individual preferences vary.

The problem is that we can't even control polio and dengue. How are we supposed to tackle this virus.

China has much better facilities and from what i read they are being looked after. The situation would not be the same here as our local hospitals won't be sticking to quarantine protocols as good as china.

 

[masterchief_mirza]

A slowdown in the increase in reported cases over the past few days is “meaningful,” according to Lipkin, who recently returned to the US from China, where he was advising on the outbreak. He spoke with journalists during a 14-day home quarantine.

If measures taken so far to contain the outbreak are effective, some “dramatic reductions” in infections should be observed in the third or fourth weeks of February, he said. Warmer, early-spring weather might also impede transmission, he said.

Some studies indicate an infected person may not display symptoms for 14 days or more, with testing and confirmation of cases adding to delays. This will prolong the time it will take to identify whether China’s unprecedented disease-control measures have worked.

Many Indians are spouting propaganda without actually knowing the first thing about what is actually going on with this disease.

If someone has no symptoms, they won't get tested by PCR, hence they won't be confirmed as having the virus or not.

Now, imagine someone who is young and fit on that return flight to Delhi, so fit in fact that he has the virus but shows no identifiable symptoms. What happens to him? He doesn't get tested. Nobody will know he has the virus. And this particular virus can behave in this way - it can infect and produce no symptoms. Also, it can produce symptoms after the 14 day quarantine/observation period.

So, our silent carrier from Wuhan has returned and the doctors see no infection signs so release him into the wild. In India, he infects dozens through contact, sneezing, poor hygiene, living in overcrowded conditions, going about his normal business, not washing his hands after sneezing over himself..the usual story.

This is how this infection spreads. Both India and Pakistan have similar limitations in terms of population structure.

It is a lie that Pakistan is lagging behind in tech or facilities or expertise. We can quarantine a few thousand if necessary in some remote military base. But it will not ELIMINATE THE THREAT of this particular virus spreading in Pakistan. When those evacuees return to their towns from quarantine, they may still infect people without ever having shown symptoms themselves. Until you comprehend this, you cannot understand why Pakistan has exercised caution. Ironically, if the streets of Wuhan are deserted and everyone is locked inside, they have less chance of catching the virus than if a few symptom-free vectors are running around freely in Delhi or rawalpindi.

Keep in mind also that while Pakistan can conduct a quarantine and diagnostics programme (those who suggest otherwise are lying), a major viral outbreak is a different matter and Pakistan would struggle to contain that because of our population characteristics and infrastructure.

The only possible solution theoretically would be to PCR test everyone returning from Wuhan but practically this can't be done (and nobody is doing it) because while waiting for results you somehow need to keep thousands of people separate from each other to avert the risk of them infecting each other if they are carriers. It will take weeks to process thousands of results. Moreover there will still be false negatives, so even this solution is not a solution.

Leave them in Wuhan - it is effectively a quarantine camp if you realise how locked down individuals are in Wuhan.

Here is how I believe this will play out. The outbreak will spike and plateau. It will then either subside or alternatively persist, with seasonal flu-like outbreaks becoming the norm. Once we reach a point where we understand that it is basically like the flu in its behaviour and lethality, Pakistanis will come home and the risk will become acceptable for Pakistan. Those Pakistanis stuck in Wuhan who bravely accepted their situation will be rightly praised.

 

[KhanBaba2]

Zindagi aur mout Allah ke haath main hai. Allah marhoom ki maghfirat farmae.

Sab kuch Allah ke haath main he. To kya aap haat pe haat rakh ke baithenge.

Kashmir Pakistan ka hoga ya India ka, yeh bhi Allah ke haath main he.

 

[M.Bison]

Since, Virus Infection is increasing day by day. Being a human you people don't think that A normal people should not stay/live at infected place.

if anyone is not infected by the virus then he should moved to safer place?

It is a heart breaking if you not infected and you forcefully asked to stay in Infected place. if also a painful when you speak with your family and your mother will cry because of your safety concerns.

If Bangladesh/India can evaluate people and kept them in quarantine place, then why not Pakistan?

After reading below news..... I am very much worry about Pakistan students. Now people from Pakistan will take on different way but really, it does not matter for me as of now, we are Indian or Pakistani..... we are a human...

China is doing best to control on this situation and I don't blame to them but their people can't relocate to other countries but we can save our students because they are our responsibility.

Coronavirus death toll rises over 1,000
https://www.accuweather.com/en/heal...ntinues-to-rise-97-fatalities-in-a-day/678305


A British man who contracted the new coronavirus on a business trip appears to have spread the virus to 11 other people.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-uk-superspreader.html


https://www.straitstimes.com/singap...ners-and-open-windows-to-reduce-risk-of-being




Coronavirus may infect up to 500000 in Wuhan before it peaks
Experts are predicting a mid-to-late February peak of the virus.
Jason Gale, Bloomberg / 10 February 2020 08:00
1

A man by bicycles past an empty street on February 8, 2020 in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Image: Bloomberg
The new coronavirus might have infected at least 500 000 people in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicentre of the global outbreak, by the time it peaks in coming weeks.

The typically bustling megacity, where the so-called 2019-nCoV virus emerged late last year, has been in effective lockdown since January 23, restricting the movement of 11 million people. Recent trends in reported cases in Wuhan broadly support the preliminary mathematical modelling the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine is using to predict the epidemic’s transmission dynamics.

“Assuming current trends continue, we’re still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak” of virus cases in Wuhan, Adam Kucharski, an associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology, said by email Sunday. “There’s a lot of uncertainty, so I’m cautious about picking out a single value for the peak, but it’s possible based on current data we might see a peak prevalence over 5%.”

That would potentially mean at least 1 in 20 people would have been infected in the city by the time the epidemic peaks, Kucharski said, adding that this may change if transmission patterns slow in coming days. The prediction doesn’t indicate a coming surge in cases in Wuhan, but that the current cumulative total doesn’t reflect all infections, especially mild ones, that have occurred.

Health authorities in China and around the world are anxiously waiting to know whether the world’s largest known quarantine effort has been effective in containing the pneumonia-causing virus in Wuhan and across other cities in Hubei province, a landlocked region of 60 million people.



Kucharski, whose research focuses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, and colleagues have based their modelling on a range of assumptions about the 2019-nCoV virus. These include an incubation period of 5.2 days, a delay from the onset of symptoms to confirmation of infection of 6.1 days, and about 10 million people being at risk of infection in Wuhan.

Based on that, a prevalence of 5% equates to about 500 000 cumulative infections. That’s many times more than the 16 902 cases provincial health authorities had counted in Wuhan as of midnight Sunday.

Researchers will gauge the proportion of people in the population who have been infected with 2019-nCoV after a test becomes available that enables them to conduct a so-called serosurvey to identify those whose blood contains antibodies produced in response to exposure to the virus.

Currently, the true number of people in Wuhan exposed to the virus “may be vastly underestimated,” Manuel Battegay and colleagues at the University of Basel in Switzerland said in a study published Friday. “With a focus on thousands of serious cases, mild or asymptomatic courses that possibly account for the bulk of the 2019-nCoV infections might remain largely unrecognised, in particular during the influenza season.”

Authorities in China have counted more than 37 000 cases — of which more than 800 have been fatal — over the past two months. That has surpassed the 774 fatalities from the 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, over eight months, according to the World Health Organisation.

Mild symptoms

In the first 17 000 or so cases, about 82% are mild, 15% severe and 3% critical, the WHO said Friday. Of 138 patients admitted to Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in the first four weeks of January, 26% were placed in intensive care and 4.3% died, a study in the Journal of the American Medical Association published Friday found.

While the fast-moving, infectious coronavirus has caused thousands of people to fall gravely ill and overwhelm hospitals, once researchers understand the full spectrum of illness associated with the virus, the overall case-fatality risk is likely to be much less than 1%, said Ian Lipkin, director of the Centre for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health in New York.

People with mild or no apparent symptoms aren’t currently being counted among cases, he told reporters Sunday. A slowdown in the increase in reported cases over the past few days is “meaningful,” according to Lipkin, who recently returned to the US from China, where he was advising on the outbreak. He spoke with journalists during a 14-day home quarantine.

If measures taken so far to contain the outbreak are effective, some “dramatic reductions” in infections should be observed in the third or fourth weeks of February, he said. Warmer, early-spring weather might also impede transmission, he said.

Some studies indicate an infected person may not display symptoms for 14 days or more, with testing and confirmation of cases adding to delays. This will prolong the time it will take to identify whether China’s unprecedented disease-control measures have worked.

“The next two weeks are really critical to understand what’s been happening,” said Benjamin Cowling, head of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Hong Kong, in an interview in Melbourne on Thursday. “And, is this going to spread into other locations, or have we avoided what could be a global pandemic because of the control measures that have been implemented to date?”

The number of cases reported in Wuhan and across Hubei province has been tracking downward over the past several days.

“There has been a stabilisation in the number of cases reported from Hubei, and we’re in a four-day stable period where the number of reported cases hasn’t advanced,” Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, told reporters in Geneva Saturday. “That’s good news and may reflect the impact of the control measures that have been put in place.”

Watch and wait

There has been a “low, but steady incidence” of infections in places outside Hubei, Ryan said. It’s unclear which of those provinces may control the disease or where it might escalate, he said.

“We hope that the same stabilisation that appears to be occurring in Wuhan also occurs outside,” Ryan said. “But, again it’s very, very, very early to make any predictions about numbers.”

“This is still a very intense disease outbreak in Wuhan and Hubei, and there are still great risks in practically all of the other provinces, so we will wait and see,” he said.

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fas...nfect-up-to-500-000-in-wuhan-before-it-peaks/
https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/coronavirus-may-infect-over-500k-in-wuhan-before-it-peaks-study-says/

Why are you concerned? What is the best way to contain a viral outbreak? It is not drinking cow piss and rubbing cow dung in your cunt..

 

[KhanBaba2]

Now, imagine someone who is young and fit on that return flight to Delhi, so fit in fact that he has the virus but shows no identifiable symptoms. What happens to him? He doesn't get tested. Nobody will know he has the virus. And this particular virus can behave in this way - it can infect and produce no symptoms. Also, it can produce symptoms after the 14 day quarantine/observation period.

They are not released. They go to quarantine.

Can you show a link which says 14 day quarantine is not enough.

 

[American Pakistani]

Pakistan is a poor country and it doesn't have any resources or facilities to treat such an outbreak. Secondly we have nut case mulla who will claim all vaccines are haram and should not be given to Pakistanis(hint polio). We are one of the only TWO countries who still have polio disease. At least when China have first world health care facilities and resources and it can treat few thousand Pakistani students with ease.

Both from Islamic and from logical point of view, it is a great decision by govt of Pakistan.

 

[Uguduwa]

As a matter if fact India has no business with Pakistani students. All of this is not because Indians sympathize with Pakistani students but for chest thumping. If you have to use a disaster for propaganda then it shows how small your self esteem is.

 

[American Pakistani]

As a matter if fact India has no business with Pakistani students. All of this is not because Indians sympathize with Pakistani students but for chest thumping. If you have to use a disaster for propaganda then it shows how small your self esteem is.

They cannot handle their own country and their ministers and media are chest thumping 24/7 talking about Pakistani students issue.

Unlike India, we in Pakistan don't live in imaginary bubbles that we are Supa pawa.

 

[Uguduwa]

They cannot handle their own country and their ministers and media are chest thumping 24/7 talking about Pakistani students issue.

Unlike India, we in Pakistan don't live in imaginary bubbles that we are Supa pawa.

They will benefit a lot by minding their own business but no so many issues in their country but they are too busy living superpowa fantasy.

 

[terry5]

Free tv nice warm place hot cooked meals drinking smoking getting away from the wife and kids just relaxing and all all for free

where can I book my two weeks at quarantine ?

.
.
.
.
No don’t offer this to Pakistanis they’ll never leave the damn place

 

[masterchief_mirza]

They are not released. They go to quarantine.

Can you show a link which says 14 day quarantine is not enough.

Firstly, people are assuming that "quarantine" means testing by PCR. It does not. Thousands are returning. Not all can be tested. Quarantine means isolation of high risk cases and monitoring and then testing IF clinical symptoms develop.

As per CDC guidance USA, which is the most readable of all the global protocols:

"For the evaluation of patients who may be ill with or who may have been exposed to 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

1. Identify if in the past 14 days since first onset of symptoms a history of either travel to china or close contact with a person known to have 2019-nCoV illness*
2. AND the person has fever or symptoms of lower respiratory illness (e.g., cough or shortness of breath)

if both exposure and illness are present

1. Isolate

• Place facemask on patient
• Isolate the patient in a private room or a separate area
• Wear appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE)

1. Assess clinical status.

EXAM

Is fever present?

Subjective?

Measured? _____°C/F

Is respiratory illness present?

Cough?

Shortness of breath?

1. Inform

• Contact health department to report at-risk patients and their clinical status
• Assess need to collect specimen"

It is now apparent, though admittedly not in a lot of published peer reviewed data, that a patient may be infected and have zero symptoms and hence evade testing even whether quarantined or outside of the quarantine programme.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/09/c_138768822.htm

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...8339/does-the-new-coronavirus-spread-silently




The article in this thread says there are some studies which suggest the incubation period may be above 14 days.

A Chinese paper mentioned a case at 24 days but admittedly WHO regarded this as either spurious or a case of 're-infection'.

Nevertheless the above points highlight at least uncertainty about both asymptomatic cases causing spread and length of incubation period. That is sufficient doubt for a third world nation with third world infrastructure and third world population dynamics to play safe - hence Pakistan is playing reasonably safe. Keep in mind the pcr test still can give false negatives anyway so no point placing all eggs in that basket either.

As another poster mentioned, Pakistan is a place where some mullah might declare war on healthcare workers tomorrow, so caution is the correct approach. Now India has different pressures, vote grabbing and the like, hence Modi has taken the opposite approach. BJP has, as expected, aimed to exploit Pakistani citizens in Wuhan to grab votes. Time will tell if the decision to bring Indians home was made in haste.

Now many people are back in India and outside the quarantine programme if they came from outside of Wuhan, do you assume they will tell the truth about symptoms? A case in Pakistan of someone masking his symptoms with anti-inflammatories is well known. Why would an average bread winning Indian volunteer himself for quarantine if he can dodge it?

During the leprosy outbreak in USA last century, such dodging was well documented.

Bottom line for me is that an outbreak in Wuhan is better controllable than one in Lahore or Lucknow. Quarantine and testing is easy enough almost anywhere. It's controlling the outbreak that's hard.

Fyi, even the mighty British have lapsed in their quarantine procedures -
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-berkshire-51355255

 

[Jamie Brooks]

I can’t say for the same for the students in wuhan but the rest of pakistani students all around china are doing fine although there was alot of tough time during the chinese new year along with the virus... shops were closed for 2 weeks straight... i came back to pakistan a week ago and last i heard from my classmates still their some shops have opened but majority are still closed... as for university classes they are postponed indefinitely until our laoshi gives us the green we are not to return... they are saying anyone who comes back early will be expelled 0.0

 

[Basel]

Since, Virus Infection is increasing day by day. Being a human you people don't think that A normal people should not stay/live at infected place.

if anyone is not infected by the virus then he should moved to safer place?

It is a heart breaking if you not infected and you forcefully asked to stay in Infected place. if also a painful when you speak with your family and your mother will cry because of your safety concerns.

If Bangladesh/India can evaluate people and kept them in quarantine place, then why not Pakistan?

After reading below news..... I am very much worry about Pakistan students. Now people from Pakistan will take on different way but really, it does not matter for me as of now, we are Indian or Pakistani..... we are a human...

China is doing best to control on this situation and I don't blame to them but their people can't relocate to other countries but we can save our students because they are our responsibility.

Coronavirus death toll rises over 1,000
https://www.accuweather.com/en/heal...ntinues-to-rise-97-fatalities-in-a-day/678305


A British man who contracted the new coronavirus on a business trip appears to have spread the virus to 11 other people.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-uk-superspreader.html


https://www.straitstimes.com/singap...ners-and-open-windows-to-reduce-risk-of-being




Coronavirus may infect up to 500000 in Wuhan before it peaks
Experts are predicting a mid-to-late February peak of the virus.
Jason Gale, Bloomberg / 10 February 2020 08:00
1

A man by bicycles past an empty street on February 8, 2020 in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Image: Bloomberg
The new coronavirus might have infected at least 500 000 people in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicentre of the global outbreak, by the time it peaks in coming weeks.

The typically bustling megacity, where the so-called 2019-nCoV virus emerged late last year, has been in effective lockdown since January 23, restricting the movement of 11 million people. Recent trends in reported cases in Wuhan broadly support the preliminary mathematical modelling the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine is using to predict the epidemic’s transmission dynamics.

“Assuming current trends continue, we’re still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak” of virus cases in Wuhan, Adam Kucharski, an associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology, said by email Sunday. “There’s a lot of uncertainty, so I’m cautious about picking out a single value for the peak, but it’s possible based on current data we might see a peak prevalence over 5%.”

That would potentially mean at least 1 in 20 people would have been infected in the city by the time the epidemic peaks, Kucharski said, adding that this may change if transmission patterns slow in coming days. The prediction doesn’t indicate a coming surge in cases in Wuhan, but that the current cumulative total doesn’t reflect all infections, especially mild ones, that have occurred.

Health authorities in China and around the world are anxiously waiting to know whether the world’s largest known quarantine effort has been effective in containing the pneumonia-causing virus in Wuhan and across other cities in Hubei province, a landlocked region of 60 million people.



Kucharski, whose research focuses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, and colleagues have based their modelling on a range of assumptions about the 2019-nCoV virus. These include an incubation period of 5.2 days, a delay from the onset of symptoms to confirmation of infection of 6.1 days, and about 10 million people being at risk of infection in Wuhan.

Based on that, a prevalence of 5% equates to about 500 000 cumulative infections. That’s many times more than the 16 902 cases provincial health authorities had counted in Wuhan as of midnight Sunday.

Researchers will gauge the proportion of people in the population who have been infected with 2019-nCoV after a test becomes available that enables them to conduct a so-called serosurvey to identify those whose blood contains antibodies produced in response to exposure to the virus.

Currently, the true number of people in Wuhan exposed to the virus “may be vastly underestimated,” Manuel Battegay and colleagues at the University of Basel in Switzerland said in a study published Friday. “With a focus on thousands of serious cases, mild or asymptomatic courses that possibly account for the bulk of the 2019-nCoV infections might remain largely unrecognised, in particular during the influenza season.”

Authorities in China have counted more than 37 000 cases — of which more than 800 have been fatal — over the past two months. That has surpassed the 774 fatalities from the 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, over eight months, according to the World Health Organisation.

Mild symptoms

In the first 17 000 or so cases, about 82% are mild, 15% severe and 3% critical, the WHO said Friday. Of 138 patients admitted to Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in the first four weeks of January, 26% were placed in intensive care and 4.3% died, a study in the Journal of the American Medical Association published Friday found.

While the fast-moving, infectious coronavirus has caused thousands of people to fall gravely ill and overwhelm hospitals, once researchers understand the full spectrum of illness associated with the virus, the overall case-fatality risk is likely to be much less than 1%, said Ian Lipkin, director of the Centre for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health in New York.

People with mild or no apparent symptoms aren’t currently being counted among cases, he told reporters Sunday. A slowdown in the increase in reported cases over the past few days is “meaningful,” according to Lipkin, who recently returned to the US from China, where he was advising on the outbreak. He spoke with journalists during a 14-day home quarantine.

If measures taken so far to contain the outbreak are effective, some “dramatic reductions” in infections should be observed in the third or fourth weeks of February, he said. Warmer, early-spring weather might also impede transmission, he said.

Some studies indicate an infected person may not display symptoms for 14 days or more, with testing and confirmation of cases adding to delays. This will prolong the time it will take to identify whether China’s unprecedented disease-control measures have worked.

“The next two weeks are really critical to understand what’s been happening,” said Benjamin Cowling, head of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Hong Kong, in an interview in Melbourne on Thursday. “And, is this going to spread into other locations, or have we avoided what could be a global pandemic because of the control measures that have been implemented to date?”

The number of cases reported in Wuhan and across Hubei province has been tracking downward over the past several days.

“There has been a stabilisation in the number of cases reported from Hubei, and we’re in a four-day stable period where the number of reported cases hasn’t advanced,” Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, told reporters in Geneva Saturday. “That’s good news and may reflect the impact of the control measures that have been put in place.”

Watch and wait

There has been a “low, but steady incidence” of infections in places outside Hubei, Ryan said. It’s unclear which of those provinces may control the disease or where it might escalate, he said.

“We hope that the same stabilisation that appears to be occurring in Wuhan also occurs outside,” Ryan said. “But, again it’s very, very, very early to make any predictions about numbers.”

“This is still a very intense disease outbreak in Wuhan and Hubei, and there are still great risks in practically all of the other provinces, so we will wait and see,” he said.

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fas...nfect-up-to-500-000-in-wuhan-before-it-peaks/
https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/coronavirus-may-infect-over-500k-in-wuhan-before-it-peaks-study-says/

Why you Indians are so obsessed with Pakistan, no one in Pakistan asked your opinion or help for Pakistani students in China.

Kindly mind your own business, and kindly bring your own country in order first where a criminal, terrorist and fascist is PM.

 

[M.Bison]

They are not released. They go to quarantine.

Can you show a link which says 14 day quarantine is not enough.

Where did you come up with 14 day quarantine? Each Infectious disease has its own Quarantine period.